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Ukraine Invasion: Part 61

393 replies

MagicFox · 28/04/2026 15:57

Welcome to thread 61 with many thanks to all So many thanks to all contributors and a special salute to those providing daily updates. For the 61st time, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

**
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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/05/2026 22:03

Mr Burns went some time ago though and was shocked at what he'd seen.

blueshoes · 31/05/2026 03:36

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-30-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russia is reportedly preparing to conduct another massive strike against Ukraine.
  2. Ukrainian forces struck Russian military assets, including an Iskander missile system, in Rostov Oblast on the night of May 29 to 30.
  3. The Ukrainian strike campaign against Russian supply lines in occupied Ukraine also includes remote mining in depth.
  4. The Kremlin is using the May 28-29 Russian drone strike against Galati, Romania, to set conditions to absolve Russia of blame for any accidental Russian drone strikes against Moldova, or possibly a false flag attack against Moldova, in the future.
  5. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to present claims about Russia’s battlefield successes that do not correspond with reality to pressure Ukraine to surrender to his demands.
  6. Russian authorities continue their attempts to find new ways to mitigate Ukraine’s growing strikes against targets deep in the Russian rear by having oblast-level officials establish a new state entity for coordinating air defense activities, which may include overseeing the establishment of new air defense units.
  7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka direction.
  8. Russian forces launched one ballistic missile, five cruise missiles, and 290 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/05/2026 14:39

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Hegseth says US will ‘find a way’ to help Ukraine after Zelensky's plea for air defense missiles.
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters on May 30 that the United States will "find a way" to help Ukraine defend itself, days after President Volodymyr Zelensky sent an urgent letter to the White House warning about Ukraine's worsening shortage of air defense systems.

⚡️Kyiv denies Russia's claims of Ukrainian drone strike on Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.

⚡️Data reveals Irish alumina factory exporting more product to Russia than government claimed.
Irish Prime Minister Micheal Martin claimed on May 29 that including Aughinish Alumina in the EU's next round of sanctions would be "self-defeating," harming Europe's economy more than Russia's — despite evidence that the factory is supplying materials to produce weapons used in Ukraine.

⚡️Authorities to introduce 'fuel vouchers,' restrict gasoline sales in occupied Crimea amid shortages linked to Ukrainian strikes.
Russian proxy authorities will implement the use of "fuel vouchers" across occupied Crimea, as well as set limits to the amount of gasoline residents of the peninsula can purchase, amid ongoing fuel shortages in the region caused by Ukrainian strikes.

⚡️ Germany sends new IRIS-T system to Ukraine as Kyiv braces for next Russian mass attack.
Russian forces launched more than 2,300 attack drones, nearly 1,560 guided aerial bombs, and 108 missiles over the past week, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Analysis: How Ukraine’s new middle strike drone campaign aims to strangle Russian logistics
Ukraine has been routinely using mid-range drones to strike Russian targets at operational depth behind the front — typically defined as between 25 andghost 200 kilometers (15 and 124 miles) from the front lines — for well over a year, with air defense systems, command centers, and ammunition dumps all being targeted.
The explicit focus on destroying Russian supply trucks and disrupting logistics is new, and has the potential to cause severe problems for Moscow, something that Russian military analysts are well aware of.

⚡️Russia's Saratov Oil Refinery reportedly struck by Ukrainian drones.

⚡️Russian brigade that committed war crimes in Bucha hit by Ukrainian drone strike, military says.
The attack struck a training ground used by Russia's 64th Separate Motorized Rifle brigade, one of the units responsible for the massacre of Ukrainian civilians in Bucha during the early days of the full-scale invasion.


In the latest episode of Ukraine This Week, Anna Belokur explains how mobilization actually works in Ukraine — and why the reality is far more complicated than viral videos often suggest.
As Russia’s full-scale invasion is well into its fifth year, Ukraine faces the challenge of maintaining a military large enough to defend the country while balancing public concerns about fairness, freedom, and accountability.

⚡️ 5 killed, 37 injured in Russian attacks across Ukraine over past day, with most casualties in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Russia launched 229 drones, 212 of which were intercepted by Ukrainian air defenses, according to the Air Force.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 4h
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — MAY 31, 2026
■ Engagements remain above average and the most casualties in over two months; no confirmed territorial changes
■ Record losses of land-based equipment and unarmored vehicles again
■ 🇷🇺 overnight attacks: all drones with a good drone interception rate
■ 7 🇺🇦 strikes reported; 200 🇺🇦 drones launched into 🇷🇺; 🇷🇺 drone launches and shelling above average

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/05/2026 14:48

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇮🇹🇷🇴 Italy will send fighter jets and 100 troops to Romania following the downing of a Russian drone in the country, media reports.
Although the deployment had been planned in advance, the incident in Galați on May 29 reportedly accelerated the launch of the operation.
The mission will be based at the Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base and, unlike standard NATO air policing operations, will focus on training to counter drone threats.
The Italian contingent is expected to arrive on June 15 and will train Romanian personnel in anti-drone tactics and procedures.

🇪🇪 Estonia has installed its first drone detection systems along the border with Russia.
The country has deployed the first stationary drone detection and monitoring systems on the southeastern section of its border with Russia and plans to gradually expand coverage along the entire land border.
The decision was made in response to increased security concerns following recent drone-related incidents.
“The first devices have been installed and are already operational. Of course, this is only the beginning. We are moving toward the creation of a drone monitoring network that will cover all of Estonia.
The recent drone incidents show that we were very realistic in assessing the risks when planning these capabilities, and that the preparatory work has paid off,” Estonian Interior Minister Igor Taro said.

🤖 American startup tests humanoid robots in Ukraine
The startup Foundation Future Industries, which is associated with the Trump family, has begun testing autonomous humanoid robots in Ukraine, CNBC reports.
According to the publication, the first prototypes are already being tested in high-risk areas for cargo delivery and transportation. The company’s adviser is Eric Trump, who has also invested in the project.
The Phantom MK-1 model can carry up to 20 kg of cargo but is not yet ready for full-scale combat use.
The company plans to deliver an upgraded Phantom 2 version to Ukraine later this year.

🇺🇦🇨🇦 Ukraine and Canada have launched a joint project to produce Ukrainian drones, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense announced.
The project involves the production of Ukrainian reconnaissance drones in Canada, with the finished systems to be supplied to Ukraine’s Defense Forces.
The relevant agreement was signed by representatives of the Ukrainian and Canadian defense ministries.
As part of the project, a new joint venture, Airlogix-Sentinel, will be established between Ukrainian defense technology company Airlogix and Canadian unmanned systems manufacturer Sentinel Research and Development.

“We learned a lot from Ukraine — specifically from how it operates. That is our top priority going forward,” US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said when asked whether the United States could become a global leader in drone warfare.

Due to the Russian attack on Dnipro, a logistics company warehouse and vehicles parked nearby have caught fire. Information on possible casualties is being clarified, Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration Head Oleksandr Hanzha said.

⚡️The Saratov refinery and several command posts were hit, while the results of previous strikes on other facilities have also been confirmed, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported.
▫️ On the night of May 31, 2026, Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck the Saratov oil refinery. A large fire was confirmed at the facility, and the extent of the damage is being assessed.
▫️ An important element of Russia’s oil transportation infrastructure was also hit — the Lazarevo linear production and dispatch station in the Kirov region, which pumps crude oil through the Surgut–Gorky–Polotsk pipeline.
▫️ A fuel and lubricants depot in Matveyev Kurgan, Rostov region, was also struck.
▫️ In addition, Ukrainian forces hit an enemy command and observation post in Begoshcha, Kursk region, UAV control points near Kalynove in the Donetsk region and Grafovka in the Belgorod region, as well as a Russian drone workshop in Donetsk.
Ukrainian troops also struck areas where Russian personnel were concentrated near Donetsk and Zhelanne in the Donetsk region.
The General Staff also confirmed the results of previous strikes:
▫️ On May 30, 2026, three fuel storage tanks at the marine oil terminal in Feodosia, temporarily occupied Crimea, were damaged.
▫️ On May 30, 2026, a gas storage facility near Yenakiieve in the temporarily occupied part of the Donetsk region was damaged.
According to the General Staff, these facilities were used to support the Russian occupation forces.

🇭🇺 Hungary’s progress on reforms under the new government will allow the European Commission to unlock €16.4 billion in previously frozen EU recovery and cohesion funds, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, Reuters reports.
Following a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar, von der Leyen announced that the EU would release €10 billion from the Next Generation EU recovery fund and €4.2 billion from cohesion funds. An additional €2.2 billion will be made available once the reform process is completed.
“This is quite a significant amount, but the Hungarian people deserve it. Thank you again for the outstanding work that has been done,” von der Leyen said.
The funds are considered crucial for reviving Hungary’s economy, which has effectively stagnated for the past three years.
The new government inherited a growing budget deficit, which the European Commission estimates could reach 6.2% of GDP in 2026 following heavy pre-election spending under former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
“We will bring this money home, as promised, to rebuild Hungary, restart the economy, restore and improve public services, and strengthen the competitiveness of Hungarian companies and small and medium-sized enterprises,” Magyar told reporters.
He added that the agreement demonstrated the effectiveness of his government’s anti-corruption measures.
Combating corruption, which the EU said was widespread under Orbán’s administration, was one of the key conditions for unfreezing the funds.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/05/2026 14:52

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

President Zelensky led a specialized strategic meeting on Saturday alongside key Ukrainian officials to coordinate the nation’s next diplomatic, military, and humanitarian steps.
The session focused heavily on managing daily communications with US and European envoys regarding the delivery of advanced anti-ballistic air defense capabilities and finalizing bilateral drone production agreements, including an upcoming “drone deal” with the European Union.

An adviser to Belarusian President-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Frantsishak Viachorka, told Kyiv Post that the Lukashenko regime, with Vladimir Putin’s support, is preparing for offensive warfare along Belarus’s western borders, including against Ukraine, and discussed whether escalation should be expected in the near future.

Exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi voiced strong support for Ukraine while speaking exclusively to Kyiv Post in Odesa.
Pahlavi said Ukrainians and Iranians share a common struggle for sovereignty and freedom, noting that the Iranian regime continues to support Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Zelensky Coordinates Special Meeting on Air Defense, Energy, and Drone Deals

President Volodymyr Zelensky convenes high-level strategic meeting to finalize Ukraine’s next steps, prioritizing advanced anti-ballistic air defense and a comprehensive “drone deal” with the EU.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/77192

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/05/2026 14:55

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, responding to Russia’s threats toward Armenia, called on the EU to “think more about security” and not leave vulnerable nations without support.
The president also stressed the importance of continuing prisoner exchanges with Russia, including implementing the 1,000-for-1,000 exchange that was agreed upon in early May.

[details]
In occupied Crimea, sales of A-95 gasoline have been limited to 20 liters per person once per day starting today.
The reported reason is Ukraine’s “Logistics Lockdown” campaign — a series of strikes targeting the R-280 Novorossiya highway, which connects Rostov-on-Don with Crimea and runs through occupied territories along the coast of the Sea of Azov.

Russia launched 229 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian air defenses neutralized 212 of them.
Another 14 UAVs struck targets at 11 locations, while debris fell at five separate sites. Here is what is known about the consequences:
🔴Chernihiv region: A 58-year-old man was killed during the overnight attack. A Russian drone struck a business facility in the Koriukivka district, destroying seven trucks in a fire.
🔴Dnipropetrovsk region: Two residents of the Nikopol district were injured. Residential buildings, a kindergarten, and a medical office were damaged.
🔴Sumy region: Russian forces attacked two communities, injuring two men. A private home was destroyed, while vehicles, educational institutions, a bus station, and a business facility were damaged.

Russian forces struck a Nova Poshta branch in Dnipro, and the building burned down completely.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
blueshoes · 01/06/2026 02:38

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. Ukraine’s mid-range strike campaign against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) is disrupting Russian logistics across the theater, from occupied Luhansk Oblast to Crimea.
  2. Ukraine may also be expanding its drone strike campaign against Russian training grounds in occupied Ukraine.
  3. Russian officials continue to accuse Ukraine of striking the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
  4. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances throughout the theater in the past day.
  5. Russian forces launched 229 drones toward Ukraine overnight.
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 01/06/2026 08:33

United 24 Media:

🫢🚢 More than half of the tankers in Russia’s shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil are deteriorating and could pose a serious environmental threat.

According to Anil Sharma, CEO of GMS Partnership, at least one-third of these vessels should already be scrapped, although the actual share may exceed 50%.

The Financial Times reports that owners of sanctioned tankers are extending their operational lives as much as possible, taking advantage of high oil prices and the profitability of transporting sanctioned crude.

🔷 Over the past week, Ukrainian drones and missiles have struck targets in eight Russian regions located 300–1,200 km from the border, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

The targets were located in the Yaroslavl, Ryazan, Voronezh, Volgograd, Rostov, Novgorod, Nizhny Novgorod, and Krasnodar regions.

According to Zelenskyy, strikes were also carried out overnight against an oil refinery in the Saratov region, as well as facilities in the Rostov region and on the Caspian Sea.

🔶 The EU may include 20 tankers from Russia’s shadow fleet in its next sanctions package, Bloomberg reports.

The sanctions regime could later be expanded to cover vessels transporting liquefied natural gas. The EU is also considering restrictions on ships that provide services to shadow-fleet tankers.

In addition, the new package may include sanctions against more banks, oil traders, refineries, and cryptocurrency operators in third countries that Moscow allegedly uses to circumvent existing restrictions.

🔷 The IAEA inspected the site of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and confirmed damage to the exterior of a turbine building following a UAV strike.

The agency added that radiation levels at the plant remain normal.

Earlier today, Russian authorities reported a strike on the plant’s transport department, claiming damage to their vehicle fleet and accusing Ukraine’s Defense Forces of carrying out the attack.

Ukraine has denied any involvement, stressing that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is Ukrainian territory and that there is no reason for Ukraine to strike its own facility.

🔶 CNN has revealed how Ukraine is directing deep-strike operations inside Russia using AI and the Palantir platform.

Journalist Nick Paton Walsh was given access to a Ukrainian command post responsible for long-range drone operations.

Screens inside the facility displayed drone routes in real time, target coordinates, and data continuously analyzed by artificial intelligence.

The PRISMA system, built on the American Palantir platform, processes thousands of variables, including locations where Russian air defenses have intercepted drones. AI then calculates new routes through the resulting gaps in air defense coverage.

A commander with the callsign “Vector” said there are several such command centers, all geographically dispersed, meaning the destruction of one site would not affect the operation of the overall system.

🔷 The self-proclaimed President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, echoed Vladimir Putin by warning Armenia to be “very careful” not to “repeat what happened in Ukraine.”

“Armenians should be very careful so that, God forbid, they do not repeat what happened in Ukraine.

In Ukraine, it all started like that. You remember it. Armenians have just emerged from one war, and they should not end up in a difficult situation because of this. There is no need to rush. We simply need to think and act wisely,” Lukashenko said.

🔶 “We try to intercept all Russian drones, including those heading toward other countries such as Romania, Moldova, Poland, or the Baltic states. If we cannot do so, we immediately inform our partners and try to assist them,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with Face the Nation.

“Russia uses drones to put pressure on NATO countries and to test their reaction. This is their typical message: do not help Ukraine.

I believe NATO’s response should be stronger.”

According to Zelenskyy, Putin compares current reactions with those he has seen in previous years and is also testing the air-defense capabilities of NATO countries bordering Russia or Belarus to determine whether they can intercept all missiles and drones.

🔷 Germany and France are increasingly discussing nuclear deterrence, Der Spiegel reports.

According to the publication, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s security adviser, Günter Sautter, traveled to Paris to take part in the first round of talks on closer cooperation in the field of nuclear deterrence.

Representatives of several other European countries also participated. Der Spiegel reports that the next meeting is planned in Germany before the summer holidays.

On March 2, Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans to deepen cooperation on nuclear deterrence. In a joint statement, Berlin and Paris said they had established a “high-level nuclear steering group” to serve as a bilateral framework for cooperation, including consultations on the optimal combination of conventional weapons, missile defense, and France’s nuclear capabilities.

According to Der Spiegel, the steering group is already planning joint exercises to prepare for emergency scenarios. Bundeswehr personnel may participate in the conventional component of French nuclear exercises and gain access to French nuclear facilities.

The first participation of German personnel in such exercises is reportedly expected in September 2026.

The German government views the French nuclear umbrella as a complement to, rather than a replacement for, US nuclear deterrence within NATO.

In addition to Germany, France is seeking closer nuclear-deterrence cooperation with the United Kingdom, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Greece.

According to the report, nine European countries have already expressed interest in French nuclear protection, including Norway, Poland, and Lithuania.

However, the participating countries are still at an early stage of negotiations with Paris and have yet to determine how France’s nuclear capabilities could be integrated into Europe’s broader security architecture.

“We still need to discuss in more detail how France’s nuclear weapons can strengthen European security,” Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said.

🇪🇺 The EU is considering freezing the maximum price for Russian oil to prevent Moscow from benefiting from rising oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East, Bloomberg reports.

The proposal would temporarily suspend the automatic adjustment of the Russian oil price cap.

Last year, the EU adopted a dynamic mechanism under which the price cap is recalculated every six months and set 15% below the average market price of Russia’s Urals crude.

The current cap stands at $44.10 per barrel. European companies are prohibited from insuring or transporting Russian oil sold above that threshold.

However, Urals crude has risen significantly in price since the beginning of the year amid supply concerns linked to the conflict in the Middle East.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, the next review in July could raise the cap to at least $65 per barrel, exceeding the previous $60 limit agreed upon by the G7.

The EU is therefore considering several alternatives, including:

▫️ suspending the automatic adjustment mechanism until the end of the year;

▫️ limiting any increase to $60 per barrel.

The discussions are part of preparations for the EU’s 21st sanctions package against Russia.

The proposed measures also include:

▫️ sanctions against additional banks, oil traders, refineries, and cryptocurrency operators in third countries that Moscow uses to circumvent restrictions;

▫️ sanctions on around 20 tankers from Russia’s shadow fleet;

▫️ trade restrictions on critical minerals, metals, and ores used by Russia’s aerospace sector and drone industry;

▫️ expanded export controls on about 20 companies from China, India, Türkiye, and Central Asia accused of supplying Russia with sanctioned goods and equipment used in weapons production.

According to sources, the main goals of the package are to further reduce Russia’s energy revenues, weaken its financial sector, and limit supplies to its military-industrial complex.

At the same time, a full ban on Russian seaborne oil is unlikely to be included, as several EU member states remain concerned about instability in the Middle East.

The EU is also discussing possible entry bans for individuals who participated in Russia’s war against Ukraine on the side of the aggressor.

🔶 Six people were injured in a massive Russian drone attack on the Odesa region, two of whom were hospitalized, according to the head of the regional military administration Oleh Kiper.

“Residential and industrial infrastructure were hit.

In Odesa, an enemy UAV struck the first floor of a high-rise residential building.

As a result of the attack, apartments, facades, and balconies from the first to the fourth floors were partially destroyed. Windows were shattered, and nearby parked vehicles were damaged. Two residents were injured.

Another three people were injured after a UAV struck residential buildings, destroying apartments and causing a fire.

Hits were also recorded on warehouses, a hangar containing wheat, and a non-operational administrative building. One person was injured.

All relevant services are working at the scene. Efforts to eliminate the consequences of the attack are ongoing,” Kiper said.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 01/06/2026 08:37

Live:Ukraine

⚡️ “We have one very serious target, with precise coordinates, and it is located not far from Belarus,” Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said in response to remarks by Ukrainian drone forces commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi about “500 targets on Belarusian territory.”

According to Belarusian media, Lukashenko also mocked Ukrainian soldiers, claiming they were “people picked up off the streets.”

He further dismissed President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s warnings about a possible offensive from Belarusian territory, calling such statements “talk” and “nonsense.”

▪️Earlier, Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert “Madyar” Brovdi said that Ukrainian forces had already identified 500 potential targets in Belarus, commenting on security threats coming from Belarusian territory.

🇪🇺🇺🇦 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that the United Kingdom, France, and Germany could represent Europe in future negotiations with Russia, he said during CBS News’ Face the Nation.

According to Zelenskyy, Russia has been losing the initiative on the battlefield since December 2025, making this an appropriate time to begin negotiations.

He also emphasized that the question of who should represent Europe must be decided jointly by the European Union and Ukraine.

▪️Since May, EU officials have been discussing possible representatives for future talks with Russia.

▪️Names reportedly considered have included Angela Merkel, Mario Draghi, Alexander Stubb, and Gerhard Schröder.

⚡️ Russia is testing its own Starlink-like satellite internet system and has already placed its first satellites into orbit, according to defense adviser Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov.

At present, 16 satellites from the Rassvet constellation, developed by the company Bureau 1440, are operating in a test mode. However, Beskrestnov noted that a functioning broadband network would require at least 200–250 satellites for stable data transmission.

He added that Russia plans to launch another 300 satellites in the coming years, followed by an additional 700 satellites at a later stage.

▪️At the end of January, Ukraine introduced mandatory registration and verification procedures for Starlink terminals. According to Ukrainian officials, this created difficulties for Russian forces that had been using unauthorized terminals on the battlefield and reduced their ability to rely on the system for military operations.

Photo: Serhii “Flash” / Facebook.

⚡️ Russians launched overnight drone attacks on Odesa and Kharkiv, damaging residential buildings and injuring civilians.

about:blank 🔴In Odesa, a drone struck a nine-story apartment building. Residential buildings in several districts of the city, an administrative building, and infrastructure facilities were also damaged. Six people were injured, two of whom were hospitalized.

about:blank 🔴In Kharkiv, a drone hit a five-story residential building. Nearby apartment blocks, vehicles, and garages were damaged. At least two people were reported injured.

Photos 1–4: Odesa. Photos 5–7: Kharkiv.

⚡️ Russo-Ukrainian Front every year compared

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 01/06/2026 08:42

Kyiv Independent:

⚡️ Lukashenko says Belarus has ‘major’ target in Ukraine in its sights.

Alexander Lukashenko also downplayed the capabilities of Ukrainian troops stationed along the Belarusian border, describing them as “cannon fodder.”

⚡️ Ukrainian drones control airspace over Russian logistic routes in occupied Luhansk Oblast, 3rd Army Corps says.

“Luhansk, Starobilsk, Alchevsk, Brianka, and Kadiivka are now under the control of the Third Army Corps’ unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs),” Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi said.

⚡️Ukrainian military strikes 'key logistics hubs' in occupied Donetsk Oblast.

Ukrainian forces struck several military warehouses serving as crucial logistics hubs for the Russian army in occupied Donetsk Oblast, the 413th Regiment of the Unmanned Systems Forces said May 31.

⚡️ News from occupied Ukraine: fuel rationing in Crimea, Storm Shadows ‘destroy’ Russian targets in Luhansk Oblast

Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea on May 30-31 have introduced fuel rationing measures after Ukrainian strikes on the land corridor connecting the occupied peninsula with mainland Russia disrupted fuel supplies.

At the same time, Russia has blocked the key “Novorossiya” logistics route in occupied southern Ukraine due to drone attacks, the 412th Nemesis Brigade said on May 26 on Telegram.

While, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant experienced a prolonged communications blackout this week amid reports of increased military activity nearby, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said May 28.

⚡️Romania confirms Russian Shahed-type drone behind earlier strike on residential building.

"The evidence identified at the scene is structurally and functionally identical to those recovered... in previous incidents involving Geran-2 type unmanned aerial vehicles," the country's Defense Ministry said.

⚡️Ukraine has limited window for negotiations with Russia, Zelensky says.

With Ukrainian forces regaining the battlefield initiative, Kyiv has until winter to effectively negotiate with Moscow, Zelensky told CBS News in a May 31 interview.

⚡️Sanctioned shadow fleet oil tankers threaten environmental disaster, FT reports.

"This is a ticking time bomb and I think everybody in shipping knows it," shipping executive Alexander Saverys told the Financial Times.

⚡️French Navy intercepts sanctioned Russian shadow fleet tanker in Atlantic, Macron says.

The vessel, Tagor, has been transporting Russian crude oil and petroleum products and is sanctioned by the EU, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine.

⚡️ These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of June 1, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 01/06/2026 08:45

*Kyiv Post:

⚡️ An adviser to Belarusian President-elect Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Frantsishak Viachorka, told Kyiv Post that the Lukashenko regime, with Vladimir Putin’s support, is preparing for offensive warfare along Belarus’s western borders, including against Ukraine, and discussed whether escalation should be expected in the near future.

⚡️ Bigger than NATO?

Ukraine has quietly built the world’s largest drone force, deploying 25,000–40,000 active combat UAV pilots and around 80,000 personnel involved in drone operations. Dedicated drone units now operate across more than 100 brigades, reshaping the battlefield and redefining modern warfare.

⚡️ France, with support from its partners including the UK, has intercepted the sanctioned oil tanker Tagor in the Atlantic, French President Emmanuel Macron said.

Sailing under the flag of Madagascar, the tanker departed Russia’s Murmansk port in early May. Macron shared footage of the operation, calling it part of efforts to enforce sanctions on Russia’s oil trade.

⚡️ Russia has deployed a fourth Pantsir air-defense system on a rooftop near the Kremlin as Ukrainian long-range drone attacks continue to penetrate deep into Russian territory.

Critics warn it could increase risks for nearby residents if missile debris falls into densely populated areas.

blueshoes · 02/06/2026 03:03

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-1-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. Ukrainian forces have largely halted the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive so far, and Russian forces in May 2026 have gained a presence in only a fraction of the territory they did in May 2026.
  2. Other sources with different methodologies are also recording a slow Russian rate of advance in May 2026.
  3. Russia’s declining gains appear to be unrelated to the seasonal weather shifts that traditionally hinder advances but is likely the result of more comprehensive battlefield shifts in 2026.
  4. Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly resisting pressure to reduce defense spending and end his war against Ukraine despite increased warnings from economic officials about the unsustainable strain his war effort is putting on the Russian economy.
  5. Putin’s unwillingness to cut defense spending and scale down his war effort suggests that Putin believes that he will be able to win the war in the near to medium term and that the Russian economy is able to hold on until then.
  6. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.
  7. Russian forces launched 265 long-range drones at Ukraine overnight.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2026 11:04

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ending Russia’s war before winter is realistic, Budanov says.
“The president has tasked us with trying to end this war as quickly as possible. I can confirm that this is indeed his goal — to bring hostilities to an end as soon as possible, preferably before winter,” President’s Office Head Kyrylo Budanov told the Kyiv Independent.

⚡️Exclusive: EU aiming to advance Ukraine's membership slightly faster than planned.
The next step on Ukraine and Moldova's EU accession path could happen slightly earlier than expected, with EU and national diplomats confirming to the Kyiv Independent that everybody is working towards June 15 as the day to open the first of six so-called "enlargement clusters."

⚡️ Russian monthly territorial gains slip into negative for first time since 2023, DeepState reports.
This is despite the group’s public map showing a Russian advance of 14 square kilometers (about 5.4 square miles) in May, due to the delay in publicly acknowledging advances by the Ukrainian military amid security concerns, according to DeepState.

⚡️Explosions rock Kyiv in Russian strikes amid intelligence warnings of mass attack.
Russia launched a large-scale aerial attack against Ukraine overnight on June 2, targeting Kyiv and cities across the country with missile and drone fire

⚡️ Update: Russia calls French interception of shadow fleet tanker ‘international piracy.’
“We consider such actions to be illegal,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

⚡️Russia demands access to investigation into its own drone strike in Romania.
Moscow has sought to deflect blame after Bucharest said a Russian Shahed-type drone injured two civilians in the Romanian city of Galati.

⚡️Ukraine strikes Russia's Ilsky oil refinery for at least 16th time since start of full-scale war.
Located roughly 500 kilometers (310 miles) from Ukrainian-controlled territory, the refinery is among the largest in southern Russia, producing nearly 6.6 million tons of fuel annually.

There is one thing emergency teams need ready on arrival, and it’s not what most organizations prepare for
“Europe is now developing the European Critical Communication System, a shared infrastructure for police, rescue services, and emergency medical responders across the EU and the Schengen Area,” writes Anton Sadykov, Chief Innovation Officer at Adaptis, in this op-ed.
“Ukraine’s experience can serve as a field test of what happens to connectivity when a team is on the move, infrastructure is damaged, and there is no time for setup,” he adds.

⚡️Ukraine capable of striking all of Russia's military logistics in occupied territories, 15 oil refineries hit, Zelensky says.
Ukraine is now capable of striking all of Moscow's military logistics in the occupied territories as 15 Russian oil refineries have been hit between January and May this year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said June 1.

In the eye of Venice Biennale’s storm, Ukraine takes center stage
The deer is an artwork by Zhanna Kadyrova, the artist representing Ukraine at this year’s Biennale. Unlike in previous years, the Ukrainian Pavilion is divided into two parts and occupies space in both the Giardini and the Arsenale — the two main locations of the Biennale.

⚡️Update: At least 9 killed, 89 injured across Ukraine overnight amid large-scale Russian attack.
The casualty count stemming from Russia's overnight attack on various Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, has grown across multiple cities as rescue effort remain ongoing.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 2h
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — JUN 2, 2026
■ Major 🇷🇺 overnight attacks: 92% of 656 drones intercepted; 40 of 73 missiles shot down; 53 locations hit or affected by debris
■ Engagements below average; highest 7-day casualties so far this year; 🇷🇺 gains of 14 km² from recent fighting confirmed late on June 1
■ Record 7-day losses of land-based equipment and unarmored vehicles; 2nd highest daily unarmored vehicle losses
■ 14 🇺🇦 strikes reported; 210 🇺🇦 drones launched into 🇷🇺; all 🇷🇺 strike indicators above average

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2026 11:37

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

😡 Russian forces attacked a hospital in Konotop, Sumy region, with a drone, according to the city’s mayor.
“It was not the fall of a Shahed, as some are reporting, but a deliberate strike. The drone was specifically targeting the medical facility,” Mayor Artem Semenikhin said.

Over 8,000 drones in a month: Russia sets a new record for air attacks on Ukraine
AFP reports that Russia launched 8,150 drones and more than 200 missiles at Ukraine in May. This is 24% more than in April, which had also set a record.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, air defenses and mobile fire groups intercepted 91% of Russian drones and missiles.
The agency also notes that Russia is increasingly carrying out daytime drone attacks in an attempt to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and economy.

The Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, which was hit on May 29, has halted operations. The AVT-1 primary oil refining unit, which accounted for about 40% of the refinery’s oil processing capacity, as well as the AVT-5 and AVT-6 units, were damaged, Reuters reports.

❗️Russia launched a massive overnight attack on Ukraine, using about 80 missiles of various types and more than 600 drones. Nine civilians were killed in Kyiv and Dnipro, while dozens more were injured.

Russian business leaders believe that ending the war is the best way to save the country’s economy, Reuters reports.
After growing by 4.9% in 2024, Russia’s economy is expected to expand by only 0.4% this year. In the first quarter of 2026, Russian GDP has already contracted.
According to Reuters sources, a potential peace agreement and the easing of sanctions could attract investment and provide a boost to economic growth.
At the same time, experts note that the Russian government currently has few effective tools to restore economic growth without favorable external factors.

❗️The European Commission has received a response from the organizers of the Venice Biennale regarding Russia's participation in the 61st International Art Exhibition and is currently assessing the information provided.
This was announced by European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier.
"We have received a response from the Biennale. The next step will be for the Commission to assess it before deciding on any possible further action. This concerns a potential suspension or termination of the current €2 million grant. We will first evaluate the letter and then determine the next steps," Regnier said.

[Yesterday], state awards were presented to the people without whom Operation “Spiderweb” (Pavutyna) would not have taken place, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. "Operation ‘Spoderweb’ destroyed or damaged at least 41 aircraft. Never before has Russia lost such equipment in such numbers and to strikes carried out by drones that were incomparably cheaper."

Spectacular photos of a Leopard 1A5 tank from the 5th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Kyiv remains shrouded in smoke following Russia’s overnight air attack.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2026 11:51

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Trump has reportedly asked Chinese President Xi Jinping to pressure Putin back to the negotiating table after peace talks with Ukraine stalled.
The appeal comes as Ukraine regains ground on the battlefield, Russian forces show signs of exhaustion, and Moscow intensifies large-scale drone and missile attacks.

Ukraine has armed some of its long-range drones with Soviet-era S-5 rockets, adding another layer to its growing drone warfare campaign.
The move comes as Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian logistics, though the concept of drone-launched rockets and missiles is not new.

Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Kyrylo Budanov says Putin fears for his life and has reasons to.
Budanov said it may be convenient to believe everyone in the Kremlin has lost touch with reality, but warned that there are still people around Putin capable of analyzing events.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan rejected calls for holding a referendum on whether Armenia should choose between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Union, saying the issue remains theoretical for now.
He argued such a vote would only make sense once European integration reaches a more concrete stage.

Gas stations in the Moscow’s region have begun rationing fuel, limiting gasoline sales to 60 liters and diesel to 100 liters per customer.
The shortages come as Ukraine continues striking Russian refineries, pipelines, and fuel depots. [Crimea's already on rationing, it was announced a few days ago]

The European Union is increasing its support for Armenia amid Russian pressure and warnings of a potential “Ukrainian scenario” if Yerevan continues its pro-European path, European Pravda reported.
“We are a reliable partner for Armenia, and our partnership is stronger than ever,” European Commission spokesperson Anouar El Anouni said.

Putin’s forces struck a maternity ward and a hospital administration building in Ukraine’s Odesa region.
Six mothers with newborn babies and a woman in labor were inside the facility at the time of the attack. Fortunately, no casualties were reported.

For the second time in its history, the Repower Foundation has brought Ukrainian military medics and doctors to the Carpathians for a 10-day psychological recovery program designed to help frontline personnel reconnect with normal life away from war.
Since 2022, Repower has organized recovery programs for nearly 2,000 Ukrainian military medics and doctors in Ukraine, Sweden, Denmark, and Spain.

A massive Russian attack on Kyiv has destroyed a Zeekr electric vehicle dealership.
The dealership, located in Kyiv’s Podil district, was one of the first Zeekr locations to open in Ukraine. Authorities are still assessing the extent of the damage and whether any staff members or passersby were injured.

At least 12 people were killed, including a child born in 2023, and more than 100 wounded after Russia launched a massive overnight barrage of missiles and drones across Ukraine.
Kyiv and Dnipro suffered the heaviest losses. Power outages were reported across multiple regions.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2026 11:56

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

May became the worst month for Russian territorial gains since October 2023, according to Deep State.
Over the past month, the enemy occupied 14 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory.
An interesting fact — Russian forces increased assault activity by 37.5%. However, there have been no significant results, as assaults are often carried out by groups of two or even single soldiers.
At the same time, Clément Molin published a chart of Russian advances showing that, overall, Russia actually lost 10 square kilometers of territory in May.

🇺🇸Cuts to U.S. aid are jeopardizing investigations into Russian war crimes in Ukraine, Reuters has found.
According to the agency, the United States allocated at least $283 million from 2022 onward to programs related to documenting and investigating war crimes in Ukraine. However, the Trump administration reduced funding last year, leading to the termination or suspension of programs that accounted for at least 40% of that support.
Among more than 40 organizations involved in investigating war crimes and supporting legal cases against Russian suspects, nearly all reported funding shortages.
The human rights organization Truth Hounds, for example, was forced to lay off some staff, suspend an archival project, and postpone training programs for judges and prosecutors. In addition, dozens of foreign experts have stopped traveling to Ukraine to collect evidence.
Reuters notes that the European Union and the United Kingdom continue to fund war-crimes-related initiatives in Ukraine, but replacing the scale of lost American assistance will be difficult.

German court: Russian conscripts are not automatically entitled to protection
The Higher Administrative Court of Berlin-Brandenburg has ruled that Russian citizens of conscription age do not automatically qualify for subsidiary protection in Germany solely because they may be called up for military service. The court overturned a lower court ruling that had previously granted such protection to a Russian citizen born in 2004.
The Berlin Administrative Court had argued that the young man could come under pressure and ultimately be forced to sign a military contract and fight in the war against Ukraine.
However, the higher court found insufficient grounds to conclude that the applicant faced a “high probability” of being compelled into contract service against his will. The ruling noted that conscripts are officially not deployed to the war in Ukraine and that one year of mandatory military service in itself does not constitute inhuman or degrading treatment.
Subsidiary protection in Germany is granted to people who face a serious risk in their home country — such as the death penalty, torture, or threats to life due to armed conflict — but who do not meet the criteria for refugee status.
German court practice regarding Russian conscripts remains inconsistent. While some courts in Berlin had previously ruled in favor of applicants, the Berlin-Brandenburg Higher Administrative Court has now aligned itself with the position of several other higher administrative courts in Germany. In March 2026, for example, a similar ruling was issued by a court in Magdeburg.

Russia launched a massive overnight attack on Ukraine using drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. There are fatalities and dozens of injured. Here is what is known so far.

🔴Kyiv. Four people were killed and 58 injured, including two children. Forty of the injured have been hospitalized. The heaviest damage was reported in the Podilskyi district, where a Russian strike hit a nine-story apartment building, causing the upper floors to collapse. People may still be trapped under the rubble. A fire also broke out in a building on the grounds of an educational institution. Residential buildings, a gas station, and a business center were damaged in seven other districts of the city.
🔴Kyiv region. Three people were injured. The most severe damage was reported in the Bucha district, where private homes, warehouses, and trucks were affected. Large fires also broke out in Sofiivska Borshchahivka and Kriukivshchyna.
🔴Dnipro. Six people were killed and 36 injured, 23 of whom are currently hospitalized. A two-story building was destroyed in the attack, and a fire broke out at the site.
🔴Kharkiv region. Fourteen people were injured in the attacks, including an 11-year-old girl. Residential buildings, outbuildings, garages, vehicles, and other civilian infrastructure caught fire.
🔴Sumy. Residential areas came under attack. Drones struck an apartment building and a private house. Preliminary reports indicate no casualties.
🔴Zaporizhzhia. The city came under a massive attack, with at least 20 strikes reported. No casualties have been reported so far.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 02/06/2026 13:18

"At the same time, Clément Molin published a chart of Russian advances showing that, overall, Russia actually lost 10 square kilometers of territory in May."

Now isn't that a cheering thought....

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2026 20:04

Well Budanov and some fairly high powered analysts seem to think that Russia's gains might contract in the coming months.

Interesting that they seem to be talking of it being over by next year, although we've been here before.

MissConductUS · 02/06/2026 20:56

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/06/2026 20:04

Well Budanov and some fairly high powered analysts seem to think that Russia's gains might contract in the coming months.

Interesting that they seem to be talking of it being over by next year, although we've been here before.

It’s possible, but unlikely to be significant. Neither side is capable of conducting maneuver warfare at this point at scale.

blueshoes · 03/06/2026 00:51

Is Budanov also saying Putin might be killed by those around him who are still capable of analysing events? Presumably by those who don't agree with the war.

FT is saying Putin could pay a personal price for failure in Ukraine:
https://archive.ph/16qkg

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 03/06/2026 07:02

For the past weeks (2 months?) there have been slightly heightened rumours of more unrest close to Putin - heightened and changed security precautions, talks of fear of assassination attempts and the implication (but not openly stated) that these attempts might not only come from Ukraine.

Iirc (my memory is appalling) this raised sense of alarm around Putin has been reported by some of the weightier media from high level leaked reports within Russia. I don't know any further details.

The little man was unreasonably paranoid as it was, he must be orbiting Pluto now.

blueshoes · 03/06/2026 13:11

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar Pluto indeed! He is going to need eyes at the back of his head from looking over his shoulder.

blueshoes · 03/06/2026 13:13

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-2-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian forces conducted yet another devastating drone and missile strike series against Ukraine on the night of June 1 to 2, heavily targeting Kyiv City. The Russian strikes killed at least 22 civilians and injured at least 130.
  2. Russia’s June 1 to 2 strikes are part of a pattern of escalating Russian strikes against Kyiv City intended to take advantage of Patriot interceptor shortages and distract from Russia’s inability to secure its deep rear from Ukrainian long-range strikes as well as from its battlefield setbacks.
  3. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances throughout the theater in the past day.
blueshoes · 03/06/2026 13:31

ISW reports on Russian glide bombs errors resulting in fatalities and damage to Russian and Russian-occupied territory.

Hopefully the arrival of the Gripen fighter jets will make glide bomb accuracy even more difficult for Russia. Nothing like Russia bombing their own territory.

@notimagain @MissConductUS can you explain how Gripens can counter glide bombs? I assume the Gripens have to take off when the Russian fighter jets take off. Is that surveillance technology available on both sides? A Russian fighter jet is a fast moving object. How long will it take a meteor long range missile to cover 200km to strike the target? To evade, does the Russian jet have to fly erratically and further back, reducing accuracy of their glide bomb? Would the Gripen try to shoot down the glide bombs themselves?

Apologies for my basic questions. I am trying to get my head around this.

🛩 The first batch of Gripen fighter jets will arrive in Ukraine within 10 months, together with Meteor long-range missiles, according to the Ministry of Defense.

❗️Russian guided aerial bombs remain a serious challenge for Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.
“We are talking about thousands, not even hundreds, of bombs every month. Their aircraft launch guided bombs both from Russian territory and from temporarily occupied territories at distances of more than 100 kilometers. We have never had enough air defense systems capable of intercepting such bombs,” the president noted.
According to Zelenskyy, Gripen fighter jets equipped with appropriate weapons — in particular Meteor missiles, which can engage targets at ranges exceeding 200 kilometers — will help push Russian aircraft farther from the front line, making the mass use of guided aerial bombs much more difficult.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 61
notimagain · 03/06/2026 14:22

@blueshoes

can you explain how Gripens can counter glide bombs?

It's the Gripen/Meteor air to air missile combination that's the key.

ATM the Ukrainians don't have a fighter/missile combination that can sit back safely in Ukrainain airspace but still shoot far enough into Russian held territory to get at the Russian aircraft before they launch glide bombs.

The Meteor missile has that range and the Gripen looks like being the only fighter the Ukrainians can obtain that's compatible with that missile.

(There's a lot of politics behind the lack of platforms compatible with Meteor but that's maybe something for later).

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