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Thread 46 Starmer: Meloj kaj kastoroj sur monbiletoj, arbaro de kolero

1000 replies

DuncinToffee · 24/03/2026 11:48

Welcome to our long running thread for political discussion, general chit chat, a friendly hug and taxes in kind

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/_chat/5498919-thread-45-starmer-una-nacion-que-olvida-su-pasado-no-tiene-futuro?page=40&reply=151277405

OP posts:
Thread gallery
122
placemats · 03/04/2026 17:54

Boring 🤭

MaybeNotBob · 03/04/2026 22:06

Cheezus wept! Regorm really think their supporters are the most incredibly stupid people in the country!

Thread 46 Starmer: Meloj kaj kastoroj sur monbiletoj, arbaro de kolero
placemats · 03/04/2026 22:19

Oh Jerry, don't let's ask for the moon when we can have the stars!

SerendipityJane · 04/04/2026 10:46

"AI is the future"
.
.
.
Plan to Prevent Reform Being Elected
Objective
To maximise the likelihood that a Reform candidate is not elected in a first-past-the-post (FPTP) election.
Key Principle: How the System Works
Under FPTP, the candidate with the most votes wins — even without a majority. This creates a critical dynamic:

  • Votes for multiple similar candidates can split support
  • A candidate can win with a relatively low share if opposition is divided
👉 Therefore, the most effective strategy is not simply voting for your preferred party, but voting in a way that consolidates opposition to Reform behind a single viable candidate. Core Strategy: Tactical Voting
  1. Identify the Main Challenger
Determine which non-Reform candidate is most likely to win in your area. This is the single most important step. Sources of information may include:
  • Previous election results
  • Local campaign visibility (leaflets, canvassing, signage)
  • Media or projection models (where available)
  1. Avoid Vote Splitting
Supporting smaller or less competitive parties can unintentionally help Reform by dividing opposition votes. Even if a party aligns more closely with your views:
  • If they are unlikely to win, voting for them may reduce the chances of defeating Reform
👉 In practice, this means focusing only on candidates who have a realistic chance of finishing first.
  1. Focus on the Top Two Contenders
In most areas, elections are effectively decided between:
  • Two leading parties or candidates
Your goal is to:
  • Identify which of these is best positioned to beat Reform
  • Support that candidate, regardless of personal preference
  1. Use Evidence, Not Assumptions
Do not rely solely on national trends or general impressions. Instead:
  • Look for local indicators of strength
  • Prioritise recent and area-specific information
Elections are decided locally, and patterns vary significantly between areas. Supporting Evidence
  • Multi-party competition increases the risk of vote splitting
  • Recent election results show that Reform can benefit when opposition is divided
  • Projections indicate Reform gains are possible, but not dominant — meaning outcomes are often closely contested
Practical Steps Before voting:
  1. Check recent election results for your area
  2. Observe which candidates are actively campaigning
  3. Identify the strongest non-Reform contender
  4. Vote for that candidate
Summary To prevent Reform being elected:
  • Do not split the vote across multiple weaker candidates
  • Support the single strongest alternative
  • Base your decision on local competitiveness, not just preference
Final Thought This strategy is purely practical. It prioritises outcome over ideology, recognising that in FPTP systems, how you vote can matter as much as who you prefer. . . . "Not that kind of AI"
DuncinToffee · 04/04/2026 11:07

I love the image of Earth from the Artemis II

OP posts:
DuncinToffee · 04/04/2026 11:09

https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3mime3xisak2b

Channel crossings for Q1 2026 of the year are down 33% year on year, down 18% on Q1 2024

Dfficult to gauge how far the dip is shortterm fluctuations, potential impact of policy to impede, shift in push factors.

Stat declines are rarely reported. Rises + spikes are always v prominently reported.

Sunder Katwala (sundersays) (@sundersays.bsky.social)

Channel crossings for Q1 2026 of the year are down 33% year on year, down 18% on Q1 2024 Dfficult to gauge how far the dip is shortterm fluctuations, potential impact of policy to impede, shift in push factors. Stat declines are rarely reported. Ris...

https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3mime3xisak2b

OP posts:
SerendipityJane · 04/04/2026 11:12

DuncinToffee · 04/04/2026 11:07

I love the image of Earth from the Artemis II

It's been said many times that the explosion of green consciousness was due to the "Earthrise" photo from Apollo 8. Especially the fact that despite the media bollocks ("Wasn't it lucky you had your camera ready") which really annoyed the astronauts. It was very much a planned activity in the mission because .... well science

I would also add the "Pale blue dot "photo that should put us all in our place. And that place is nowhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pale_Blue_Dot

Thread 46 Starmer: Meloj kaj kastoroj sur monbiletoj, arbaro de kolero
PandoraSocks · 04/04/2026 12:14

This is a really odd story. Police who provide security for Sadiq Khan accidentally left a bag containing a sub-machine gun, a pistol a taser and ammunition outside his house.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjd8y33ze08o

DuncinToffee · 04/04/2026 12:21

And the peson who found it went straight to the S*n Confused

OP posts:
SerendipityJane · 04/04/2026 12:22

PandoraSocks · 04/04/2026 12:14

This is a really odd story. Police who provide security for Sadiq Khan accidentally left a bag containing a sub-machine gun, a pistol a taser and ammunition outside his house.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjd8y33ze08o

Depends on whether you remember all the other times the police have left guns lying around.

Efacsen · 04/04/2026 12:26

Agree it's a very odd story - not just the armed police protection officers 'losing' the bag of weapons in the street but also the behaviour of the couple who found the abandoned bag

Not odd suspicious but odd extreme carelessness and lack of concept of danger by both parties

PandoraSocks · 04/04/2026 12:29

SerendipityJane · 04/04/2026 12:22

Depends on whether you remember all the other times the police have left guns lying around.

Have there been other incidents? I honestly am not sure.

DuncinToffee · 04/04/2026 12:59

Years ago, DH and I were working in the garden and we dug up a gun. We had no idea what to do but decided to carefully poke it. We then realised it was made of plastic and a very realistic looking toy gun.

For a moment though it was quite scary.

OP posts:
DuncinToffee · 04/04/2026 13:06

Reform Wales really knows how to choose them

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c70dxwg0zq7o

A Reform Senedd candidate blamed Nato for the war in Ukraine in a social media message, saying he doubted it would have happened had the military alliance not expanded into eastern Europe.
John Clark, who has been appointed to a winnable second slot in Bangor Conwy Môn, also claimed in 2023 that Nato was trying to "bleed Russia dry", and had been using the Ukraine conflict "as an excuse".

OP posts:
DuncinToffee · 04/04/2026 13:51

Will someone please think about the marmelade

OP posts:
cardibach · 04/04/2026 14:20

Reform Wales is having a moment in the sun currently. I’m confident the selections for Westminster seats in 3 years will be equally as well vetted.

PickAChew · 04/04/2026 14:26

DuncinToffee · 04/04/2026 13:51

Will someone please think about the marmelade

Citrus marmalade, please 🙄

(of course, the frothers are ignoring the fact that you never see jars just labelled "marmalade" anyhow)

PandoraSocks · 04/04/2026 14:26

cardibach · 04/04/2026 14:20

Reform Wales is having a moment in the sun currently. I’m confident the selections for Westminster seats in 3 years will be equally as well vetted.

Yep. The number of candidates needed will be more than six times those for Wales.

I expect there will be a few stories in the coming weeks about local candidates in England.

SerendipityJane · 04/04/2026 14:35

PandoraSocks · 04/04/2026 12:29

Have there been other incidents? I honestly am not sure.

I can think of two off the top of my head ...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7597381.stm

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51383104

BBC NEWS | England | London | Loaded police gun found in cafe

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7597381.stm

Efacsen · 04/04/2026 14:40

SerendipityJane · 04/04/2026 14:35

So 2 examples in almost 20 years?

SerendipityJane · 04/04/2026 14:42

Efacsen · 04/04/2026 14:40

So 2 examples in almost 20 years?

Whatever

Efacsen · 04/04/2026 14:45

SerendipityJane · 04/04/2026 14:42

Whatever

Indeed

PandoraSocks · 04/04/2026 14:48

Yes. Two cases in 20 years of single guns left in loos. I have never heard of a bag of guns with ammo being left outside a major politician's house before.

Interesting that all cases were the Met, though.

Eta: I meant to quote @Efacsen

placemats · 04/04/2026 14:57

From the bbc article linked by Pandora above:

"Speaking to The Sun, a passerby saw the bag on the side of a road and alerted her partner after becoming suspicious.

Jordan Griffiths told the newspaper that after looking inside the bag, he took pictures of the contents, then called the police who turned up shortly after.

"When they arrived they were really shocked. They looked through the bag carefully and hurriedly took them away," he told the newspaper.

I was told they had been left there by one of Sadiq Khan's security officers, which made sense as he lives here.""

The last paragraph doesn't make sense at all!

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