Labour to lose by-election?

[Sanctum]

Labour are going to lose the by-election aren't they? Farage is going to do literally anything to win it.

Labour are then going to look even more stupid. I'm beginning to think every single politician is as corrupt and power crazy as the next.

I don't get the hatred either. Labour as a whole have not been good but to me he seems a decent bloke who didn't drag us into a pointless war.

It does feel like I'm watching a slow motion car crash. I honestly can't bear it.

Reform have far more money to throw at the by-election than Labour do.

I think the British people are contrary and will probably deliberately not vote Burnham in just to foil what they will see as a plan/ plot/ deal/ whatever. Basically, as a poster already said, people don't like being told what to do

The local elections don’t back that up though.

In terms of who would make the UKs best PM, based on polling done in January, he scores highly against all the opposition figures.

As people are pleased he didn't take us into another endless war (unlike Farage and Badenoch) & even lobby correspondents have said he has done well to stand up to the 'challengers, might be a bit higher...

The local elections weren't a poll on any political leaders popularity, Badenoch is supposed to be popular, yet Tories did just as bad as Labour.

My worry is this taking the electorate for granted.

Will the people of Makerfield really just vote for Burnham cos Labour are telling them to?

I say that as someone who wants Burnham to be PM - Starmer is useless!

I don't understand...

1. why they think a change of leader will make a difference

2. why they think this is a safe seat.

I don't understand why Andy Burnham is considered the man who can fix this situation. I don't understand why he wants to give up a decent job in order to do it.

Can't you go places from being mayor? I thought it was a job that opened a lot of doors to a lot of opportunities

Now he just wants to be the leader of a failed party? Why? Do the unions want him to do it?

After the G&D by election, it seems even more mad to think that this will work.

I just cannot fathom what any of them are thinking at all. Is there any solid research behind this? They also seem to have picked an area that's very pro Reform, so why would that area ignore the opportunity to vote for a newish party?

There is just absolutely no sense or logic in what's happening! From watching the news it seems like everyone is baffled.

I think the important thing to realise is that “they” (aka the barmy promotors of Andy Burnham the wizard of Oz) are not equal to THE Labour Party.

I read that the estimated cost to the taxpayer of the two by elections (Manchester Mayoral and Makerfield) is £5 million.

What happened to putting country before party or in this case one man's personal political ambition.

Tha

That's true and it was only a straw poll anyway, but people often vote differently in local elections. I still don't think he'll win though.

I don’t understand why Burnham would want to do this. He’s accomplished a lot apparently and is well rested. He could very possibly lose this by election and look like a complete idiot. Is it just that these people are crazy for power?

If you mean the by-election he may not I agree, but that’s also reflected in the recent swing in the council elections.

@WatermelonSalad1 I think Burnham has tried, and failed, to be Labour leader before. Twice. Of course he wants a national top job! What does going places actually look like ? For him nowhere much. What politically elected job is bigger? He thinks he’s the second coming but the voters might think he’s foisted on them. I’d be cross that the stupid mp they had thinks he’s got a career letting Burnham in after he had to resign from his ministerial position in this parliament. Why Labour chooses these idiots is beyond me.

The issue with Labour is despite the majority they have they have split views on almost everything so nothing ever gets passed.

It’s almost as if they are putting their own personal views into everything when they vote hence the screaming mess we are in. It’s not about the good of the country. It’s about personal ambition, getting one over on each other and this is just within their own party.

Shame on them.

I think he is responding to the many calls for him to stand. He would not be standing if many people had not asked him to do so.

If he had any sense, he'd spend the weekend "thinking" about it, go to Makerfield on Monday, have a chat with locals, then very publicly conclude it wasn't in the country's best interests at this time.

If this madcap scheme goes ahead I predict an absolute shitshow.

He is doing it because he realises that a Farage Government is a possibility and a nightmare in the making. And will do all he can to avoid it.

Then he should wait until till the mayorship is up for election and stand down.

Then get on board with the upcoming general election which isn't going to be too long afterwards.

He needs to be in the house. At least Labour see it that way. So that is what he hopes to achieve.
As to a GE. Not a chance that Labour will call one anytime soon.
They can change the leader and PM without doing that. And following the Council results not a hope they will go to a GE anytime soon. They will be seeing out the time.They are not in some sort of minority Government either.

The next Manchester Mayor Election is due in May 2028. The General Election will be held fairly soon after that. And by fairly soon I mean later in 2028 or early 2029.

I've been wondering too about the chap who 'stood down' for AB to run in the by election. And he just did that out of the goodness of his heart did he? Or was he somehow leant on? Sweetened? Because maybe it's just me but if I had a job that I'd presumably fought quite hard for and enjoyed doing - would I just give it up for some other schmuck who is just using the opportunity for higher ambition? I don't think I would so how did this actually come about?

What can he do to prevent it that Starmer can't or won't?

I do think Labour will indeed lose that by-election.
I think it should not happen.
Burham is the mayor of Manchester. He took that position on his last campaign. He left Parliament. Labour should choose a leader from within their MPs.
Me, personally, I am fed up of Starmer. So I am not that worried about a leadership contest. But why bring in someone who is not an MP now? And... likely he will not be.....
Starmer has reduced the country to a bundle of fears, instead of harmony and hope for the future. Here we are weighing where we are more fearful of a PM that promotes his friends, into sensitive positions, friends who have disclosed information about UK in the past, a PM who fails to record meetings with Palantir and Mandelson or do we fear more the chaos of changing PM and the markets upheaval? And whether this new PM will keep a similar approach to international politics?
I am less fearful of the temporary chaos of changing PM now.
I do not trust him by now. And I am very suspicious of this Palantir contract.
Starmer could have helped himself by allowing a full enquiry into it and being fully open. Now, we are all facing one fear or the other.

I will literally split my sides laughing if he loses the by-election.

Not because I endorse any particular party, but because they all so richly deserve a drubbing. The only one of the leaders I can contemplate being stuck in a lift with and not wanting to blow my brains out is Kemi. But even a poised, intelligent woman like her can’t salvage the toxic Tory shitshow now. And Rayner as PM would be the perfect embodiment of lunatics taking over the asylum.

None of them deserve to govern.

That is it, so many people are fed up of politics beyond measure and they are using their vote as a sort of punishment, rather than selecting who they align with better. I would not risky. I think it shows lack of judgement from Burham, to be honest.