Thank you for the link kim147. I cut and paste the quote from a Unicef report (link above, somewhere!) Your report makes very interesting reading, although I think your maths might be flawed.
Your method calculates the chance of a 1-15 year old dying in any particular year. To calculate the total risk over their childhood, we must add up their risk for each year. Using just the 2012 data, this would look like:
Year 1 (birth - 1): death rate of 2,912 (our of a population of 10,780,395 - calculated using the 2012 birth rate minus the 2012 death rate and the 2012 still birth rate)
Years 1-4: death rate of 454
Years 5-9: death rate of 267
Years 10-14: death rate of 272
Since the population remains broadly static, we can assume a combined risk of 7423 out of 10,780,395. Which works out as a total death rate of 1 in 1,452. Currently, the percentage of deaths from accidents in developed nations (sorry, don't know the UK %) is 40%. So that would be 2,969 out of 10,780,395, i.e. 1 in every 3,653 children born in 2012 will die as a result of an accident before their 15th birthday Ok, so death rates will change over the next few years, but it's a good approximation.
This seems very reasonable given that:
- The unicef report (which gave an average of 1 in 750) is looking back over the past 15 years. A time during which it recognises, huge improvements in child safety have been made
- The unicef report also places the UK very high on it's safety list. Children towards the bottom of their list have double the chance of dying from an accident
I am not in any way advocating no risk or not letting 10 year olds play out (I have a 10 year old DSS, he gets a fair amount of freedom). I just like numbers 