Mumsnetters voting Reform

[Illjustplayostrich]

Mumsnet mothers have always leaned Labour. Now Reform is ahead

https://www.thetimes.com/article/dbd39087-465c-4587-9eaa-292606ffb775?shareToken=a99daa444e8bc0f9444cca2bf01f3851

I'm slightly startled by this. I'm a centrist, slightly more right leaning perhaps but frankly I'm open to any government who will get a firm grip on the public finances and go about growing the economy in a sustainable way. My impression of this site is that it's definitely more left leaning and and Reform enthusiasts tend to get shouted down. Personally, I think we should be talking about them a lot more as it's highly likely they will form part of the next government.

My impression is that they are promising the earth but don't have people with the necessary skill set to make that happen. I really worry that they will get voted in and find out that they can't fix all the problems within 18 months, leading to yet more disillusionment amongst voters.

It does rather look like Labour are clinging on to power. It is the same strategy as delaying the budget to the last possible minute and praying to the god of incompetent politicians for a miracle.

If anyone is still in doubt about who some elements of Reform supporters are and that Farage will have a problem leading a united membership, then take a look at the comments on Reform’s announcement of Laila Cunningham as London Mayor - daughter of Egyptian immigrant parents, Muslim and ex-Tory. The racism and Islamophobia is there for all to see (just as it was when Yusuf briefly resigned). There’s a loud, core group of their supporters raging that it isn’t Ant Middleton - the Dubai resident who has a conviction for attacking two female police officers and is banned from being a company director due to tax evasion.

30% of the country support reform. It is a broad group of people from all walks of life.

Are you suggesting that Starmer has a united membership at the moment? Really? He has to flip flop his "policies" all the time at the whims of his backbenchers. I think we will see less hokey cokey decision making with Farage.

You’re right Labour have their own issues with this, plus a leader trying to convince the rest not to oust him.

No, I don’t think Starmer has a united membership, but I also don’t think Starmer, or other party leaders for that matter, are under pressure to pander to racists and Islamophobes who would rather see a white man with a conviction of violence against female police officers as Mayor of London, rather than a Muslim woman with immigrant parents.

Where are you seeing this, on X?

Given Laila Cunningham got the candidacy they’re not being pandered to.

No they have to pander to councils who turned a blind eye to rape gangs and tackle systemic anti-semitism.

Not forgetting the vested interests of their Union funders.......

In a way Cunningham is an interesting choice. It reflects that Khan is actually well liked by Londoners and is politically successful. He is. Middleton would not have been a credible or competitive candidate. Cunningham appeals to who?

The other point is the two child benefit cap. Reform oppose this being lifted. And the reason is that they say it will be paid to foreigners. Their policy is that the cap should be lifted only for two British working parents. That means a very small cost of uplift, apparently. Establish that logic and the rest of the benefits system is also up for debate (which I think is their aim).

There is no evidence Khan is "well liked" by Londoners. It's just the Tories gave up putting anyone credible against him. I have a wide circle of friends and clients in London, of all political persuasions and nationalities, and all of them loathe him.
Not saying anyone likes Cunningham atm, she's too new a face, but I don't know a single Londoner who would disagree with her analysis on crime, especially mobile and bike thefts, shoplifting, illegals related crime, sexual offences.
She'll run in a Rudy Giuliani "broken windows" policy on crime, let's see how popular this is.
Finally Khan will have a somebody up against him as opposed to Tory nobodys.

Yes, Khan infamously refusing to even acknowledge there may be grooming gangs in London.

Politically successful?

https://www.cityam.com/londoners-dont-want-sadiq-khan-to-run-for-mayor-again/

"Some two in five London voters (39 per cent) were dissatisfied with his performance as Mayor while 32 per cent were satisfied. Among those who were unhappy with Khan’s time in office, the vast majority said they were “very dissatisfied”. "

Middling would be a fairer assessment.

Isn't this the whole point? That Farage chose her. The majority of Reform-ers will be fine with her, she totally talks their language.

Now that’s just silly. Khan wins elections. Deal with the facts. Cunningham is a competitive choice which indicates a seriousness to win. But pretending Khan isn’t liked by Londoners overall is ridiculous.

I agree with that.

The Tories have managed to sabotage their own chances in London post-Johnson.

I can’t say I care very much for Cunningham - on the small amount I’ve read about her - but I can certainly see a scenario where unhappy Londoners vote Reform because the party’s got momentum generally and because Khan v Cunningham will be perceived as a two-way fight.

And TBH, it’s a lot harder to fuck up a mayoralty than it is a local council. So if Cunningham gets in she may be quite hard for Labour to dislodge, as Johnson was.

That said, London leans Labour traditionally… another battle of the outer boroughs against Labour’s client fiefdoms in inner London.

What do you mean by "liked". As in, saying to friends family work colleagues etc "I really like what he's doing, he has my full support, I'm going out of my way to vote for him"? The kind of appeal that only certain politicians have for periods of time...Blair for a few years, Boris at the height of his fame 15+ years ago, Thatcher and Farage (Trump now) in that love 'em/loathe 'em way? Obama for a while?
Or do you mean the at best putting up with his virtue signalling while having no real alternative to vote
Even as a Tory voter, I'd have struggled to support Susan Hall.
I don't know anyone in London who's ever said "I like Sadiq Khan".
Then again, I guess I don't speak to the millions of under 30s who live in London who are left wing voters by nature. I guess they could "really like" or even love Khan.
And there's no doubt his perma-spat with Trump, what, 7-8 years now, has been great PR for him.
Whether they will ever "really like" Laila Cunningham, we'll find out...

I speak to dozens of people in London, and crime isn't far from their minds, and everyone is scathing about Khan on this.
And this includes a fair number of migrants and Muslims that I know.
If the left really think he's liked or respected, just because he's got in 3x, then they need to accept the Tories were liked and respected for GE results in 2010, 2015, 2017, 2019...they weren't liked and respected, they were a default choice based on the opposition. Until the gravity of politics crushed them in 2024.
And FWIW, surely mayors should have term limits, 3x should be more than enough.
What's Khan going to campaign on next time? Record low housebuilding, escalating shoplifting etc?

The bookies take on LC v SK

https://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/press-release-laila-cunningham-rockets-into-contention-for-london-mayor/

Thank you. My point is that overall Londoners have liked Khan enough (because it is a personal vote for a Mayor) to elect him consistently. That is political success. Khan is successful.

To overturn that Cunningham has got to be impressive, personable. She can’t just land a few punches on crime or ULEZ and hope to win. If that worked then Goldsmith or Bailey might be mayor.

I’ve lived through every mayoral election London has ever had. It is a very personalised vote. My question is what is it about her that Reform voters like?

I just love her genuine indignant rage at things. Righteous anger. When you hear stories that moped-riding mobile phone-snatching gangs are working to order, blitzing neighbourhoods, stealing phones literally out of the hands of police officers for a laugh, on an industrial scale, shops have the same shoplifter raiding them multiple times daily, and all the police can respond with is "our priorities don't match your request", then it's time to put crime front and centre.
Cunningham has set her stall out, cue Khan telling us it's never been safer to live or work in London.

The credit is not yours to take Rummly. It is all Farage's. 🍓

I knew that would be the answer. Ingrates, the lot of you.

It looks like he’ll have a fight on his hands going by that article. Idk who will do it. She’s only just been announced so things could change.

On the child benefit cap, this is quite interesting.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15445407/Rachel-Reeves-brands-critics-benefits-splurge-RACIST-Labour-boasts-law-scrapping-two-child-cap-reaching-Parliament.html

This point about who receives benefits is an interesting one. But also, Reeves seems to have fallen into a fairly clear trap about “who” is British set by Reform. The Labour Party will have to do a lot better than this kind of response, I’m afraid.

Labour really aren't very good at this, are they?