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Why do different weather forecasts for the same area vary so much?

2 replies

Superscared · 21/06/2026 23:03

Why do weather reports from different sources but for the same area differ so much? Which should we believe? Three different weather apps tell me Wednesday will be 35 / 33 / 32 degrees. Often there are larger discrepancies than this but why? Just curious on a Sunday evening in my oven of a bedroom.

OP posts:
MyOtherProfile · 21/06/2026 23:07

Because none of them can be accurate. I just don't think anyone can accurately predict the weather. So often you can check the forecast for in a few days time but it will change several times before the day arrives.

OutOfApricots · 21/06/2026 23:51

It is a guesstimate, that's all. They can't tell us exactly what is going to happen several days ahead. They can only use the data currently available, look at what happened on previous occasions with a similar data set, run it all through a software program and try to predict what might happen next. They have worked out that the temperature is likely to be somewhere in the low to mid 30's.
Every few hours they do another forecast with updated information and change the forecast for the week ahead accordingly. It is not an exact science.

We tend to go by the Met Office forecast.

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