Ukraine Invasion: Part 61

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 61 with many thanks to all So many thanks to all contributors and a special salute to those providing daily updates. For the 61st time, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine told the UN Security Council that Russia is suffering catastrophic battlefield losses, with recruits surviving only 10 days to three weeks, while Moscow continues to make only limited advances.

The US has approved the sale of Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles to Germany.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz confirmed the deal was reached at the NATO summit in Ankara to close an "important strategic gap" in Germany’s defenses.

Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry has denied Russian claims that Ukrainian drones used to strike the Omsk oil refinery were launched from Kazakh soil.
The ministry slammed the reports as "unreasonable insinuations" aimed at damaging bilateral relations.

Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz rejected criticism over transferring Patriot missiles to Ukraine, saying Warsaw will continue supporting Kyiv.
He accused political opponents of hypocrisy and defended the government’s decision.

Russia appears to be turning back the clock.
As fuel shortages continue to spread across the country, videos circulating online show a steam locomotive hauling freight — a scene that looks more like the 19th century than 2026.
With gasoline shortages worsening, Russia appears to be falling back on technology from another era. https://t.me/Kyivpost_official/37768

Ukraine reported 233 combat clashes across the front line in just 24 hours as Russia launched thousands of strikes and drone attacks.
Some of the heaviest fighting was reported near Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka and Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian forces repelled dozens of Russian assaults.

Russia launched more than 1,000 strikes on Zaporizhzhia region in just 24 hours, killing one person and injuring 12.
Homes, infrastructure and vehicles were damaged as Moscow continued its relentless attacks on the region.

Russian-occupied Crimea is facing widespread blackouts after intensified Ukrainian strikes on the peninsula’s energy infrastructure.
Some areas face rolling outages for weeks, with full restoration potentially taking months, as Kyiv ramps up pressure on Russia’s military logistics and energy networks.

Ukraine unleashed a massive overnight drone attack across southern Russia, targeting oil infrastructure and defense-related sites.
Fires erupted and airports were disrupted as Moscow claimed it intercepted 376 drones.

Former Polish official and leader of the pro-Russian Front party Krzysztof Tołwiński traveled to Belarus to deliver 20 medical kits to the Russian army.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇨🇳🇷🇺China proposed that Russia jointly combat Starlink and create a new air defense system, according to investigations by The Insider, Der Spiegel, and Le Monde, which obtained documents on military cooperation between the two countries.
How did they want to disrupt Starlink?
As early as 2023, Beijing offered Russia several methods: diplomatic pressure, frequency jamming, cyberattacks through civilian terminals, and the creation of cheap weapons to destroy Starlink satellites.
What was agreed upon in closed-door negotiations?
In June 2023, a Chinese military delegation traveled to Moscow for talks. The sides agreed to jointly develop a new-generation air and missile defense system capable of intercepting ballistic and hypersonic missiles. How far this project has progressed is still unknown.
Why does China need Russia's war experience?
Beijing has 160 types of kamikaze drones but lacks combat experience. Therefore, at the end of 2024, it proposed an exchange to Russia: Moscow would provide data on the use of drones in the war against Ukraine, while China would provide AI technologies and mass-production capabilities for kamikaze drones.
How did China and Russia agree to circumvent sanctions?
China proposed exchanging scarce components: Beijing supplies microchips and electronics, while Moscow supplies raw materials and other materials that China has found harder to purchase due to sanctions.
▪️Starlink is one of the key communication tools for Ukrainian forces. Reuters reported that Russia is attempting to jam its operation using electronic warfare systems.

❗️June was one of the deadliest months for Ukrainian civilians since the start of the full-scale war, the UN reported.
According to preliminary data, at least 265 civilians were killed in Russian attacks in June, with another 1,816 wounded. The UN noted that the number of casualties continues to rise in July. Following the strikes on Kyiv on July 2 and 6 alone, 50 people were killed.
In total, the UN has confirmed at least 16,402 civilian deaths since the start of the full-scale invasion, including 802 children. A total of 48,428 people have been wounded. The organization emphasized that the actual number of casualties is likely significantly higher.
▪️The UN recorded a record number of civilian casualties in May — when 274 people were killed and 1,763 were wounded.

Patriot missiles, explosions at warehouses in Vyshneve, and a "window of opportunity" to end the war. Key points from President Volodymyr Zelensky's conversation with journalists.
🔴In the near future, Ukraine will receive a package of PAC-3 missiles for Patriot systems from the US. Agreements on missile deliveries were also reached with Europe — but dates have not yet been set.
🔴The NATO summit was positive and productive, as was the meeting with Donald Trump. The US president acknowledged that only two or three countries in the world can produce Patriot missiles — including Ukraine.
🔴The agreement with Trump on licenses for Patriot missile production was political in nature. Now diplomats and the Ministry of Defense must work out all technical details. "The sooner we agree, the sooner we will be able to produce missiles."
🔴Ukraine and the US have agreed to test Ukrainian naval and aerial drones, and the tests are going successfully. A Drone Deal may follow.
🔴There is currently a window of opportunity for achieving peace — Ukraine has become stronger both on the battlefield and in the air. Putin understands that his only advantage is ballistic missiles.
🔴The number of voices in favor of seeing Ukraine in NATO has increased, as Ukraine's defense industry and army are already at Alliance level.
🔴Zelensky called it an "historical joke" that Russia, whose economy was built on energy exports, is now forced to import fuel following Ukrainian strikes.
🔴In the coming days, the first meeting on the Ukrainian anti-ballistic system "Freya" project will take place in France.
🔴The ammunition depot that Russia attacked in Vyshneve belonged to Ukroboronprom. A criminal case has been opened, and those responsible will be held accountable and dismissed.

The Russians attacked Ukraine with 137 UAVs; air defense neutralized 114 drones. Here is what is known about the aftermath:
🔴Kharkiv region. A 50-year-old woman was killed in the drone attack, and a 23-year-old woman was hospitalized. A 27-year-old man and an 18-year-old man suffered acute stress reactions.

🔴Dnipropetrovsk region. In the Nikopol district, a 36-year-old man was wounded in a Russian attack, and an enterprise was also damaged.

Grim stuff about China actively supporting Russian drone production and jamming techs.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-10-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. The Russian oil refining industry is failing to meet the rising domestic gasoline demand as the Ukrainian long-range strike campaign continues to degrade Russia’s oil refining capacity.
2. A Russian state-owned polling institution indicated that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval ratings continued to fall in early July 2026 after a sharp decline at the end of June 2026.
3. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski confirmed recent US warnings that Russia might be planning to conduct provocations against unspecified NATO states.
4. Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian energy infrastructure in Russia on the night of July 9 to 10. Russian forces launched 137 drones against Ukraine overnight.
5. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Oleksandrivka direction.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Next step for Ukraine’s EU membership talks unlocks July 14.
The next step unlocks a to-do list of reforms to align Ukraine and Moldova’s foreign policies with EU norms.

⚡️Zelensky invited to Coalition of the Willing meeting in France on July 13.
The meeting will bring together at least 25 heads of state and government to renew the push for a ceasefire and peace talks, according to the French Presidential Office.

⚡️Moldova to receive largest-ever EU air defense support package, officials say.
Moldova is set to receive 100 million euros ($114 million) from the EU to bolster its air defenses, two officials told the Kyiv Independent.

⚡️ Moscow Oil Refinery reportedly on fire again.
Smoke and a fire were reported near Moscow’s oil refinery on July 10, according to Telegram monitoring channels, though the cause of the blaze has not been confirmed.

⚡️US Senator Graham claims White House backing for Russia sanctions bill.
The sanctions package " would give tools to President Trump to help end this war," U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham said on July 10.

⚡️ French billionaire Xavier Niel, owner of Ukraine’s Lifecell, becomes Vodafone’s largest shareholder.
Xavier Niel, the French billionaire and owner of Ukraine’s third-largest telecom operator, has become the largest shareholder of the Vodafone Group after buying a 16.2% stake in the company, Niel’s investment vehicle Vega announced on July 10.

⚡️Russia issues veiled threats over Dutch PM's Kyiv Independent interview.
"Such statements... are not only taken note of, but also factored into military and political planning," the Russian embassy in the Netherlands said after Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten voiced support for Ukrainian strikes into Russian territory.

⚡️Ukraine's Supreme Court upholds Zelensky's sanctions against rival Poroshenko.
Under Zelensky, sanctions have increasingly been imposed on Ukrainian citizens. Legal experts describe the practice as highly questionable and warn that it is used to punish government critics and political opponents.

The Kyiv Independent's Francis Farrell visits a prisoner-of-war camp in western Ukraine to speak directly with Russian POWs captured on the battlefield. Through these firsthand interviews, the soldiers describe their backgrounds, how they were recruited, what motivated them to enlist, and how their view of Russia's war has changed over time.

⚡️Famous Ukrainian dissident writer to feature on new banknote.

⚡️Russian airstrikes on Zaporizhzhia kill 1, injure 29.

⚡️Update: The number of people injured in Russia’s ballistic missile attack on Kyiv has risen to 11.
President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that air defenses were unable to stop the ballistic missiles: “Most of the targets were shot down by our defenders, but not the ballistic missiles.” He urged partners to quickly deliver on promised air defense packages, Patriot licenses, and the joint European anti-ballistic project.

⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill at least 10, injure at least 80.
Russia launched 12 missiles, including six ballistic missiles, alongside 121 attack and decoy drones, Ukraine’s Air Force reported.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬

⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JUL 11, 2026
■ Engagements below average and highest casualties in over a month; 🇺🇦 reclaims 22 km²
■ Heavy losses of armored equipment and artillery; 4 air defence systems destroyed
■ Major 🇷🇺 overnight attacks: a good drone interception rate; 2 of 12 missiles intercepted; 14 locations hit or affected by debris
■ 🇷🇺 MLRS and air strikes above average; only 2 🇺🇦 strikes reported, but 270 🇺🇦 strike UAVs launched into 🇷🇺
■ Separate GSUA report: 🇺🇦 strikes 21 ships (including tankers) in the Sea of Azov

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️EU ambassadors have agreed to open the sixth cluster of Ukraine's accession negotiations, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Taras Kachka announced.
The cluster covers foreign relations.

❗️The Russian Foreign Ministry is reportedly developing a mechanism that would require Russian citizens to obtain exit visas before traveling abroad, according to Russian media.
If approved, the initiative would replace the current “buy a ticket and fly” system with a requirement to receive government permission before leaving the country.
According to the reports, travel to so-called “unfriendly countries,” including NATO member states, would only be permitted in organized groups of at least 10 people, accompanied by an escort and following a pre-approved itinerary. The proposal is expected to be presented as a measure to ensure citizens’ safety.
If implemented, the system would effectively revive the Soviet-era practice of requiring separate government authorization to travel abroad.

🇺🇸The White House and U.S. lawmakers have reached an agreement on a Russia sanctions bill, Senator Lindsey Graham said.

💥Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck 21 Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov overnight, along with tugboats, dry cargo ships, and other vessels, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The General Staff said the tankers were being used to transport oil and petroleum products in circumvention of international sanctions.
Ukrainian forces also struck four tugboats, two dry cargo ships, and a dredger that were supporting Russian military logistics and port operations.
According to the Commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert “Magyar” Brovdy, Ukrainian drones hit a total of 28 Russian vessels overnight.

🇺🇦🇩🇪German defense company Quantum Systems has signed a multi-million contract with Ukraine.
Under the agreement, signed in Kyiv, Quantum Systems will supply autonomous ground systems as part of a Ukrainian research and development program. The contract includes 10 autonomous Zetros AI trucks equipped with the Quantum Systems Ground Autonomy Kit and 10 MANDRILL unmanned ground vehicles, the company said.
Quantum Systems Vice President Hendrik Kramer said the agreement will allow the company to test new products under real combat conditions in Ukraine.
According to the company, the equipment will be used by Ukraine’s National Guard, and the experience gained will help further develop the systems.
The Zetros AI trucks are equipped with the MOSAIC Ground Autonomy Kit, enabling autonomous logistics and convoy operations.
The MANDRILL unmanned ground vehicle has a payload capacity of up to 750 kg, a top speed of up to 100 km/h (62 mph), and an operational range of up to 200 km (124 miles).

🇩🇰🇺🇦 Denmark has contributed an additional €10 million to the Energy Support Fund for Ukraine.

🇧🇬Bulgaria will not use its veto to block the EU’s 21st package of sanctions against Russia and Belarus, although it continues to oppose the inclusion of the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Vladimir Gundyaev (Patriarch Kirill), Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov told Bulgarian broadcaster bTV.

Russian drone forces have begun preparations for a “big war” with NATO, according to Russian UAV expert and CNA and CNAS adviser Samuel Bendett, who spoke to Forbes.
Bendett argued that, in his view, Russia is preparing for a potential future confrontation with NATO as the war in Ukraine has reached a “stalemate.”
He warned that this shift should be taken seriously, adding that after four years of setbacks, Putin is seeking to strengthen Russia’s position.
[...]
According to the report, Russia is placing increasing emphasis on drones as part of its military planning. It also states that Russia has expanded military infrastructure near the Baltic region in recent months, with new bases reportedly capable of housing more than 100,000 troops. The article argues that such forces could pose a serious challenge to Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia if they did not receive timely reinforcements from NATO.

Paratroopers from the 81st Separate Slobozhansk Airmobile Brigade captured a Russian T-72 tank without firing a single shot after the occupiers abandoned it when it ran out of fuel, the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces reported.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

China has responded harshly to Russian nuclear threats for the first time, Zelensky said.
According to European leaders, Beijing warned Moscow that there could be no discussion of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

Russian state-backed hackers have compromised internet-connected civilian security cameras and doorbells across NATO states and Ukraine.
Dutch intelligence reported the cyber operation aimed to secretly monitor Western military aid shipments to Kyiv.

Ukraine’s FM Andrii Sybiha will attend the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Brussels.
The agenda will focus heavily on securing air defense interceptors to shield Ukraine’s battered energy network and preparing the grid for the winter season.

Russia now uses up to 25 drones in single attacks on energy facilities, while strikes on Ukraine's power grid have risen 36% this year.
Ukraine has lost about half of its electricity generation capacity as damage and outages continue to mount.

Russia is building hardened shelters around its prized Su-57 and Su-35 fighter jets as Ukrainian long-range strikes increasingly threaten military bases deep inside the country.
Satellite images show new reinforced hangars at Russia’s key aviation hub in the Far East — home to the country’s only Su-57 and Su-35 production facility.

The Trump administration is demanding that Iran issue a statement committing to halt attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
US officials warned of “severe consequences” if Tehran refuses to comply following high-stakes talks in Oman.

Belarus continues to expand its military infrastructure along the Ukrainian border, though no troop concentration is currently visible.
Minsk is building training grounds and logistics routes amid ongoing pressure from Moscow to join the war.

The EU will allow Ukraine to purchase British weapons using €60 billion in EU-backed loans, Bloomberg reports.
The decision is expected to be announced on Monday, July 13, in Paris during a meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing.”

Planned licensed production of Patriot interceptor missiles for Ukraine will likely start in Germany or another European nation.
Manufacturing capacities are expected to be transferred to Ukrainian soil only after the war.

Putin’s hometown is hiring machine gunners after waves of Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
St. Petersburg is offering more than $2,000 a month — and promises of no deployment to Ukraine — to recruit locals for mobile air defense units.

Russia is Fracturing From Within (And Putin Can’t Stop It)
With public support for United Russia plunging to historic lows ahead of the critical September 2026 Duma elections, the Kremlin is relying on asset nationalization and capital freezes to maintain control.
Watch the video on our website.

Russian forces launched seven airstrikes on Kramatorsk and nearby Bilenke in eastern Ukraine, killing four civilians, including a 14-year-old boy and his 18-year-old sister, and wounding 13 others.

Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kyiv early Saturday, injuring at least 11 people, including a child.
The strikes hit four districts, causing fires and damaging non-residential buildings, warehouses, and energy infrastructure.

Russia launched fresh daytime strikes on Ukrainian cities. In Kharkiv, a drone hit a civilian enterprise, injuring seven people.
In Odesa, a Russian ballistic missile struck an infrastructure facility, causing multiple casualties.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russia has halted navigation through the Don-Azov Canal, which connects the Don River to the Sea of Azov, following a Ukrainian attack on 13 Russian vessels — Reuters reports, citing three sources in Russia's grain export industry.
Market analysts note that up to a quarter of Russia's wheat exports, the world's largest exporter of this grain, pass through the Sea of Azov.

Ukrainian forces struck 21 Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Sea of Azov, the General Staff confirmed.
The Russians use these tankers to transport oil in circumvention of sanctions. Additionally, on the night of July 11, four Russian tugboats, two cargo ships, and a dredger — used by the Russian army for logistics and port operations — were also hit.
▪️Earlier, it became known that drones had attacked four vessels in the Taganrog Bay in Russia's Rostov region. According to Governor Yuriy Slyusar, one of them was a tanker carrying methanol. The attack damaged them.

Strikes on the Russian fleet in the Sea of Azov were captured by satellite. Schemes has published the images.
Planet Labs footage from July 9 shows two damaged vessels in the Kerch Strait area. One of them shows visible fire damage, while another damaged vessel is located approximately 10 km away. However, the resolution of the images does not allow for precise identification of their type and class.
Videos of burning Russian tankers in the Sea of Azov have also surfaced online. OSINT analysts claim that the tanker Sanar-17 was completely destroyed.

I'm away from Friday 17 - Wed 22. Might someone be able to pick up the roundups, please for those six days?

I’ll do it, although out on the 18th so may skip a day and catch up on two on the 19th depending how things go.

EU plans to give Ukraine access to British weapons using €90bn loan – Bloomberg

https://www.yahoo.com/news/world/articles/eu-plans-ukraine-access-british-130000040.html?guccounter=1

Thank you very much @DesdamonasHandkerchief

Hi @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar thanks for taking over ISW these last few days. I can take ISW from now on as well as Kyiv Independent Telegram from 17-22 July, @DesdamonasHandkerchief hopefully that will help to relieve your load.

Anytime @blueshoes and thanks very much

Thank you @blueshoes That does help 👍

Anytime!

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-11-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. The recent, intensified Ukrainian strikes against Russian seaborne gasoline tankers in the Sea of Azov have reportedly forced Russia to close some maritime routes.
2. Starboard Maritime Intelligence data indicates a possible 55 percent decline in vessels with active automatic identification system (AIS) transponders in the Sea of Azov between June 30 and July 11.
3. Intensified Ukrainian strikes against seaborne vessels may have prompted Russian vessels to alter their behavior in the Sea of Azov in any of several ways consistent with the Starboard data and AIS signal anomalies.
4. Russian consumer gasoline prices are skyrocketing amid Ukraine’s intensifying long-range strike campaign against Russian oil refineries and gasoline producers.
5. Russia appears to have been engaged in a hacking operation that targeted civilian cameras across NATO countries and in Ukraine.
6. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky authorized the creation of two new commands within the Ukrainian Armed Forces on July 10.
7. Russian forces launched six Iskander-M and S-400 ballistic missiles, four Kh-59/69 guided cruise missiles, two Kh-31 anti-radar missiles, and 121 drones against Ukraine overnight.
8. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Novopavlivka direction.

The prominent American Senator, Lindsay Graham, has died at age 71 from a heart attack.

Lindsey Graham, Longtime Republican Senator, Dies at 71 - GOP stalwart and Trump ally backed tough action against Iran and support for Israel

He was also a stalwart and vocal supporter of Ukraine. He met with President Zelinsky in Kyiv just this last Friday.

Godspeed, Lindsay, and thank you for your service.

Oh no. He was one of the best, wasn't he - stalwart. He went too young. He should have gone on, and gone on contributing, for years.

Ducks, he was a great supporter of Ukraine and very influential. The governor of his state will pick a replacement to hold the seat until the next election. We'll see how that goes.

TWZ has a very good article explaining why it will take a very long time for Ukraine to start producing its own Patriot missiles.

Ukrainian-Built Patriot Missiles Won’t Be Defending The Country’s Skies Anytime Soon - Trump promised to give Ukraine a license to assemble its own Patriot interceptors, but actually doing so will take many, many months, at best.

Condolences @MissConductUS and to all Americans. The world has lost an advocate for freedom and the Ukraine a supporter and friend.

MissConductUS
The prominent American Senator, Lindsay Graham, has died at age 71 from a heart attack.

RIP

Gosh, that's very sad and bad news for all.sorts of reasons..

RIP.

Oh that is sad news.

It is indeed. He was a USAF veteran and was awarded a Bronze Star for his service in Afghanistan. More here:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsey_Graham

I'm ashamed to admit I was totally unaware of his service background so many thanks for that link.