Today's by-election... how do you think it will go?

[Westfacing]

A few months back according to the media it was Reform's for the taking - now it's a three-way bet between Labour, Greens and Reform

Hasn't there already been concern expressed about the number of postal votes in this election?

Monster raving looney.

Yes postal votes are open to coercion. It's across demographics usually though.

Don't be silly. All parties encourage postal votes.

lwww.standard.co.uk/news/politics/reform-uk-greenwich-house-of-commons-library-barnet-derby-b1165468.html

Too close to call. Neither a Green, Labour nor Reform victory would surprise me. What would surprise me would be a victory by a large margin for any party. A win by less than 10 votes would not surprise me.

Not by any political party

I heard a political commentator expressing concern about it last week and I didn't really understand why. Now I know!

No worries. This will probably go to a recount, although I know that the postal votes are counted first. Lines are drawn and because there's a lot of candidates, you need to keep a watch.

Here’s a boring story to pass the time.

I’ve been a scrutineer at a lot of counts when I was in a political party. (Before they all went bonkers.) The scrutineers study the ballot boxes as they’re being opened and watch as the ballot papers are unfolded and placed on the table facing upward.

The scrutineers ‘sample count’ the votes for the main parties very quickly using a pad and pencil. I used a bar-gate system in columns.

They’ll certainly know how tight it’s looking, per polling district.

The postal votes can tell a very different story from all the other votes. They (the postals) tended to veer to right-of-centre when I was active, but I imagine that may have changed now that all parties encourage it.

We need to ban postal votes.
I'm a long term postal voter.

I hope Labour do come third. I voted for them last time. Fell for their lies. That will be the last time.

Interesting that Zahawi has said publicly he doesn't think Reform will get it 🤞

Estimate is at least 4am before results, maybe longer given likely need for a recount.

I’m predicting a narrow Labour hold.

Labour
Green
Reform

This is my prediction. Green will technically win, however due to the concerns about whether the votes were cast legitimately, a raise in tension will play out within the community (we all know how SOME people who are likely to be supporters of Reform struggle to act rationally when there are rumours that Muslims have cause the problem). To defuse such tensions the results will be considered non and void and re-election will be scheduled in a couple of weeks. This second round of voting will be run more strictly and efficiently. Personally I feel that the outcome will be the same and Green will still win, but at least the government get to claim “well, we had a separate election with stricter controls”.

For what’s it worth, I think the concerns about the legitimacy of the votes are completely valid, but sadly I think the likes of Tommy Ten-Names will get involved and next thing you know, it could be another Southport riot, if the authorities don’t actually listen to people’s concerns.

On the other thread in FWR, the crazy Greens are unhappily being tipped to win 🙁

Looks like it's going green.

I think that might be a good thing. I'm not sold on Polanski at all, but hopefully a green victory will shake Labour up and make them realise that they need to stop chasing the Reform vote, because they are in danger of losing their base.

Hopefully the Green Party, ds has been over in Denton & Gorton canvassing every day since Sunday, they have had at least 1000 volunteers from other areas out door knocking every day & over 2000 there on polling day either door knocking or greeting voters at polling stations. He is at the after party now & the feeling is that they have won.

It’s difficult because Reform are either 1st or 2nd place (most likely). It’s a safe Labour seat so I would assume it would go green before going Reform, but it comes down to how narrow that gap is.

I truly despise both the Greens and Reform, but if forced to choose one I would choose Reform as I think the damage experimental socialism and destroying our constitution would do to our economy and country would be massive and virtually unrecoverable; whereas whatever hapless things Reform would do would be slightly easier to change further down the line.

I’m really hoping for a Conservative win at the next election because everything else seems dire.

I don’t care if the Greens win this seat but they must never be allowed near number 10. They’re absolute lunatics, sorry but they are. Their policies are the kind of thing drafted by a romantic but naive 16 year old - dependent on the global community being ‘nice’ and earnest and only the UK being ‘imperialist and warmongering’.

I think it's bloody insulting to suggest Denton can't run an election properly and is letting family groups go to the same booth. And it smacks of Reform's usual racist schtick as it's not white families they are talking about. Which is nonsense anyway as Tameside is massively white, yes closer to Manchester has more of a mix and the constituency spreads across several areas but Reform go on as if it's majority muslim.

They are a lot more sensible than Reform. Fucking lunatics and just disgusting with it. With more TV exposure people are waking up to what they really are.

How on earth are they ‘sensible’?! They think men can be women, they would have basically unchecked uncontrolled immigration (what could possibly go wrong when we’re overcrowded as it is?), their ‘green’ policies have fallen by the wayside, and their MPs are all utterly cringey - 35 year old overgrown sixth former types, none of whom have children.

Well done the Greens, well done Hannah Spencer. And well done Zack Polanski. He may not be a real Green, but he is certainly a very effective politician.

This is yet another disastrous cock-up by Labour. They just can’t do anything right. They had a candidate who could have won this seat comfortably but they blocked him from standing. And now they have finished third in what should be one of their own safest seats. All the speculation about Starmer’s leadership starts again now, and rightly so. Can he survive this time?

A clear demonstration that Starmer and co were more concerned about their own positions than anything else.
Hopeless.

I agree with you and reform is just as bad, let’s face it.

the absolute state of politics right now is crazy, however I don’t think there is a risk of the greens getting in to no 10, this is a low income area with a lot of deprivation, and a multi ethnic spread, it was always going to be a message to Labour, and it was never going to be Tory or reform. So greens it is.

The Greens have lunatic policies and ideas. I can’t understand why anyone wouid vote for them.
( not a conservative or reform voter myself, but honestly their actual policies really scare me, especially around drugs)
Five MPs now in Parliament.