To wonder how you're voting in the Scottish Referendum and why?

[deeedeee]

a month away from the vote thought it would be interesting to ask

( no bunfighting , derision or soundbites please. just yes or no and why. feel free to post more than once with different reasons. No links unless independent fact or opinion, nothing from the official campaigns)

I'm a YES

because Westminster's failed to protect the vunerable and the UK's me first politics have taken us down a particularly nasty path. An independent Scotland leans towards to left and can potentially choose a better route. And if a change happens in scotland then I think that that could inspire a change in the direction of politics in the rest of the UK.

I've always voted SNP but that was because I wanted a referendum, and if we get a Yes I will probably vote Green in future

As I said up thread, my DSis is currently leaning towards a yes, but one of the things that really worries her is that many people who have previously voted SNP because they wanted the referendum may indeed vote differently afterwards. If all of them were to vote green, that would not be a concern, but she suspects that some SNP voters are much more right wing. Would be a bummer to get rid of the Tories in Westminster only to find your own right-wingers in Scotland!

I don't think the precedent would be accepted by rUK. My sense (in SE England) is that most people think:

that the referendum is a "good thing". Let's get this question sorted for a generation.
that the Union should be preserved. Together, since 1707 we've built (on a small island on the Northern fringes of Europe) the sixth largest economy in the world and seen off Napoleon, Hitler etc. etc etc
that if Scotland vote Yes they can fuck off.

In other words it's my guess that the pool of goodwill would evaporate very quickly.

NC but I have been on Mumsnet for a while, I promise!

I will be voting Yes because I think it is important for Scotland to have a government it votes for. Over the past 50 years, Scottish votes have affected the outcome of a general election a handful of times. Sometimes the overall election has reflected Scottish votes but if you subtracted the Scottish seats you would almost always have had the same outcome (as an aside this means it's unlikely that independence would doom an rUK to a permanent Conservative majority). What this means politically is that there is literally no motivation for a party to do anything to try to win Scottish votes, because they don't matter. Policies are made that are targeted at winning voters in the regions that will make the most difference; Scotland doesn't, so policies and manifesto promises are not made with Scotland in mind. In an independent Scotland, politicians would have to win Scottish votes, so policies and promises would be made with the needs of this distinctive country in mind.

I wrote a blog post a few months ago about how I hoped that whatever people voted, they would be voting for a positive reason, and with a desire to ensure that the positive outcome they're voting for actually comes into being. (For example, many of the non-SNP "Yes" groups - Greens for Yes, etc! - will have work to do after a potential Yes vote making sure their voice is heard in negotiations). Have a read if you fancy: womenforindependencenefife.weebly.com/blog/vote-for-positivity

Two other brief thoughts. I've been in awe of the grass-roots Yes campaign, and have really enjoyed getting to know all the different people in my area who are working for a Yes vote. I genuinely believe that in the event of a "No" vote, Scotland will still be better off (in some ways - recent polls demonstrating a desire to cut funding apart) for having had this referendum in that it has got so many people who would normally not describe themselves as political creatures engaged and actively campaigning for what they believe in. People are now more confident in having these political discussions and I think that could result in a populace better able to hold politicians to account. It's also built a lot of connections between people who would never normally run across each other.

Finally, I have been thinking a lot lately of the quote from Jim Sillars:

"On 18 September 2014, between the hours of 7am and 10pm, absolute sovereign power will lie in the hands of the Scottish people. They have to decide whether to keep it, or give it away to where their minority status
makes them permanently powerless and vulnerable."

Obviously not all agree with the second part of that statement, but the "absolute sovereign power" bit sends chills down my spine and is worth reflecting on whether you are a Yes, No, or undecided. This is a momentous decision. The Union of the Crowns was the absolute definition of an undemocratic process. Finally, the people of Scotland will have the chance to either reject it, or endorse it. A "No" vote is more than a rejection of independence; it is a positive declaration of support for the UK and all that it is. There is no "status quo" to return to. I honestly think that, for those registered, the referendum vote is going to be the most important vote any of us will ever cast.

And the question needs to be asked of the SNP in the TV debate tomorrow about depopulation in the event of a "Yes" vote. It happened in Ireland and often happens in times of major change. But the people who will move will be those who can afford to, and who are paying into the system, leaving Salmond's Socialist Fictional Utopia full of the less well off, the sick and the needy. The burden of caring for these will be spread amongst fewer taxpayers, paid for by dwindling oil revenues in an economy with a potentially unstable currency and soaring interest rates.

Where will that money come from? It will come from the "Yes" voters and those who choose to stay, not from the UK.

Additionally, the costs of separation will fall disproportionally on Scottish taxpayers. If Scotland gets, say, 6/59of the assets (not sure of population but something like that) and has to set up military, computer systems, benefits system, embassies, etc etc it is going to be an expensive business. The UK, meanwhile, will be weakened internationally as politicians concentrate on the settlement and the needs at home, leaving other nations to forge ahead, economically and in terms if international relations.

Frightening times.

I am happy for Scots to run their own country; all I worry about is the effect on rUK of some of the issues they haven't resolved yet.

What issues are those Burden? An independent Scotland will have lots of issues to resolve, starting with the currency. But as far as the continuing UK is concerned, it's all very predictable.

We get lots more employment from financial services, civil servants, shipbuilding and defence industries all moving back to the UK. And we no longer have to pay subsidies for Scottish wind power. It's all good news!

We get lots more employment from financial services, civil servants, shipbuilding and defence industries all moving back to the UK. And we no longer have to pay subsidies for Scottish wind power. It's all good news!

But if that were true, sallying, why would our politicians in England be so keen to keep the union together? Why not just wave off the Scots and wish them well?

I think there will probably be losses on both sides if independence goes ahead. The Scottish people have a right to make that choice though, and the rest of us have to respect that choice and make the best of it.

but she suspects that some SNP voters are much more right wing. Would be a bummer to get rid of the Tories in Westminster only to find your own right-wingers in Scotland!

I have always voted Labour. I will vote No in the referendum. If independence happens I will vote Tory in any subsequent Scottish election to counter the lunatic fringe of extreme socialism that will inevitably follow.

"vote Tory"

Sallyingforth - in the event of a yes, there is no guarantee you will get all those jobs moved to england. With no currency union the pound would be weakened and trading becomes more difficult between the 2 countries. You lose 8% of the population of the UK and a third of the land mass, your 'clout' on a world platform would be reduced somewhat. You no longer have the oil reserves in scottish waters. If labour win the next election, when scottish MPs leave after 2016, it would be a mess.

But if that were true, sallying, why would our politicians in England be so keen to keep the union together? Why not just wave off the Scots and wish them well?

Because we genuinely are better off in all sorts of ways as the larger country. Rose commented on this above.

Those jobs are already in the UK so there is no reason to move them. It would be most unfair on Scotland to do so.

But once Scotland leaves and becomes a foreign country like any other (and perhaps not even in the EU), we will naturally be looking after ourselves.

Personally I'm content for the Scots to decide what to do, and if they decide to leave I'll be happy for them and for the continuing UK.

But that's just it, isn't it? People's voting habits may well change after independence - who can say?!

I think those who are voting yes primarily because they want self governance and better representation for Scottish people have a perfectly valid point of view.

Those who are voting yes because of how they think things might be in an independent Scotland could well be disappointed.

I'm voting No, for all of the economic reasons already listed, and because it's not going to make a difference to the calibre of politicians who govern so it's not worth the expense. Governments are never, ever, what you want them to be.

The White Paper is full of lovely-sounding promises but there's no proper backing up of those promises. Socialist utopias are grand ideas but they are incredibly expensive and there's no chance that Scotland would be able to afford that utopia without ramping up taxes on both individuals and companies. The first would make me poorer, the second would make the country poorer as corporations would be less likely to base themselves here when there's another country across the border with a lower rate of corporate tax.

Finally, I dislike the SNP's record of governance. Can't see how they'll do anything about poverty when they have the chance now and instead chose to use it on free prescriptions for all, for example, which is a sop to the middle classes and doesn't do anything for poor people (who already didn't pay for prescriptions). As the SNP will be leading any negotiations with Westminster in the event of a Yes vote I feel that's a relevant objection.

That'll be as effective as pissing in the wind

in the event of a yes, there is no guarantee you will get all those jobs moved to england.
Really?
The financial services will move to London because they have to, as spelled out above.
The shipbuilding will move to Belfast or Portsmouth because the UK government will no longer wish to subsidise the Clyde to keep it open - again spelled out above.
There are other defence industries in Scotland that the UK will not want operating in a foreign country.
There are civil service departments in Scotland that serve part or all of the UK - it would be common sense to bring those back to the UK, except for the small parts that serve Scotland.

I reckon those are pretty good guarantees.

We all hear a lot (not least from Alex Salmond) about "Scottish oil" but as long as the union endures and Scotland isn't actually a separate country, it surely only "owns" assets as part of that union?

Of course that changes if the vote is "yes" - but even then it seems unclear as to who'd own exactly which waters and how assets would be divided

I realise that politicians on all sides lie like they breathe, and I don't pretend to be an expert in these things, but many of the issues really don't seem as clear-cut as some would like to believe. If the Scots do go it alone, we're into unchartered waters - whether they contain oil or not

Sally you are being naive, at best, if you think it's all positive for rUK when Scotland leaves. Disentangling the Scottish percentage out of every UK department will not have no impact. That's cuts to your dwp, dvla, hmrc etc.

That'll be as effective as pissing in the wind

Well it's true that Salmond's style of bluster won't cut much ice when negotiating with Whitehall mandarins - he'd better take plenty of blood pressure medication :)

But I hope we'd look past him, and try to be fair to the Scottish people who will have to live with the results long after he has departed.

The White Paper is full of lovely-sounding promises but there's no proper backing up of those promises

Exactly, GrouchyKiwi - love the name, by the way - there's very rarely anything behind politicians' lovely promises. As with any ballot, those voting in this one would do well to be careful about what they wish for ...

Disentangling the Scottish percentage out of every UK department will not have no impact. That's cuts to your dwp, dvla, hmrc etc.

Yes, they'll all have to cut out the 8% that relates to Scottish people and companies. That's quite a lot of work, but it's a one-off.

Of course, there will be no Scottish dwp, dvla, hmrc etc. to hand them over to, which is a bit of a problem for someone north of the border.
It has been suggested that we could carry on doing the work for Scotland - for a suitably profitable fee of course.

sally my main question is about currency union. I am also thinking about whether we would feel we wanted to help if iScotland did go through difficult times. I am not so sure we would just walk away. But mainly, it's currency that I think about. The rest of it, seems to me is none of my business as I don't have a vote, and like you, I do wish the Scots people well whatever they go for.

Puzzledandpissedoff - I think which bits are Scottish waters and which bits aren't is about the only bit that isn't in dispute - in as much as the Scottish Government has accepted (for now) the change to the maritime boundary in 1999 that brought a small percentage of the North Sea Oil (iirc, mostly the gas fields) into so-called English waters. That bit at least has international precedent. (The argument there is whether or not Donald Dewar should have accepted the change - don't think there was much publicity about it at the time).

Completely with you, beast, but I happen to think that the rUK media will be foul if the vote is Yes. Most of them (according to my journalist friend) have been treading on eggshells in covering the referendum so as not to alienate No voters in Scotland. If Scotland go Yes, then they'll pressurise Westminster to play "hardball". This will affect public opinion South of the border. Westminster politicians will feel the heat. Sad, but possibly true.

sally my main question is about currency union. I am also thinking about whether we would feel we wanted to help if iScotland did go through difficult times. I am not so sure we would just walk away.

I don't think is is any doubt about currency union. The Westminster parties are all out-doing each other to commit against it, and with an election coming up next year there would be some very red faces if any of them changed their minds at the last minute. "If we can't believe you on that, what can we believe you on?" No, it won't happen.

As to helping in difficult times, the Scots I have met have all been (justifiably) proud people and I think it would have to get very bad before they asked. But if they did, I hope we would help.

I did some research on it today, from what I can see, it is not a guarantee that they would all have to move. It's a definite risk for some companies. The EU directive talks about financial undertaking in one member state for the purpose of evading stricter standards in another member state.

I think with no currency union and different corporation tax rates, then yes, banks who are registered in scotland but have most business in england would move. But at the moment, until the negotiations take place etc it is not a certainty.

The Scottish Government has accepted (for now) the change to the maritime boundary in 1999 that brought a small percentage of the North Sea Oil (iirc, mostly the gas fields) into so-called English waters

Yes, I was aware of that bit, prettybird but as you so rightly said, that's what's been agreed for now. Quite what will happen if the Scots vote yes is anyone's guess, which is what I meant about getting into unchartered waters ...