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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

to feel like the world is overdue a large natural disaster?

149 replies

Twintery · 07/03/2014 19:44

I obviously could be very wrong.

OP posts:
ThatBloodyWoman · 08/03/2014 11:51

Did you really mean to say the next three days op?

Any more details?

JazzAnnNonMouse · 08/03/2014 11:52

I didn't know about Yellowstone.

There have been lots of natural disasters Sad

The thing that I think would/could effect us that I worry about is big weapons nuclear style and antibiotics not working. The second I think is far more likely and a simple strain of an illness could wipe out thousands like it has before throughout history.
I think I read somewhere that flu has killed more people worldwide than all wars out together - that's scary !

PandaFeet · 08/03/2014 12:01

The OP said three months. Another poster said three days.

TickledOnion · 08/03/2014 12:02

This is an interesting (and horribly morbid) comparison of death tolls.
[http://waitbutwhy.com/2013/08/the-death-toll-comparison-breakdown.html]
I had no idea of the huge death toll of very recent disasters.
Japan Tsunami 2011: 20,000 people
China Earthquake 2008: 87,000 people
Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004: 230,000 to 280,000 people
Haiti Earthquake 2010: 316,000 people

OP - YABU.

TickledOnion · 08/03/2014 12:02

clickable link

ThatBloodyWoman · 08/03/2014 12:09

Panda, who do I believe??

Bowlersarm · 08/03/2014 12:16

Panda, the OP reposted saying three days. Strange.

Thanks for all the Yellowstone info, guys. I'll have a google and watch the you tube film if I'm feeling brave enough.

TSSDNCOP · 08/03/2014 12:17

It's the same poster no? Ones got a T and ones got a t and religion

PandaFeet · 08/03/2014 12:22

Ahhhh.

Yes. Could well be the same. I hadn't looked at the name. OPs posts are highlighted to me and the three days post isn't.

ThatBloodyWoman · 08/03/2014 12:24

Bowlers, yes,
it's the upper and lower case thing that confused me.

Will the real Slim Shady OP please stand up!

Allergictoironing · 08/03/2014 12:26

Erm neither of them ThatBloodyWoman? The chances of there being a major natural disaster in the next 3 days are about the same as the chances were a week ago, or a year ago, or 10 years ago. The timescales for things like major earthquakes or super-volcanoes erupting are in the tens or hundreds of thousands of years per event.

When scientists say an event is "overdue", they are talking on a geological scale e.g. the average time between such events is around 200,000 years & we haven't had one for about that. The event could have happened any time in the last 50,000 years and as it hasn't it's likely to happen any time in the next 50,000 years. Yes that could be tomorrow, but it could also be 42,563 years from now.

To put that in context, recognisably humans have been in existence around 500,000 year maximum and homo sapiens (anatomically as we are now) around 200,000 years. The oldest recognised "civilised" culture (civilised means city builders) is around 6,000 years ago.

Allergictoironing · 08/03/2014 12:28

Should have added -

Modern science is now able to predict increased activity for certain types of potential natural disaster like earthquakes and volcanoes. However this isn't an exact science and can't be relied upon. It would also only give a few days notice at most.

ThatBloodyWoman · 08/03/2014 12:30

I'll go with the 42,563 years from now option then Grin

HesterShaw · 08/03/2014 12:47

Meteorites and solar flares. They are what scare me. Along with:
Pandemics
Tsunamis
Mass starvation
Fires

But I don't think we are overdue any of them. I'd rather they didn't happen actually.

ToughSpuds · 08/03/2014 12:49

You have to think of it this way. If something did occur what could you possible do? Nothing. So why spend time worrying about something that is unlikely to happen? My DD is 4 and was terrified of all the flooding on the news. Natural disasters happen all the time OP and a lot of people die. Google is your friend but I think if you want to believe something bad enough you will find the evidence you want to back it up.

Bowlersarm · 11/03/2014 10:34

If we get to the end of today unscathed we've survived the OPs premonition. Fingers crossed.

magicstar1 · 11/03/2014 10:53

I remember seeing a documentary as a child, about the San Andreas fault. The conclusion was that California is due a huge earthquake in the next thirty years....and I saw it about thirty years ago. I don't think I could go to California for a holiday as I'm just waiting for it to happen.

Allergictoironing · 11/03/2014 11:22

Magicstar1 those estimates are approximate - VERY approximate. The caldera that forms the Bay of Naples (a supervolcano approximately 4 miles across) is active and is also "due" any time now. That isn't going to stop people visiting that part of Italy on holiday, as there tends to be warning signs for weeks or even months beforehand that a really big one may be thinking of blowing.

The problem that scientists have is that places like earthquake zones & volcanoes rumble & complain from time to time without actually going off. So though there are potential warning signs often months beforehand there can be no certainty that these are any more than grumblings and it may all settle down again. These signs can be warning enough that maybe you would be wise to not book a holiday to that part of the world, but they aren't enough to indicate that an evacuation is necessary - for that you get a few days at best & a few hours at worst.

Remember that detection of the warning signs is advancing almost daily, so something that may have been an unexpected event 20 years ago is now much more predictable. The reason why the earthquakes that set off tsunamis tend to not be predicted is that they are usually somewhere deep in an ocean where scientists haven't been able to monitor the area.

sunshinemmum · 11/03/2014 11:32

This reply has been deleted

Message withdrawn at poster's request.

TanteRose · 11/03/2014 14:14

Remembering 3.11

to feel like the world is overdue a large natural disaster?
magicstar1 · 13/03/2014 09:10

*Magicstar1 those estimates are approximate - VERY approximate. The caldera that forms the Bay of Naples (a supervolcano approximately 4 miles across) is active and is also "due" any time now. That isn't going to stop people visiting that part of Italy on holiday, as there tends to be warning signs for weeks or even months beforehand that a really big one may be thinking of blowing.

The problem that scientists have is that places like earthquake zones & volcanoes rumble & complain from time to time without actually going off. So though there are potential warning signs often months beforehand there can be no certainty that these are any more than grumblings and it may all settle down again. These signs can be warning enough that maybe you would be wise to not book a holiday to that part of the world, but they aren't enough to indicate that an evacuation is necessary - for that you get a few days at best & a few hours at worst.

Remember that detection of the warning signs is advancing almost daily, so something that may have been an unexpected event 20 years ago is now much more predictable. The reason why the earthquakes that set off tsunamis tend to not be predicted is that they are usually somewhere deep in an ocean where scientists haven't been able to monitor the area.*

You see the logical part of me agrees with you, but the irrational, weird part of me thinks that as soon as I get there, the earthquake will happen. Really silly I know.

tiaramasu · 17/03/2014 21:44

I wrote this a few hours before the Malaysian plane disappeared. Am now left wondering if that was what I was feeling.

MoreBeta · 17/03/2014 21:55

Not sure its a natural disaster but this story from the Huffington Post looks pretty 'disasterous' all the same.

" MOSCOW, March 16 (Reuters) - A Kremlin-backed journalist issued a stark warning to the United States about Moscow's nuclear capabilities on Sunday as the White House threatened sanctions over Crimea's referendum on union with Russia.

"Russia is the only country in the world that is realistically capable of turning the United States into radioactive ash," television presenter Dmitry Kiselyov said on his weekly current affairs show.

Behind him was a backdrop of a mushroom cloud following a nuclear blast.

Kiselyov was named by President Vladimir Putin in December as the head of a new state news agency whose task will be to portray Russia in the best possible light."

To be fair, I think he might not have quite achieved that objective there.

TillyTeacakes · 10/05/2024 12:10

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