Ukraine Invasion: Part 61

[MagicFox]

Welcome to thread 61 with many thanks to all So many thanks to all contributors and a special salute to those providing daily updates. For the 61st time, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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One thing that's very clear is that both Russia and Ukraine are absolutely desperately short of soldiers.

https://bsky.app/profile/kevinrothrock.me/post/3moln6nwpd22q

This video appears to confirm it was a Russian air-defense missile — not a Ukrainian drone — that blew up that Moscow refinery’s storage tank today, creating the "flying saucer" footage. (This video was shared on Telegram by Russian military expert Yan Matveev.) https://t.me/arrowsmap/11995

That might be why Ukraine went in so hard, destroying approx 250 Russian artillery pieces in two nights (per the report quoted).

If caps or some other simple protection could mitigate the threat somewhat, then the element of surprise will have been crucial. They'd want to get as many as possible before the Russians could react.

Any well run army covers the muzzle of an artillery piece routinely to protect it from dirt, rain, etc. So this is just another example of Russian incompetence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tampion

Aha! I knew about tompions in Royal Navy artillery of yore.

They do seem a rather obvious preventative for many ills. Therefore of course Russian gunners haven't been using them.

Thanks @PerkingFaintly @MissConductUS that makes sense

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-17-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. The Group of Seven (G7) reaffirmed its unified support for Ukraine and its interest in re-engaging in peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.
2. The United States, Europe, and Ukraine are reportedly in talks to extend US licenses to produce US weapons abroad, but it is unclear where this production would take place.
3. Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure continues to cause gasoline shortages across the country, hindering Russia’s crude oil production and pushing Russia to maximize crude oil exports.
4. Russia appears to be capitalizing on an alleged Ukrainian strike to narratively align Belarus with its recent information operations that aim to justify devastating Russian strikes against Ukraine.
5. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces recently advanced.
6. Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign continues to force Russian authorities to restrict airspace across several Russian oblasts. Russian forces launched 119 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Great video. I enjoy videos of UFOs. Did anyone see Putin's face in the clouds?

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-18-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale strike against Russia on the night of June 17 to 18, heavily targeting Moscow City and striking the Moscow Oil Refinery for the second time in two days.
2. Russian milbloggers responded to the strikes on Moscow City by remarking on the domestic realities of the war and expressed concerns about Russian air defenses and censorship.
3. Repeated Ukrainian strikes against heavily defended Russian deep rear areas like Moscow City continue to expose Russia’s weaknesses and inability to defend its domestic populace.
4. The Kremlin is already setting conditions to weaponize claims of a recent alleged Ukrainian strike on a civilian passenger bus in Russia to justify its next massive long-range strike package against Ukraine.
5. Russia is reportedly importing gasoline from unspecified Asian countries to respond to domestic shortages that are likely to worsen as the summer continues.
6. Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including via the purchase of US-produced weapons.
7. Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the Slovyansk direction.
8. Russian forces launched seven Iskander-M ballistic missiles/S-400 air defense missiles and 239 drones against Ukraine overnight.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Belgium, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands announce new military aid, F-16s for Ukraine ahead of NATO defense ministers' meeting.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that around 10 countries had expressed support for the new Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) packages.

⚡️Western allies pledge $4 billion in military aid for Ukraine, Fedorov says following Ramstein summit.
The latest defense packages, which were announced throughout the day during the NATO defense ministers' meeting and Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) gathering, primarily consists of air defense missiles, drones, and artillery.

⚡️ UK to send Ukraine 150,000 drones, air defense systems using proceeds from frozen Russian assets.
The U.K. will provide Ukraine with 150,000 drones and more than 350 air defense missiles and radar systems under a new military aid package worth 752 million pounds ($1 billion), the British government announced on June 18.

⚡️Zelensky attends 'important' Ramstein meeting in Belgium as allies pledge more air defense aid.
"We all see that Putin is now relying on one lasting thing, constant missile attacks, and he has ballistic missiles, so we need anti-ballistic capabilities," Zelensky said during the gathering.

⚡️EU leaders agree to 12-month extension of Russia sanctions.
European Union leaders agreed on June 18 to extend sanctions against Russia over its war against Ukraine for another 12 months, marking the first time the bloc has renewed the measures for a full year rather than the customary six-month period.

⚡️Hungarian PM Magyar pushes EU to water down stance on Ukraine accession.
“At my initiative, a clause referring to accelerating accession was removed from the text at the very last moment. It wasn't easy," Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar posted on X, after EU leaders finished meeting on June 18.

⚡️Poland pushes for permanent US base as Pentagon reassesses European posture.
"The U.S. responded positively to Poland's proposal to establish a permanent U.S. military base in Poland," Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said June 18 after meeting with U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

⚡️Ukraine holds key rate at 15% as inflation risks persist after Middle East energy shock.
The bank said that inflation slowed in May to 8.2%, after a bump from 7.4% in January to 8.6% in April, partly driven by the war in the Middle East.

⚡️ US trade regulator accuses billion dollar Ukrainian IT giant of fraud.
A federal court has temporarily halted the operations of 15 corporations and eight individuals under the Kyiv-based firm Genesis Tech, which the U.S. Federal Trade Commission said in a public statement deceived consumers with hidden costs, recurring charges, and convoluted mechanisms to cancel subscriptions.

EU leaders push bloc to assert itself on Russia peace talks
The EU should engage more in diplomatic efforts to end Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, according to draft conclusions of the June 18-19 European Council summit seen by the Kyiv Independent.

'If Ukraine burns, so will Moscow' — Zelensky confirms 2nd strike on Moscow Oil Refinery in a week.
At least 17 people, including two children, were injured in Moscow Oblast in the attack, Russian authorities claimed.

‘Unprecedented’ earnings: 2 years on from Russia-North Korea pact, here’s what Putin, Kim have gained
June 19 marks two years since Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a mutual defense treaty in Pyongyang, bringing Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, or North Korea) into their closest alignment since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
In the two years since, DPRK troops have fought alongside Russian forces in the war against Ukraine. North Korean missiles have struck Ukrainian cities, and millions of exported artillery shells have helped fuel Russia’s war machine. In return, Moscow has provided Pyongyang with economic support, diplomatic backing, and military cooperation, helping transform it from a pariah state into a more prominent international player.

Investigation: How EU machinery keeps feeding Russian missile makers
Russian metallurgical plants that supply the country’s defense industry during Russia’s war against Ukraine have imported EU-made equipment despite the restrictions aimed at preventing it.
An intermediary, set up in Turkey and owned by a Dutch national, helped supply the banned machinery to Russia, according to customs records obtained by the Kyiv Independent and IrpiMedia.
The records show that the Turkey-based company Redwing Metal shipped $5 million worth of equipment in 2023 and 2024 to two plants in Russia: Aluminum Metallurg Rus (AMR) and Stupino Metallurgical Company (SMK).

⚡️Kyiv repatriates 522 bodies that Moscow claims are Ukrainian citizens.
The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War (POWs) has not specified how many civilians and military personnel were among the 522 repatriated bodies.

[17-18 June 2026] ⚡️5 killed, 24 injured across Ukraine over past day as Russia launches missile, drone attack on Kyiv ahead of Ramstein summit.
Ukraine's Air Force said Russia launched seven Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles and 239 drones overnight on June 18.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JUN 19, 2026
■ Engagements and casualties remain above the 7-day average; 🇷🇺 gains of 9 km² confirmed
■ 5th highest losses of unarmored vehicles, including fuel trucks
■ 🇷🇺 overnight attacks: drones below average; interception rate could be better
■ 🇷🇺 drone launches and shelling above average; 15 🇺🇦 strikes and 300 drones launched into 🇷🇺

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️ Ukraine urgently needs more anti-aircraft missiles and long-range artillery shells, President Zelenskyy said.
The president noted that there are currently not enough funds to cover these needs. He also added that the production volumes in Europe and the supplies received by the Armed Forces of Ukraine remain insufficient, although there is potential to increase them.

⚡️ Ukraine and Germany have signed a defense agreement on the integration of technologies, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced during the Ramstein-format meeting.
According to the president, the agreement concerns the development of a new air defense system designed to counter ballistic missiles.

⚡️ Fifteen NATO member states and 12 partner countries outside the Alliance have already joined the Drone Deal initiative, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

⚡️ NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said that Moscow cannot defeat NATO and highlighted the economic imbalance between Russia and Western allies.
He stated that Russia’s GDP is no larger than that of Belgium and the Netherlands combined, adding: “That’s why they know they cannot defeat us. So we will do everything to make them understand that it would be their biggest mistake if they dare.”
Rutte also said that Russia currently spends around 48% of its budget, or about 75% of tax revenues, on defense.
“These are extraordinary numbers. So we cannot be naive about Russia,” he emphasized.

🇺🇦🇸🇰 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.
According to Zelenskyy, the sides discussed Ukraine’s European integration, mutually beneficial energy cooperation, and the results of the G7 summit in Evian. He also briefed Fico on ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at achieving peace.
The leaders also talked about holding another round of intergovernmental Ukrainian-Slovak consultations.

⚡️ Germany will provide Ukraine with $400 million worth of weapons, according to Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.
He said that $200 million of the package will be used to purchase American-made weapons. The remaining half will be allocated to buying specialized guided missiles for Patriot air defense systems.

🇺🇦🇩🇪 Ukraine and Germany have signed an agreement on the joint production of the Termit missile system.
According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, the agreement will enable the production and delivery of thousands of Termit missiles for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with the program financed by Germany.

❗️Russia itself acknowledged that there were no drones in the airspace over Bryansk region at the time of the alleged “attack” on a bus carrying a Belarusian children’s football team, according to an intercepted report released by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
The document is described as an internal report from the Bryansk regional monitoring center “Safe Region.” According to the summary, no Ukrainian UAVs were detected in the area at the time of the incident.
The intercepted report allegedly states that:
▫️ The Regional Segment of the Operational Headquarters of the Unified National Center did not record any UAV activity in the area of the incident;
▫️ The duty officer of the radar battalion in the Russian settlement of Suponevo did not confirm the presence of drones in the airspace;
▫️ The duty officer of the 32nd division of the Russian occupation forces also reported no UAV flights during the relevant period.
“Thus, the SBU has reason to believe that the attack on the bus was a special operation conducted by Russian special services.
Previously, the aggressor state has repeatedly accused Ukraine of crimes committed by representatives of the Russian Federation itself." [...]

Russia is ramping up domestic borrowing to finance the war in Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.
▪️ According to people familiar with budget discussions, Russia is expected to significantly increase domestic bond issuance this year as wartime economic pressures grow. Defense spending could exceed initial plans by 4–5 trillion rubles ($55–69 billion), or nearly 40% above the original budget.
▪️ Under the current budget law, the government had planned to raise just over 4 trillion rubles on the domestic market, while the upper limit of state debt was set at 37.4 trillion rubles.
▪️ However, in the first five months of the year, the budget deficit reportedly reached 6 trillion rubles (2.6% of GDP), exceeding the full-year 2026 target by about 60%, and the debt ceiling has already been reached.
▪️ Although the Finance Ministry says it aims to reduce the deficit using reserves and spending cuts in other sectors, additional borrowing of 2–3 trillion rubles is still expected this year.
▪️ Bloomberg’s calculations suggest that over the next decade, Russia could pay at least 15% of GDP in interest on debt — roughly equivalent to the country’s current total state debt.

💥🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces reported that a railway bridge across the North Crimean Canal near the settlement of Rozdolne was put out of operation during a strike on the night of June 18.

💪👏 Ukraine has surpassed Russia in the number of drones launched in a single day, according to media reports.

🤡 Following a record drone strike on Moscow, Russian State Duma Deputy and Deputy Chairman of the Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev called for the capture of Kyiv and the destruction of Ukrainian logistics infrastructure.
According to Zhuravlev, the Russian military should begin “fighting seriously,” arguing that the way out of what he described as a humiliating situation for Moscow is “the destruction of the Kyiv regime.”

🇺🇦🥇 Olha Sopit has become the first Ukrainian fencer to win the European championship title in individual foil.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Zelensky said Ukraine secured over $2.5 billion in new defense support at the latest Ramstein-format meeting in Belgium on June 18.
The commitments include more than $1 billion for the PURL program, over $500 million for long-range ammunition under the Czech initiative, and about $1 billion for Ukrainian drone and missile production.

Residents across several parts of Moscow reported an unusual “oil rain” after Ukrainian drone strikes targeted the Moscow Oil Refinery overnight.
Photos and videos shared online appeared to show dark oily residue falling from the sky, with locals complaining that cars, windows and streets had been covered following the attack on one of the Russian capital’s key fuel facilities.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Zelensky said Ukraine secured over $2.5 billion in new defense support at the latest Ramstein-format meeting in Belgium on June 18.
The commitments include more than $1 billion for the PURL program, over $500 million for long-range ammunition under the Czech initiative, and about $1 billion for Ukrainian drone and missile production.

Macron said Trump entered office convinced Ukraine would eventually lose and sought a quick peace settlement, even as proposals involving territorial concessions were discussed.
According to the French leader, Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russian pressure, survive winter attacks, and keep fighting changed Trump’s perception.

Former US Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried says Ukraine’s deep-strike drone campaign is reshaping US thinking about the war.
The Foggy Bottom veteran argues that Russia is “beginning to lose,” Ukraine now has “a lot of cards,” and Putin is starting to look like the loser as Washington recalibrates its approach.

Residents across several parts of Moscow reported an unusual “oil rain” after Ukrainian drone strikes targeted the Moscow Oil Refinery overnight.
Photos and videos shared online appeared to show dark oily residue falling from the sky, with locals complaining that cars, windows and streets had been covered following the attack on one of the Russian capital’s key fuel facilities.

Most Ukrainians would rather endure economic hardship than give up their country.
A new KIIS survey found that nearly 60% prioritize Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity over higher living standards.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine, the US, and Russia are again holding informal negotiations. Among the ideas is a two-stage ceasefire, The Economist writes, citing sources.
Kyiv is in daily contact with Donald Trump's team. At the same time, according to the publication, back-channel contacts with the Russian side have also resumed.
One of the scenarios under discussion proposes first limiting military operations to a 50–70 km zone on both sides of the front line, and then moving toward a broader peace agreement.
The publication writes that Russia is unlikely to take serious steps before October, when it will likely want to provide Trump with "pre-election support" and get something in return (midterm congressional elections are scheduled for November). A source suggests that Russia will drag its feet until spring, hoping that winter attacks on energy infrastructure will force Ukraine to make concessions.
Among Moscow's key demands is the so-called "Anchorage Formula" — de facto and de jure recognition of the occupation of Donbas and Crimea, as well as de facto recognition of the current front lines in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. Ukraine rejects these demands.
Meanwhile, sentiments in Washington are shifting: Ukraine is no longer seen as the losing side, and distrust toward the Kremlin is growing.

🇸🇪🇺🇦Sweden will allocate an additional $108 million for the procurement of American weapons for Ukraine, the country's Ministry of Defense announced.
The funds will go toward supporting the PURL initiative, through which allies finance the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the US. According to Defense Minister Pål Jonson, this scheme will allow Ukraine to quickly receive modern air defense systems and ammunition.
This is Sweden's fourth contribution under PURL, bringing the total support to $543 million.
▪️In addition to Sweden, Germany announced $400 million for air defense, the Netherlands is allocating €500 million for drones, and Belgium has promised to transfer its first seven F-16 fighter jets by the end of the year.

🇦🇺Australia will allocate an additional $100 million for military equipment for Ukraine, the country's Ministry of Defense announced.
The funds will be provided under the PURL initiative. Following a $50 million contribution in December 2025, the country will transfer another two tranches of $50 million each over the next 12 months.
After this, Australia's total support for Ukraine will exceed $1.8 billion. Of this amount, over $1.6 billion will be military aid.

The US Embassy in Russia has issued recommendations for its citizens in Russia amid Ukrainian drone strikes on targets within Russian territory. In particular, citizens are advised to seek shelter.
"Once again, we advise and strongly remind US citizens not to travel to Russia," the embassy emphasized.

🇭🇺In Hungary, hundreds of journalists who worked in Orbán's "media empire" have received termination notices.
In total, around 400 journalists are losing their jobs, according to the news site Media1. Several media outlets are also set to close.
The publications affected by the cuts belonged to the Mediaworks holding company (owned by a foundation in whose creation Orbán participated in 2018). The company attributed the changes to a "transformation in content consumption habits."
The former prime minister also relied on a network of private outlets used to discredit political opponents and spread positive news about the government. In December, the European Commission launched proceedings against Hungary for violations of media freedom rules.

Laura Loomer — one of the most influential MAGA bloggers — has stated that for years she was a victim of Russian propaganda.
▪️On her podcast, she explains that she began sympathizing with Americans because "after 10 years of constant talk about Russian interference in elections, we got tired of being blamed for everything."
She now claims to realize that "Russia talks about denazification of Ukraine while simultaneously calling itself an Orthodox Christian state, yet they are killing hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainian Christians and supporting neo-Nazis in the US."

The Russians struck Dnipro and attacked the Kherson and Sumy regions — there are fatalities and wounded. Here is what we know:
🔴Dnipropetrovsk region. The Russians struck Dnipro — one person was killed, and 12 were wounded. In the region, five more people were injured in the attacks. Vehicles, a gas station, an outpatient clinic, and a cafe were also damaged.
🔴Kherson region. In Kherson and Bilozerka, a man was killed as a result of the attacks, and another was wounded. Houses were damaged.
🔴Sumy region. An airstrike caused warehouses storing residues of sulfur-containing substances to catch fire.

The Russians attacked Ukraine with 90 drones; air defense neutralized 79 UAVs. Here is what is known about the aftermath of the attacks:
🔴Zaporizhzhia. Two people were injured as a result of Russian shelling. A gas station building and equipment caught fire over an area of 15 m².
🔴Kharkiv region. Ten people were injured in the attack, including four children. The Russians struck Kharkiv with aerial bombs, as well as the Derhachi, Zolochiv, and Malodanylivka communities in the region.
🔴Odesa region. A crew member of a vessel flying the Panamanian flag was killed in a Russian drone attack. Two other sailors were wounded, one of them seriously.
🔴Kherson region. The Russian army attacked a minibus with a drone in the Korabelnyi district of Kherson. At least four people are reported injured so far.
🔴Dnipropetrovsk region. An 8-year-old girl was killed, and another person was wounded in Pavlohrad following a Russian attack. One house was destroyed, and two private homes were damaged.

Well FU Hungary.

That video is MAGNIFICENT.

I could watch it on repeat all day.

Indeed. Russia is reportedly low on air defense missiles. The one they used that hit the oil tank was likely defective, which means that it might well have been taken out of deep storage and either had expired or wasn't properly maintained. From the Telegraph:

How Ukraine found a way through Moscow’s air defences - Russia’s ‘outdated’ countermeasures allow Kyiv to humiliate Putin with technology and tactics

It could have been something as simple as a battery that needed to be replaced.

That fuel tank dome in flight seen from another angle (once the image gets approved).

While we are waiting there's a lot of footage coming out of Moscow showing just how heavy Thursdays drone attack was...and Russian forces using MANPADS in very close proximity to the civilian population.

As some have commented that isn't what winning looks like.

The strikes on Moscow remind me of the Doolittle raids on Tokyo during WWII. No real military significance, but hugely beneficial to morale back home and by putting the adversary on the back foot psychologically.

I do wonder how Putin will react. He tends to dig in deeper, not to compromise or back down.

This could be a high risk game for Zelensky - but then, what's he got to lose?

When someone has invaded your country and declared his intention of going on killing your countrymen, destroying towns and not stopping until he has taken over the whole place, destroyed all the toiwns and killed everyone, you don't have much else to be threatened with, it's true.

I do feel sorry for him. He's held Ukraine together and corralled support from the outside world when everyone was expecting him to run, and he and his family have been targets of the Kremlin. He's seen the country he loves and leads devastated, lost childhood friends and so much else. Barely seen his own family.

And now most of the country wants a change of leader, post-war.

To be fair, I think he would probably like a change of leader post war, it's been a tough few years.

They have to get there first though.

Blowing up a fuel tank will do more than that. Russia is short of fuel already.

They are short of fuel, but a tank in Moscow isn't supplying the Russian army; it's supplying fuel to civilians in Moscow. So it's certainly a problem for them, but it doesn't directly impact Russian combat power.