Mumsnetters voting Reform

[Illjustplayostrich]

Mumsnet mothers have always leaned Labour. Now Reform is ahead

https://www.thetimes.com/article/dbd39087-465c-4587-9eaa-292606ffb775?shareToken=a99daa444e8bc0f9444cca2bf01f3851

I'm slightly startled by this. I'm a centrist, slightly more right leaning perhaps but frankly I'm open to any government who will get a firm grip on the public finances and go about growing the economy in a sustainable way. My impression of this site is that it's definitely more left leaning and and Reform enthusiasts tend to get shouted down. Personally, I think we should be talking about them a lot more as it's highly likely they will form part of the next government.

My impression is that they are promising the earth but don't have people with the necessary skill set to make that happen. I really worry that they will get voted in and find out that they can't fix all the problems within 18 months, leading to yet more disillusionment amongst voters.

Yes my initial view was it was crackers. But of course we have problems (see the riots) and the idea resonates with some of the British public.

Sporadic civil unrest is plausible IMO - you can sense that certain elements in society are approaching some kind of cliff edge.

Sorry can you say more, I’m a bit unaware what are the implications of this?

Weren't these tax changes/tapers introduced by the Cons?

Reeves, as far as i'm aware, hasn't introduced any new TH tapers for higher earners.

The extension of TH's aren't affecting anyone yet.

More blame for Tory policies onto Labour.....

NW, sorry.

So, you have the wholesale price of a barrel of crude (currently say USD 61/bbl), you have the crack spread/refining margin to refine the crude into unleaded etc., then you have fuel duty of 53p/litre, VAT on both the product price, and on the duty itself, delivery cost, retailer costs…

The implications being - lower government revenue - as I am not certain that demand is elastic i.e. the lower the price, the more people drive/consume etc.

Incidentally - lower crude prices around USD 50, are existential for Putin, and challenging for OPEC generally - but that’s another story which makes Starmer look like the small man he really is.

Highly unlikely to see price reductions.

a: any new Venezuelan oil is many years away.
b: Opec will cut production, they simply cannot allow a glut of oil & have a history of making sure it doesn't happen.

The US will see the benefits.

What about the rest of us though. What will we (the majority) be doing whilst the state, the far right and Muslims battle it out?

I know there is one particular person pushing this scenario, but I can't remember his name. Isn't he predicting 23k deaths a year or something like that?

Thank you @Messier61always appreciate the insight

I have zero idea!

The main progenitor is probably looking for government work. However, the actuality is less interesting than the idea some British people think it plausible. This is a curious mindset to have.

J G Ballard wrote a novel about this twenty years ago, called Kingdom Come, where the middle classes degenerate into fascism. Just fiction, albeit unnerving

RR extended the tax thresholds, where they were due to end. As you know. Of course it affects millions of people. But you know that too.

Indeed.

Very happy to debate the energy markets with you.

So, you would get long front month Brent at USD 61/bbl, yes?

Pleasure Eastern!

It would be really refreshing and enlightening if Reform voters can explain to me the positives of Reform - their policies, their values, the effectiveness of their politicians.
We’ve acknowledged that people are unhappy with Labour and/or feel abandoned by them, we know that people rejected the Tories last election, they’re disillusioned and want change and all of that. We’ll take all of that as a given.

My question is: what is it you think Reform will do that will directly improve the lives of people (NHS, education, crime, growth, employment levels, Welfare, etc). and how will they do it.

You might need to start a new thread on that one. Not sure many here are ‘reform voters’.

I keep meaning to read that novel. The person I am thinking of is Betz.

www.theguardian.com/society/2026/jan/04/is-the-uk-really-heading-towards-civil-war

😂😂

Reform right now are establishing that they're here to start, and will do things very differently from Labour and the Tories. They're establishing their ground operation, sorting their vetting of candidates. And in their high profile press conferences, highlighting how they see the issues of the day.
Critically, they're attracting think tank interest, and working with individuals that will lead to inherent change to how governments can effect real significance in power.
Look at Starmer...even now in interviews he projects a "leader" who has no idea on how to grasp power and get things done.
He simply thought being "not the Tories" would mean the state would seamlessly work in his favour. It hasn't, and he hasn't a clue.
Farage will go in with a worked out plan to break the logjam of state inertia.
From this will come the ideas to boost growth, rely less on immigration, break the welfare and mental health benefits Ponzi Scheme, break the illegal migrants business model, Grand Restoration to replace the HRA, GRA, EqA.
It's from these fundamental changes that he'll aim for the country will materially change.

I suspect that the PP is currently smashing google/AI, in order to bone up on the crude market….

😬 not sure you’ll get an answer to that one

Hmm but current evidence, based on Reform evidence from Lancashire, shows..

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/dec/13/reform-uk-lancashire-council-seven-months-in-power

To think that I was originally going to ask them if they would rather get long a call spread collar…

Anyway, moving on.

Weighing in belatedly, and just reading back over the thread.

I'm Reform agnostic, all I know is that I'll vote any way that stops a Starmer and/or Left rainbow coalition outcome.
Two things on local Reform councils.
They need two financial years to show if they're to be trusted.
And Ben Houchen, Tory mayor for Tees, no apologist for Reform he, has confirmed that Reform councils are being impeded every step of the way, from outgoing Tory (and LD, Labour) councillors, and local structures that should be working with them to optimise serving local people.
All we need to see are a handful of Reform councils maintaining reasonable services while keeping council tax rises lower than other councils.
Whether any of this impinges on how voters see Reform nationally, I'm not sure.

The free childcare expansion was introduced by the Conservatives. Don’t you remember, after the most recent GE, there was a lot of worry from parents as to whether Labour would keep it or not?