Worried about flights being cancelled

[kinkytoes]

Latest news from Lufthansa. It's not good news.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cre1r4n5j5wo

A summer beckoning filled with much looked forward to holidays. I'm sure many of us booked before the war even started.

What do we think the situation will be come July/August? How worried should we be?

(I know there is bugger all we can do about it. I just want to discuss it with others that's all.)

We actually live in Asia and may not be able to visit the UK this summer holiday, but that's not the end of the world. We will just go when the flights are available again. This won't last forever.

Simon Calder was talking about this last night on Ch 4 news. Apparently there might be fewer flights over the summer but shouldn’t cause too much disruption, then autumn will be better as we are over the ‘peak’ then winter is when it starts getting really bad and he sees most flights being grounded. Why isn’t the government talking about this?

The likelihood is you will be fine (based on current conditions.) But I like to do a worst case analysis
how much money will you claim back or lose? Will the tour operator swap you
to another destination (if relevant) - can you make this work?
Will you book another holiday? UK or driving from uk?
Would it be better to go at another time? 6 months / 1 year?
It helps me to think about how whatever happens there’s a plan to cope.

Exactly. We normally go to Europe 3 or 4 times a year but I don't think we went overseas at all in 2020 went a couple of times in 2021 and was probably more or less back to normal from 2022. We did go camping about 3 miles from home for the weekend some time in 2020 or 2021 because there was a sporting event/camping weekend, that was the only holiday we had for about 18 months.

I do remember using a cancelled flight voucher from Easyjet in mid 2023 to book flights for a big birthday holiday to Iceland so that took a while, but we didn't lose any money and we used the money not spent on holidays to pay down our mortgage, replace a car and buy some really nice electric mountain bikes. What we wouldn't have done with that sort of money was spend it on some overpriced 'we're taking the mick' shitey Airbnb in Cornwall. We'd definitely rather stay at home.

If we don’t manage to get our holiday abroad then I will just do a couple of spa /city breaks instead. I’d rather spend my money on a nice spa hotel than a crappy cottage or ££££ seaside hotel in Devon or Cornwall.
Obviously I don’t have young kids though.

Because (and whisper this quietly) Simon Calder may be wrong...he's entitled to give us the view through his crystal ball but but he seems to be offering a simplified view.of things, possibly skewed towards reassuring those taking holiday flights and possibly assuming supplies don't deteriorate further/or improve.

In short other opinions are available, and ATM to some degree everyone is guessing.

It’s pointless worrying about something you have zero control over and may not happen.

Try to focus on developing a contingency plan which hopefully you won’t have to use.

Also in a position where we have paid for flights and accommodation but not travel around the country we are visiting or various attractions. I wonder what a knock on effect this is having on tourist hotspots globally? I can't afford £500 in train fares and £200 in attraction tickets to be rendered useless because my flight is cancelled, so I am holding off booking in advance. If we end up going it could change the whole holiday for us if we can't see the reasons we were going there for!

I think the government probably are discussing it behind the scenes.

There's no point the media reporting on what might happen in winter now though because no-one really knows. It's all just speculation.

Exactly! It’s the same problem when considering whether or not to fix energy bill rates.

On a related point it does appear, according to German media, that Lufthansa cancelled flights not because of a fuel shortage, but their unwillingness to pay silly prices for it.

Exactly. The reality is, nobody knows so it's impossible to definitively plan. Things could get better or they could get a lot worse.

Plus what can the Government do? People don't get to go abroad on holiday or for business, so what? If there's a situation where UK citizens are stuck overseas, they'll help get them home. There isn't a contingency plan to provide people who can't have a week in the Canaries with an equivalent holiday at a comparable price without flying.

As individuals we just have to do what we can to protect ourselves. Book packages or refundable accommodation. Use a credit card (for the Mumsnetters who 'don't need a credit card', this is why you do). If a flight is cancelled, see if you can move your holiday to another time, use consumer rights protection to get a refund. Perhaps don't go abroad on holiday, or go somewhere by boat/train or stay in the UK. If it all really goes tits up, accept that you might lose money. In the current situation, is it really the end of the world? Remember that there's people living in war zones so be thankful that your only worry in all this is your holiday might be disrupted.

We took the decision yesterday to say ‘fk it’ and booked a week away in Europe in September. We usually do DIY but this time we’ve booked with a tour operator with the deposit paid by CC. If it goes tits up, certainly we’ll be disappointed but we’re hoping things will have calmed down by then and will look at having a plan B just in case.

We were all set to confirm & pay for our holiday: time booked off work ✅ dog booked into the dog minder ✅ adult children all confirmed they are coming ✅ accommodation researched and chosen ✅ we just needed to research the actual travel times before we paid… and I’ve come home to a letter saying that I have been summoned for jury service starting the day we are supposed to travel out.

But the million dollar question remains where is this fuel coming from ?
Why is it hard to say , x comes from here so don't worry ?

Why would winter be worse.

Now the BBC headlines are urging people not to cancel flights.

Which they obviously are starting to do due to the MSM scare stories every day!!!

The US is a major producer as is China. But the price is going to go up. Trump isn't going to ask his mates to go easy on the prices. Supply/demand is the driver here. If Lufthansa won't pay it then good. They would have to raise prices or find the money elsewhere. Probably cheaper to keep the planes on the ground.