Labour to lose by-election?

[Sanctum]

Labour are going to lose the by-election aren't they? Farage is going to do literally anything to win it.

Labour are then going to look even more stupid. I'm beginning to think every single politician is as corrupt and power crazy as the next.

Thanks for the people answer my question

Out of curiosity, I looked up the salaries

So as mayor of Manchester, he's getting approximately 118

It's a 10 K uplift for being leader of the party and obviously the Prime Minister salary if he gets that job.

In spite of all the reasons given here, I still don't get it

I think it's a disaster

I actually think Starmer should stay on

I think, if there's any chance of rescuing things, ironically he has a better chance

After all, it's his leadership that people were voting for in a way

much as we talk about selecting local MPs, we do think about who the leader of the party is and who is going to be Prime Minister

There must be other stuff at play here that I don't know

But looking at the bare facts of getting a labour MP to run in this area just doesn't seem like a great idea.

I’m surprised Labour have lasted this long as a political party when you look at the constant infighting. They just seem terribly unorganised.

A main issue is the discontent with who members vote for and who the public like. The members once voted for Corbyn over Burnham. Even if Andy gets to be an MP then stages a leadership vote who knows who will end up running and who will be voted by the members?
I think Starmer isn’t the greatest but all politicians have U-turns and issues. None have been that devastating. I think he should have been allowed more time. Back stabbing rarely leads to stability.

The arrogance of Burnham to think the country needs him so much that a by election should be held to enable this is beyond astounding - if I was in that area there is no chance I would be voting Labour.

The electorate need to be told loud and clear what Reform would mean for ordinary people’s lives.
Life would become harder and more expensive than many have ever experienced before.
The NHS must be protected at all costs. Reform have plans to privatise it.
Now is the time to calm tensions, reset the political debate, and focus on bringing communities together, not dividing them.
Farage and his circle thrive on outrage and fear while lining their own pockets. Millions linked to cryptocurrency ventures and wealthy backers, and they are not even in power yet.
They do not represent the struggling working class. Nigel Farage is an extremely wealthy ex-public school boy. Dulwich College fees are around £35,000 a year ( likely far higher now). How can people in deprived working-class communities genuinely believe he understands their daily struggles?
Working people are being sold anger instead of answers.
Wake up people. You are being conned.

@Dexternight You are making me want Reform. The NHs needs reform. It’s not fit for purpose. All parties have wealthy backers! Where do you think they get money from? Who cares where people went to school? I don’t like Farage but stupid class warfare gets us nowhere. Labour is the party of benefits. It’s not the party supporting proper full time workers and even less employers. Unemployment helps no one. It’s ridiculous to think the only people who struggle to make ends meet is the mythical “working classes” thst no one can define. All working people should keep more of what they earn and they make choices over how they spend it. I don’t want the government wasting it. Reform are highly likely to win this by election but people are protesting. Some will vote because they don’t want huge government intervention - they want less and less tax.

I keep hearing from all corners that Labour supporters really don't want a leadership election. So far as they are concerned, they voted for Starmer, and they don't want an unelected Prime Minister in place. They really don't want Labour following in the footsteps of the Tories and constantly changing leaders.

I wish Labour MPs, and Burnham, would just wake up and get real.

None of them deserve to govern.

One of the truly astounding things about the last few decades is how we end up with such shit quality people governing us in the world’s leading democratic countries.

No one is saying the NHS is perfect. It clearly needs change. But there’s a difference between improving public services and undermining the principles behind them.
This is not about “class warfare”. It’s about credibility and lived experience. If politicians claim to speak for struggling communities while benefiting from enormous wealth and privilege, people are naturally going to question whether they truly understand the pressures facing ordinary households.
And let’s stop pretending only one group is struggling. Nurses, tradespeople, office workers, small business owners, self-employed people, young professionals and pensioners are all feeling the squeeze. That’s exactly why divisive culture-war politics are so dangerous. They pit ordinary people against each other while the real issues remain unresolved.
People absolutely should keep more of what they earn. Government should spend taxpayers’ money wisely and efficiently. But slogans about lower taxes alone do not magically fix crumbling public services, housing shortages, NHS waiting lists or stagnant wages.
The real question is not who can generate the loudest outrage online, but who has serious, credible answers that genuinely improve people’s lives.
Anger is easy. Governing is harder.

“Lived experience” yuuuk. Most people have enough money to get by but would like lower tax due to inflation. No idea what credibility means and Labour is utterly about class warfare!

Politicians can be rich or poor. I frankly don’t care. What I want is their intelligence and vision. It’s very easy to understand costs for a household are more than income but many households don’t spend wisely. They need help with buying heathy food and budgeting. They need to understand that jobs pay better than no jobs. Except they don’t for some and the benefits bill is too high.

Labour is divisive. People like Angela Rayner are deliberately divisive. Even labelling people as working class is dividing us. The middle classes are somehow the baddies! I agree many of them don’t feel well off and don’t want to be robbed via taxation. In a cheap area a nurse can afford a home by the way, as can teachers. Living with a partner with 2 salaries coming in gives a combined salary of £80,000. Enough to buy somewhere and live ok.

Stagnant wages for some. Not doctors! Not in the nhs. Others are paying more tax for this and not getting the returns. We are producing dc who are Sen. why? What’s gone wrong? Housing shortages? Labour has build very few! Agree governing is harder but our tax take only pays for benefits and pensions. Nothing else. So dream on about service improvement. Plus our loan repayments are £110 bn a year and rising due to current turmoil caused by Labour. Frankly, we don’t earn enough to get what we want and our growth is pitiful. Business is not incentivized. It’s taxed. We need to reduce our wants and be more realistic.

@MeetMeOnTheCorner You say people just need budgeting lessons and “healthy food advice” as if millions are struggling because they’re irresponsible rather than because housing, bills and childcare have exploded while wages lag behind.
And saying nurses can “easily” afford homes ignores huge regional differences and the reality many key workers rely on overtime, second jobs or family support just to stay afloat.
This isn’t about making middle-class people “the baddies”. It’s about recognising that an economy where working people feel permanently stretched despite doing everything right is not functioning properly.
A strong economy needs good jobs, affordable housing, productive businesses and functioning public services not just lectures about lowering expectations.

I don’t know anyone who wants Starmer to stay. He’s seen generally as a good man and well meaning - but weak, wooden, and an uninspiring speaker.

That's not my experience. It tends to be acknowledged that he's made some mistakes, but also that he's done really well with things like foreign policy and law and order.

More materially, the vast majority of Labour supporters I come across simply do not want a leadership challenge. They don't want the disruption and instability it causes, to say nothing of the effect on the economy, and they really don't want Labour to be following in Tory footsteps by chopping and changing all the time; they view the Conservative record of five PMs within 8 years as utterly laughable.

Yes I haven’t met anyone who supports a leadership challenge. Most conversations I have seem to be keener on a change in chancellor than a change in PM

Agree!

Agree with this too. We really need someone to properly stick the boot into Reform. Sadly with our right wing media, who are largely to blame for how Reform has taken hold in the first place, I reckon it’s unlikely to happen. They’re a bunch of bad bastards and if we think Tories and Labour have been a shitshow we haven’t seen anything yet I fear.

But the other problem is that if anyone says they’re voting reform for x,y or z reason they get shouted down and told they’re a bigot

we need proper communication around the issues. The big parties need to understand their own position and explain it clearly. Not let reform make bombastic claims and just dismiss it as lies etc - explain it to people

He hasn’t got a chance. By deciding to go for this seat he’s throwing away his political career. I’ll be interested to see who runs for Reform and Greens.

Is it a Leave area and if so, by how much?
I thought Burnham was a Remainer? And metropolitan elite London style of the North?

Although wasn’t Boris just the same anyway, wherever the wind blows he will be there.

but also that he's done really well with things like foreign policy and law and order.

Starmer is the guy who opened up the prisons and let prisoners out before they'd finished their sentences, some of them violent prisoners. That's not a sign of doing really well on law and order!! Paedophiles, those raping farm animals, and stalkers are getting suspended sentences constantly. Hurty tweets command jail time. It's so back to front it's frightening and it's under his watch, whether as PM or as Directoer of Public Prosecutions.

I hope AB loses. The whole arrogance that is surrounding this by-election is astounding and sickening.

@BeardySchnauzer I think that there are reasonable explanations in the serious newspapers, via places like the Institute for Government and other centre leaning think tanks. Most intelligent people know what the issues are. The big problem is they require long term solutions. Blaming other parties is not getting us any further and saying that there are quick fixes is ludicrous. I don’t believe most people are interested in long term planning. Look at the fuss right now due to elections that were not even nationwide. Everyone baying for immediate change and a saviour! It is not possible but many in politics are utter fools and so are the public!

IMO, Dexternight has articulated the problem very well. 'The electorate need to be told loud and clear...' It's politicians thinking like that that's the problem. The idea of democracy is that the government represents the people (the demos) and the views of the people, and if a particular politician can't agree with the electorate they should respect that the electorate can have a different view, while trying to make their case attractive enough that people will vote for it.

I've met a couple of people who met Nigel Farage, individually, some time ago. They just ran into him in public. Both said that they felt they had a good conversation with him but realised afterwards that he had said very little but had been listening to what they had to say, drawing them out. So, rather than telling people what to think and how to vote, he has listened to people and then set himself up to represent the views that he has heard around the country. Yes, he hopes to make himself a good career out of that, but he's not alone in chasing a career in politics.

I'm no Reform supporter, but I do think they are offering something outside of the mainstream, which many find attractive in the face of all the shenanigans of the Tories and Labour while in power. I also think that insulting people by suggesting that they are accepting being told how to think and vote is not the way to persuade them to change their vote.