Ukraine Invasion: Part 61

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 61 with many thanks to all So many thanks to all contributors and a special salute to those providing daily updates. For the 61st time, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

**
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Oh dear, how sad, never mind.

I still can't get my head around what the issues are on both sides.

I have seen this brief history on Poland and Ukraine which is helpful, but it still feels like it's unnecessarily escalating between the two countries.

Hope the link work:

open.substack.com/pub/romansheremeta/p/how-poland-betrayed-ukraine?r=29bjip&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

The new President is right wing and it really seems like he's picking a fight and escalating it.

Ukraine sent Budanov and someone else equally high level to try to sooth things and they came away without success, which makes me think there's an agenda on the Polish side. Tusk has tried to settle things as well.

I'm rather afraid that the EU lost the trouble maker Orban but got this Karol Nawrocki instead.

So where does Polish public opinion stand? Is this purely an obsession of the right-wingers in power, or are their views widely held among the people?

Quickly nipping off topic again - yesterday's UK defence spending announcement.

Some at the UKs generally left of centre POV newspaper the Guardian seems to have made a decent stab at seeing through and past the smoke and mirrors:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jun/30/burnham-left-with-47bn-bill-for-starmers-new-defence-investment-plan

Last few paragraphs of the article sum up a lot of comments I've seen elsewhere, most especially the last para.

"John Healey, who quit as defence secretary in protest at the plan, said on Tuesday: “Britain will still be spending just 2.7% of GDP in 2030, the date when Nato has warned we could face a Russian attack.”
He added that he believed a clear target date to hit 3% was necessary.
Tan Dhesi, the Labour chair of the Commons defence committee, said: “Good we now have a funded and scalable defence investment plan backed by Treasury.
“But it’s lacking in detail and doesn’t outline operational risks for areas being cut.”

Im not sure. There have been rumblings of discontent about the number of Ukrainians in the country (and the rumblers tend to ignore that the Ukrainians have contributed notably positively to the economy overall) but the way that Nawrocki is handling things seems to indicate a prior agenda. He's massively amplifying a (relatively minor) friction point that could be handled and settled, with goodwill. Instead he's actively making it much bigger and much worse.

The refusal to send the previously promised MiGs on the grounds that Ukraine isn't sharing its drone tech also seems to have something odd about it.

There was another problem as well which escapes me that seemed somehow to not make sense, but it escapes me atm.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russian threat will outlast Putin, Sweden’s military intelligence chief says.
Nilsson also said Sweden saw no signs that Russia’s political system or Vladimir Putin’s grip on power were under immediate threat, despite economic strains caused by the war and Western sanctions.

⚡️Norway-Ukraine agreement aims to bring armed robots onto the battlefield.
The Norwegian defense company Kongsberg and Ukraine's DevDroid announced on June 30 a collaboration to produce ground drones equipped with state-of-the-art weapons systems, aiming to supply Ukraine and other European countries.

⚡️ Denmark announces $670 million defense aid package for Ukraine.
About 1.3 billion Danish kroner ($200 million) have been allocated to the so-called "Danish model," a mechanism under which a partner country provides direct funding to Ukrainian arms manufacturers.

⚡️ UK unveils landmark defense plan, incorporating lessons from Ukraine.
The plan, backed by 300 billion pounds ($400 billion) in funding over four years, is part of a drive toward a more “European NATO” and will help the British forces deter the Russian threat, outgoing U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said.

Behind the lies of the latest guest on Tucker Carlson’s podcast — a criminal Russian arms dealer
Four years after calling Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout an “indisputably serious criminal,” Tucker Carlson welcomed him on his podcast to promote Kremlin talking points without pushback.

⚡️Ukraine signs deal with Sweden to purchase 16 Gripen E fighter jets.

⚡️Euroclear takes frozen assets dispute against Russia to court in Brussels.
Euroclear, a Belgium-based financial market infrastructure provider, has filed a lawsuit against the Bank of Russia in a Brussels commercial court, challenging a Moscow ruling that ordered it to pay 200 billion euros (approximately $230 billion) in damages, Belgian media reported.

⚡️Russia to halt multiple railway checkpoints on borders with Finland, Estonia, Latvia.
The government order, set to take effect on July 1, did not provide a reason for the temporary closures.

⚡️Kyiv, Bucharest open direct line of communication after Russian drone struck Romania.
Ukraine and Romania have opened a direct line of communication in an effort to prevent future drone incursions into the country, Romanian President Nicusor Dan told outlet News Ro on June 30.

⚡️Ukrainian drones reportedly target Russian bearing manufacturing plant, strike occupied Donetsk.
Ukrainian drones hit a state-owned bearing plant in the Russian city of Penza overnight on July 1 as strikes were recorded in occupied Donetsk, social media channels reported.

⚡️ Hungary opposes scaling down EU protections for Ukrainian men.
Even if the decision is adopted at the EU level, it will not prevent Budapest from accepting ethnic Hungarians fleeing Ukraine because of the war or mobilization, Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar said.

How Ukraine's ultimatum changed the equation for Belarus
The relay equipment that helps guide Russian drones over Belarus went dark on June 22, days after President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a public ultimatum, threatening to disable the equipment with Ukraine's own forces if the demand is not met.
Whether the shutdown proves lasting remains unclear, but it offers the first visible sign of a broader shift: Ukraine is no longer treating Belarus as merely Russia's staging ground, but is increasingly willing to pressure Lukashenko directly.

Who is Vadym Iermolaiev, the sanctioned tycoon injured in the Monaco attack?
Ukrainian businessman Vadym Iermolaiev, who faced an assassination attempt in Monaco on June 29, is little-known nationwide but wielded immense influence in the city of Dnipro.

[yesterday] ⚡️Russian attacks kill 13, injure 109 across Ukraine over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JUL 1, 2026
■ Engagements above the 7-day average, but casualties below it; 🇷🇺 gains of 50 km² reported by LiveUAmap
■ 19 air defence systems hit in the last 7 days (most in 2026)
■ 🇷🇺 overnight attacks: drone interception rate could be better, but 1 of 2 missiles was shot down
■ 🇷🇺 drone launches and shelling above average; 18 🇺🇦 strikes reported and 470 drones launched into 🇷🇺; 30-day strike ratio improves

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he discussed further support for Ukraine with the UK Prime Minister’s National Security Adviser, Jonathan Powell.
“We are grateful to the United Kingdom for approving a new support package worth nearly £290 million (about $381.6 million).

Rheinmetall has won a contract to supply artillery ammunition to Ukraine, Reuters reports.
The contract is worth tens of millions of euros. Production has already begun at Rheinmetall's plant in Spain, with completion scheduled for the first quarter of 2027.
Rheinmetall is a German defense company. Its Rheinmetall Weapons and Ammunition division manufactures large- and medium-caliber weapons and ammunition, protection systems, and ammunition components, including propellant charges and powders.

💥 Ukrainian drones attacked the Ufa Oil Refinery, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
The refinery is one of Russia’s largest producers of lubricants. It is located more than 1,300 kilometers from the front line.

Russia attacked five gas stations in the Dnipropetrovsk region overnight.
A woman was killed, and three others were injured in the attack. Equipment was damaged, and fires broke out at the gas stations, the regional military administration reported.

The UK will spend an additional £1.5 billion on the Atlantic Bastion programme, partly in response to increased Russian submarine activity. The funding will be used to build a hybrid naval force and strengthen the protection of the UK and its NATO allies, according to the new budget of the UK Ministry of Defence.
The Atlantic Bastion project aims to integrate surface and underwater vessels, ships, aircraft, and submarines into a unified digital targeting network.
The system will use AI-powered acoustic sensors to detect and classify threats more quickly. @notimagain

On Tuesday, the British government is set to present one of the most ambitious army reform plans in decades. [...]
According to the Ministry of Defence, the new concept focuses on cheap systems that can destroy expensive targets, and on innovation cycles measured in weeks rather than years. [...]
However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has forced London to rethink this model.
The war has exposed the vulnerability of expensive platforms, highlighted the need for mass use of low-cost drones and munitions, and accelerated the shift toward autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, and rapid battlefield deployment of new technologies.
One of the most notable decisions in the new plan is the reduction of funding for the construction of up to eight advanced Type 83 guided-missile destroyers and Type 32 frigates.
Instead, the UK will invest in at least six new Common Combat Vessels, which will serve as control hubs for unmanned systems.
The Ministry of Defence says this approach is strongly influenced by Ukraine’s ability to inflict significant losses on the Russian Black Sea Fleet using a combination of naval drones, aerial drones, and missiles, despite lacking a full-scale navy.
Changes will also affect the Royal Air Force.
The government has announced funding for the Collaborative Combat Air programme, which will develop autonomous combat aircraft capable of operating alongside manned fighters.
This programme is part of the UK–Italy–Japan Global Combat Air Programme to develop a sixth-generation fighter.
The implementation of the plan will depend largely on Andy Burnham, who is expected to lead the British government this summer.
The plan includes around £15 billion in additional investment on top of the existing £270 billion defence budget for the current parliamentary term.
Around £5 billion will go into a large-scale drone development programme.
The Ministry of Defence notes that Ukraine uses around 200,000 drones per month, and says this experience should guide the British armed forces.
“Technology on the battlefield is changing at lightning speed. Ukraine has clearly shown that drones have fundamentally changed the nature of modern warfare,” said Ross Exley, vice president of defence strategy at UK tech company Hadean.
The plan also includes creating Europe’s largest drone testing centre, working alongside a special task force focused on rapidly scaling drone production for the British military.
According to Tim Willacy-Wilsey, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), the shift is symbolic:
“It is somewhat ironic that in 2022 the UK trained Ukrainian forces, and now they may be the ones who train us. They are the ones showing how to wage war today,” he said.
He added that without such reforms, the British army “would not last more than a few weeks.”

⛽️Gas stations operated by Russian oil giants in Moscow have introduced fuel purchase limits.
At Gazprom Neft gas stations within the city, customers can buy no more than 30 liters of gasoline or 60 liters of diesel per visit. Fuel is also no longer sold in canisters.
At Gazprom Neft highway gas stations, customers are limited to 30 liters of gasoline or 200 liters of diesel per visit. One of the company’s gas stations in Moscow has also imposed a 30-liter limit on gasoline purchases.

Independent gas stations in Russia have started selling fuel for more than 100 rubles ($1.27) per liter for the first time, Reuters reported, citing retail sources.
Shortages caused by Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries have led to unprecedented increases in spot prices for gasoline and diesel.

The International Skating Union (ISU) has allowed Russian and Belarusian athletes to once again participate in international figure skating, speed skating, and short track speed skating competitions in a neutral status.

The Russian army targeted a kindergarten in Zaporizhzhia.

🇺🇦🎹 He beat Rachmaninoff. Ukrainian pianist wins prestigious competition in Portugal.
Roman Lopatynskyi won the Santa Cecília International Piano Competition 2026. In addition to first prize, he received the Audience Prize, the Agent Prize, and the CD Recording Prize.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine has regained the initiative on the battlefield by striking Russia’s logistics, energy infrastructure and military assets, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.
But he warned the window is closing as Moscow adapts, urging Western allies to accelerate billions in funding for drones, missiles and advanced weapons.

Historical disputes between Poland and Ukraine are increasingly shaping Poland’s domestic politics ahead of the 2027 elections, analysts say.
The latest row intensified after Zelensky named a Ukrainian military unit after a UPA-linked figure, triggering a political backlash in Poland and the revocation of one of his highest state honors.

Poland cancels MiG-29 transfer to Ukraine over Kyiv’s refusal to share advanced drone tech and capabilities, despite initial agreement on a “MiGs for drones” deal.
Defense Minister Kosiniak-Kamysz cited lack of reciprocity, while noting Poland’s $5B+ past aid.

Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Syrsky said Russian military reporting often exaggerates advances, with settlements marked as captured even after small assault groups are pushed back.
He said Ukraine has a stronger real-time understanding of the battlefield and benefits from Moscow’s distorted command picture.

Two Ukrainian Flamingo missiles hit a defense plant in Volgograd.

Ukraine’s “long-range sanctions” hit an oil refinery in Russia’s Ufa, more than 1,300 kilometers from the front line. The refinery is one of Russia’s largest producers of lubricants, Zelensky said.
A strategic facility in Russia’s Penza region was also struck. The site develops and manufactures components for the missiles Russian forces use to attack Ukraine.

China called on Ukraine and Russia to resume peace negotiations "as soon as possible" during a UN Security Council meeting.
Beijing also reiterated its support for an immediate ceasefire, saying the humanitarian consequences of the war continue to worsen and urging both sides to demonstrate the political will needed to reach a peaceful settlement.

Russia launched another overnight wave of drone, missile and guided bomb attacks across Ukraine, killing at least 3 civilians and injuring more than a dozen.
Drone strikes hit 5 petrol stations and railway infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, while 7 guided bombs struck civilian areas in Zaporizhzhia.

Ukraine’s victory is essential not only for Europe’s security but also for any chance of change inside Russia, Garry Kasparov said.
He argued that Crimea’s liberation would deliver the psychological shock Russians need to understand that the imperial project is over.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺🇺🇦Ukraine has received the second tranche under the European aid package of €90 billion.
€3.9 billion have been allocated to fund defense needs — the production of Ukrainian drones, strengthening the defense industrial base, and ensuring urgent front-line supplies.
▪️On June 25, Ukraine received the first tranche under this mechanism — €3.2 billion went toward budgetary support. In total, this year Ukraine is to receive €45 billion under the EU loan: €28.3 billion for defense, and €16.7 billion for budgetary support.

🇯🇵Nearly 90% of Russian missiles and drones contain components from Japan, said Vladyslav Vlasiuk, the President of Ukraine's Commissioner for Sanctions Policy, in an interview with Kyodo News.
These are primarily civilian-grade electronics that are freely sold on the Japanese market. The components may have reached Russia in circumvention of export restrictions via third countries.

The bridge on the route between occupied Mariupol and Donetsk ceased to exist overnight.

The Defense Forces struck two bridges in occupied territories overnight — a road bridge in the Zaporizhzhia region and a railway bridge in Crimea.
These facilities were used by the Russians to transport troops, weapons, ammunition, and logistical supplies. The results of the strikes are being clarified.
Also hit were UAV control points in Russia's Belgorod region, in occupied Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, as well as an occupier command and observation post near Staromlynivka.
Separately, the General Staff detailed the results of the June 28 strike on the "Sloviansky" refinery in Russia's Krasnodar Krai — four tanks with a capacity of 35,000 m³ were destroyed, another nine tanks with a capacity of 30,000 m³ were damaged, and an oil processing unit was damaged. Reports online say the refinery is still burning.

🇮🇳In June, India purchased a record volume of Russian oil, Reuters reports, citing data from LSEG and Kpler.
The country imported nearly 4.9 million barrels of oil per day. Approximately 2.7 million of these were Russian oil. In May, its share stood at 36.5%.
▪️Purchases increased due to the oil crisis that emerged following the outbreak of war in the Middle East.

During the day, the Russians dropped guided aerial bombs on Sumy and attacked Zaporizhzhia and the Kharkiv region with drones. Here are the main consequences:
🔴Sumy. Russian forces dropped 4 aerial bombs on the city, striking a civilian facility. 12 people were injured, five of them hospitalized.
🔴Zaporizhzhia. The city was attacked at least three times during the day — 9 people were injured and 1 person was killed. Houses, vehicles, and industrial infrastructure were damaged.
🔴Kharkiv region. Russian drones, reportedly Molniya, attacked the city of Bohodukhiv twice. 8 residents were injured there.

🇨🇿In the Czech Republic, there are proposals to strip President Volodymyr Zelensky of the country's highest state award, following Poland's example, writes České noviny.
The right-wing populist SPD party has proposed revoking Zelensky's Order of the White Lion because the Ukrainian president named a Special Operations Forces unit after the "Heroes of the UPA."

Overnight, the Russians launched 151 strike drones, an Iskander-M ballistic missile, and an Kh-59 air-launched missile at Ukraine.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 130 drones and the Kh-59 missile. 17 drones struck 16 locations, with debris falling in four more places. Information on the Iskander is being clarified.
🔴In the Dnipropetrovsk region, the occupiers attacked five gas stations. A woman was killed, and three other people were injured.
🔴In Kherson, around 07:00, the Russians struck a minibus with a drone — two people were killed and five were injured.
🔴In Zaporizhzhia, a woman was injured.

When we were in Poland, two of our guides in different places touched on Ukraine, one by saying "I don't like Ukrainians" he was driving us to the middle of nowhere, so I didn't like to ask him to expand.

The second was a retired officer in the Polish special forces- he touched on some historic atrocities but said that Ukraine was currently blocking the door to Europe against Putin,so whatever the history, we should support them now.

I got the feeling that if they didn't have the threat from Russia, it wouldn't take much to tip them into war between themselves. The rise of the far right is definitely deepening the divide.

As of now, it is known that 13 people died. More than 90 people were injured.

Five victims were in the Kharkiv region, including a child, and two in the Kyiv region, where civilian infrastructure was also hit. The Russians also struck this night in Sumy, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Cherkasy regions.

https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3mpnlo2elfs2g

Zelensky: In Kyiv, damage has been recorded in more than 20 locations in the city, and these are mostly ordinary residential buildings. An ambulance station, a scientific institute, a hotel, and enterprises have also been destroyed.

sighs

Fuck you, Russia.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Zelensky arrives in Ireland as country’s EU presidency begins.

⚡️Germany charges Ukrainian suspect in Nord Stream sabotage case.
German Prosecutor General Jens Rommel has filed charges against Ukrainian veteran Serhii Kuznietsov, marking the first time a suspect in the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline bombing has been formally charged.

Ukraine to allow weapons exports
Ukraine’s government approved “the first transparent mechanism” for weapons exports from the country, the defense minister said on July 1, a move that defense companies have argued will help keep them afloat and grow the industry long term.

⚡️Russia suffering 'one crisis after another' as Ukraine's drones hammer Crimea, Fedorov says.
"Crimea has essentially turned into a military base for the Russians, allowing them to continue occupying the south of our country and transfer forces to the east. Therefore, from both a military and logistical perspective, it is an important target for us," Fedorov said.

The Kyiv Independent’s Kate Tsurkan speaks with Ukrainian author and soldier Kateryna Zarembo about her decision to join Ukraine’s military, the realities of serving as a combat medic, and how Russia’s full-scale invasion has reshaped her relationship with writing.

⚡️ Ukraine argues Russia’s shadow fleet should be treated as military targets.
Ukraine argued in a letter to the International Maritime Organization that Russia’s shadow fleet may no longer qualify as ordinary civilian shipping, citing its role in financing Moscow’s war effort.

⚡️ Ex-army commander Zaluzhnyi’s rating falls by 9%, poll shows.
President Volodymyr Zelensky would get 32%, while Zaluzhnyi would be the runner-up with 16%, and Zelensky’s Chief of Staff Kyrylo Budanov would come third with 11%, according to the survey.

Why AI believes Crimea is Russian — and what to do about it
“As an engineer, I care about scalability, best practices, and code optimization, but as a Ukrainian, I always check whether Ukrainian sovereignty is represented correctly, and seeing Ukraine without Crimea was a turning point for me,” writes Ivan Dobrovolsky, Staff software engineer, in this op-ed.

⚡️ Ukrainian parliament approves creating pantheon to commemorate national heroes.
Kyiv’s recent initiatives to commemorate 20th century Ukrainian nationalists, including the Ukrainian National Pantheon, have contributed to the ongoing escalation in its tensions with Poland.

[yesterday] ⚡️ Russian attacks kill 6, injure 109 across Ukraine over past day, drone strikes civilian minibus in Kherson.
“The operator of the enemy drone clearly saw that it was civilian transport carrying people on their way to work. But this terrorist deliberately chose to strike,” Prokudin said.

⚡️Update: Hotel in central Kyiv on fire as Russia attacks Ukraine.
A hotel in Kyiv's central Shenchevkivskyi district has been damaged in Russia's attack, which authorities warn may get worse throughout the night.

⚡️Update: 13 killed, more than 80 injured in massive Russian missile, drone attack on Kyiv.
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko put the number of injured at 86, 70 of whom had been hospitalized.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 26m
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JUL 2, 2026
■ Major 🇷🇺 overnight attacks: 96% of 496 drones intercepted; 48 of 74 missiles shot down; 51 locations hit or affected by debris
■ Engagements remain above the 7-day average, but casualties below it; 🇷🇺 gains of 56 km² reported by LiveUAmap
■ KIU: 🇷🇺 officer deaths reach 8,500 (5.4 per day since start of the invasion)
■ Relatively few strikes on both sides during the day

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

President Zelenskyy confirmed the possibility of opening five more clusters in the near future as part of Ukraine’s EU accession negotiations.

🇺🇦🇸🇪 Sweden has already provided Ukraine with $9 billion in assistance and will allocate another $4 billion in military aid this year, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said.
“This makes Sweden the third-largest European supporter of Ukraine. During the latest Ramstein meeting, Sweden also allocated more than $100 million to the PURL program, which enables us to receive PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles for the Patriot system, including anti-ballistic missiles, to protect our cities.

🤦‍♂️Russia will continue to increase pressure on the “Kyiv regime” to achieve its goals, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy cut short his visit to Ireland due to the threat of a massive Russian attack.

❗️Fires and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure and residential buildings were reported in several districts of Kyiv following a massive Russian strike, the State Emergency Service said.

🇮🇪🇺🇦 President Zelenskyy proposed the Drone Deal format to Ireland.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Washington is preparing long-term commitments for Ukraine but expects Europe to assume a greater share of responsibility, Ambassador Whitaker said.
The United States has confirmed its readiness to continue supporting Ukraine but expects its European NATO allies to bear most of the burden of the war against Russia, US Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker said in Brussels, commenting on the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara on July 7–8.
He said the summit is expected to produce important decisions and long-term commitments that will help Ukraine strengthen its position on the battlefield and send a signal to Moscow that the war must end.

🤬 Russians use 694 types of torture against Ukrainian prisoners, Lubinets says.
According to the ombudsman, this figure is based on testimonies from Ukrainians who have been successfully returned from Russian captivity.
Lubinets also said that, at his request, the Russian Human Rights Commissioner has begun monitoring the detention facilities where Ukrainian prisoners of war are held. Ukraine hopes to receive more information about their conditions of detention and health.
The ombudsman also raised the issue of the Mariupol defenders who survived the terrorist attack in Olenivka. He said that 46 of the 130 wounded remain in Russia, despite being classified as seriously wounded or seriously ill.

❗️Ukraine has opened transparent exports of defense technologies to partner countries, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced.
How the new mechanism will work:
▫️ Under the Drone Deal initiative, partner countries that have relevant intergovernmental agreements with Ukraine will be able to purchase Ukrainian weapons, technologies, and work directly with Ukrainian manufacturers;
▫️ A transparent procedure for reviewing export applications from manufacturers is being introduced. Applications will be reviewed within a clearly defined period of up to 30 days. The mechanism applies to the transfer of weapons and defense technologies worth UAH 15 million or more;
▫️ The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will compile the list of partner countries, while the Ministry of Defense, together with other authorized bodies, will determine the list of critical items that cannot be exported;
▫️ Ukrainian technologies will remain protected by the state. Transfers will take place without the transfer of intellectual property rights, and re-export or transfer to third parties will only be permitted with Ukraine's written consent. If products manufactured using Ukrainian technologies are exported to third countries, 20% of their value will be transferred to the state budget.
Most importantly, the needs of Ukraine's Defense Forces remain the highest priority.
Exports will only be permitted if the needs of the Ukrainian military are fully guaranteed. If the state requires specific weapons, export authorization may be denied. At the same time, manufacturers will be allowed to export products if they can simultaneously fulfill both state defense contracts and export orders.

🤬 Russian guided aerial bomb attack on Kharkiv: 24 injured, nine hospitalized, the regional military administration reports.
Among the injured are two children. A one-year-old girl suffered an acute stress reaction, while a 16-year-old boy sustained blast injuries.

Russia struck a toilet paper production plant in the Odesa region with ballistic missiles, according to the regional military administration.
Two people were killed and 15 were injured, 11 of them were hospitalized.
A fire broke out at the plant and was later extinguished.

The aftermath of Russia’s overnight attack on Kyiv is still being dealt with, as rescuers continue clearing rubble, searching for survivors, and assisting those affected. Damage has been recorded at more than 20 locations across the city, most of them ordinary residential buildings. An ambulance station, a scientific institute, a hotel, and several enterprises were also damaged, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

❗️Ukraine’s air defense forces neutralized 48 missiles and more than 470 drones launched by Russia during the overnight attack.
Ukrainian defenders shot down or suppressed with electronic warfare:
▪️4 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles;
▪️32 Kh-101 cruise missiles;
▪️8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
▪️4 Kh-59/69 guided air-launched missiles;
▪️476 drones of various types.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) says it struck Russian warplanes at the Saky air base in occupied Crimea, hitting aircraft kept inside hangars during an overnight drone attack.
The agency reported five direct hits and preliminary damage to Su-30 and advanced Su-30SM fighter jets as part of a new 40-day campaign against Russian military targets.

Ukraine struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries overnight, hitting the Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez plant in the Nizhny Novgorod region, while also targeting a key railway bridge in occupied Luhansk.
The refinery has an annual processing capacity of about 17 million tonnes of crude oil, making it a critical part of Russia’s fuel and military supply chain.

Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in Kstovo, reportedly damaging a key processing unit and sparking a fire.

Kyiv authorities have declared a Day of Mourning on Thursday in memory of those killed in the attack. Rescue operations remain under way.

Zelensky reportedly urged former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny not to run in a possible presidential election this autumn to avoid political divisions during the war, Ukrainska Pravda reports.
The report says Zaluzhny replied he had never sought a political career but would run if elections were held.

Missile alerts are becoming a fact of life across Russia as Ukraine’s long-range strikes reach regions home to more than 70% of the country’s population.
The strikes have spread as far as Siberia as Kyiv ramps up drone and cruise missile attacks on Russia’s military and energy infrastructure.

Japanese officials welcomed the Ukrainian delegation to Tokyo wearing traditional Ukrainian vyshyvankas, a symbolic gesture of solidarity with Ukraine.

No Gas, No Trains: Russia’s Crimea Supply Lines Turned Into Kill Zones
Discover how a 71% drop in military cargo traffic, the destruction of vital rail ferries, and critical diesel shortages have forced Putin’s occupation forces into an absolute logistical crisis.
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/79382

Russia launched 570 aerial targets at Ukraine overnight — including 74 missiles and 496 drones — in one of its largest air attacks of the war, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.
Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted or suppressed 524 targets: 48 missiles and 476 drones. Kyiv was the primary target.
At least 17 people were killed and dozens more injured in the Ukrainian capital, where residential buildings and civilian infrastructure were hit. Rescue operations are still ongoing as emergency crews continue searching through the rubble.

Rescue crews are searching for survivors beneath the rubble, including a 15-year-old girl and her family.
Russia’s attack on Kyiv has killed 13 people and injured nearly 90 so far. An ambulance station was damaged, 9 ambulances were hit, and 6 medics and drivers were injured.

Thousands of Kyiv residents spent the night in metro stations with children, pets, and blankets, as Russian missiles and drones struck the capital, killing at least 13 people and injuring more than a dozen.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Zelensky summoned former Commander-in-Chief and Ukraine's Ambassador to the UK, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, to Kyiv ahead of the British prime minister's resignation to find out whether he would participate in the presidential elections if they were held in the fall — Ukrainian Pravda sources report.
According to sources, the president received a unequivocal answer: "Yes. I will."
Zaluzhnyi tried to explain his position, saying that he had never sought a political career, but that many people place their hopes on him, and he would not be able to explain to them why he should ignore their trust. The president and the general shook hands and parted ways.

🇺🇦🇸🇪Ukraine is testing several types of radars from the Swedish company Saab for use in a future Ukrainian anti-ballistic missile, said Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov.
According to him, it is important for Ukraine to develop its own missile of this type in order to rely solely on its own contributions to production.
▪️In June, Fire Point presented the first Ukrainian anti-ballistic missiles, the FP-7.x, for the prospective Freyja air defense system. According to the company, the missile reached an altitude of 25 km and is five times cheaper than the PAC-3 for Patriot.
▪️G7 leaders stated they are ready to consider transferring licenses to Ukraine to help it produce its own interceptor missiles and other weapons. President Zelensky stated that Donald Trump is already considering this, and Bloomberg reported the same, citing sources. Following this, Ukraine and Germany signed an agreement on joint development of anti-ballistic air defense.

🇫🇮In Finland, for the first time in history, a businessman has been convicted for violating sanctions against Russia, reports Finnish media Yle.
The South Karelia District Court sentenced the owner of a logistics company from Lappeenranta to 3 years and 8 months in prison. The court established that in 2022–2023, the company exported 164 trucks and trailers to Russia. The company stated in its documents that the vehicles were destined for Turkey and Kazakhstan, but the final destination was Russia.
The owner claimed he believed the vehicles were being delivered to Kazakhstan, but the court ruled that the scheme would have been impossible without his involvement. As a result, the court also confiscated assets worth approximately €6 million and recovered about €600,000 in illegal profits. In Finland, the maximum penalty for such violations is 4 years in prison.

Overnight, the Russians attacked Ukraine with 496 drones and 74 missiles. Air defense forces shot down 476 UAVs and 48 missiles.
The Russians simultaneously deployed ballistic, anti-ship, cruise, and air-launched missiles. The Air Force notes that one of the distinctive features of the attack was the large number of ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones.

https://bsky.app/profile/theukrainianreview.bsky.social/post/3mpobx733sc2t

Russia destroyed the warehouse of the Ukrainian Red Cross in Kyiv

320 thousand units of humanitarian cargo and equipment worth over 79 million UAH were lost.

The warehouse stored generators, medical equipment, emergency response equipment, etc.

Russia is so short on air defense assets that they are reconfiguring the Su-57 fighter for anti-drone missions.

https://www.twz.com/air/new-su-57-weapons-configuration-points-to-drone-and-cruise-missile-defense-mission

They've only built 20 or so of these planes, and only half are currently in service. Needs must, I guess.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-1-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. Russia’s spring-summer 2026 offensive has failed to achieve operationally significant gains thus far, and Russian forces’ rate of advance in June 2026 is a fraction of the rate of advance that Russian forces achieved in June 2025.
2. Russian forces have also experienced heavy casualties and equipment losses to make these relatively small gains.
3. Ukraine continued to intensify its intermediate- and long-range strike campaigns in June 2026, which are having cascading effects on Russian logistics and battlefield operations as well as causing gasoline shortages and economic frictions across Russia and occupied Ukraine.
4. Russian authorities announced that Russia will temporarily close seven railway border crossings with Finland, Latvia, and Estonia starting July 1 for unspecified reasons.
5. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaigns against Russian oil and gas infrastructure and military assets on the night of June 30 to July 1. Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile, one Kh-59 guided missile, and 151 drones against Ukraine overnight.
6. Ukrainian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-2-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. Russian forces conducted a large drone and missile strike series against Ukraine on the night of July 1 to 2, primarily targeting Kyiv City and killing at least 27 and injuring at least 91.
2. The frequency of Russian large-scale drone and missile strikes against Ukraine lessened in June 2026 for unclear reasons. Russian forces likely retain the ability to conduct large-scale drone and missile strikes against Ukraine several times per month, as they have in recent months.
3. Russian technological adaptations and strike package innovations continue to lead to increasing amounts of civilian harm, in part because these adaptations are making it more difficult for Ukrainian forces to shoot down Russian drones and missiles.
4. Russia has been using its shadow fleet vessels to facilitate its drone incursions into NATO airspace since 2024.
5. The Russian military command is reportedly reducing its plans to augment strategic reserves in favor of replenishing Russian frontline troops.
6. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces made confirmed advances on July 2
7. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure on the night of July 1 to 2.

UK Ministry of Defence

Russia has been using its shadow fleet vessels to facilitate its drone incursions into NATO airspace since 2024

The Guardian did a longish article about this yesterday.

It's not really clear (certainly from what I can see) if the researchers got much deeper than collating reports that made it into the MSM and SM so I'm personally retaining the right to be slightly sceptical about some of what is claimed but here a link to it:

www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jul/02/russia-mounted-drone-surveillance-of-european-nuclear-sites-over-18-months

@DuncinToffee I can't bear to read that.

A small part of me thinks that so much stuff should not have been kept together, but mostly just .... what heartbreak.