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Ukraine Invasion: Part 59

1000 replies

MagicFox · 17/10/2025 22:11

Well, it’s thread 59.

Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

OP posts:
Thread gallery
441
blueshoes · 30/10/2025 02:42

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-29-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. A Russian official threatened to supply nuclear missiles to Venezuela and Cuba and called the United States a Russian enemy.
  2. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to tout new Russian nuclear missiles to threaten the United States.
  3. Russia continues to use Belarus to threaten Europe with the Oreshnik missile.
  4. Russian President Vladimir Putin is performatively offering an hours-long micro-ceasefire in Pokrovsk likely in part to claim that Russia is not the impediment to the peace process.
  5. Russian forces continue to advance in the Pokrovsk direction but remain unlikely to immediately collapse the Ukrainian pocket.
  6. Russian forces will likely expend large amounts of manpower and equipment to close the Ukrainian pocket in the Pokrovsk direction, as they have during the past 18 months of fighting for Pokrovsk.
  7. A recent US intelligence assessment reportedly concluded that Russian President Vladimir Putin is more determined than ever to gain a battlefield victory in his war in Ukraine, consistent with ongoing statements by senior Russian officials.
  8. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian State Duma deputies are using imperial Russian and Soviet ideologies to call for Russian society to unite against alleged internal and external threats – likely to set conditions for further repressions and intensified involuntary mobilization for the war against Ukraine or a future war against NATO.
  9. European officials continue to report aerial incursions in European airspace.
  10. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/10/2025 10:53

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trump orders (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-orders-nuclear-tests-after-lambasting-russia-over-cruise-missile/) nuclear tests after lambasting Russia over nuclear-powered missile.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Oct. 30 that he had instructed the Department of War to resume testing nuclear weapons for the first time since 1992.
He argued that the U.S. needed to keep up with other nuclear powers such as Russia and China. The statement follows Trump's criticism of Russia over its testing of a nuclear-powered missile.

⚡️ Trump says Xi agrees to 'work together' (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-says-xi-agrees-to-work-together-with-us-on-ending-russias-war/) with US on ending Russia's war against Ukraine.
"We agree the sides are locked in fighting... but (Xi) is going to help us, and we're going to work together on Ukraine," U.S. President Donald Trump said.

⚡️ Ukraine war latest live (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-10-29/): Putin more committed than ever to continuing war, US intelligence report says.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to continue his full-scale war against Ukraine and achieve further military gains.

⚡️US to cut some troops (https://kyivindependent.com/us-to-withdraw-some-troops-from-natos-eastern-flank-romania-says/) on NATO's eastern flank, Romania says.
"The American decision involves halting the rotation in Europe of a brigade that had units in several NATO countries," the Romanian Defense Ministry said.

⚡️ Polish jets intercept (https://kyivindependent.com/polish-jets-intercept-russian-reconnaissance-plane-over-baltic-sea/) Russian reconnaissance plane over Baltic Sea.
Two Polish MiG-29 fighter jets escorted the aircraft from the area of responsibility, the Polish Armed Forces said, reporting that the Russian plane "did not violate Polish airspace."

⚡️ After scandal erupts, controversial Ukrainian colonel denies sharing 'classified (https://kyivindependent.com/controversial-ukrainian-colonel-criticized-for-opsec-bleach-sharing-front-line-maps-on-tiktok-he-denies/)' front-line maps on TikTok.
The map allegedly showed the front in southeastern Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

⚡️British man arrested (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-british-ex-military-instructor-allegedly-working-for-fsb/) in Kyiv for 'preparing to commit terrorist attacks,' Ukraine says.
Ukraine's Security Service and counterintelligence investigators have detained an alleged Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) agent in Kyiv, who was revealed to be a British citizen, the Prosecutor General's Office reported on Oct. 29.

⚡️Ukraine closes embassy in Cuba (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-closes-embassy-in-cuba-over-russian-military-recruitment/) over Russian military recruitment.

⚡️Ukrainian intelligence 'eliminates (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-intelligence-eliminates-russian-officer-accused-of-war-crimes-in-kyiv-oblast/)' Russian officer accused of war crimes in Kyiv Oblast.

⚡️French court rejects (https://kyivindependent.com/french-court-rejects-extradition-request-for-ukrainian-billionaire/) extradition request for Ukrainian billionaire.
The Paris Court of Appeal on Oct. 29 rejected a request to extradite Ukrainian billionaire Kostiantyn Zhevago to his home country, the news agency Interfax Ukraine reported.
The court ruled that Zhevago would not face a fair trial in Ukraine, and his rights would not be protected.

Vegetables. Monetary policy. Facebook: How one post about a central bank decision fired up Ukraine's top economists (https://kyivindependent.com/vegetables-monetary-policy-facebook-how-one-post-about-a-central-bank-decision-fired-up-ukraines-top-economists/)
Last week, a debate ensued on Facebook over Ukraine's monetary policy, with some of Ukraine's leading minds contributing to the comment section. In this excerpt from our Ukraine Business Roundup newsletter, economics reporter Luca Léry Moffat explains the controversy.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 2h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — OCT 30, 2025
■ Engagements above the 7-day average, casualties slightly below it
■ Losses of unarmored equipment & artillery well above average
■ Overview of overnight attacks has not been released at the time of writing
■ 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes below average, air strikes above it

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/10/2025 11:04

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

NATO countries may allocate about $2 billion this year to purchase weapons for Ukraine under the PURL program and $12–15 billion in 2026, said US Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker.
On September 17, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that under the PURL program, Ukraine had already received weapons worth over $2 billion and hopes to receive $3–3.5 billion by the end of the year. These funds were used to buy, among other things, missiles for Patriot air defense systems and HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems.

The Ukrainian Navy has received the latest Combat Boat 90 vessels from its partners.
These multifunctional boats can operate in areas inaccessible to larger ships — on rivers, narrow straits, and shallow waters.

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea for talks that lasted about 1 hour and 40 minutes.
The US president praised the Chinese leader as “outstanding and respected” and “a great leader of a great country.”
In response, Xi commended Trump for his mediation efforts in establishing peace between Israel and Hamas, as well as between Thailand and Cambodia.
Despite some differences, Xi noted that both leaders should “stick to the right course and ensure the steady forward movement of the giant ship of China-US relations.”

According to new research by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, major chatbots, including ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and DeepSeek, have cited Russian state-linked sources, some of which are sanctioned in the EU, spreading disinformation on topics related to the invasion of Ukraine.

🤯 The photo shows an approximate map of the Russian attack on Ukrainian territory overnight.

🇧🇪 Belgium has launched an investigation into the appearance of several drones over a military base in the south of the country, which the Defense Ministry believes was a targeted reconnaissance operation.
“Our guards in Marche-en-Famenne noticed numerous drones over important parts of the army brigade headquarters on Saturday evening,” Defense Minister Theo Francken said, adding that the drones had been flying there for “a long time.”

President Zelenskyy had a warm conversation with Argentine President Javier Milley following his party’s victory in the parliamentary elections.

US intelligence agencies believe Putin is now “more than ever” determined to continue the war, NBC News reports.
According to the channel, an analysis presented to members of Congress this month shows that US agencies see no indication of Russia’s willingness to compromise on Ukraine, even as President Donald Trump seeks to mediate peace talks.
Citing intelligence reports, NBC writes that Putin has strengthened the position he has held since 2022.

Germany is considering nationalizing the Rosneft subsidiary after new U.S. sanctions, Reuters reports.
While securing a permanent exemption from sanctions remains Berlin’s priority, officials are also weighing the option of seizing the unit and selling it to a foreign investor, sources said.
Rosneft’s German division holds a controlling stake in the Schwedt refinery, which supplies most of Berlin’s fuel, as well as shares in the MiRo and Bayernoil refineries.

Oil prices rose slightly on the morning of October 29 after three days of declines, Reuters reported.
The growth was driven by a drop in US crude oil inventories, while investor concerns about sanctions against Russia and a possible increase in OPEC+ production limited the rise.
Brent crude futures increased by 20 cents, or 0.31%, to $64.60 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate rose by 18 cents, or 0.3%, to $60.33 per barrel.
US crude oil inventories fell by 4.02 million barrels last week, gasoline stocks by 6.35 million barrels, and distillate stocks by 4.36 million barrels.
According to Phillip Nova senior analyst Priyanka Sachdeva, the larger-than-expected draw in inventories triggered a short-term price rally, but the market remains cautious due to sanctions risks and OPEC+ decisions.

In Zaporizhzhia, 11 people were injured as a result of a Russian attack, including six children — three girls and three boys aged 3 to 6.
“Several floors of the dormitory were destroyed. Preliminary information suggests one person may still be under the rubble. The rescue operation continues,” — Regional Military Administration reported.
In Boryspil, a woman was injured during the attack and has been hospitalized.
Ukrenergo reported that due to the massive missile and drone strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, emergency power outages have been introduced across most regions.

💔 Zaporizhzhia: One person has been killed and 17 injured, including a two-year-old girl.
According to the regional military administration, children aged 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, and 16 also required medical attention.
Rescuers pulled one person from the rubble, but sadly, the man did not survive.

❗️A seven-year-old girl injured in the Russian attack on the Vinnytsia region has died in the hospital, First Deputy Head of the Regional Military Administration Zabolotna reported.

❗️ As a result of Russian attacks, 16 missiles and 61 attack drones struck 20 locations, with debris falling in 19 more, the Air Force reported.
In total, Ukrainian forces shot down or suppressed 623 enemy aerial targets — 592 UAVs and 31 missiles.

🇺🇦🫶 Actor Michael Douglas showed his support for Ukraine at the PAC NYC Icons of Culture gala in New York.
He complemented his look with a blue-and-yellow knitted scarf.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/10/2025 11:09

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Street fighting and a “critical situation” are unfolding in the frontline city of Pokrovsk. (www.kyivpost.com/post/63226)
Advancing Russian infantry has entered the city limits, which remains one of Putin’s key objectives in the region.

Trump confirmed that Ukraine was one of the main topics during his meeting with Xi Jinping, (www.kyivpost.com/post/63265) calling the conversation “lengthy.” He stressed that the U.S. is ready to work with China to “get the war finished.”

Putin’s envoy claims peace with Ukraine possible within a year as Russia and US ‘close to resolution’,
Kirill Dmitriev says Moscow expects agreement soon, though no formal talks have been confirmed by Washington or Kyiv.

Russia escalates chemical attacks in Ukraine – from pipeline sabotage to drone-dispersed toxins. Over 9,000 incidents documented, yet global response remains weak.

Romania confirms that the US will downsize its troop presence (www.kyivpost.com/post/63208) in the country.

Cutting US troop presence in Romania would be a terrible mistake, (www.kyivpost.com/post/63250) warns former Ambassador Mark Gitenstein.
In an interview with Kyiv Post, he says Moscow would see it as a sign of weakness.

US Vice President Vance considers his clash with Zelensky in the White House the most high-profile act he has ever done — or may ever do.
He believes that after that confrontation, US-Ukraine relations became significantly more productive, marking the start of a new phase.

blueshoes · 30/10/2025 11:10

Great to see volunteers out in full force in London today for London Poppy Day, many in uniform and some even with their military medals ❤💙💛

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/10/2025 11:13

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Putin announced that Russia has tested its Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle.
According to him, on October 28, Russia for the first time managed to launch not only the Poseidon from a submarine, but also activate the nuclear power unit that propels the drone.

🇸🇪🇳🇴🇺🇦 The Ukrainian Navy has received new Combat Boat 90 vessels from Sweden and Norway.
These boats are already in service with Ukraine’s Navy, but the latest delivery has allowed for the formation of a full division of CB90s.
According to Navy Commander Oleksii Neizhpapa, these boats are among the best in the world. They are designed to perform a wide range of missions — from amphibious landings and coastal defense to patrol operations and protection of civilian shipping.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has detained a former British military instructor on suspicion of working for Russia’s FSB.
According to investigators, the suspect had been in Ukraine since January 2024. For several months, he trained Ukrainian servicemen in Mykolaiv and worked with a border detachment before later moving to Odesa.
In Odesa, he established contact with a representative of the Russian intelligence service and agreed to pass on military information.
In May 2025, the British national allegedly provided data on the locations of Ukrainian units, photos of a training facility, and information about servicemen. An analysis of his correspondence confirmed that he had carried out other tasks for Russian intelligence — for one of which he received $6,000.

🇺🇦🇨🇺 Ukraine has voted for the first time against Cuba’s annual UN resolution calling for an end to the U.S. embargo.
Presidential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak explained that Ukraine’s decision came because Cuba has become a strategic asset for Russia, actively supporting its war against Ukraine.
According to Yermak, thousands of Cuban soldiers are fighting against Ukraine as part of Russian occupation forces, and Havana is increasingly involved in military and intelligence activities that threaten international security.
He added that Russia uses Cuba to circumvent sanctions imposed to force it to end its invasion.

🇪🇺🇺🇦 The EU is allocating around €50 million to rebuild Ukrainian hospitals.
The funding will cover medical facilities damaged by Russia’s aggression or those operating under increased strain due to the war.
The funds will be used to support preparatory and construction work, as well as the purchase of new medical equipment.
Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha announced that Ukraine is closing its embassy in Cuba.

🇵🇱 Poland intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea.
The military plane was conducting an intelligence mission without a filed flight plan or active transponders, making it impossible to identify.
While the aircraft did not violate Polish airspace, Polish forces escorted it after it entered the country’s area of responsibility.

💥 Russia launched a series of strikes on thermal power plants across several regions of Ukraine, causing severe damage to equipment.
This marks the third large-scale attack on DTEK’s thermal power plants in October alone.
▪️ Since the start of the full-scale invasion, DTEK’s thermal power plants have been targeted more than 210 times.

5.6 million Ukrainians are refugees. Most of them — 1.2 million — are in Germany.
This number does not include those who were forced to flee to Russia, as Russia has long stopped providing such data. Moreover, many Ukrainians who ended up in Russia were forcibly deported there by the occupying forces.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
MissConductUS · 30/10/2025 13:03

Cutting US troop presence in Romania would be a terrible mistake, (www.kyivpost.com/post/63250) warns former Ambassador Mark Gitenstein.

To put this in context, about 700 troops are rotating back to the US, leaving roughly 85,000 American soldiers stationed in Europe and 1k in Romania. The US Army has more soldiers in Europe than the entire British Army has worldwide. There has been broad agreement within NATO that Europe can and will do more to provide for its own conventional defense.

‘Terrible Mistake’ – Former US Envoy Slams Troop Cut in Romania, Warns of Russian Exploitation

In an interview with Kyiv Post, Mark Gitenstein, former US Ambassador to Romania, warns withdrawal will be seen as “sign of weakness” in Moscow, chilling allies across central and eastern Europe.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/63250)

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/10/2025 16:29

There must be more to it than that though. 700 soldiers don't seem that much, but if the Kyiv Independent reporting is accurate there seems to firstly be the whole Division (On Wednesday, the US Army confirmed that the 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team of the 101st Airborne Division – a rotational force of roughly 3,000 to 4,000 troops deployed in 2022 – will return to Kentucky and will not be replaced.)

Or is that misreporting?

Significantly though some very senior republicans seem to see this as a bad step:

The withdrawal has drawn a rare joint rebuke from top Republican defense lawmakers.
Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS.), chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, and Representative Mike Rogers (R-AL), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, issued a statement saying they “strongly oppose the decision not to maintain the rotational US brigade in Romania.”
The pair warned that the move – coming only weeks after reported Russian drone violations of Romanian airspace – “undermines deterrence and risks inviting further Russian aggression.”
Gitenstein said he “completely agree[d] with the Rogers and Wicker statement,” adding: “I was particularly taken with their assessment of how the Russians will interpret this.”
On the failure to consult Congress, he recalled his time in the Senate: “I spent 17 years working in the Senate … it is a big mistake to cut Congress out of this process. … If you want us in on the landing, you better include us in on the take-off.”

Chairmen of Senate and House Armed Services Committees: We Strongly Oppose the Pentagon’s Decision to Scale Back the U.S. Troop Presence in Romania

https://www.wicker.senate.gov/2025/10/chairmen-of-senate-and-house-armed-services-committees-we-strongly-oppose-the-pentagon-s-decision-to-scale-back-the-u-s-troop-presence-in-romania

MissConductUS · 30/10/2025 17:19

The NY Times reported the number of troops rotating back as 700. The Independent is reporting it as 1,000 - 1,200. I don't think that the entire BCT (Brigade Combat Team) is coming home.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/nato-troops-trump-europe-military-b2854615.html

It's also not an operationally significant number of troops, given the entire force posture in Eastern Europe.

Romania is one of the Eastern European countries that is expanding its army. From the article in the Independent:

Defence Minister Ionut Mosteanu told a news conference that the brigade had troops in Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia.

He said Bucharest's ties with Washington remained strong and that the permanent allied presence remained "considerable", at around 3,500 NATO troops including U.S. soldiers.

"It is enough for our needs," Mosteanu said. "The expectation of having entire foreign armies here to defend us is unrealistic. We will continue to invest in the Romanian army."

He said Romania had received an advanced air defence system from Washington which would enhance the country's ability to protect itself against drones breaching its airspace.

The US has also said that it may increase the number of American troops in Poland. This is a normal operational repositioning as the threat changes.

I agree that some politicians and diplomats have their knickers in a twist about it. They would not if they had ever served in the army.

US withdraws some troops from Europe after Trump’s warning to Nato

Trump said in September that Washington could increase its troop presence in Poland

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/nato-troops-trump-europe-military-b2854615.html

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 30/10/2025 17:41

Thanks for the expansion, MissConduct.

PerkingFaintly · 30/10/2025 19:35

Informative piece about how China is growing its intelligence operations against the UK.

It includes techniques we're very familiar with from Russia, eg "cultivating local politicians in the early stages of their career with the hope of seeding them into more senior positions".

China also has a huge appetite for Big Data, which it's collecting at scale. Many (though I would guess not all) of these massive data sets can be obtained legally, of course, thanks to the ubiquity of surveillance capitalism.

How China really spies on the UK
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgr4xpyrkdqo

A treated image of Parliament and the Chinese flag

How China really spies on the UK in 2025

The national security threats China poses today go beyond traditional notions of espionage - in this new world, threats are far more complex

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cgr4xpyrkdqo

blueshoes · 31/10/2025 02:12

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-30-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. US President Donald Trump called for the United States to resume tests of its nuclear weapons, likely in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ostentatious announcements of recent tests of Russian nuclear weapons.
  2. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced a unilateral micro-ceasefire near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk but provided no clarity on the timing of the micro-ceasefire.
  3. Ukrainian military sources continued to provide details about the difficult situation in the Pokrovsk pocket.
  4. The Kremlin is activating plans to use active reservists to protect infrastructure in the Russian rear.
  5. Russian forces conducted a large-scale series of missile and drone strikes including over 700 projectiles against Ukraine on the night of October 29 to 30.
  6. Polish fighters intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea for the second time in three days.
  7. Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces advanced near Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.
DuncinToffee · 31/10/2025 11:22

Mark Chadbourn

Secret (now not so) summit of the Coalition of the Willing in Spain on Nov 4 to discuss the next steps against Russia, El Mundo reports.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/10/2025 11:23

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia renews military flights (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-renews-military-flights-to-syria-as-it-rebuilds-relations-with-damascus/) to Syria as it rebuilds relations with Damascus.
Russia has resumed military flights to Syria as it tries to maintain its presence in the country. Recent flight data showed Russian planes arriving at the Khmeimim air base, Bloomberg reported.

⚡️ Spain to reportedly (https://kyivindependent.com/spain-to-reportedly-host-secret-summit-of-coalition-of-the-willing-on-nov-4/) host 'secret' summit of 'Coalition of the Willing' on Nov. 4.
The secretive meeting will focus on increasing aid to Ukraine and coordinating security guarantees to ward off future Russian aggression, El Mundo reported. [for a certain value of 'secret']

⚡️New missile that pushed Trump (https://kyivindependent.com/new-missile-that-pushed-trump-to-leave-nuclear-treaty-fired-by-russia-at-ukraine-reuters-reports/) to leave nuclear treaty fired by Russia at Ukraine, Reuters reports.
Russia's 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile, sometimes referred to as the Iskander K to distinguish it from Iskander M ballistic missiles, was recorded flying as far as 1,200 kilometers, according to unnamed Ukrainian officials cited by Reuters.

⚡️After US sanctions, Lukoil to sell assets to firm founded (https://kyivindependent.com/after-us-sanctions-lukoil-to-sell-assets-to-firm-founded-by-putin-ally/) by Putin ally.
Russian oil company Lukoil said on Oct. 30 that it had reached a deal to sell its foreign assets to Gunvor, a company founded by an ally of President Vladimir Putin. Lukoil attributed the sale to the U.S. sanctions introduced against Lukoil on Oct. 22.
Gunvor was founded in 1997 by Gennady Timchenko, a close associate of Putin, and Swedish billionaire Torbjörn Törnqvist.

⚡️Update: Ukraine strikes energy infrastructure (https://kyivindependent.com/drone-strike-damages-thermal-power-plant-in-russias-oryol-oblast-governor-says/) in multiple Russian regions, officials, media report.
Attacks were reported on a power plant in Russia's Oryol Oblast, a major electrical substation in Vladimir Oblast, and an oil refinery in Yaroslavl Oblast.

⚡️'Zeroing out' — Russian troops carry out torture, executions (https://kyivindependent.com/zeroing-out-russian-troops-carry-out-torture-executions-in-own-ranks-media-investigation-finds/) in own ranks, media investigation finds.
"You know, what's happening there is that... You never know where the bullet will come from: from your own side or from the Ukrainians," Dmitry, a Russian soldier, told the independent outlet Verstka.

⚡️ Thermal power plant on fire (https://kyivindependent.com/fire-breaks-out-at-thermal-power-plant-in-russian-occupied-shchastia-causing-large-scale-power-outage-for-luhansk-oblast/) in Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast, widespread power outage reported.
The accident at the power plant in the city of Shchastia reportedly led to the shutdown of boiler rooms and pumping stations.

⚡️Drone strike damages Russian power plant (https://kyivindependent.com/drone-strike-damages-thermal-power-plant-in-russias-oryol-oblast-governor-says/) in Oryol Oblast, governor says.
Drones hit the Oryol Thermal Power Plant (TPP), "causing damage to power supply equipment," Governor Andrey Klychkov claimed.

⚡️Explosion at Kyiv postal office injures (https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-at-kyiv-postal-office-injures-five-people/) five people.
A parcel exploded at a postal office in Kyiv's Solomyanskyi District on Oct. 30, injuring five employees, Kyiv police reported.
The Ukrainian media outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported, citing a law enforcement source, that the explosion took place at an office of Ukrposhta, the state-owned postal service. The source attributed the explosion to someone trying to send a part of a grenade launcher by mail.

⚡️Shooting at draft office (https://kyivindependent.com/shooting-at-draft-office-in-poltava-oblast-leaves-2-soldiers-injured/) in Poltava Oblast leaves 2 soldiers injured.

⚡️ Disabled Ukrainian man found dead in Germany (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-man-with-disabilities-murdered-and-robbed-in-germany/), death ruled as suicide.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 4h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — OCT 31, 2025
■ Fewer engagements, but casualties slightly above the 7-day average
■ Record-high equipment losses due to record-high drone losses (previous drone record reported on Oct 23)
■ Overview of overnight attacks has not been released at the time of writing
■ 🇷🇺 MLRS and air strikes above average, 7 🇺🇦 strikes reported

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/10/2025 11:34

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russian claims of an alleged “blocking” of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Kupiansk do not reflect reality, Syrskyi said.
In Pokrovsk, enemy infantry is massing in urban areas, avoiding direct clashes and frequently changing positions. The primary task is to detect and destroy these groups, the commander-in-chief emphasized.
He reported that measures are underway to strengthen defence stability in the Pokrovsk direction.
Syrskyi said every commander, at every level, must ensure high-quality execution of tasks. He warned against irresponsibility and vowed to take strict measures, up to removal from office. [hints of serious problems]

Intelligence has provided the first detailed assessments of the impact of new Western sanctions on the Russian military machine, — President Zelenskyy.
“We are recording significant losses for the Russian Federation from the sanctions already applied to oil companies and predict that, if principled and consistent pressure on Moscow continues, their annual losses from the recently imposed restrictions alone will reach at least $50 billion,” the president noted.
He also announced further sanctions steps from partners, saying that corresponding signals have already been received.
“The volumes of oil supplies from Arab states to the global market can certainly prevent any destabilization or price spikes that the Russians fear,” Zelenskyy added.

🤬⚛️The IAEA reported that Russian forces attacked key substations supporting the operation of Ukrainian-controlled nuclear power plants.
As a result, the power output of at least one plant was reduced.
The Pivdennoukrainsk and Khmelnytskyi NPPs lost access to one of their external power transmission lines, while the IAEA team at the Rivne NPP said the plant had to reduce the output of two of its four power units.

✈️ Russia has resumed flights to its Khmeimim air base in Syria after a six-month pause, Bloomberg reports.
At least two Russian military aircraft — an Il-62M and an An-124-100 — have flown to Latakia, where the Khmeimim base is located. According to Flightradar24, the An-124 made three flights between October 24 and 29.
A Bloomberg source confirmed the resumption of air traffic with Syria. Moscow uses its bases in Latakia and Tartus to project power in the Middle East and Africa.
Russia also plans to deliver 100,000 tons of Arctic oil and condensate to the Syrian port of Baniyas. Meanwhile, Syrian diplomats are in Moscow preparing to resume the work of the embassy and consular services.

Russian oil exports have dropped to their lowest level since 2022, Bloomberg reports, as refinery shutdowns and tightening sanctions have caused a sharp decline in the country’s energy trade.

🇩🇪 German Development Minister Rima Alabali-Radovan arrived in Kyiv to encourage German companies to invest in Ukraine and support its recovery.

🇩🇪⚖️ A Russian citizen and two accomplices have been convicted in Germany for spying for the Russian Federation.
According to Reuters, German citizen of Russian origin Dieter S. was sentenced to six years in prison for espionage, planning sabotage, and participating in a terrorist organization.
Two of his accomplices received suspended sentences of 12 and 6 months. The defendants pleaded not guilty, calling their actions a “joke.”
Prosecutors said Dieter S. had been spying on Germany’s military infrastructure since late 2023 and acted with the help of his accomplices before being arrested.
The court determined that their goal was to sow fear and influence political decisions supporting Ukraine. It was also confirmed that Dieter S. fought on the side of pro-Russian militants in Donbas in 2014–2016.

Another Russian oil refinery has halted operations. The Ilsky Oil Refinery (KNGK-Holding) announced a temporary shutdown of some production capacity.
The refinery cited “scheduled equipment repairs and maintenance,” while industry sources point to difficulties with product sales and reduced refining volumes. Sanctions, the challenging economic situation, and delays in equipment modernization have affected operations, and restoring full production could take several months. No official timeline for resumption has been provided. The suspension may impact regional fuel markets and supply logistics.

Hungary has blocked the EU’s joint statement condemning repeated flights of Belarusian balloons over Lithuanian territory, Euractiv reports.
Lithuania has called the balloon launches a form of “hybrid warfare” and was forced to suspend air traffic and later close its border. [.....]
The balloons are mainly used to smuggle cheap Belarusian cigarettes, later sold in the EU at higher prices. The Belarusian opposition claims profits from this black market fund Lukashenko’s regime.
Lithuania has recorded over 540 airspace violations this year and has authorized its army to shoot down balloons.

Slovakia will not give a single cent to finance military support for Ukraine — Prime Minister Robert Fico.
“I will not sign any guarantee for financing Ukraine regarding military spending in 2026 and 2027.
It is absurd that Europe buys weapons from the US with European money and then transfers them to Ukraine.
If someone wants to buy ammunition or weapons from us — please buy, but we will not give anything to anyone. If we were more united within the EU, we would jointly promote products useful for the entire Union and could save a lot of money,” — Fico told Dennik N.

🪖 Ukraine has identified 654 fighters from the Wagner and Redut PMCs who fought for Russia against the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
More than 70 searches are underway in Ukraine and Moldova. Police have uncovered recruitment sites, training bases, commanders, and evidence of participation in combat operations.
Law enforcement officers have also gathered proof of war crimes — executions of civilians and prisoners, and the use of prohibited weapons.
Charges have been filed against 11 Ukrainian citizens who fought for Russia within these PMCs.
Ukrainian police shared data on over 280 foreign mercenaries with law enforcement agencies in other countries via Europol and Interpol. The information was sent to Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
For the first time, sufficient evidence has been gathered to prosecute a foreigner for mercenary activity — a Moldovan citizen who fought in Bakhmut with Wagner and received a medal from the Russian Federation.

The EU is ready to expand sanctions against Belarus for violating Lithuanian airspace, said EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas. [...]
She noted that these provocations contradict Lukashenko’s statements about wanting to improve relations with the EU.
According to Kallas, the Belarusian balloons disrupted air traffic, caused financial losses for travelers and airports, and posed a threat to civil aviation.
The diplomat expressed full solidarity with Lithuania and other EU countries targeted by Belarusian hybrid attacks.

Minister of Communities and Territories Development Oleksiy Kuleba shared footage of the aftermath of a Russian attack on railway infrastructure.
According to him, a Ukrzaliznytsia depot in Sumy, where passenger cars are serviced and inspected, was damaged. A Sumy–Kyiv train was destroyed, though no company employees were injured.
A drone also hit a high-rise building in Sumy, setting five apartments on fire and injuring 12 people. Train services in Lozova are experiencing delays.

Eleven people, including four children, were injured in a Russian attack on Sumy on Thursday evening, the Sumy Regional State Emergency Service reported.
A drone strike on a nine-story building caused fires in five apartments and seven balconies on the upper floors.

🥺 An elderly couple walked 16 km from Torske to Lyman in the Donetsk region.
Their house burned down during shelling, and they spent three days hiding in the cellar without food. When the shelling stopped, they barely escaped the basement — everything was gone. The couple decided to reach their son-in-law in Lyman. They left at 9 a.m. and arrived around 2 p.m., stopping along the way as the woman suffered a heart attack. They walked the entire distance holding onto their bicycles, and the woman was barefoot because her boots had rubbed her feet.
Police officers from the White Angel unit found them on the road and evacuated them to safety, where Red Cross representatives were waiting.
Fierce fighting continues in Torske. Residents remain in basements, while evacuation requests are growing due to intensified attacks and the threat of drone strikes.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/10/2025 11:44

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Europe urged to help close $100 billion funding gap for Ukraine, (www.kyivpost.com/post/63334) US panel warns.

Ukraine’s 2025–2028 budget gap may hit $53B, nearly double July’s estimate, (www.kyivpost.com/post/63290) Kyiv School of Economics warns.
The think tank urges swift IMF and EU aid as rising defense costs threaten Ukraine’s financial stability.

Spain to host secret meeting of “coalition of the willing” on Ukraine — El Mundo
Delegates from 35 countries will attend under tight secrecy. Phones will be collected at the entrance and stored separately, with participants warned not to disclose any details of the meeting.

Russia’s defence ministry has announced it is prepared to suspend hostilities for 5–6 hours to provide humanitarian corridors for foreign journalists in areas it claims are encircled by its forces — including Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Kupiansk.
However, Ukrainian military officials have dismissed the claim, with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi stating that no such encirclements exist.

101 Russian soldiers accused of killing their own comrades (www.kyivpost.com/post/63304) in Ukraine — a brutal practice known as “nullification,” now rampant across frontline units, as documented by independent outlet Verstka.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/10/2025 11:46

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇸 Trump and Putin will not meet in Budapest because Moscow’s position was “too hardline,” the Financial Times reported, citing diplomatic sources.
According to one of the newspaper’s interlocutors, the decision followed a “tense” high-level phone call between the two sides.
▪️U.S. President Donald Trump announced on September 16 that he would meet with the Kremlin leader in Hungary.
▪️Later, Reuters and an NBC News journalist, citing a senior White House official, reported that the U.S. and Russian leaders have no plans to meet in the near future.

🇭🇺🇺🇦 Orbán hinted that Ukrainians may have been involved in the fire at Hungary’s oil refinery.
“The Polish foreign minister advised the Ukrainians to blow up the Barátság pipeline. Let’s hope that’s not the case. Gasoline prices have already risen sharply,” said Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
He was referring to comments made by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, who wrote on X (Twitter) wishing Ukraine’s drone forces commander Robert Brovdi success in striking the Druzhba pipeline — suggesting Hungary should receive oil via Croatia instead.
▪️ On the night of October 21, a major fire broke out at the MOL oil refinery after an explosion in the crude distillation unit. The facility is one of Hungary’s five most critical energy sites and a key hub for processing Russian oil.

💥 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries have reduced the country’s fuel processing volumes by 18–20%, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR).
HUR representative Andriy Yusov described the losses as “extraordinarily high figures,” adding that the number of successfully hit targets inside Russia is a “key indicator.”
He noted that Russia is trying to protect its facilities by combining outdated Soviet-era air defense systems with newer technology.
Despite deploying air defenses around all major cities, Ukraine continues to deliver near-daily strikes on strategically important sites within Russia’s defense-industrial complex.

🇳🇱 The Netherlands is allocating €10 million to support Ukraine’s cybersecurity.
The funds will go toward a UK-led program aimed at protecting Ukraine from cyberattacks.

🇭🇺🇺🇸 Orban said that during his meeting with Trump, he plans to explain why Hungary depends on Russian energy supplies.
According to Orban, since Hungary has no access to the sea, it relies on overland routes for the delivery of energy resources.
He believes it’s important to make this clear to the Americans if Hungary hopes to obtain an exemption from U.S. sanctions against Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil.
Orban previously stated that without Russian energy supplies, energy prices would “skyrocket,” and that Hungary is “trying to find a way out.”

[yesterday]
Rescuers have recovered the body of a second victim from the rubble of a dormitory in Zaporizhzhia.
The number of injured remains unchanged — 17 people, including six children.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 31/10/2025 17:52

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/31/politics/pentagon-tomahawks-trump-ukraine

The Pentagon has given the White House the green light to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles after assessing that it would not negatively impact US stockpiles, leaving the final political decision in President Donald Trump’s hands, according to three US and European officials familiar with the matter.
Trump said earlier this month during a working lunch with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House that he would rather not provide the missiles to Ukraine because “we don’t want to be giving away things that we need to protect our country.”

The Joint Staff informed the White House of its assessment earlier this month, just before Trump met with Zelensky* *who has been pushing for the missiles to more effectively target oil and energy facilities deep inside Russia. Tomahawks have a range of around 1,000 miles.

The assessment buoyed the US’ European allies, who believe that the US now has fewer excuses not to provide the missiles, two European officials said. Trump also said just days before meeting Zelensky that the US has “a lot of Tomahawks” that it could potentially give to Ukraine.

US and European officials were surprised, therefore, when Trump dramatically changed his tune days later, saying during opening remarks at a White House working lunch with Zelensky that the US “needs” the Tomahawks.* *He then told Zelensky behind closed doors that the US would not be providing them — at least not yet.

Trump’s decision came one day after he spoke by phone to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who told Trump that Tomahawks could hit major Russian cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg – would have no significant impact on the battlefield but would damage the US-Russia relationship, CNN has reported.

The White House and Pentagon did not return requests for comment.

Trump has not taken the missiles off the table altogether, sources previously told CNN, and the administration has drawn up plans to provide them to Ukraine quickly should Trump give the order. Trump has also grown so frustrated in recent weeks with Putin’s unwillingness to seriously consider peace talks that he approved new US sanctions on Russian oil firms last week and scrapped — for now — a planned meeting with Putin in Budapest to discuss Ukraine.

While the Pentagon doesn’t have concerns about stockpiles, US defense officials are still grappling with how Ukraine would train on and deploy the missiles, officials said. There are still several operational issues that would need to be resolved for Ukraine to be able to use the missiles effectively, the sources added.

One outstanding question is how Ukraine would fire the missiles if the US provided them. Tomahawks are most commonly launched from surface ships or submarines, but Ukraine’s Navy is severely depleted, so the missiles would likely need to be launched on land. The Marine Corps and Army have developed ground-based launchers that could be provided to Ukraine.

But even if the US did not want to provide the launchers, European officials believe Ukraine could figure out a workaround. One official pointed out that Ukrainian engineers were able to develop a workaround to use the UK-provided Storm Shadow missiles, which were originally designed to be used by modern NATO aircraft and had to be integrated into Ukraine’s aging, Soviet-era fighter jet fleet.
In a post on X earlier this week, Zelenksy said Ukraine hopes to expand its long-range capabilities by the end of this year so the war can end “on fair terms” for the country.

“Global sanctions and our pinpoint precision are practically syncing up to end this war on terms fair for Ukraine,” he wrote. “All deep-strike goals must be fully locked in by year’s end, including expansion of our long-range footprint.”

Pentagon cleared giving Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles, leaving final decision to Trump | CNN Politics

The Pentagon has given the White House the green light to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles after assessing that it would not negatively impact US stockpiles, leaving the final political decision in President Donald Trump’s hands, accor...

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/10/31/politics/pentagon-tomahawks-trump-ukraine

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/11/2025 09:59

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ukraine war latest live: 170,000 Russian troops (https://kyivindependent.com/https-kyivindependent-com-ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-10-31/) deployed in Pokrovsk sector, Zelensky says.
"All their forces are there," Zelensky told journalists in a briefing.

⚡️Trump says Orban requested exemption (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-says-orban-requested-exemption-from-us-sanctions-on-russian-oil-but-hasnt-been-granted-one/) from US sanctions on Russian oil but hasn’t been granted one.
While most EU member states have largely phased out Russian fossil-fuel imports since 2022, Hungary and Slovakia have continued to receive pipeline deliveries.

⚡️ Ukraine destroyed 'Oreshnik' missile (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-destroys-russias-new-oreshnik-missile-inside-russia-zelensky-says/) inside Russian territory, Zelensky says.
SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk later specified that the missile was destroyed at the Kapustin Yar missile range in Russia’s Astrakhan Oblast.

⚡️ Pentagon greenlit Tomahawks (https://kyivindependent.com/https-kyivindependent-com-ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-10-31/) for Ukraine, Trump made final decision, CNN reports.
According to CNN, the missiles are still on the table and the White House has plans in place to send them quickly should Trump give the order.

⚡️ 'A rumble in Moscow Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-critical-military-pipeline-near-moscow-hur-says/)' — Ukraine hits critical military pipeline near Russian capital, HUR says.
"Our strikes have had more impact than the sanctions," HUR chief Kyrylo Budanov was quoted as saying.

⚡️ Venezuela reportedly requests (https://kyivindependent.com/venezuela-reportedly-requests-missiles-radars-from-russia/) missiles, radars from Russia amid US tensions.
Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro has a close relationship with Moscow, bolstered by their shared animosity toward the West.

⚡️ India's largest oil refiner reportedly buys (https://kyivindependent.com/indias-largest-oil-refiner-reportedly-buys-russian-crude-from-non-sanctioned-firms/) Russian crude from non-sanctioned entities.
The purchases demonstrate how Indian refiners are adapting to new U.S. sanctions while maintaining access to Russian crude, seeking alternative suppliers to avoid penalties.

⚡️Berlin airport temporarily halts (https://kyivindependent.com/berlin-airport-temporarily-halts-flights-over-suspicious-drone-sighting/) flights over suspicious drone sighting.
Planes from at least four different European cities were diverted to nearby airports, including Hamburg airport, amid the temporary halt.

⚡️ Neptune missiles (https://kyivindependent.com/drone-strike-damages-thermal-power-plant-in-russias-oryol-oblast-governor-says/) struck Russian energy infrastructure, oil refineries, Ukraine confirms.
"The Ukrainian military continues to demonstrate that no enemy rear is safe," Ukraine's Navy on Telegram.

⚡️ French intelligence links Holocaust memorial vandalism to alleged Russian hybrid campaign (https://kyivindependent.com/france-links-holocaust-memorial-vandalism-to-alleged-russian-hybrid-campaign/).
Three Bulgarians charged in the act have been brought to trial, while the fourth one continues to evade custody.

⚡️ Ukraine hands over Russian POW (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hands-over-russian-pow-to-lithuania-for-war-crimes-prosecution/) to Lithuania for war crimes prosecution in 'historic precedent.'
This marks the first time since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion that Ukraine has handed over a Russian prisoner of war to a foreign country for criminal prosecution.

⚡️Ukraine's Anti-Corruption Court sentences (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-anti-corruption-court-sentences-former-tax-chief-to-6-years-in-prison/) former tax chief to 6 years in prison.
Ukraine's High Anti-Corruption Court (HACC) sentenced Roman Nasirov, the former head of the country's State Fiscal Service, to six years in prison over charges stemming from his involvement in a gas extraction scandal linked to a former parliamentarian, the Anti-Corruption Action Center announced on Oct. 31.

Silence from Ukraine's allies after 'politically motivated' arrest (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-allies-silent-as-prosecution-against-former-top-energy-official-escalates/) of former top energy official
The arrest and detention of a former top energy official in Ukraine this week is an alarming new episode of democratic backsliding, Ukraine's civil society and lawmakers say — the latest in a series of politically motivated attacks on individuals and institutions.

Zelensky takes full control of Odesa, sending message to local governments (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-takes-full-control-of-odesa-sending-message-to-local-governments/)
When Odesa Mayor Hennadiy Trukhanov was stripped of his Ukrainian citizenship, a move that immediately ended his political career, some local residents erupted in celebration.
The questionable practice of stripping Ukrainian citizens of their citizenship was applauded by those who spent years battling the tainted mayor.
Seen by his opponents as pro-Russian and corrupt, Trukhanov, who led Odesa since 2014, was charged with negligence soon after his passport was revoked. He was bound to house arrest on Oct. 31.

It’s all in the cards — Ukrainians consult tarot readers about wartime fears (https://kyivindependent.com/its-all-in-the-cards-ukrainians-consult-tarot-readers-about-wartime-fears/)
In wartime Ukraine, one’s future can vanish in a heartbeat. That’s why some Ukrainians are turning to tarot — a deck of cards that symbolizes life’s themes, spiritual lessons, and everyday experiences, used for both divination and self-reflection — to try and gain some semblance of control amid chaos.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 30m
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — NOV 1, 2025
■ Engagements, casualties and equipment losses below the 7-day average
■ Overnight attacks: well over 200 drones, but good interception rate
■ Visually confirmed batch: 54 🇷🇺 : 18 🇺🇦 (53:18 after cleanup) - 1.3x in the last 30 days
■ Single-digit 🇺🇦 strikes, but 🇷🇺 strikes down from previous day

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/11/2025 10:03

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🔥 One of the three Oreshnik complexes was destroyed by the HUR, SBU, and the National Security Service in Kapustin Yar, said Malyuk.
“The destruction was 100%. It was a very successful operation. The report was made exclusively to President Zelenskyy, and several other heads of state were also informed,” the head of the Security Service stated.

🇱🇹 Lithuania halts transit of Russian oil to the Kaliningrad region.
Lithuanian Railways announced the suspension of transportation of Russian oil products to Kaliningrad to avoid secondary sanctions from the US and the UK against Lukoil and Rosneft.
The ban will take effect after the transition period ends — by November 21.
Since the beginning of 2025, LTG has transported 194,000 tons of Lukoil products, and in 2024 — 371,000 tons.
Transit of oil products through the EU has been banned since December 2022, but Lithuania had an exception for essential goods transported by rail.

❗️The Foreign Intelligence Service has found the addresses of Ukrainian children abducted by Russia and will pass the lists on to partners — President Zelenskyy.
“This is a sensitive issue — a lot of quiet diplomatic work is ongoing. And to thwart any attempts by Russia to claim they ‘know nothing’ about our children, we are working to provide addresses as well,” he emphasized.
According to the president, the first list with over 300 names and addresses of abducted children will be on the table of all leaders who help Ukraine.

Indian Oil Corp, India’s largest oil refiner, has purchased five batches of Russian crude for delivery in December from companies not under Western sanctions, Reuters reported, citing traders.
Following U.S. sanctions against Russia’s top oil producers Lukoil and Rosneft, several Indian refineries — including Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals, HPCL-Mittal Energy, and Reliance Industries — suspended imports of Russian crude.
Indian Oil Corp’s chief financial officer, Anuj Jain, said the company would continue purchases as long as the supplies did not violate sanctions.
According to one trader, the refinery bought about 3.5 million barrels of ESPO-grade crude for delivery to a port in eastern India in December. Reuters sources did not disclose the sellers in these transactions.

🔋 G7 countries will help Ukraine restore its energy grid after Russian attacks.
In a statement, G7 energy ministers called Ukraine’s recovery a “massive but critical task” that requires cooperation between the public and private sectors. They believe Ukraine can become a model of energy security and innovation in the region.
The countries will continue to support the protection of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, work with the IAEA to ensure nuclear safety, and help build a decentralized and resilient energy system.

🇨🇦 The Canadian government has filed a lawsuit to return to Ukraine the confiscated Russian An-124 aircraft, which has been under arrest at Toronto Airport since February 2022.
“The Antonov aircraft is a powerful symbol of responsibility. Those who support Russian aggression will be held accountable, and Ukraine will not be alone in the reconstruction process,” said Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand.
She also recalled that Russia destroyed several Ukrainian Antonov aircraft at the start of the war, and transferring the confiscated Russian aircraft will help replenish Ukraine’s transport fleet.

How US Engines Ended Up Powering Russia’s Jet-Powered Shahed Drones (united24media.com/latest-news/how-us-engines-ended-up-powering-russias-jet-powered-shahed-drones-12995)
A Russian company tied to sanctioned oligarch Oleg Deripaska secretly bought American-made jet engines to study and replicate them for Moscow’s next generation of Shahed-style attack drones—revealing a clear link between US technology and Russia’s evolving drone warfare program.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the SBU has successfully struck more than 160 Russian oil production facilities, said SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk.
According to him, the SBU targets legitimate military objectives that provide 90% of the Russian Defense Ministry’s budget — the so-called “dirty petro-rubles” used to wage war against Ukraine.
“In September–October alone, these were 20 facilities: six refineries, two oil terminals, three oil depots, and nine oil pumping stations,” Malyuk said.
The strikes, he noted, caused up to a 20% shortage of petroleum products in Russia and led to a ban on gasoline exports until the end of this year.

The European Commission does not rule out legal action against Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary, which continue to impose unilateral bans on imports of Ukrainian goods — Politico.
According to the publication, the three countries are openly ignoring efforts to restore trade relations following the entry into force of the revised trade agreement with Kyiv. These unilateral bans on Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products violate EU single market rules that prohibit national trade barriers.
“We see no reason to maintain these national measures,” said European Commission deputy spokesman Olof Gill the day after the new EU trade agreement came into effect.
Gill added in an email that the EU executive would “intensify contacts” with the governments involved. When asked whether the Commission ruled out legal action, he replied that “all options remain open.”
Officials familiar with the talks note that politics could influence the issue. Taking Poland to court could strain relations with Donald Tusk’s pro-European government, while targeting Hungary and Slovakia alone might be seen as applying double standards.

🇺🇦🇱🇹 Ukraine for the first time handed over a Russian prisoner of war to Lithuania for criminal prosecution. He is accused of torturing civilians.
On October 30, the Vilnius District Court arrested the suspect for three months. He is a senior sailor of the Russian military police, captured near Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
According to the investigation, he tortured civilians and prisoners of war, using electric shocks, suffocation, and keeping people in metal safes at a local airfield. One of the victims was a Lithuanian citizen who was in Melitopol for private purposes.
In Lithuania, the Russian was charged with war crimes, violating the Geneva Conventions, and unlawful deprivation of liberty. He faces life imprisonment.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/11/2025 10:10

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian forces have launched a counteroffensive near Pokrovsk to regain control over key logistics lines.
Helicopters from Ukraine’s military intelligence (HUR) and special forces have landed directly in areas reportedly under Russian control.

Ukraine is preparing new long-range strikes deep inside Russia, (www.kyivpost.com/post/63396) President Zelensky revealed after meeting with top security and intelligence officials.

Ukraine’s most deadly combat arm, the drone forces, has kicked off a recruiting drive to increase its size from 15,000 to 30,000 pilots, (www.kyivpost.com/post/63382) maintenance crew and support personnel.

Western allies pledge support for Kyiv’s grid protection (www.kyivpost.com/post/63413) after Russia’s strikes on power lines threaten off-site cooling for nuclear facilities.

Ukraine said Russia has fired the Novator 9M729 missile – the same model that likely prompted Trump (www.kyivpost.com/post/63389) to withdraw from a nuclear pact in 2019 – a total of 23 times in recent months.

Ukraine’s military intelligence carried out a precision strike overnight that destroyed three lines of Russia’s critical “Ring” oil product pipeline (www.kyivpost.com/post/63422) in the Moscow region, delivering a significant blow to the Russian military and its economy.

🎙️New episode of OFF THE RECORD is now live.
🇪🇪Estonian Ambassador Annely Kolk joins Natalka Cmoc to talk about frontline courage, Soviet-era trauma, and what solidarity looks like in action.
Recorded the morning after Russia's strike on 10 regions.
Watch now:

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 01/11/2025 10:12

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian intelligence reportedly conducting an airborne special operation in Pokrovsk. What’s known so far:
The first to report on the operation was The Economist journalist Oliver Carroll, who shared a video showing troops being airlifted by helicopter into areas reportedly under Russian control.
Sources from Suspilne and RBC-Ukraine confirmed the video’s authenticity, saying Ukrainian military intelligence assault units entered sectors of Pokrovsk that Russian generals had declared “captured” and consider strategically vital for Ukraine’s logistics.
According to ZN.UA and Reuters, the operation is being personally overseen by HUR chief Kyrylo Budanov, who is reportedly on site. Budanov was notably absent from President Zelensky’s October 30 security briefing, which was attended by the heads of the SBU and the Foreign Intelligence Service.
Reuters also reports that the operation began earlier this week.

Russia struck Mykolaiv with a ballistic missile — reportedly an Iskander-M armed with a cluster warhead.
One person was killed and 15 others injured, including a child whose condition is described by doctors as moderate.

blueshoes · 01/11/2025 12:04

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-31-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Ukrainian forces marginally advanced during recent counterattacks north of Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Pokrovsk and east of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk).
  2. The Pentagon approved the provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine on October 31, but the final decision remains with US President Donald Trump.
  3. Russia and Belarus continue to threaten Europe with the future deployment of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus.
  4. Ukraine continues to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes against Russian air defense and energy infrastructure.
  5. Russian forces have repeatedly struck Ukraine with nuclear-capable 9M729 Novator ground-launched cruise missiles since August 2025, in apparent violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
  6. A German court convicted several citizens of conspiring to commit acts of sabotage in Germany on behalf of Russia, and Lithuanian authorities closed the Vilnius Airport due to more aerial incursions from Belarusian airspace.
  7. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov recently appointed former First Deputy Trade and Industry Minister Vasily Osmakov as Deputy Minister of Defense.
  8. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Pokrovsk.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
blueshoes · 02/11/2025 03:39

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-1-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian forces are intensifying offensive operations in and around Pokrovsk to seize the town.
  2. Ukrainian forces conducted a heliborne air assault operation west of Pokrovsk on October 31.
  3. Close combat, urban terrain, and weather conditions are impacting Ukrainian and Russian drone warfare and Russian infiltration tactics in and around Pokrovsk.
  4. Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil infrastructure in Moscow Oblast on the night of October 31 to November 1.
  5. Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea for the third time in three days, and German officials reported an unidentified drone incursion near the Berlin Brandenburg Airport.
  6. Russian authorities continue cracking down on Russian social media sources who share insider information about the Kremlin and Russian security services.
  7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Lyman. Russian forces recently advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, and Pokrovsk.
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 02/11/2025 10:35

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Drones spotted (kyivindependent.com/drones-spotted-over-military-base-in-belgium/) over military base in Belgium.
Several drones were spotted over the Kleine Brogel Air Base in Belgium late on Oct. 31, Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken announced on Nov. 1.
While officially unconfirmed, the airbase is widely believed to be the host to various U.S. nuclear weapons under NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangements. The base is also set to serve as the home to F-35 fighter jets beginning in 2027, Belga News Agency reported.

⚡️Update: Drones spotted over military base in Belgium for second time (kyivindependent.com/drones-spotted-over-military-base-in-belgium/) in 24 hours.
A drone was again spotted over the Kleine Brogel Air Base in Belgium late on Nov. 1 for the second time in less than 24 hours, local media outlets reported.

⚡️Ukraine reportedly strikes (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-reportedly-strikes-oil-terminal-in-russias-krasnodar-krai/) oil terminal in Russia's Krasnodar Krai.
Ukraine's military reportedly struck a loading pier of an oil terminal in Russia's Krasnodar Krai late on Nov. 1, Russian Telegram media channels reported.

Analysis: 5 lessons on air defense and underground architecture from Kharkiv
(kyivindependent.com/analysis-5-lessons-on-drones-wartime-ukraine-from-kharkiv/)
The Kyiv Independent’s reporter Kollen Post shares key insights on Kharkiv’s air defense and growing underground infrastructure following a reporting trip to the city.

⚡️Russia kills (kyivindependent.com/russia-kills-at-least-4-injures-51-across-ukraine-over-past-day/) at least 15, injures 20 across Ukraine over past day.
At least 15 civilians have been killed and 20 others injured over the past day in Russian attacks across Ukraine, Ukrainian officials said on Nov. 2.
According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia targeted Ukraine overnight with two Iskander M ballistic missiles and 79 attack drones.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 1h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — NOV 2, 2025
■ Engagements and casualties remain below the 7-day average Losses of unarmored vehicles and artillery are above average
■ Overnight attacks: double-digit, including 2 missiles (Iskander-M); decent interception rate
■ Single-digit 🇺🇦 strikes, 🇷🇺 strikes slightly below average

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
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