Crisis What Crisis? Is my friend over doing the stockpiling and am I too? Continuation thread (2)

[RedToothBrush]

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

I'm moving it over to chat from AIBU as it makes a bit more sense to be there at this point.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.

This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

We are however going through a period where various governments throughout Europe think there is an elevated risk of some kind of problem due to global instability and we should start to get our heads around the possibility of needing to be ready for anything.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

So this is for everything from tips and considerations about what might be a good idea to do /save minimise potential risks to just straight old political bollocks talk about how things are developing.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

This does actually explicitly say to write a personalised plan for your household which everyone knows and understands and to talk about the issues you may face to help you be able mobilise for any situation which might arise. Which is exactly what this thread is ultimately for.

i am getting mine this saturday.

There is so much grey/hybrid conflict already ongoing. I am aware - authoritatively - that 1) the public rarely get to know about much of it, and 2) one of the reasons there has not yet been a ‘spectacular’ is because the US, UK and others are very, very advanced in cyber warfare, and therefore, the opposition knows that reprisals from the west would be significant.

More probable in the short-term is the possibility that the Kremlin will continue to try to snag an undersea cable, with an anchor - or similar, or use kinetics to strike a comms/GPS satellite.

As to Taiwan, Xi is attempting to infiltrate Taipei’s politicians so he can mount a takeover from within.

This is what I know.

Flu jab are 15 / 20 quid I know people are really strapped for cash but I think if you can just pay it's very worthwhile.

Star shield and star link are different star shield is gov controlled apparently and musk has blamed us gov for that one.

Re WW3 I thought it had started ages ago but mostly cold .

Hormuz Letter (the following is a rehash from the FT)
Ukraine to restart major strikes on Russia's oil refineries, with Zelensky declaring "The block on attacking refineries is out. We're done."

Zelensky says the reason for the restart is Trump lying to him by deliberately blocking Starlink but presenting it to Kyiv as a "technical glitch," as well as telling Ukraine that the missed ballistic missile warnings earlier this week was due to "bad weather," which killed 6.

"It was not a technical problem, it was the will," from Trump, he says.

He also slammed Trump's eagerness to strike a diesel deal with Russia and Trump's apparent admiration for Putin, saying Trump has an instinctive affinity for autocrats and the super-wealthy. "He speaks about it openly and loudly that he loves such people and he respects such people," Zelensky says.

Christopher Miller (FT)
NEW: The US has proposed that European countries unfreeze some Russian sovereign assets immobilised after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine and transfer them to a vehicle overseen by Washington in an attempt to revive peace talks

Kathryn Watson (CBS)
TRUMP: "We have a clause that's sort of hard to break. It says you will under no circumstances be allowed this is for anybody that's served two terms be allowed to run under any condition for president of the United States after two terms. ... There's not a lot of wiggle room there. We've looked."

Sir William Browder (on the Zelenskyy FT interview)
Ukraine to resume strikes on Russian refineries, Zelenskyy says.

This is the most honest interview with Zelensky I’ve ever read. He drops all niceties about Trump and says it how it is. I don’t know how he held his tongue for so long.

Hormuz Letter
Trump ordered the US military to develop new strike plans that include deploying the "mother of all bombs," the largest non-nuclear bomb in the US arsenal against Iran to target "a lot of energy infrastructure" and nuclear sites, per multiple US officials to CNN.

The newly developed options amount to a "fireworks show," a US official says.

The plans for striking Iranian nuclear sites, including Pickaxe Mountain, also explicitly call for using the MOAB, should Trump give the order to resume the war either before or after the midterm elections.

Elon Musk (3hrs ago in response to Zelenskyy saying he's not stopping)
And so the slaughter continues …

Time for Zelensky to go

Le Pen:
"So regarding Ukraine, I have already answered this question, because I indicated, I think it is also an element of honesty toward Mr. Zelenskyy, that France is no longer in a position, budget-wise, to provide financial aid to Ukraine. That we are obviously in agreement to maintain a whole series of mechanisms aimed at training their soldiers, training their army, providing them with help including in terms of equipment, but we can no longer finance Ukraine. So this funding will cease, and I believe it is once again an act of honesty to tell President Zelenskyy this right now rather than lead him to believe that we could continue indefinitely to finance Ukraine when objectively, well, you see France's budgetary situation, we simply no longer have the means, that France is today in a situation—as everyone will have understood—that is extremely perilous."
Contrast with Meloni who is in power.

Jarrett Renshaw (whitehouse Reuters reporter)
NEW: Trump administration weighs easing sanctions on shadow fleet tankers that carried Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil — aiming to cut record-high freight rates, days after Trump lifted sanctions on Russian diesel to the dismay of Zelenskiy, Europe and Senate Republicans

Kash Patel (head of the FBI)
From Russia, with Love…
(Yes he really tweeted that after the stuff yesterday and yes it's his official account)

I am still trying to work out what on earth was the tipping point for Trump and Musk. There must be a personal reason that goes beyond Iran and even the midterms. It's absolutely crazy.

Re Le Pen

Dutch Bloke
Dear grok: what percentage of its GDP is France spending this year on financial aid to Ukraine?

Grok
According to the Ukraine Support Tracker (Kiel Institute, up to June 2026), France's bilateral support is ca. 7.9 billion euros since 2022, or ~0.18% of GDP. Including EU share ~26 billion (avg. ~0.2% GDP/year). Pure bilateral financial support is <0.03%/year. Exact 2026 figures are still missing.

It's not a lot all things considered. The fact Le Pen is talking about it, and talking about it this week ahead of these protests is interesting...

The big thing here is European leaders don't have choices and the capacity to bend to the USA without putting their own freedom and security at risk. 'Peace' with Ukraine just means Russia has a surplus or drones and is closer. The sabotage attacks won't stop.

Has Zelenskyy stopped pretending DTrump is his friend? Taken off the kid gloves? Yikes.

In a word.
Yes.
https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/2110615927469346897
The FT have put the Zelenskyy interview free to view on YouTube. You can get to it here (sorry I can't get a direct link on my phone - I'll try and do it in a bit).

Thomas Harold Massie (born January 13, 1971) is an American politician. A member of the Republican Party, Massie has been the United States representative for Kentucky's 4th congressional district since 2012.

Thomas Massie on twitter
The House adjourned until after the election to avoid votes on releasing the rest of the Epstein Files and on the impeachment of SecDef Hegseth.

When we return, if the files haven’t been released and if Hegseth is still in office, I’ll force a vote on both.

WSJ: The Trump administration is moving to strip Democratic Rep. Ilhan Omar of her U.S. citizenship and deport her. Her Washington home was searched, with her passport, phone and computers seized. Relatives have been subpoenaed.

Trump: "I made $72 billion on TikTok! You know who number one on TikTok is? Trump. Remember? Trump. I'm number one. Can you believe it? Taylor Swift is 19. They just sent out the ratings."
Swift has 33.5 million followers on tiktok. Trump has 17 million. Sorry 16.6million. Mr Beast has 144 million and he's not top. The Rock has 80 million.

Seems like we'd better get used to the idea that the USA is more allied with Russia than Europe.
Growing up in the Cold War I would never have imagined this would be where we are now.
I think WW3 has started, just not with the nuclear armaggedon I expected in my teenage years.
I think Europe needs to get a wriggle on with forging a defensive alliance, excluding the USA.
Far from a 'special relationship ' the UK can clearly no longer count the USA as an ally.

If we ever could really have counted on the USA....

As far as prepping goes, I believe that once we've taken the basic steps to cover a short period, it's better to change focus rather than keep adding to a physical stockpile.
I'm thinking that developing skills, keeping ourselves as healthy as possible, trying to build community, and paying down debt, are the best preps for the drawn out instability we appear to be facing.

Aka 'collapse now and avoid the rush' https://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-06-06/collapse-now-and-avoid-rush/ which I find very resonant

I'm actually at the point of now trying to lock in on firm plans.
Where will our family meet up points be?
Who will go to who, and who should stay put?
That sort of thing.

OK our families may think we're cuckoo, but tbh, who cares?

“The United States has been informed by most of our NATO ‘Allies’ that they don’t want to get involved with our Military Operation against the Terrorist Regime of Iran, in the Middle East, this, despite the fact that almost every Country strongly agreed with what we are doing, and that Iran cannot, in any way, shape, or form, be allowed to have a Nuclear Weapon.”

“I am not surprised by their action, however, because I always considered NATO, where we spend Hundreds of Billions of Dollars per year protecting these same Countries, to be a one way street — We will protect them, but they will do nothing for us, in particular, in a time of need. Fortunately, we have decimated Iran’s Military — Their Navy is gone, their Air Force is gone, their Anti-Aircraft and Radar is gone and perhaps, most importantly, their Leaders, at virtually every level, are gone, never to threaten us, our Middle Eastern Allies, or the World, again!”

“Because of the fact that we have had such Military Success, we no longer ‘need,’ or desire, the NATO Countries’ assistance — WE NEVER DID! Likewise, Japan, Australia, or South Korea. In fact, speaking as President of the United States of America, by far the Most Powerful Country Anywhere in the World, WE DO NOT NEED THE HELP OF ANYONE! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP”

We should be treating this as a declaration the US has left NATO alongside other recent developments.

@DorothyParker111 what an interesting read!

Luckily, I already don't have far to fall, leading quite a simple lifestyle. I have amassed quite a few relevant skills and don't live a high life robbing Peter to pay Paul. A lot of it is to do with the fact I have never been well off!

@RedToothBrush yes, that does seem a very clear statement.
Handy how he's forgotten how many British service personnel were killed and wounded responding to the terrorist attack on US soil.

Pride cometh before a fall, President Trump. The US is no exception.

My fall back position is literally death as I am getting on in years, disabled and if I can no longer get my essential thyroid medicine I will die. That's OK, not ideal, but I can accept that. My DP is younger and fit and does have a fall back plan as far as anyone can. No debts and a good set of neighbours, we already live very simply.

Thinking about the risk to Europe from a victorious Russia.

My friends took in a mother and daughter from Ukraine at the start of the war. Neither spoke any English and I always think how incredibly frightening that must have been for them and how brave Mum was to give her daughter safety. They are still here, daughter is doing fantastically at school, Mum has worked hard to learn English and build a life however she is desperate to go home but can't and what would she go home to compared to the life her daughter is able to live here?

I have close relatives in western Europe including young families, I can't imagine the same situation for them but equally I'm thinking where we'd put everyone here if it came to them having to leave. It seems unthinkable.

The US are the only ones to ever invoke article 5 I think??
Idiot!!

@Munchyseeds2 hmmmm, having a nephew who died serving in Afghanistan, I have to take a long walk around the block when Trump comes out with that ‘what has NATO ever done for us’ spiel. The rage I feel is almost asphyxiating.

@FindingMeno I'm similar, beyond a stockpile sufficient for a fortnight, to sit out bad weather, interruption to infrastructure, panic buying in shops… there’s not much more an individual household can do beyond that. And I am someone licensed to own firearms with the training to use them - but to what end? Against fellow, food seeking citizens ? Any scenario beyond sitting it out for a short while, is very morally fraught and for me, so beyond the bounds of ‘normal civilised life’ i’d adapt as and when need might arise. No point going down too many rabbit holes of possible/impossible scenarios, one could become neurotic. Prepare to a sensible extent then live in the now as positively as possible. For me that includes, getting as fit and metabolically well as possible. That’s a good investment in any outcome.

Without them joining WW2, things could have gone very differently. Probably a longer war with far more casualties. If Germany still lost, there would probably have been a larger Soviet empire. They might even have won. Even 10 years ago I think we couldn't even dream things going so bad with our relationship with the US so quickly.

The one thing I do agree with Trump on is that it was highly unfair for so many countries to cut back all their defence spending and expect US taxpayers to pick up the tab. We really didn't help ourselves there. It left elections very open to picking a president who picked up on that resentment and said they would do something about it.