Ukraine Invasion: Part 60

[MagicFox]

We have got to thread 60. So many thanks as always to regular contributors and to those providing updates. For the 60th time, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

**
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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The administration of US President Donald Trump is likely to extend this week the exemptions from sanctions on Russian oil, Semafor reports, citing former State Department and Treasury officials.

Ukrainian soldiers maintain the strategic initiative at the front and do not allow Russian occupiers to resume a large-scale offensive, Syrskyi said.
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that one of the key factors of superiority is unmanned forces.

Chinese refiners want to buy Iranian oil as prices fall, Reuters reports.
Chinese refiners have largely stayed away since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, which caused a sharp rise in global oil prices.
The US also temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil already at sea, which led to the disappearance of discounts on their products and further price increases.
To stimulate an increase in oil refining volumes, China has issued a new batch of crude oil import quotas totaling about 400 million barrels to independent refineries. They plan to use these quotas to purchase Iranian crude.

The interference of foreign intelligence services in the parliamentary elections in Hungary continues in an extremely aggressive and open form, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said in response to the “leak” of his telephone conversations with Russia’s Lavrov.

Russia has accused Ukraine and Norway of “preparing surface drone strikes on ships” in the Barents Sea, while Norway is preparing for possible provocations.
According to Russian claims, about 50 servicemen from the 385th Separate Brigade of Special-Purpose Naval Unmanned Systems of the Ukrainian Navy have allegedly arrived in Norway. Together with Norwegian Navy specialists, they are said to be practicing the use of naval UAVs in low-temperature conditions.
These drones are allegedly intended to attack Russian ships operating along sea routes in the Barents and Norwegian Seas to and from the port of Murmansk.

❗️Putin will not stop if he gains control over Donbas but will try to seize the Dnipro and Kharkiv, President Zelenskyy said.
“We must admit that some Americans believe that Donbas means nothing to us. They do not want to believe that Putin will lie to them and that he can continue the occupation even after such steps. Americans are sure that they can trust Putin,” the president noted.

British Defence Secretary John Healey has warned Russia of “serious consequences” if Moscow continues to threaten British underwater facilities in the Atlantic Ocean.
He said the British military had spotted a Russian Akula-class attack submarine and two specialized submarines from Russia’s Main Directorate of Deep-Sea Research. Healey also mentioned the detection of the Russian reconnaissance ship Yantar last November.

I knwo it's not really directly Ukraine-related but this UNITED24 article about Iran charging for the use of the Straits of Hormuz seemed helpful

Iran has told brokers it will limit the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to about a dozen a day and will charge fees under a ceasefire brokered during the presidency of Donald Trump.

“Ships that do pass will have to coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” Arab brokers said.

Only four ships were allowed to pass on Wednesday, the fewest since early April, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, down from more than 100 a day before the war.

Iran requires ships to agree on payment terms in advance and to make payments in cryptocurrency or Chinese yuan, brokers said.

Iran’s demands suggest it has used the war to create new leverage and, potentially, a source of revenue.

During the fighting, Tehran effectively took control of the strait, attacking ships that tried to pass without its permission.

The arrangement is being enshrined in a two-week ceasefire that the United States and Iran agreed to on Tuesday.

The United States has publicly insisted on free and open passage through the strait. But Iran has shown no sign of loosening its grip.

On Wednesday morning, Iranian forces in the strait broadcast a VHF maritime warning that vessels without permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy risked being destroyed, according to a recording provided to The Wall Street Journal by a crew member.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that traffic through the strait during the two-week truce would be under the control of Iranian armed forces. His comments, posted on social media, were widely shared by Trump and the White House.

The Trump administration’s acceptance of these terms could cement Iran’s dominance over a large portion of the world’s oil supply — about 20 million barrels per day, or roughly 20 percent.

Just six weeks ago, ships were allowed to pass through the strait without any military coordination with Iran.

The new terms change the balance of power in the Persian Gulf and expand Iran’s global influence, despite the losses it has suffered in the five-week war.

Shipping companies say Iran is already shaping a system of fees. In recent weeks, it has been working to introduce a tiered approach: ships carrying Iranian oil or goods pass freely; ships from friendly countries pay a fee; ships from countries that support the United States or Israel are not allowed at all.

Market operators say the fees are set about a week in advance and depend on the size of the vessel: for a supertanker capable of carrying about 2 million barrels of oil, the fee can reach $2 million.

“Iran’s parliament has approved a new plan for managing the strait, which includes fees and the need to obtain an Iranian permit for transit,” the state news agency IRNA reported.

Representatives of the Gulf Arab states emphasize that Iran’s initiative violates international treaties, in particular the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees freedom of navigation.

Institutionalizing such fees will be difficult. Unlike Egypt or Panama, which charge fees for passage through canals, international maritime law does not allow states to charge for transit through natural straits such as the Strait of Hormuz, the English Channel, Gibraltar, or Malacca.

“This is the kind of economic disaster that everyone could have predicted and everyone predicted, but Trump did it anyway,” said Erik Meyersson, chief emerging markets strategist at Swedish bank SEB.

“We have a paradox: complete dominance of the air and, at the same time, a complete inability to control the Strait of Hormuz,” he added, commenting on the US presence in the region.

Blocking the strait is already leading to rising global food prices and broader inflation.

It is also a key route for transporting fertilizers and chemicals such as helium, which is used in semiconductor manufacturing.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine’s annual inflation accelerated to 7.9% (www.kyivpost.com/post/73610) in March, driven by higher fuel, transport, and seasonal costs, according to official data.

Russian sources claim Ukraine is deploying AI-powered drones that are hard to detect, (www.kyivpost.com/post/73593) resistant to jamming, and capable of speeds up to 300 km/h.

Russia has threatened to retaliate against Baltic states, (www.kyivpost.com/post/73605) alleging Ukrainian drones are transiting Baltic airspace following attacks on key Russian oil ports.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities are strengthening Kyiv’s position ahead of negotiations, (www.kyivpost.com/post/73607) according to Budanov. Attacks have cost Russia nearly $1 billion within a week.

Europe has ramped up imports of Russian LNG despite the war, snapping up 97% of shipments from the Yamal project in Q1 — FT
Imports surged in March, with 25 cargoes in a single month.
EU countries are estimated to have spent €2.88 billion on the gas.

Russia is limiting Telegram to push through “unpopular decisions,” Zelensky said, warning it could mean either ending the war or ramping it up with mass mobilization.
He said a wider draft would send people from Moscow and St. Petersburg to the front, with bodies returning home.
Another possibility: the Kremlin is preparing to end the war but fears backlash from a society it has radicalised with its own propaganda.

Zelensky says Ukraine is preparing for winter using its own resources (www.kyivpost.com/post/73606) as European funding remains blocked amid ongoing Russian strikes on energy infrastructure.

Russia is preparing preschool lessons centered on state patriotism, (www.kyivpost.com/post/73613) including maps that depict occupied Ukrainian land as part of Russia and introducing concepts tied to war and “protecting the motherland,” according to officials.

US Vice President JD Vance said one of Iran’s ceasefire proposals was likely written by ChatGPT — and was immediately thrown out.
A separate 10-point plan, shaped with Pakistan and Iran, was seen as more serious and backed by Donald Trump.

France plans tougher penalties for ships suspected of helping Russia evade oil sanctions, (www.kyivpost.com/post/73601) targeting its “shadow fleet,” which uses tactics to bypass restrictions.

Ukraine’s Security Service detained a suspected Russian agent (www.kyivpost.com/post/73587) accused of preparing a weapons cache in Odesa for planned contract killings.

Ukraine introduced new olive diplomatic plates, (www.kyivpost.com/post/73569) replacing a system where Russia once held the top code, in a move officials say reflects a break from past ties.

🎙️ New episode of OFF THE RECORD is live
Randeep Sarai joins Natalka Cmoc to discuss Ukraine’s resilience, Canada’s support, energy security, demining, and meetings with returned POWs.
Watch now:
www.kyivpost.com/videos/73596

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights Thread

Kirill Dmitriev, a special envoy of Vladimir Putin, has traveled to the United States for meetings with members of Donald Trump’s administration.
Reuters reports that Dmitriev is in the United States to discuss a potential peace deal as well as economic cooperation between the U.S. and Russia.

Russia conducted a covert underwater operation in United Kingdom waters, UK Defence Secretary John Healey said.
The United Kingdom and its allies tracked a Kremlin attack submarine and two spy submersibles in the North Sea for a month before they withdrew. British vessels deployed sonar buoys to deter the submersibles from targeting undersea cables that carry vital telecommunications.
“I say to President Vladimir Putin: we see you, we see your activity over our cables and pipelines, and you should know that any attempt to damage them will not be tolerated and will have serious consequences,” Healey said.
The defence secretary added that the operation demonstrates why it is “not in Britain’s national interest” to redeploy significant naval forces to the Middle East.

Russia has deployed the frigate “Admiral Grigorovich” to the English Channel to escort shadow fleet tankers.
In March, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer granted special forces the authority to detain ships illegally transporting Russian oil. He said the UK would intensify pressure on the shadow fleet if it passed through British waters. However, Britain has not yet detained a single Russian vessel.
The Russian missile-armed frigate was seen yesterday morning sailing between two 183-meter tankers, Universal and Enigma, as they headed west through the channel. Both tankers are on the UK sanctions list. The British military vessel RFA Tideforce was trailing them.
The Telegraph also identified two more Russian tankers that passed through the English Channel yesterday in the opposite direction.

🇪🇺 The EU will demand explanations from Hungary over secret talks between Szijjártó and Lavrov.
Leaked recordings revealed that between 2023 and 2025, Szijjártó regularly contacted Lavrov and shared information about internal EU and Hungarian discussions.

Drones carried out overnight attacks on multiple regions of Russia and occupied territories of Ukraine. Power outages have been reported in Melitopol.

Ukraine will not stop strikes on Russian territory despite requests from partners, Presidential Office Head Kyrylo Budanov says.
He stressed that Kyiv is acting in its own national interest amid ongoing war, despite differing views from allies.

🇭🇺🇮🇷 Hungary secretly offered assistance to Iran after Israel’s operation targeting Hezbollah pagers in September 2024.
This is evidenced by transcripts of a phone conversation between Hungary’s foreign minister Péter Szijjártó and his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, obtained by journalists from The Washington Post.
In the September 30, 2024 call, Szijjártó said he would pass information and documents gathered during Hungary’s internal investigation to Iranian intelligence services.
Szijjártó assured Araghchi that Hungary was not involved in the explosions. The devices that detonated reportedly bore markings of a Taiwanese company, which claimed they had been manufactured by a Hungarian firm under a licensing agreement. Szijjártó said the pagers were not produced in Hungary and that the company had only acted as a trading intermediary.
The Washington Post notes that the conversation — and Szijjártó’s apparent willingness to accommodate Iran — raises questions, given that Hungary officially supports Israel and often votes in its favor on international platforms.

Overnight, Russian forces destroyed a Nova Poshta branch in Novomykolaivka.
More than 150 parcels were burned. Fortunately, no one was injured.

@PerkingFaintly seeing as Trump admires Putin, he'll take it as a compliment. Cleverly done =)

>The arrangement is being enshrined in a two-week ceasefire that the United States and Iran agreed to on Tuesday.

Not sure what was agreed. Each party (if that is an appropriate word in this strange conflict) has it's own version. Of course if there is an agreed toll system the whole law of the sea assumptions that international sea transport works under is under question.

As I type this a headline is that Vance is heading to Pakistan while Trump says the Iranians 'have no cards'. Meanwhile the Iranian message includes point 10 that is full reparations from the USA.

Strange times.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️US likely to renew Russian oil waiver (kyivindependent.com/us-likely-to-extend-russian-oil-waiver-amid-iran-war-driven-price-surge/) amid Iran war-driven price surge, Reuters reports.

⚡️Civilian casualties double (kyivindependent.com/march-saw-un-says/) in Ukraine amid escalating short-range drone attacks, UN says.
According to the report, at least 211 people were killed in March, and 1,206 were injured.

⚡️Estonia says risk of detaining Russian shadow fleet vessels (kyivindependent.com/estonia-says-risk-of-detaining-russian-shadow-fleet-too-high/) 'too high.'
Estonia will not detain Russian shadow fleet vessels in the Baltic Sea due to concerns about military escalation, a senior naval commander told Reuters on April 10.

⚡️Trump sweetens pro-Orban endorsement (kyivindependent.com/trump-sweetens-pro-orban-endorsement-with-promises-of-economic-aid-to-hungary/) with promises of economic aid to Hungary.
"My Administration stands ready to use the full Economic Might of the United States to strengthen Hungary's Economy, as we have done for our Great Allies in the past, if Prime Minister Viktor Orban and the Hungarian People ever need it," the U.S. president wrote on Truth Social two days before Hungary's election.

⚡️Ukraine brings home (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-brings-home/) 175 POWs in Easter Eve swap with Russia.
Ukraine has brought back home 175 soldiers and seven civilians held in Russian captivity in its latest exchange with Moscow, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on April 11.

⚡️European lawmakers call for rules (kyivindependent.com/european-lawmakers-call-for-rules-to-flush-out-the-russian-spies-among-them/) to flush out the Russian spies among them.
The group of MEPs, led by Lithuanian liberal Petras Austrevicius, wrote that their request was motivated by news that the Hungarian government was "deliberately sharing confidential information obtained during EU Council meetings with the Putin regime."

⚡️Poland intercepts Russian Il-20 spy plane (kyivindependent.com/poland-intercepts-russian-spy-plane-for-2nd-time-in-a-week/) for 2nd time in a week.
Polish F-16s intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft during a patrol over the Baltic Sea on April 9, Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on X.

Ukraine appoints (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-appoints-customs-chief-to-strengthen-hand-in-upcoming-imf-talks/) customs chief to strengthen hand in upcoming IMF talks
Ukraine's Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko approved Orest Mandziy as head of the State Customs Service, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said on April 10. Manziy was formerly a detective at the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, or NABU.
As part of a push to improve Kyiv's revenue collection to raise money for the war effort, Ukraine agreed to select a new permanent head of the service as part of a 2023–2025 lending agreement with the International Monetary Fund. But the selection process was repeatedly stalled.

Enough European countries now back (kyivindependent.com/europeans-move-to-prosecute-putins-aggression-in-court/) court to prosecute Putin's aggression
The Kyiv Independent has learned that, in addition to the 14 supporting European countries noted publicly by Iryna Mudra, deputy head of the president's office, three more countries are ready to back the tribunal, bringing the total to 17, above the required minimum of 16 European states.

⚡️ Russian drilling platforms in Caspian Sea (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-strike-drilling-platforms-in-caspian-sea-military-says/) struck, Ukraine's military says.
The General Staff said the platforms supplied fuel to Russian forces, as Ukraine continues long-range strikes on energy infrastructure.

What's a FOP, and why are the IMF and Ukraine fighting (kyivindependent.com/whats-a-fop-and-why-are-the-imf-and-ukraine-fighting-over-it/') over it?
The IMF is asking Kyiv to impose a value-added tax, or VAT, on individuals earning above a certain threshold who work under a status known in Ukraine as a "self-employed entrepreneur," or FOP, for its Ukrainian acronym.
The fund argues that the levy is needed to help the country raise revenue for its war effort and formalize the economy by bringing businesses out of the shadows. But the demand has sparked widespread debate in Ukraine, with many people strongly opposed to the move.

⚡️Russia labels Stanford University 'undesirable' (kyivindependent.com/russia-labels-stanford-university-undesirable-in-escalating-crackdown-on-western-schools/) in escalating crackdown on Western schools.

⚡️Explosion at fireworks warehouse in southern Russia kills 2, injures 14 (kyivindependent.com/fireworks-warehouse-blast-in-southern-russia-kills-2-injures-14-including-children/), including children.
Two children were injured and hospitalized, while four other victims are in serious condition, local authorities said.

⚡️Ahead of Venice Biennale, Ukraine sanctions 5 representatives (kyivindependent.com/ahead-of-venice-biennale-ukraine-sanctions-several-members-of-russian-pavilion/) of Russian pavilion.

⚡️Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-kill-4-injure-36-in-ukraine-over-past-day/) kill 4, injure 36 in Ukraine over past day.
Ukrainian forces downed 133 out of the 160 drones, including Shahed-type attack drones, launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported.

RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — APR 11, 2026
■ Highest casualties in the last three weeks; no confirmed territorial changes
■ Reported equipment losses include three tanks and six APVs; three air defense systems hit
■ Overnight drone attacks above average; decent interception rate
■ 5 Ukrainian strikes reported; Russian MLRS strikes above average

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russian aviation has become more dangerous and poses a greater threat to NATO than it did before February 2022, according to Business Insider.
The war in Ukraine has given Russian pilots combat experience and lessons in modern warfare. Moscow has also modernized its systems and weapons and is producing more aircraft than it loses, increasing its overall combat effectiveness.

Today, we have determined the parameters of our response to possible violations of the ceasefire by the Russian army. We all understand who we are dealing with. Ukraine will observe a regime of silence and will act exclusively in a mirror manner. The absence of Russian strikes in the sky, on the ground, and at sea will mean the absence of our responses, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

❗️“Our soldiers are returning home. 175 military personnel — soldiers of the Armed Forces, National Guardsmen, border guards. Privates, sergeants, and officers. And seven civilians,” President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

Serbia could lose €1.5 billion (approximately $1.6 billion) in EU funding, one reason being its close ties with Russia, Politico reports.
Although Serbia is not an EU member, it has been in accession talks since 2014 and is eligible for funds and grants to support legal reforms.
“We are increasingly concerned about what is happening in Serbia… From laws undermining the independence of the judiciary to the crackdown on protesters and ongoing interference in the work of independent media,” EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos told Politico.
The European Commission is assessing whether Belgrade continues to meet the conditions for “payments under EU financial instruments,” she added.
“We also expect Serbia, as a candidate country, to support us in foreign policy and to adhere more closely to our positions,” Kos said, without mentioning Russia directly.

❗️The Baltic states have rejected Moscow’s accusations that they provide Ukraine with airspace for drone strikes on Russian territory.

❗️Ukraine shot down Iranian “Shaheds” in the Middle East, President Zelenskyy said.
“We sent our military experts to the Middle East, in particular in interceptor drones and electronic warfare. And we demonstrated to some states how to work with interceptors. Did we destroy Iranian ‘Shaheds’? Yes, we did. Did we destroy them in one state? No, in several. And this, in my opinion, is a success,” the president said.

Starmer said that world leaders use WhatsApp groups to discuss various issues, including Ukraine.
“There are many WhatsApp groups, bringing together different groups of leaders. I must admit, I am not a fan of WhatsApp, because I simply get lost among the multitude of messages. But we have created such groups for various formats of cooperation, in particular on issues such as Ukraine,” said the UK prime minister.
When asked which leaders like WhatsApp the most, Starmer said it was Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb.

Russian authorities are preparing for a possible defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán’s Fidesz party in the upcoming parliamentary elections on April 12, Meduza reports, citing two sources close to the Russian presidential administration.
According to the sources, Orbán’s potential defeat would be portrayed in Kremlin-controlled media as a “color revolution” orchestrated by the European Union. Putin would be told that the Hungarian prime minister and his team are to blame for the loss, with the justification: “Even with our support, they couldn’t do anything.”

“There is no substitute for NATO yet, and that is why I am very interested in its preservation and further development together with the U.S. president,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said after a conversation with Donald Trump.

Ukraine is among the countries with the worst demographic dynamics in the world: its population has declined by approximately 33% over 25 years, from 48.8 million in 2000 to 32.9 million in 2025, according to Visual Capitalist, citing the IMF.
It is noted that, in addition to economic factors, the war with Russia has accelerated the decline.
Countries with the largest declines also include the Marshall Islands (-29%), Bulgaria (-23%), Latvia (-22%), Moldova (-19%), and Lithuania (-18%). In Russia, the decline was approximately 1%.
The highest population growth rates were recorded in Qatar (+423%), the UAE (+250%), and Equatorial Guinea (+167%).

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Zelensky’s office chief and Ukraine’s top negotiator, Kyrylo Budanov, said talks with Russia are progressing (www.kyivpost.com/post/73673) and a deal to end the war may not take long, as Kyiv expects senior US envoys to visit soon.

Putin’s “real” approval rating has fallen below 30% (www.kyivpost.com/post/73681) for the first time since the start of the full-scale war, according to Russian polling data.

Despite Ukraine eliminating as many Russian troops as Moscow mobilizes each month, the size of Russia’s forces in Ukraine is still growing. (www.kyivpost.com/post/73639)
Zelensky says the Kremlin is boosting numbers by pulling from its strategic reserve, preparing for new offensives while weighing escalation this spring.

US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials have landed in the Pakistani capital for the highest-level negotiations in years, (www.kyivpost.com/post/73721) aimed at ending a war that has paralyzed global energy markets.

US President Trump said the vital Strait of Hormuz will reopen (www.kyivpost.com/post/73711) “fairly soon,” warning Washington won’t tolerate delays as it pushes Tehran to stick to a fragile two-week truce.

Russia has fully blocked Telegram (www.kyivpost.com/post/73690) nationwide, severing access across mobile and fixed networks.
Users report failure rates of up to 95%, with the app largely inaccessible without VPNs.

Sanctions are starting to disrupt Russia’s drone supply chains (www.kyivpost.com/post/73687), with Dutch components no longer found in Shaheds, according to Ukrainian officials.
But components from the US, China, and Japan continue to surface. [oddly, we found a suspected smuggling lorry the other day smuggling electronic elements - reported it to the police. Strange little occurance]

Ukraine says a coordinated multi-service operation targeted key Russian military assets in the Zaporizhzhia sector, including an S-300V air defense system, a UAV control point, and electronic warfare equipment.
Officials say one of the destroyed systems alone was valued at around $20 million. (www.kyivpost.com/post/73663)

Melania Trump denied alleged links to Jeffrey Epstein (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/73612) in a surprise White House statement and called on Congress to hold a public hearing for survivors.

Ukraine targets five cultural figures linked to Russia’s pavilion, (www.kyivpost.com/post/73656) accusing them of pushing Kremlin narratives and justifying the war on the global stage.

“When Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons, the price the other side was supposed to pay should have been fair. I believe NATO membership was the minimum Ukraine’s leaders should have received in exchange for the nuclear arsenal. What did we get? Nothing. It was an unfair deal — and a major mistake,” President Zelensky said in The Rest Is Politics podcast.

Boris Johnson visited positions on the Zaporizhzhia front — the trip was not publicly disclosed in advance and was revealed alongside a report in Daily Mail.
After 48 hours on the front line, he said he is confident Ukraine will win.

When everything you have left fits into one car. t.me/Kyivpost_official/35897
A 70-year-old refugee from Donbas was left stranded in central Kyiv after his vehicle broke down.
Inside his car: 18 chickens, a dog — and his entire life.
He lost his wife in a Russian attack in the Chernihiv region. After four years there, he set off to begin again in Uman.
But the journey stopped in Kyiv.
Thankfully, people helped tow his car to a service station so he could continue his journey.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Vladimir Putin is trying to push Ukrainian forces out of Donetsk and Luhansk regions through negotiations, as he understands that fully occupying Donbas would require sacrificing a very large number of troops.

Russia’s frontline plans, a new batch of Patriot missiles, and Ukrainian experts’ work in the Middle East — key takeaways from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s briefing with journalists:
🔴By the end of April, Russian forces aim to capture Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Pokrovsk in Donetsk region. However, this is considered unlikely, including by UK intelligence.
🔴In a month, Ukrainian forces eliminate roughly as many Russian troops as Russia mobilizes. However, Russia is increasing its grouping in Ukraine by deploying troops from its strategic reserve.
🔴Partners continue supplying Ukraine with missiles for Patriot air defense systems. A new batch arrived in recent days.
🔴Ukrainian experts deployed to the Middle East have used interceptor drones to destroy Iranian-made Shahed drones in several countries, including those with jet engines.
🔴Ukraine has signed 10-year security agreements with three countries. Ukrainian companies will work with their militaries to protect specific facilities. Security talks are ongoing with Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain. Kyiv expects to receive oil that will be refined at European facilities or ready-made diesel.
🔴Russia is restricting Telegram to push through unpopular decisions. This could signal either moves toward ending the war or, наоборот, escalation and expanded mobilization.
🔴If Russia chooses de-escalation, a trilateral meeting could take place. Russia is likely to push for it in April, May, or June.
🔴Ukraine will face a particularly difficult period until September — both on the battlefield and diplomatically — as the United States shifts more focus toward elections with the start of summer.

Dmitry Medvedev has been appointed chief editor of Russian high school social studies textbooks, Russia’s Ministry of Education said.

🇺🇳Civilian casualties in Ukraine rose by 49% in March compared to February, the UN reported.
Short-range drone attacks caused the highest number of deaths in March — 66 victims. In total, at least 211 people were killed and 1,206 injured during the month.
Civilian casualties were recorded in 19 regions of Ukraine and in Kyiv. In the first nine days of April alone, at least 46 civilians were killed and 343 injured.
▪️According to the UN, since the start of the full-scale war, at least 15,578 civilians have been killed, including 784 children. Another 43,352 people have been injured, including 2,668 children.

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has detained a foreign hitman who attempted to assassinate a senior Navy official.
According to the investigation, the attacker waited for the target near a residential complex where he lives. The hitman pretended to be repairing a bicycle, then threw it under the military officer’s car and attempted to open fire. He was detained at that moment.
The SBU identified the suspect as a 37-year-old resident of a Balkan country who had been recruited by Russian intelligence. After arriving in Odesa, he located a weapons cache, tracked the target, and coordinated the assassination attempt location with a Russian handler. He now faces up to 12 years in prison.

Russia launched 160 drones at Ukraine overnight, with air defenses downing 133 of them.
Another 20 attack UAVs struck targets across 10 locations. Here’s what is known about the consequences in the regions:
🔴Sumy. Late in the evening, Russian forces twice struck residential buildings in the city. At least 17 people were injured, including a 14-year-old boy. Most of the victims are elderly
🔴Odesa. A Russian drone hit a residential area — two people were killed and two injured. Dozens of buildings were damaged, along with energy, industrial, and transport infrastructure
🔴Poltava region. One person was killed and another injured in the Lubny district due to falling drone debris.
🔴Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian forces attacked two districts more than 10 times using drones and artillery. Homes, a business, and vehicles were damaged.
🔴Kharkiv region. Russian forces struck an administrative building in the settlement of Velykyi Burluk. A fire broke out, but no one was injured

Can’t believe Trump is now offering to prop up Orban with financial incentives whilst Vance witters about European ‘interference’ in Hungary’s election. 🤯 Struggling to get my head round just how much the current USA administration hates their former European allies.
God I hope the Hungarian people make the right decision tomorrow despite the Russian and American interference and the gerrymandering that has gone on to keep Orban in power. Tbh I’m not sure I would believe a vote that kept him in power wasn’t tampered with now anyway. Too many vested interests.

The Hungarian people don't have much chance do they? Russian interferece from one side, US from the other ... Well, Russian and US interference both working on the same side, actually.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Record turnout marks (kyivindependent.com/record-voter-turnout-marks-start-of-hungarys-decisive-parliamentary-elections/) start of Hungary’s decisive parliamentary elections
Record turnout marked the start of Hungary's parliamentary election on April 12, in a vote expected to shape Hungary's future relationship with the European Union and Russia.

⚡️US lawmakers allege European Commission interference, censorship (kyivindependent.com/us-lawmakers-allege-european-commission-interference-hungary-election/) ahead of Hungary election.
With Hungary's closely watched parliamentary elections just a day away, U.S. lawmakers have accused the European Commission of attempting to influence the vote through its regulation of online platforms. [oh aye?]

⚡️Russia violates Easter ceasefire (kyivindependent.com/russia-violates-easter-ceasefire-more-than-400-times/) more than 400 times, Ukraine's military says.
Russia has violated a recently announced Easter ceasefire more than 400 times since it took effect at 4:00 p.m. local time, Ukraine's General Staff said April 11.

⚡️Ukraine ready (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-ready-to-extend-ceasefire-with-russia-zelensky-says/) to extend Easter ceasefire with Russia, Zelensky says.

Russia is giving (kyivindependent.com/russia-is-giving-its-masterclass-in-election-interference-ahead-of-hungarys-vote/) its masterclass in election interference ahead of Hungary's vote
"In Hungarian elections this year, the Kremlin has bundled everything into one package and added an element never before deployed at this scale: the systematic attribution of its own operations to Ukraine," writes Liubov Tsybulska, Founder and current director of NGO "Join Ukraine", in her op-ed.
"The central device — the false flag, the masquerade as Ukraine — serves a dual purpose. First, to mobilize the Hungarian voter through fear of an "aggressive neighbor." Second — to destroy any possibility of normalizing Ukrainian-Hungarian relations, regardless of who wins the election."

Ukrainian partisans sabotage (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-partisans-sabotage-railway-hub-supplying-russian-forces-in-occupied-zaporizhzhia-oblast-group-says/) locomotive supplying Russian forces in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, group says
The pro-Ukrainian partisan group Atesh sabotaged a diesel locomotive in Russia's Rostov Oblast, which it said was used to transport military cargo to Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the group claimed on April 12.

⚡️Russian airstrike injures (kyivindependent.com/russian-bomb-attack-on-kramatorsk-in-donetsk-oblast-injures-at-least-10/) at least 10 in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian troops dropped three glide bombs on the city of Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast on April 11, injuring at least 10 people, Governor Vadym Filashkin said.

⚡️Russian drone strikes (kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-strikes-ambulance-in-northeastern-ukraine-injuring-3-medics-despite-easter-ceasefire/) ambulance in northeastern Ukraine, injuring 3 paramedics despite Easter ceasefire.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

@ragnarbjartur
· RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — APR 12, 2026
■ Fewer engagements and casualties slightly below average; no confirmed territorial changes
■ Drone losses slightly above average; eight tank losses, with artillery losses well above average
■ Overview of overnight attacks not released at the time of writing
■ 6 🇺🇦 strikes reported; 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes remain above average

I can't get over Russia and the US both trying to bribe Hungary, both influencing the elections and both claiming that Ukraine and the EC are the ones interfering. Truly 1984-esque.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇸🇪 Swedish fighter jet tracks Russian submarine heading toward the Baltic Sea
A JAS 39 Gripen in the Kattegat Strait spotted a Russian Kilo-class submarine heading toward the Baltic Sea, the Swedish Armed Forces said.
The incident occurred on April 10. Sweden is currently tracking the submarine’s route together with its allies.
The agency noted that this is part of planned security monitoring measures in the region.

Britain is developing a large-scale war preparedness plan, according to Sky News.
The head of the armed forces, Richard Knighton, told the publication. The strategy предусматривает the transition of the country to a war footing — from the army and police to hospitals, industry, and critical infrastructure.
According to Knighton, the document will be based on the experience of the Cold War, but adapted to modern threats and infrastructure.
The plan focuses on the resilience of critical infrastructure — power plants, water supply, and other systems — not only to natural disasters but also to the possibility of war. The authorities also aim to prepare the population for new risks.
“The relative peace Britain has enjoyed for the past 30 years is increasingly under threat,” Knighton said.

Patriotism, strong families, and the “unity of peoples” must now be reflected in every film made with public funding in Russia.
The Russian Cinema Fund has published guidelines listing 17 “spiritual and moral values” that such films must follow.
The requirements include patriotism, service to the Fatherland, strong families, collectivism, historical memory, and the “unity of the peoples of Russia.” The list also includes human rights and freedoms, dignity, humanism, compassion, and justice.
Starting March 1, 2026, films that, according to the authorities, “discredit traditional values” will be banned from screening in Russia.

According to the General Staff, as of the morning of April 12, 2,299 violations of the ceasefire regime, which began at 16:00 the previous day, were recorded.
In particular, there were 28 enemy assault actions, 479 instances of shelling, 747 strikes by suicide drones (“Lancet”, “Molniya”), and 1,045 strikes by FPV drones.
No strikes by missiles, guided bombs, or Shahed UAVs were recorded.

In Kherson on April 11, Russians attacked a minibus and a trolleybus. The trolleybus driver was killed, and there were injuries from other attacks.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Trump threatened Beijing with severe consequences (www.kyivpost.com/post/73762) following intelligence reports that China is preparing to deliver air defense systems to Tehran during the ceasefire.

Happy Easter to everyone celebrating today.
As Russia’s war against Ukraine continues, many Ukrainians are unable to spend this day with their families as they defend their country, and millions continue to hold on to the belief that peace and justice will prevail.
Easter is a time of faith, renewal, and hope. May this day bring hope, love, and strength to every home.

I found you all! Very sad to see Part 60. I was hoping it would have all be over a long time ago.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-11-2026/

Key Takeaways

1. The Kremlin’s unilateral short-term, theater-wide ceasefire over the Orthodox Easter holiday came into effect at 1600 local time on April 11, and both Ukrainian and Russian sources accused each other of limited violations in the first hours of the ceasefire.
2. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) has reportedly taken control of seven of eight Russian pre-trial detention centers (SIZOs) as part of the Kremlin’s broader effort to strengthen the internal security apparatus.
3. Available independent reporting indicates that Russia’s systematic use of short-range first-person view (FPV) drones against civilians in Ukraine is likely partially responsible for the increase in civilian casualties in the war in Ukraine.
4. Ukraine and Russia conducted civilian prisoner and prisoner of war (POW) exchanges on April 11.
5. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in the Hulyaipole and Novopavlivka directions.
6. Ukrainian forces struck oil infrastructure in Russia. Russian forces launched 160 long-range strike drones against Ukraine.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Sweden has detained a cargo vessel that was traveling from Spain to Russia.
The ship was stopped on suspicion of violating environmental regulations — Swedish Coast Guard aviation recorded that the Panama-flagged bulk carrier was dumping coal residues into the sea.
“We want to question the ship’s captain and notify him of suspicion. We’ll see whether this results in a court order or a fine,” said Håkan Andersson, senior duty prosecutor at the National Unit for Environmental Crimes.

Over 100,000 people gathered in Budapest for an anti-government concert ahead of the elections, AP reports.
A nearly seven-hour concert took place at Heroes’ Square, featuring around 50 bands and performers. The event was organized by the Civil Resistance Movement.
During the performances, speakers criticized the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Organizers said they wanted to show voters that the “era of impunity is coming to an end.”
Many participants, including a large number of young people, chanted anti-government slogans, including “Ruszkik haza!” (“Russians go home!”) — a slogan dating back to the 1956 Hungarian Revolution.
▪️In Hungary, most members of parliament are elected in single-member districts, while others are chosen through party lists. Rural districts tend to have fewer voters than urban ones, meaning rural votes carry more weight. This gives Orbán’s party an advantage, as it enjoys stronger support in rural areas.

🇭🇺 Tens of thousands of people gathered in central Debrecen to protest against Viktor Orbán and support his opponent in the elections.

Among the Ukrainian servicemen released [yesterday] are 25 officers whom Russia had previously categorically refused to exchange, the Coordination Headquarters reported.
More than half of the freed defenders were captured by Russian forces during the defense of Mariupol. The youngest is 22 years old, the oldest is 63. Seven Ukrainian civilians, who had been held captive by Russia since 2022, have also returned home.
The exchange was facilitated by the United States and the UAE.
Photo: Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War / Telegram

Welcome back 👋 Sad that we are still here indeed, over 4 years now (if you don’t include the annexation of Crimea) if it’s still going on in June it will have outlasted the First World War!

Orban is out! Finally some good news.

Yes!!! Anything has got to be better than Orban. Nice to know neither russia nor America could change the vote of the people.

Good news!

The other guy was in Orban's party, though; is he terrifically better now than he was then?

I'm not sure that he'll be any more friendly to Ukraine.

He can't be worse than Orban though. Presumably it is an opportunity for the EC to bulldoze through Orban's vetos.