Labour to lose by-election?

[Sanctum]

Labour are going to lose the by-election aren't they? Farage is going to do literally anything to win it.

Labour are then going to look even more stupid. I'm beginning to think every single politician is as corrupt and power crazy as the next.

Yup. I wish they'd calm the fuck down and just get on with running the country.

The absolute last thing I ever want to see is Farage winning anything but seriously - Burnham, Streeting, Rayner et al all deserve to get a good drubbing and then be consigned to the dustbin.

It’s like they watched the turmoil in the Tory party and decided that was a model for government

i also don’t think they are addressing the reform issue properly as they don’t really seem to understand their voters - and I don’t think Andy burnham understands them any better

but to me Labour are showing themselves not to be a party but a collection of factions that are only interested in the next election. But what’s the point of winning elections if you’re not trying to make things better. Labour were elected on a manifesto and if they end up with a new leader who diverts drastically from that then do we need a new election? What a mess

It is definitely not a given that Labour will win. What happens if they lose, and Streeting doesn’t get the 80 he needs to challenge Starmer? We’ll be back to Starmer who everyone hates except a few people in his party and he’ll be even more weak and ineffectual after all this. It’s a complete mess.

They don’t understand the electorate at all. I feel this is a lot of their problem.
I also feel that Andy Burnham won’t win this by election, might be close , but reform are doing well elsewhere , so it won’t be easy.

I think Starmer is right to hold steady. Burnham, Streeting and the rest will burn themselves out quickly and then someone still needs to run the country. And Nigel is definitely going to throw everything into winning; based on a thread from yesterday there are people so disgusted with Burnham’s manoeuvring that they wouldn’t vote for him…but who knows.

We know people in red wall seats have been feeling negatively towards Labour for a long time. If they vote reform in then it sends a very powerful message to the party - it’s not about moving left or a new leader - you need to take a good hard look at yourselves and ask yourselves who you actually think you are representing

I don’t think a reform win is indicative of a reform win at the next general election - it’s a sign that the big parties need to start listening and acting

It is cheeky isn’t it. Vote for me so I can become PM.
There was an old clip of Andy Burnham on tv last night telling Chris Mason that it’s what he wanted and that was years ago. I suppose it is now or never, but he has a lot of hurdles to overcome. It’s not easy. It usually goes a lot smoother than this for leadership challenges and not as transparent either. He has to fight off the Reform movement that is growing. I bet they are ‘ game on ‘.

UK politics.....what a shit show. Do we think Kemi can turn things around for the Tories? I know they royally fucked up as well but we really don't want Farage as a PM.

Just look at the US now!

Exactly. I won’t be voting Labour again after this shitshow.

I don’t dislike Burnham but he deserves to have his arse kicked after this. Either Reform or the Greens will do.

I have always liked Andy Burnham , but this a contest too far. Maybe if Reform were not around , but they are sniping at people’s heels and he’ll need to win round a lot of disgruntled labour voters to win this one. He may be able to do it, but it’s going to take a lot of commitment and leg work and a huge push.

It’s really difficult to understand how they looked at the results for the last GE, and from the local elections and decided, yep, that’s the one Andy needs.

The MP who took over Andy burnham sold seat was on the radio talking him up. When asked if she would step down for him it was ‘oh no, I wouldn’t do that as my constituents chose me etc etc’

i suspect this is the only seat he’s managed to get and they’re hoping his stint as Manchester mayor will mean he’s popular as an individual

What is he going to say to the electorate: vote for me so that I can use you to further my personal ambition?

I suppose it has the advantage of being the truth.

There's a good possibility they will tell him to get lost and then his career will be over and I doubt he will be MP or even Mayor of anywhere again.

I imagine Keir Starmer will be in the cardshop today buying a Good Luck card for Nigel Farage.

I suppose they needed a post to come up quickly and this MP is stepping aside. It’s handy it’s in that area and not in the south or somewhere as he’d wouldn’t have a chance in many places. It’ll be five weeks or so until the election , then he’ll need to make a move before recess ( if he wins ) If he doesn’t win, maybe some of the others will have to come forwards. None of which are particularly popular with many people or been leaders before. It is a bit of a mess isn’t it and the only one I like the look of is Al Carns. I don’t know much about him though. If only they had allowed AB to stand earlier this year.

@GenialHarrietGrouty

Hear, hear! 👏

Yes, I think Kemi can turn it around.

As an aside, if Raynor becomes PM, I look forward to her weekly run in with Kemi.

There will be Kemi-beautifully presented, beautifully spoken, not afraid to bite, using words of more than one syllable, delivering elegant put downs.

Facing her will be Ange-unkempt, yelling in that dreadful voice, unable to understand some of the words Kemi is using, getting more and more confused and excited and shouting out crude and coarse insults. It won't be long before she turns up to the dispatch box drunk.

That will be the end of Us Labours and good riddance!

Well, let's put it this way, I wouldn't put money on them winning it.

Burnham isn't a lucky man. Lost two leadership contests already and managed to be out of Westminster when he should have been in it.

I don't think Napoleon would have made him a General.

The mental image of this! 😂😂

Burnham is broadly popular in Manchester and I personally like him, I have met him a couple of times and he was very nice and down to earth BUT Manchester folk can be funny about being told what to do and I don;t think there is any guarantee he will win this By Election
Its a bloody mess and I don't think labour are doing the right thing here

People don't like being told who to vote for which is what's happening here.
I voted labour at the last election but if my local MP resigned in order to get AB into parliament I'd resent it. I wouldn't go as far as to vote reform but I probably wouldn't vote for Burnham. In addition to all that who wants their local MP to be prime minister? The job wouldn't leave much time for the constituency and Makerfield seems like it needs a good local MP.

It is certainly a disaster of immense proportions 😬

Seems madness to split the Labour vote in 2 in a by-election? Literally assuming that everyone who would vote Labour hates Starmer? What about those who actually want Starmer to stay in?
Or do they only reside in the South East? Who is making this assumption?

I saw some local people being interviewed this morning from Makerfield. There were some who grumbled but also several who still supported Starmer.
In fact it's only online and in the press that I've really seen the dislike of Starmer. A completely unscientific poll of friends and family suggests people are broadly happy with him apart from a few blips.