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Ukraine Invasion: Part 61

393 replies

MagicFox · 28/04/2026 15:57

Welcome to thread 61 with many thanks to all So many thanks to all contributors and a special salute to those providing daily updates. For the 61st time, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

**
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211
blueshoes · 03/06/2026 14:45

@notimagain thanks for your insight. Hopefully Gripens + meteor will change the landscape for glide bombs.

So Meteor is a European-made missile. Moving away from the US sounds sensible.

MissConductUS · 03/06/2026 14:50

notimagain · 03/06/2026 14:22

@blueshoes

can you explain how Gripens can counter glide bombs?

It's the Gripen/Meteor air to air missile combination that's the key.

ATM the Ukrainians don't have a fighter/missile combination that can sit back safely in Ukrainain airspace but still shoot far enough into Russian held territory to get at the Russian aircraft before they launch glide bombs.

The Meteor missile has that range and the Gripen looks like being the only fighter the Ukrainians can obtain that's compatible with that missile.

(There's a lot of politics behind the lack of platforms compatible with Meteor but that's maybe something for later).

Edited

Exactly so.

Just to expand a bit: since the geometry isn't obvious, the glide bombs have a limited range as they glide toward their targets. That range is determined by the aircraft's height at the time of the bomb release, and the aerodynamic lift the wings on the bomb provide. Let's say it's 100 km.

That means the Russian aircraft must be within 100 km of the target when it drops the bomb. The long-range air-to-air missiles will force the Russian bombers out of the airspace within 100 km of Ukrainian targets, as they won't risk being shot down just to drop a glide bomb.

blueshoes · 03/06/2026 15:09

That means the Russian aircraft must be within 100 km of the target when it drops the bomb. The long-range air-to-air missiles will force the Russian bombers out of the airspace within 100 km of Ukrainian targets, as they won't risk being shot down just to drop a glide bomb.

@MissConductUS music to my ears. Thanks for the geometry lesson!

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/06/2026 16:24

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

A Real Armenia:’ Pashinyan heads to vote with Trump’s support, Moscow’s hostility
Armenia will hold parliamentary elections on June 7, a vote most observers describe as crucial.
Eight years after the country’s Velvet Revolution, Armenia’s pro-European Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is seeking reelection for a third term, amid tensions with Russia and seemingly full support from the United States.

⚡️St. Petersburg Oil Terminal hit in major Ukrainian attack day after Russia's mass strike on Kyiv.
The attack coincided with the beginning of the 2026 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, an annual conference of business leaders and government officials hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin. [nothing boasts success in your three day war than your second city being damaged during an international conference, five years on]

⚡️ NATO chief arrives in Kyiv day after mass Russian strike.
The visit comes only a day after one of Russia’s heaviest attacks killed over 20 people and injured over 100 across Ukraine.

⚡️ Hungary’s Magyar hopeful that ‘technical talks’ on minority rights in Ukraine will wrap up this week.
If an agreement is reached at the “technical-level” talks, Peter Magyar said he is ready to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky as early as next week.

⚡️ EU weighs future of Ukrainian refugees as some member states harden their stance.
The EU is set to discuss extending Ukrainian refugee protections for a sixth time, amid thorny questions over whether and when more than 4 million refugees in Europe will return home.

⚡️Next US troop deployment to Lithuania remains 'under review,' defense minister says.
"The next rotation is currently under review ... because the number of (U.S. troops) in Europe is changing, this naturally leads to a review of regional stance," Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas said June 2.

⚡️Zelensky plans to attend G7 summit in France, Politico reports.
President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to join leaders of the Group of Seven nations at the June 15-17 summit in Evian-les-Bains, France.

⚡️ Zelensky threatens to fire officials for delays in Patriot missile supplies.
“Unfortunately, as of today, even the legal groundwork for this contract has yet to be completed,” Zelensky added. “I have set a final deadline: one week for all preparatory steps. I expect a report on Friday — either there is clarity on implementing our Patriot agreement, or there will be serious personnel decisions.”

⚡️ Viktor Orban ordered seizure of Ukrainian gold shipment for political reasons, media reports.
Viktor Orban ordered the seizure of the Ukrainian bank convoy in retaliation for the suspension of oil transit through the Druzhba pipeline, undisclosed sources told Telex.

⚡️ Ukraine strikes Russian warship at Baltic Fleet base, releases drone footage.
Boikyi vessel reportedly escorted ships from Russia’s shadow oil fleet through the English Channel in 2025.

⚡️ Neva radar, Pantsir air defense, and a tugboat — Ukraine releases latest drone strike video hit list.

⚡️Russian weapons plant in flames after Ukrainian attack in Tambov Oblast.
The JSC Progress Plant in Michurinsk, Tambov Oblast, produces high-tech aviation and missile control systems, along with equipment for gas and oil pipelines.

Russia’s chemical weapons may get out of control if we do nothing
“Chemical weapons are something the world formally banned a hundred years ago,” writes Liubov Tsybulska, the founder and current director of NGO “Join Ukraine,” in this op-ed.
“Yet today, Ukraine’s Defense Forces have already recorded around 13,000 cases of chemical agents used by the Russian forces on the front lines since the start of the full-scale war. And that number keeps growing,” she stated.

⚡️World’s largest shipping firm invests in Ukrainian port near Odesa despite war risks.
The Swiss-headquartered Mediterranean Shipping Company acquired a stake in the TIS container terminal in Ukraine’s Pivdennyi Port, one person with close knowledge of the deal confirmed to the Kyiv Independent, who was granted anonymity to discuss closed talks.

⚡️Polish far right calls for blocking Ukraine's EU bid over military unit name controversy.
Far-right opposition MP Krzysztof Bosak also said that Warsaw should stop paying for Starlink satellite communications systems used by Ukraine and opt out of EU loans to Kyiv in order to "exert real pressure."

⚡️ First responder killed in Russia’s ‘double-tap’ attack on Dnipro, State Emergency Service says.
Anton Yarmolenko was killed after arriving at one of the attack sites in Dnipro to help the victims and sustaining fatal injuries in Russia’s “treacherous follow-up strike,” the State Emergency Service said.

⚡️'Targeted strike' on house killed civilian in Sumy Oblast as Russian attacks kill 5, injure 60 across Ukraine over past day.
Sumy Oblast Governor Oleh Hryhorov said that "a targeted strike" by a Russian drone on a residential building in the Mykolaivska community took the life of a 64-year-old man and injured his 84-year-old mother.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JUN 3, 2026
■ Daily engagements & casualties below average but highest 7-day casualties so far this year; 🇷🇺 gains of 14 km² confirmed
■ Record 7-day losses of land-based equipment & unarmored vehicles; 4th highest daily unarmored vehicle losses ■ 🇷🇺 overnight attacks: drones only, with an excellent interception rate
■ 🇷🇺 drone launches & shelling above average; 13 🇺🇦 strikes & 310 drones launched into 🇷🇺

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
PerkingFaintly · 03/06/2026 16:47

Thank you so much for those knowledgeable answers, @notimagain & @MissConductUS – and @blueshoes for asking the intelligent question!

Can I say yet again just how grateful I am for these threads and the wonderful contributors here?

Brew and Cake for you all.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/06/2026 16:47

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🤬 For the first time since 2017–2018, a U.S. representative has arrived at Putin’s economic forum in St. Petersburg.
Rodney Mims Cook Jr., chairman of the Trump administration’s Commission of Fine Arts, arrived in Russia to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
He visited the Lenfilm studio, where animated films are being screened as part of the forum’s cultural program.
Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said that a U.S. delegation of this level had not visited Russia since 2017–2018 and announced that Cook would speak at a session dedicated to “dialogue between cultures.

🇺🇸 U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would like to end exemptions from sanctions on Russian oil in the near future.
According to Rubio, the final decision will be made by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, but it will depend on the circumstances at the time.
“We would like to end this as soon as possible because the primary policy of this country is sanctions on Russian oil. These are temporary exemptions aimed at increasing global supply,” Rubio said.

The shortage of Patriot missiles is creating a “window of vulnerability” that the Kremlin is seeking to exploit, according to The Guardian.
A global shortage of interceptor missiles for air defense systems, particularly the Patriot, is becoming a serious challenge for Ukraine and U.S. allies. The Patriot remains the primary ballistic missile defense system used by the United States, Ukraine, Gulf states, and several NATO members, including Germany, the Netherlands, Greece, Spain, Poland, and Sweden.
Missile stockpiles are being depleted due to their extensive use in Ukraine and during the prolonged U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran. According to some estimates, the conflict with Iran has already consumed nearly one-third of available Patriot interceptor stocks, while Gulf states have collectively launched more than 1,100 of the missiles.
The problem is compounded by limited production capacity. Lockheed Martin currently produces about 600 Patriot interceptors annually, with each missile costing around $3 million. The company plans to more than triple production, but expanding manufacturing capacity is expected to take years.
The publication notes that the shortage is already affecting not only Ukraine and Gulf countries but also NATO’s defense planning amid the growing threat from Russia.

Finland has seized Russian assets worth €3.7 million at the request of Ukraine’s Naftogaz, according to Finnish broadcaster Yle.
Citing the Finnish Enforcement Authority, Yle reported that Russia transferred the funds several years ago for the implementation of a cross-border cooperation program with the European Union. The money was deposited into an account of Finland’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment, but the project was later terminated.
The seizure order remains in force until further notice. According to the report, the measure prevents the owner from selling or transferring the assets. Since 2024, the Finnish Enforcement Authority has seized Russian assets worth more than €40 million, Yle reported.

Missile strikes on Ukraine reflect Russia’s weakness and an attempt to conceal it, according to The New York Times.
The newspaper writes that Russia’s offensive has largely stalled, forced recruitment is proving ineffective, domestic discontent is growing, and U.S.-mediated negotiations have effectively reached a dead end. According to the report, the large-scale use of drones and missiles is unable to mask the growing signs of Moscow’s weakness.

❗️The number of people injured in the massive attack on Kyiv [yesterday] has risen to 90.
Fifty-two of the wounded have been hospitalized, including two children.

❗️Russia is preparing new military, political, and propaganda strikes against Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said after receiving a report from Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine Oleh Ivashchenko.
According to Zelenskyy, Russia’s plans target Ukrainian missile manufacturers and seek to undermine Ukraine’s strategic ties with Moldova, the countries of the South Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Gulf region.
“We discussed the details of Russian missile production: facilities, distances, quantities, supply routes for critical components and machinery, as well as individuals and companies in other countries helping Russia circumvent sanctions.
We are preparing updates to our countermeasures — both Ukrainian and in coordination with our partners. It is important that pressure on Russia increases.
We also know that one of the key directions of future Russian strikes has been chosen: Ukrainian companies demonstrating progress in the development of missile technologies of all types. Russia views Ukraine’s ability to develop its own ballistic systems and localize anti-ballistic defense production as a strategic threat. We will respond.
Intelligence has also obtained new internal Russian documents on political planning, particularly regarding Ukraine’s relations with Moldova, the countries of the South Caucasus, the Middle East, and the Gulf region.
We know that one of Russia’s key political objectives is to limit our security, economic, and other strategic ties with these countries.

The first batches of Armenian goods affected by Russian import restrictions have already been exported to the European Union, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said.
“A number of business delegations are already working, and the first batches of roses and vegetables have been shipped. No goods will remain without a market,” Pashinyan said during a briefing, adding that he would name the destination countries once the shipments arrive.
Since the end of May, Russia has expanded the list of Armenian products banned from import. The restrictions now cover vegetables, including tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, potatoes, and eggplants; greens; berries and fruits, including apples, pears, quinces, apricots, cherries, plums, peaches, nectarines, grapes, and strawberries; as well as dried fruits, fish and fish products, cut flowers, Jermuk mineral water, cognac, and red and white wines.
Moscow’s concerns about the quality of Armenian products emerged amid Pashinyan’s policy of strengthening ties with the European Union and the United States.

Fire Point has released unique footage of a test of its FP-7 ballistic missile.
The FP-7 has a range of up to 200 kilometers and carries a 150-kilogram warhead. The missile can reach speeds of up to 1,500 meters per second. https://t.me/United24media/42982

🤡 The International Fencing Federation (FIE) has lifted all sanctions on Russian representatives and reinstated them to international fencing competitions.

Sochi hotels are entering the summer season with a sharp decline in occupancy rates amid environmental problems in the Black Sea and regular drone attacks, The Moscow Times reports.
Despite noticeably lower prices, the resort has yet to attract tourists in large numbers. According to the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR), accommodation prices fell by more than 15% in May, but only 25–30% of hotel rooms had been booked for the summer season.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/06/2026 16:52

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Hungary will not block Ukraine’s path to the European Union, opening the door for Kyiv to begin formal accession negotiations in the coming days, Politico reports.

German officials say a limited diplomatic “window” with Russia on Ukraine may be opening, with Britain, France and Germany potentially leading new talks.
However, the US, Russia and Ukraine remain divided, while analysts and EU officials warn Moscow may be using military escalation to gain leverage in any future negotiations.

Ukraine’s top commander, Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, has called for more efficient use of air defense missiles amid shortages and intensified Russian attacks.
He also stressed the need to expand drone interception units and deploy new technologies to counter evolving Kremlin tactics.

Ukraine is increasingly viewed as a contributor to European and global security, not just a consumer of it, journalist and author Anne Applebaum told Kyiv Post after interviewing Zelensky’s chief of staff, Kyrylo Budanov.
Applebaum argued that Ukraine’s battlefield successes — particularly its advances in drone warfare — have changed international perceptions of the country and positioned Kyiv to play a key role in shaping Europe’s future security architecture.

Russian forces continue to bombard Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region with prohibited phosphorus munitions.
Dozens of burning elements fall onto residential neighborhoods. White phosphorus ignites on contact with oxygen and burns at extremely high temperatures, sparking large-scale fires and leaving destruction in its wake.

Ukraine and Estonia have agreed to deepen defence cooperation, including the development of unmanned systems, during Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko’s visit to Tallinn.

A large fire broke out in St. Petersburg after Russian officials reported a mass drone attack on the Leningrad region. Russian channels said the Petersburg Oil Terminal was burning, while media reported flight disruptions at Pulkovo Airport.
The incident came as the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, often dubbed the “Russian Davos,” was set to open in the city.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres has condemned Russia’s latest missile and drone assault on Ukraine, which killed at least 22 people and injured more than 130.

A horrifying moment a Russian drone deliberately struck an apartment building in Dnipro was caught on camera. https://t.me/Kyivpost_official/36949

A 23-year-old Ukrainian musician, writer and soldier, Yaroslav “Varnak” Ivanov, died while carrying out a combat mission on May 31.
Known online as @radykalniy, he joined the military at just 19 and later served in an electronic warfare unit. Friends remembered him as bright, honest and deeply devoted to Ukraine.

A US Air Force pilot was shot down twice within weeks during the conflict with Iran in what military officials described as an extraordinarily rare case.
According to CBS News, the pilot first survived a friendly-fire incident involving Kuwaiti air defenses before later being rescued after an F-15E fighter jet was shot down over Iran.

A Russian missile strike on Kyiv on the night of June 2 killed 28-year-old Veronika Chuyan, the mother of two young boys. The family was sheltering in an underground parking garage when it was hit.
One son lost an arm. The other was injured. Their grandmother was also killed.
In a matter of seconds, two children lost their mother, their grandmother, and the life they knew.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/06/2026 16:58

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

☢️ The United States is considering the possibility of deploying nuclear weapons in additional European countries, the Financial Times reports, citing sources.
At present, U.S. nuclear weapons and strategic bombers are stationed in six NATO countries: Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. Washington is reportedly considering expanding that list.
Countries on NATO’s eastern flank, particularly Poland and the Baltic states, are said to be the most interested in hosting such weapons. The reason is their proximity to Russia and Putin’s repeated nuclear threats.
The discussions are taking place amid concerns among allies that the United States is reducing its military presence in Europe. By expanding nuclear deployments, Washington would aim to demonstrate that it remains committed to providing Europe with a nuclear umbrella even with fewer troops stationed on the continent.
No final decisions have been made, and the talks are being held behind closed doors.

🇬🇷Greece has sent Ukraine a diplomatic note of protest over a naval drone with explosives in its waters, writes the Greek media Kathimerini.
Greece stated that inspections allegedly confirmed the Ukrainian origin of the drone. They also claim that the unmanned vessel may have been part of an operation against Russian ships.
Athens expects Ukraine to acknowledge the mistake and withdraw all combat naval drones from the Mediterranean Sea.

In temporarily occupied Crimea, queues of cars waiting for gasoline have reached 3–4 kilometers in length.
92-octane and 95-octane gasoline are being sold only through vouchers at the peninsula’s largest gas station chains, TES and ATAN. However, both companies announced yesterday that they are no longer able to issue additional vouchers.
The so-called authorities in Crimea have promised to resolve the fuel shortage within a month. However, some media outlets report that by mid-summer similar problems could spread beyond the occupied territories.
🔻Sources cited by the Russian newspaper Kommersant claim that if the situation does not improve, fuel shortages could spread to most regions of Russia by the end of June.
🔻The situation on the fuel market has already pushed gasoline prices higher in Moscow and the surrounding region. To help stabilize the market, Russian authorities are considering restricting fuel exports to countries within the Eurasian Economic Union.

Schröder, who had been floated as a potential EU negotiator with Russia, has been spotted in Moscow, according to media reports.
The 82-year-old former leader of Germany’s Social Democratic Party is considered a personal friend of the Russian ruler. He continued working for Russian energy companies even after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Russia launched 198 drones of various types against Ukraine. Ukrainian air defenses neutralized 189 of them, although eight UAVs struck targets at seven locations, while drone debris fell at seven other sites. Here is what is known so far.
Kherson region. A woman was killed in a strike on the Dniprovskyi district of Kherson, while six other people were injured. Russian forces also attacked the city’s Central and Korabelnyi districts, injuring four more people.
Zaporizhzhia district. Russian forces struck a gas station, causing a fire that was later extinguished.
Mykolaiv region. A 65-year-old man was injured in Mykolaiv.
Odesa region. Two men were injured. A vehicle was damaged.

Llttledrummergirl · 03/06/2026 20:22

For the first time since 2017–2018, a U.S. representative has arrived at Putin’s economic forum in St. Petersburg.
Rodney Mims Cook Jr., chairman of the Trump administration’s Commission of Fine Arts, arrived in Russia to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
He visited the Lenfilm studio, where animated films are being screened as part of the forum’s cultural program.
Putin aide Yuri Ushakov said that a U.S. delegation of this level had not visited Russia since 2017–2018 and announced that Cook would speak at a session dedicated to “dialogue between cultures
.

Absolutely, total, utter, treacherous piece of shit.

blueshoes · 04/06/2026 02:54

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-3-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. The Russian ultranationalist community presented extreme and unrealistic scenarios for Russia’s military and geopolitical future at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) that likely somewhat differ from the Kremlin’s positions.
  2. Ukrainian forces conducted a series of long-range strikes against Russian military assets and oil infrastructure in St. Petersburg, coinciding with the first day of SPIEF.
  3. Russian officials have recently intensified a pattern of weaponizing alleged Ukrainian strikes on civilian targets to justify devastating strikes on Ukraine under the guise of retaliation.
  4. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances throughout the theater in the past day.
  5. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military assets and oil infrastructure on June 3. Russian forces launched 198 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2026 11:01

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine railways chief seeks higher freight fees amid Russian attacks, rising costs.
Ukraine's state railway company needs to increase freight tariffs by at least 45%, the company's CEO said, as its finances deteriorate amid Russian strikes and pressure from lenders.

⚡️Thousands of bogus Ukrainian companies involved in massive capital flight scheme, tax authority says.
More than 2,300 companies carried out over Hr 198 billion ($4.5 billion) in foreign trade transactions and then largely vanished, State Tax Service head Lesya Karnaukh wrote on social media. The majority — 1,243 companies — were involved in exporting goods. [oh God]

⚡️Ukraine-Hungary agreement on minorities clears way for EU accession next steps.
Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar announced on June 3 that an agreement had been found with Ukraine over the rights of the country's Hungarian-speaking minority.

⚡️ Update: All EU states back opening formal accession talks with Ukraine after Hungary deal.
All 27 EU member states have given the green light to open the first cluster of accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova, Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko said on June 4 after an agreement between Kyiv and Budapest cleared the key hurdle.

Ukraine hopes newly unblocked EU fund could plug air defense gap
After Russia carried out one of its largest-ever aerial assaults on Kyiv, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called on the EU to do more to support Ukraine — namely, to help the country bolster its air defenses.

⚡️Greece issues formal protest with Ukraine over naval drone incident.
Greece has issued formal diplomatic protests to Ukraine after an explosives-laden naval drone was discovered in the country's waters last month, the Greek Foreign Ministry said on June 3.

⚡️US House advances Ukraine aid bill, setting up final vote.
The U.S. House of Representatives advanced the Ukraine Support Act despite opposition from the Trump administration and Republican leadership, setting up a final vote on the measure on June 4.

⚡️Russian oil exports to Hungary, Slovakia via Druzhba pipeline return to normal.
Russian oil exports to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline have returned to normal after a months-long outage that fueled tensions between Ukraine and the Central European countries.

⚡️Hungary could host Ukraine-Russia peace talks, Magyar says.


The Kyiv Independent’s Kateryna Hodunova speaks with Mykola Bielieskov, senior analyst at Come Back Alive and research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, about the latest developments on Ukraine’s battlefield. Bielieskov explains Ukraine’s recent territorial gains, Russia’s evolving infiltration tactics, the growing role of drones and robotic systems, and why large-scale offensives have become increasingly difficult for both sides. The conversation also explores the future of Ukraine's air defense and long-range strikes, the possibility of a frozen conflict, and whether either side can sustain the war for years to come.

Road to the kill zone: With Ukrainian troops on the lifeline from Kramatorsk to Kostiantynivka
Kostiantynivka is the southernmost of the four cities of the “fortress belt,” and, as of spring 2026, the first to be entered by Russian soldiers on its outskirts, with Russian forces reportedly continuing to make slow but costly advances.

Overlooked by the Western canon: Why Mykhailo Kotsiubynskyi matters now
In an age where minds rarely know rest, the craving for true stillness feels almost radical.

⚡️ 16 killed, 86 injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over past day, massive drone assault hits Kherson.
The Air Force said Russia launched 293 drones, 264 of which were intercepted. At least 24 drones struck 11 locations, while falling debris was recorded at 12 sites.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 24m
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JUN 4, 2026

■ Engagements and casualties close to average, with the highest 7-day casualty average so far this year; no confirmed territorial changes
■ Record 7-day losses of land-based equipment & unarmored vehicles; 6th highest daily unarmored vehicle losses
■ 🇷🇺 overnight attacks: decent drone interception rate; an Iskander-M missile got through
■ 🇷🇺 drone launches and shelling remain above average; 14 🇺🇦 strikes and 260 drones launched into 🇷🇺

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2026 11:12

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

NATO sees no issue with Ukraine striking St. Petersburg on the eve of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), one of Russia's key international events, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said.

Satellite images of the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal show at least nine impact sites. Six fuel tanks were damaged, one was destroyed, and technical pipe racks were hit in two locations, according to Dnipro Osint analyst Garbuz.

🇪🇺🇺🇦Preparations for the opening of the first EU accession cluster for Ukraine and Moldova have begun in Brussels.
The Cyprus Presidency of the Council of the European Union said discussions on the official launch of the cluster are expected to continue in the coming days.

❗️The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has received a report from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant stating that the nearby Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant (TPP), whose distribution station supplies electricity to the nuclear facility, came under heavy shelling this morning.
The IAEA reported that it is monitoring the situation.

❗️President Zelenskyy announces talks and meeting with UK Prime Minister Starmer on defense and efforts to end the war
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had coordinated positions with UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer on defense cooperation and diplomatic efforts aimed at ending the war.

❗️Russia will never achieve militarily what it is demanding at the negotiating table on Ukraine — Rubio

❗️A fire broke out at an industrial facility in Kyiv region’s Boryspil district following a UAV attack, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine reported.
According to emergency responders, one employee of the enterprise was injured in the attack and received medical assistance.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2026 11:21

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The EU is preparing a new sanctions package targeting four Chinese companies accused of supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine through drone components, military-related chemicals, and assistance to Moscow’s shadow fleet.
The measures, expected to be considered by EU foreign ministers next week, also target firms in the UAE, Turkey, and Azerbaijan.
The

You are being sold a raw deal. You won’t be trained. Your equipment will be substandard. And if you are wounded, you may be left to suffer in the mud and die” — NATO chief Mark Rutte delivered a blunt message to young Russian men considering joining the war against Ukraine.

Ukraine says it could produce up to 20 million drones a year if allies provide sufficient funding.
Kyiv is seeking $60 billion in support for 2026 to expand domestic weapons production, maintain its battlefield edge and boost long-range strikes against Russia.

Former President Poroshenko on Ceasefire, 2014 Lessons, Trump, and UN
In a wide-ranging discussion at the Black Sea Security Forum 2026, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko reflected on Ukraine’s transformation since 2014, arguing that the country has broken decisively with its Soviet past, built Europe’s strongest army, and must pursue EU and NATO membership as the foundation of its long-term security.
Read the full interview on our website.

Ukraine could begin test flights of a domestically developed ballistic missile toward Moscow as early as this summer, according to the co-founder of Ukrainian defense company Fire Point.
“I expect that this summer, or at the latest in early autumn, we will begin test flights toward Moscow,” Shtilerman said.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “strategic disaster” and said Moscow would not achieve its original war aims.
His remarks came as Ukrainian strikes sent black smoke over St. Petersburg during Russia’s flagship economic forum, while NATO chief Mark Rutte mocked Putin’s vulnerability.

June 4 marks the Day of Innocent Child Victims of Aggression.
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, 707 Ukrainian children have been killed. The youngest was just two days old.
Another 2,548 children have been injured. At least 2,318 remain missing. More than 20,500 Ukrainian children have been forcibly deported or abducted.
Behind every statistic is a stolen childhood, a grieving family, and a future that will never come. Russia’s crimes must not go unpunished.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 04/06/2026 11:25

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia is capable of producing about 120 ballistic missiles per month, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
He also stated that the nature of Russian losses has changed over the past year: approximately 63% are killed, and another 37% are seriously wounded.

Negotiations with Putin, PURL, and weapons production. President Volodymyr Zelensky and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte held a press conference.
🔴Zelensky is ready to start direct negotiations with Putin right now to end the war, rather than wait for the US to finish all conflicts in the world.
🔴According to Zelensky, six countries have already confirmed that they will make contributions to the PURL program. The president also stated that Ukraine is allocating $45–50 billion per year for the production of various types of weapons.
🔴Ukraine is preparing experts for deployments to Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Romania, who will help the militaries of these countries shoot down Russian drones.
🔴Zelensky stated that due to high demand for Patriot systems, Ukraine may only receive new complexes by 2030. However, Kyiv is negotiating with other countries to have them transfer their places in line for receiving the systems.
🔴PAC-2 and PAC-3 missiles for Patriot air defense systems continue to be supplied from the US to Ukraine every day and every week, Rutte stated.

🇪🇺Already 11 countries have appealed to the EU to stop issuing tourist visas to Russians, writes Polish media RMF24, citing a letter.
The document was signed by representatives of Poland, Sweden, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, and Iceland. It states that Russians cannot travel to the EU against the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine.
According to the authors of the letter, in 2025 alone, Russians received at least 477,000 tourist Schengen visas. The most visas to Russian citizens are issued by France, Italy, Spain, and Greece.
The ministers also propose that the European Commission restrict the issuance of multiple-entry visas to all Russians, regardless of their country of residence.

Russia attacked Ukraine with an Iskander-M ballistic missile and 293 drones of various types. Ukrainian air defenses neutralized 264 UAVs. The missile and 24 drones struck targets at 11 locations, while debris fell at 12 other sites. Here is what is known so far:
🔴Kyiv region. A man was injured in the Boryspil district, where a fire also broke out.
🔴Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian forces struck Pavlohrad, setting a residential high-rise building and several vehicles on fire.
🔴Odesa region. Drone strikes caused a fire, which was later extinguished. A critical infrastructure facility was damaged.

MissConductUS · 04/06/2026 14:46

The WSJ published a great piece on how the reality of Russia's position in Ukraine is becoming more and more impossible to ignore. It doesn't seem to be moving Putin now, but it's certainly a step in the right direction.

Russia’s Elite Is Souring on the War. Putin Doesn’t Seem to Care. - Some prominent hawks argue the war is bringing diminishing returns and outright victory is beyond reach

The hawks are correct, of course. The Russians have culminated on the battlefield and are running out of resources to commit.

MissConductUS · 05/06/2026 13:25

And here's more good news. The U.S. House of Representatives has passed a bill to provide military aid to Ukraine, with 18 Republican votes. This is from the NY Times, and I think the link will bypass the paywall.

House Passes Ukraine Aid in Defiance of Republican Leaders - Eighteen G.O.P. lawmakers broke with their party and joined Democrats to deliver yet another blow to the president’s foreign policy agenda.

It's mostly symbolic, as even if it passes the Senate, Trump can veto it. But it's very telling that some Republicans are defying Trump on this issue. I think it's a reflection of growing pro-Ukraine sentiment and a perceived weakening of Trump's grip on his party. In either case, it shows broad support for Ukraine.

blueshoes · 05/06/2026 13:45

@MissConductUS that is great news from the US House. Trump seems to have lost interest in Ukraine but let's hope he does not wake up just to veto this bill.

Do you think he would?

blueshoes · 05/06/2026 14:06

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-4-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sent an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 4 proposing an immediate ceasefire along the current frontline and a face-to-face bilateral meeting in a third country to end the war.
  2. Russian officials continued to ignore the economic problems and fuel shortages that Russia is facing at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) and instead presented a facade of economic stability. [Not so easy for delegates to ignore the dense plume of black smoke from the St Petersburg port due to the Ukrainian attack - image - they must see it from their planes flying in and out of the city. How humiliating for Russia]
  3. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) demonstrated a new battle management information system for Russian forces operating in Ukraine that Russia will likely deploy with international exercise partners during Russia’s Center 2026 strategic command-and-staff exercise in September.
  4. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances throughout the theater in the past day.
  5. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military infrastructure in Russia on June 4. Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 293 drones against Ukraine overnight.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
MissConductUS · 05/06/2026 14:26

blueshoes · 05/06/2026 13:45

@MissConductUS that is great news from the US House. Trump seems to have lost interest in Ukraine but let's hope he does not wake up just to veto this bill.

Do you think he would?

It depends on how much support it gets in the Senate. If it's popular there too, he might decide it's not worth the blowback from vetoing it. He might also like the fact that it gives him some leverage over Russia.

blueshoes · 05/06/2026 14:31

Thanks @MissConductUS Fingers crossed the bill makes it across the Senate too.

DuncinToffee · 05/06/2026 15:57

It's confirmed: Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz and Keir Starmer will meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday to discuss military support for Ukraine, economic pressure on Russia and ways to revitalise the peace process.

The meeting will be in London.

https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3mnke3l7j5c2u

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/06/2026 17:13

@MissConductUS and a perceived weakening of Trump's grip on his party

Does this perceived weakening have any basis in reality?

MissConductUS · 05/06/2026 17:17

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/06/2026 17:13

@MissConductUS and a perceived weakening of Trump's grip on his party

Does this perceived weakening have any basis in reality?

Yes, he’s gotten pushback on several issues recently in a way that would have been unthinkable previously, and a candidate he endorsed in the primaries that just happened lost, showing that his influence is slipping.

The Republicans are going to lose seats in November, and that’s causing the ground to move as well.

MissConductUS · 05/06/2026 17:48

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/06/2026 17:13

@MissConductUS and a perceived weakening of Trump's grip on his party

Does this perceived weakening have any basis in reality?

More here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/us/politics/republicans-trump-fund-iran-war-elections.html?unlocked_article_code=1.n1A.RHZj.DRN69AWPN7J0&smid=re-share

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 05/06/2026 18:04

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Putin claims Russia ready to 'reach an agreement with Ukraine.'
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed on June 4 that Russia is ready to reach an agreement to end its war against Ukraine.

⚡️US House passes Ukraine aid bill despite attempted block by Republican leadership.
The U.S. House of Representatives voted on June 4 to approve legislation that would provide billions of dollars in military assistance to Ukraine.

⚡️Full text of Zelensky's open letter to Putin.
The letter lays out Putin's increasingly apparent vulnerabilities, Ukraine's growing strength, and the case for an immediate reopening of peace negotiations.

⚡️ Update: Responding to Zelensky's letter, Putin says he sees 'no point' in meeting.
"I was slipped this piece of paper. I skimmed through it," Russian President Vladimir Putin said. "Kyiv decided it was appropriate to move to a public debate, and that is wrong."
Putin also claimed the letter contained "elements of rudenes

⚡️ Romania reports naval drone explosion at Black Sea port.
The Romanian Defense Ministry said the drone was a model “used in the war in Ukraine.”

⚡️ Update: Kyiv confirms Ukrainian naval drone drifted to Romania after EW interference.

⚡️ 185 Ukrainian POWs return from Russian captivity in latest exchange.
Russia’s Defense Ministry confirmed that 185 Russian POWs had returned home, saying that they are currently in Belarus and will be receiving the psychological and medical care there.

⚡️'First such operation in modern history' — Ukraine destroys Russia's drone base at occupied Donetsk Airport.
"A decision was made to carry out systematic preemptive strikes that will disrupt enemy launches and reduce the number of enemy drones that will once again fly to attack kindergartens, high-rise buildings, and hospitals."

⚡️Update: Kyiv receives response from Trump to Zelensky's plea for air defenses.
"It's a technical matter, so we won't go into the details," Dmytro Lytvyn, adviser to President Zelensky, told reporters on June 4.
Previously, Zelensky sent Trump an urgent letter on May 26 warning of Ukraine's critical air defense shortage.

⚡️CORRECTION: House vote on Ukraine Support Act still pending.
The Kyiv Independent previously reported that the House already approved the Ukraine Support Act in a 216-204 vote. That was a procedural vote ahead of the final vote on the legislation, which will be held shortly.

⚡️ 5 Russian cargo ships targeted by Ukrainian drones, Azerbaijan reports deaths of 5 citizens.
The targeted vessels included one near the city of Berdiansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, two near Yalta in Donetsk Oblast, and two near Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Russia launched Oreshnik missile at Ukraine to 'observe' results for future use, Putin says.
Russia launched the medium-range Oreshnik ballistic missile at Ukraine's Kyiv Oblast on May 24 to observe the results for future launches, Russian President Vladimir Putin said June 4.

⚡️ The Baltics push back against doom scenarios from Western experts.
Western media and analysts’ work often “amplifies all sorts of Kremlin talking points, which does real damage,” said Edward Lucas, founder of BISC, the first pan-Baltic think tank.

⚡️ Group of Euroskeptic, radical MEPs pushes European Parliament to strip Zelensky of honorary award.
All signatories to the letter sit outside of the European Parliament’s political mainstream, with euroskeptic and pro-Russian politicians strongly represented.

⚡️ Sweden seizes vessel suspected of illegally exporting Ukrainian grain from Russian-occupied territories.
“This is the first case in which, following a request for international legal assistance from the Ukrainian prosecution authorities, a foreign court has approved the seizure of a vessel allegedly involved in the illegal export of Ukrainian goods from the temporarily occupied territories,” Prosecutor General Ruslan Kravchenko said.

⚡️Ukraine strikes Russian patrol ship in Sea of Azov, confirms damage to St. Petersburg oil terminal.
The vessel, measuring nearly 50 meters in length, was struck near the settlement of Iurkine in Russian-occupied Crimea, Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Magyar" Brovdi said on Telegram.

'What should we do?' Russians in panic after Ukraine strikes St. Petersburg
As concerns among local residents grow, Andrei Bezrukov, a political analyst and adviser to Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin, said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that Russia should prepare for a prolonged war lasting "the next two decades."

⚡️Ukraine strips 8 military units of right to conduct basic training after inspections, Syrskyi says.
Eight Ukrainian military units have lost the right to independently conduct basic training for new recruits following inspections in May, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on June 4.

Inside the campaign behind Ukraine's migrant 'influx' panic
Claims of an alleged migrant "influx" have become increasingly common in Ukraine in recent months. Although Ukrainian media outlets and government agencies have repeatedly debunked claims of mass migration, the wave of anti-immigrant rhetoric has continued growing, even fueling two small protests.
The Kyiv Independent examined what is really happening — and who may benefit from turning migration into one of Ukraine's newest social fault lines.

⚡️ Explosion at major Ukrainian postal company kills one, injures two in Kyiv.

⚡️ Russian attacks kill 11, injure 68 across Ukraine over past day as Zelensky proposes meeting with Putin to end war.
Russian forces launched two Kh-59/69 guided missiles and 216 Shahed-type attack drones against Ukraine overnight, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting 198 of the unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JUN 5, 2026
■ Engagements close to average but casualties remain massive; no confirmed territorial changes
■ Record 7-day losses of unarmored vehicles; high losses of ground robotic systems
■ 🇷🇺 overnight attacks: good drone interception rate; two Kh-59/69 missiles got through
■ 🇷🇺 air strikes, drone launches, and shelling above average; 19 🇺🇦 strikes reported (most since the end of April)

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61