Crisis What Crisis? Is my friend over doing the stockpiling and am I too? Continuation thread (2)

[RedToothBrush]

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

I'm moving it over to chat from AIBU as it makes a bit more sense to be there at this point.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.

This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

We are however going through a period where various governments throughout Europe think there is an elevated risk of some kind of problem due to global instability and we should start to get our heads around the possibility of needing to be ready for anything.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

So this is for everything from tips and considerations about what might be a good idea to do /save minimise potential risks to just straight old political bollocks talk about how things are developing.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

This does actually explicitly say to write a personalised plan for your household which everyone knows and understands and to talk about the issues you may face to help you be able mobilise for any situation which might arise. Which is exactly what this thread is ultimately for.

This isn't normal. But until it happens it has to be business as usual.

Agree 100%. I’m being kept alive by fortnightly hospital treatments. It’s not inconceivable that there could be a situation in which they’re no longer possible. No point worrying about it as I have no control over any of it 🤷‍♀️

I do what I can and just leave the rest.

My mum was born at the end of 1939 and had pretty bad mental health problems all her life. We know now that what children experience in their first few years affects their development greatly. She lived in a city and I can understand how terrifying her early years must have been when her brain was developing. She is dead now but with everything going on now I am starting to understand more of what she must have gone through. She never really talked about it. Just the odd snippit here and there like there were no men between certain ages about and her and her little brother seemed to go places on their own alot when they were like 3 and 5. Sounded terrifying.

I sort of wish she was still here here to discuss all that is going on although she probably would have been terrified so maybe just as well.

The other thing I keep thinking of is just how 'flaky' the UK population is with all the mental health issues, people not working, neets. We just don't sound like a country who would cope with any kind of war for more than a week without folding. We seem to have vast number of people who can't cope with anything without govt support. It does not fill me with confidence at all. I can well see a battle for the Falkland Islands and by battle I mean we try to defend them for about 2 days then hand them over defeated.

I am also worried about my children. We are planning university etc at the moment.

ATM my feeling about my own holiday is "fuck it might be the last chance"

I've said this to my Dad too quite explicitly seeing as DH thinks I've gone nuts.

(After checking oil and aviation fuel levels of where I'm going in addition to flight routes and weather).

Occasionally I watch an 'old' film like IRobot which is about 20 years old now. The technology scares the crap out of me and then I realise that the film is 20 years old and the technology by now is probably miles ahead of this. At that point my brain refuses to deal with it any further. It's too terrifying.

We will cope because people cope when they have to.

Mummy and Daddy won't be able to protect their darlings anymore and there will be a firm "get off your arse" if not conscription.

And yes conscription will happen to anyone claiming benefits who isnt disabled.

I'm going to say it out loud because I nearly have the last couple of days...

Do you think WW3 has started?

Yep. I've gone there.

Sorry.

I think it won’t be completely clear until a bit later. Basically: maybe, maybe not.

Sorry to hear about that. On a much smaller note I have covid at the moment (or flu) and it has very much triggered my asthma off which is normally well controlled. For the first time in ages I need my ventolin inhalor (the one you take when you can't breathe) as opposed to the 'brown' inhalor which is meant to prevent you becoming breathless. Made me think how unpleasant my life would get without that brown inhalor that I take every day that keeps me breathing fine. Without it I would be a coughing, wheezing mess. Not nearly as serious as yours obviously but a bout of wheezing last night remind me how unpleasant it is to feel you can't get enough air and how dependant I am on those inhalors.

My mum told me stories of her dad coughing and wheezing nightly because asthma medicine had not been invented (or maybe they just couldn't afford it before the NHS)

Key bit.

You aren't ruling it out and calling me a wacko.

That's kinda the point isn't it?

It's possible.

That plausibility is where we are. How many of you would have said that at Christmas?

I have asthma too, high five!

Health problems are worrying, no matter how much “worse” someone might have it 💐

(On another note, I have an preventer and inhaler in one, might be something to look into - or hopefully isn’t necessary!))

Based on what we are sharing here I feel like it might just have.

Strange though I always thought we would 'know' or be 'told' if we were going to war you know like the old 'Your Country Needs You' posters. I guess it's all different now.

Life you I feel there is so many things unravelling at the moment that once one domino falls it will all speed up.

Do i think you are mad? No. Do i think lots of people are living in blissful ignorance. Yes. Am I jealous of them. Maybe.

Yep, you’re absolutely right. Things are extremely serious.

Idk if I’m maybe a bit ahead of you mentally because our govt told us to prepare a year or so ago - so it hasn’t all been happening at once. Just slowly bit by bit.

ETA eg the army has been requisitioning farmland here and there for a while now.

what does the army want farmland for? Surely farmers will be needed greatly to feed the nation if there is war? Are they using it for training exercises or something?

Ive been joking about a zombie apocalypse plan for a few years. Only it's only half joking and there's things in the house that we wouldn't otherwise have. DH got a wind up radio for a gift a while ago. I have nfi where he's put it, but its somewhere in all his crap and tbh that'll do.

So I'm not sure on you being ahead of me tbh completely.

We are the frogs being boiled. Some are aware, some are not. And we are probably only in the Luke warm stage at the moment.

I don't really know to be honest if it is WW3. However I don't think you are a wacko. However I don't think there is an easy to define 'enemy' or place we are at war with in a lot of ways.

Russia and Iran are top of the list I guess.

All of this makes me realise how stupid and not clued up enough I am.

I appreciate you for flagging the Streeting quote. I'm a Times subscriber, hadn't seen it so went looking for it. You might expect a statement with such implications to be linked from the front page but no - in the Defence subsection of UK News. The gulf in understanding and preparedness (of all types) between people paying attention, as on this thread, and the wider population is growing daily. What is the government playing at by refusing to take a clear lead?

It’s because it’s basically the only space there is, and we desperately need to expand our defence force (also for NATO). We’re a small and very built-up country as it is.

As far as food goes, I’m too lazy (also busy rn) to look it up but I believe we overproduce? A lot of that is livestock and greenhouses though so idk what the greenhouses do without power!

@RedToothBrush it seems only logical that countries will make sure they have enough before sharing 😊

@HeckYeah I gave DS (uni student) £1k this summer to take him and his girlfriend off round Europe and travel and have adventures. Neither could secure a summer job and they tried. I didn’t tell them why, just framed it as a gift, but I don’t think they will have the relatively carefree youth I did in the 80s, 90s and early 2000s. I want them to stock up on all the good experiences they can right now.

i have the same unease as @RedToothBrush , the USA ceasing to be an ally of Europe or of NATO (!) rewrites the entire script, so many outcomes are now possible (like an emboldened Argentina v Falklands, an invaded Greenland) that just weren’t on the map pre Trump2. So many variables now at play, it is too messy, too many volatile factors , for a to-date fragile equilibrium to continue.

I am relishing the small things. I grew up in a context of military coups and civil war. I love me a deep hot bath with bubbles, sitting in my garden at twilight with a cuppa admiring the swallows against a clear blue sky, my children going about uni life with enthusiasm. None of which was available to my parents when I was small. I don’t take any of it for granted. And yes, i am still booking holidays and outings, as I am not putting my life on hold. One has to keep buggering on, but with an observant eye on wider events.

I know I've just opened that can of worms but given what I've read over the past week, I thought it's probably about time we started to say it out loud.

Im only saying it because I'm reading the room and thinking "hmm I think we are probably about there now to say it". I kinda know it's what at least some people are thinking.

Even a few weeks ago, it still seemed a little doomish, but Trump's behaviour has got to that level of "oh shit what next"

The amount of oil that's got out the gulf this week is way down too. This is being watched carefully and the numbers I've seen this week are, well "not good". The figures I've seen are a little meaningless to me but they are very much down on what everyone was stressing about a couple of weeks ago saying it wasn't enough but everyone who was stressing about that is now going "shit Saudi is being flattened" instead and is distracted by Big Badda Booms.

I think if we are here in this road map, then the penny will start dropping and the government will be more vocal too.

@CorvidVengeance I also framed it as a gift. Upgraded their hotel too as they wanted to stay in a cheaper apartment hotel less central (which is of course fine). I had a strong feeling of just go.

The sad thing is I think you are all right - and it scares the shit out of me.
My immediate family agree with me, don't know about friends....its not something we have talked about yet.
I think lots of people are totally unaware tho.
Where is it all going to end??

Zelenskyy has arrived in the UK.

Zelenskyy
Already in the UK together with my team. Today, I will have an audience with His Majesty King Charles III. There will also be an important meeting with Prime Minister Andy Burnham. We will discuss a wide range of security issues. We are preparing decisions that will strengthen us. I thank the King, the Prime Minister, and all of Britain for their support!

Aidan Stretch (CBS)
NEW: US officials blamed “bad weather” for not warning Ukraine of Russian missile launches overnight which killed 6 and left more than 600,000 without power, sources tell @CBSNews. Ukrainian officials don’t buy the excuse, believing intelligence was withheld on purpose.
Sources in Ukraine's Ministry of Defense also confirm reporting in the @KyivIndependent and @FT that SpaceX restricted certain access to Starlink which Ukraine uses for communications and strikes into Russia overnight - without notifying Ukraine's military.
Ukrainian officials say that the U.S. has not broadly cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine but point to the ballistic missile early warning failures and restrictions on Starlink as examples of the US withholding certain capabilities.

Alex Raufoglu (Radio Free Europe - journalism in unfree societies)
NEW!! Sources tell me Ukriane has raised an urgent issue with SpaceX and the U.S. Govt this morning: a newly discovered Starshield speed restriction at 100 mph could disrupt high-speed UAV, aircraft and helicopter ops -- including efforts to counter Russian Shahed drones.
The operational stakes are significant. Kyiv says its forces received no prior warning of the restriction and are reporting performance issues even below the stated threshold. At a moment when Kyiv says Russian advances have been halted, the change could undermine frontline operations, logistics and strike capabilities.
Ukraine is asking SpaceX to restore the service conditions it says were in place under U.S. govt arrangements through May 15, 2027.
Kyiv says it has received no response yet.
The timing, alongside reported glitches in ballistic-missile early warning, raises serious questions—but any connection remains unverified.

GeoInsider
🇷🇴 After disruptions in the Netherlands and Belgium, Romania is also being affected by the major cyber incident at Ahold Delhaize, the Dutch- retail group that owns Mega Image, Shop&Go and Profi.

This morning, Mega Image customers are still experiencing problems with online orders, personalized offers and Card Connect discounts. Employees in Bucharest have also reportedly faced difficulties accessing certain company applications remotely.

The disruptions follow a cybersecurity incident announced by Ahold Delhaize on October 12. The company took some systems offline as a precaution while investigating and protecting its network. It has since begun a controlled restoration of certain systems, but services have yet to return fully to normal.

Def Mon AT DefMon3
People seem to forget that Russia have a war-time production of weapons and drones. If the war in Ukraine would end, Russia would be sitting on a massive over production. The most likely scenario, is that they will start selling drones to countries all over the world.
These weapons will become a threat to us and our allies after a cease fire, both home and abroad. We currently have an opportunity to take out this production. We should help Ukraine produce weapons which can reach the drone factories deep inside Russia.
We already see Russian attacks on the west on a weekly basis more or less. We are too scared to call these attacks so we use the term "hybrid warfare". A drone on an airport with a bomb attached is NOT hybrid.
We are not prepared to fight this fight. So lets make sure Russia can't fight this fight. Lets make sure their "hybrid warfare" cost them more than it cost us.