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Ukraine Invasion: Part 59

1000 replies

MagicFox · 17/10/2025 22:11

Well, it’s thread 59.

Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

OP posts:
Thread gallery
441
AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 18/12/2025 14:41

How much is it costing to destroy fishing boats off Venezuela? Or how much did it cost to bomb Iran this year? Those examples spring immediately to mind, but I'm sure there are plenty of other non-European pies the USA has its fingers in up to the elbow.

PerkingFaintly · 18/12/2025 15:01

Britain used to have an empire: it was very expensive to run in terms of military expenditure. Of course it paid for itself in terms of our economic gain.

Being a global superpower – the modern version of empire - costs similarly. It also usually accrues economic gains.

PerkingFaintly · 18/12/2025 15:08

Sorry, that's a long way of saying:

The US spending more on its military than countries which are not maintaining an empire is a "no shit, Sherlock".

But that doesn't make me any less grateful for the $800 million Congress just allocated to Ukraine over the next 2 years (ie $400 a year).

Amongst other things, it may be a sign that the US Congress does want Ukraine to actually exist as a sovereign state, rather than be a province of Russia.

PerkingFaintly · 18/12/2025 20:33

Thank you, @MissConductUS . It's appreciated and good to see.

And I say that as a Brit, not even as a Ukrainian.

blueshoes · 18/12/2025 21:57

Thanks @MissConductUS.

I know it must be so but it is always good to be reminded that Trump does not represent the views of all Americans or even many of those of his party on the issue of Ukraine. I want to believe in the decency and humanity of the American people not to abandon Ukraine to Russia whilst things move so frustratingly slowly in Europe.

blueshoes · 19/12/2025 02:46

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-18-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continue to publicly demonstrate their commitment to achieving Russia’s original war aims while exaggerating Russian battlefield gains.
  2. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to signal his commitment to compromise in negotiations as high-ranking Kremlin officials continue to publicly and explicitly reject significant points of the peace plan currently under discussion.
  3. Three Russian border guards briefly crossed into Estonian territory on December 17.
  4. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.
DuncinToffee · 19/12/2025 08:34

Eurobonds becoming the emergency funding mechanism of choice.
https://www.ft.com/content/e5691048-696b-44cd-8a0a-50b917e3d62a

DuncinToffee · 19/12/2025 08:37

Explanation thread by Steve Peers

A quick explanation of how this borrowing to assist Ukraine will work. "Enhanced cooperation" means EU law is being used, but some Member States opt out. The process has been applied a few times before, but never before re the EU budget. 1/

2/ Authorisation of enhanced cooperation needs a proposal from the EU Commission, a qualified majority of Member States, and consent of the European Parliament. Presumably the Commission will propose this shortly; it can be fast tracked.

3/ The budget law amendment (ie the proposal to amend the MFF, already tabled by the Commission) then needs only the unanimity of the participating Member States, ie the 24 which will presumably state their intention to participate, not the three that will opt out (and consent of the EP again).

4/ Crucially, this means that Ukraine is still being financed. The source of that support is not Russian assets (at least for now). But remember that those assets remain frozen, by a law the EU passed already. Obviously this is far better outcome for Ukraine than no funding at all.

5/ This also means that Ukraine has more leverage in peace talks, not facing a huge financial shortfall. Despite not using the Russian assets, it's still a decisive move by the EU. (Assuming that the further steps go as planned, and there are no successful challenges to these laws in the EU courts)

https://bsky.app/profile/stevepeers.bsky.social/post/3macomt7hz22t

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/12/2025 09:36

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Update: 'Breakthrough' – Poland’s Tusk says EU agrees to pursue use of Russian assets (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-brussels-to-attend-crucial-eu-summit/) for Ukraine.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced a "breakthrough" at the EU summit, saying that a "declaration that we all want to use Russian assets for Ukraine was made."
He said that further "technical discussions" are still needed as "the countries which are the most at risk of Russian financial reprisals in the future, mainly Belgium... are looking for safeguards."

⚡️EU leaders agree on $105 billion loan (kyivindependent.com/eu-leaders-agree-on-105-billion-loan-to-secure-ukraines-financing-through-2027/) to secure Ukraine’s financing through 2027.
European leaders approved an interest-free loan for Ukraine, providing a financial lifeline and securing the cash-strapped country’s financing needs for at least the next two years, EU Council President Antonio Costa said.

⚡️Trump signs (kyivindependent.com/trump-signs-defense-spending-bill-into-law-providing-400-million-annually-in-military-assistance-to-ukraine-through-2027/) defense spending bill into law, providing $400 million annually in military assistance to Ukraine through 2027

⚡️Zelensky supports (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-supports-online-voting-in-future-presidential-election/) online voting in future presidential election.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Dec. 18 that he supports online voting for Ukrainians living abroad in a future presidential election.

⚡️Russia’s Oreshnik ballistic missile deployed to Belarus (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-s-oreshnik-ballistic-missile-deployed-to-belarus-lukashenko-says/), Lukashenko says
A Russian ballistic missile system known as Oreshnik has been deployed to Belarus and has entered active combat duty, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said during a press conference on Dec. 18

US, Ukraine minerals deal will finally go live (kyivindependent.com/us-ukraine-minerals-deal-will-finally-go-live-in-2026/)in 2026
The joint U.S.-Ukraine investment fund, known as the minerals deal, will go live early next year, Ukraine's Economy Ministry said in a press release.
The fund's board of directors reached final consensus on several administrative steps on Dec. 18, paving the way for the fund to accept investments starting in early 2026, the statement said.

⚡️'Irreparable loss' (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-mi-24-helicopter-crew-killed-in-combat-mission-brigade-says/) — Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter crew killed in combat mission, brigade says.
A Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter crew was killed during a combat mission, Ukraine's 12th Separate Army Aviation Brigade reported Dec. 18.

⚡️Ukrainian passport (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-passports-appear-in-newly-released-epstein-photos/) appears in newly released Epstein photos.
Democratic members of the U.S. Congress released additional photos from the Jeffrey Epstein estate on Dec. 18, including images of a Ukrainian woman's passport.

⚡️Nearly 60% of Ukrainians see Zelensky as responsible (kyivindependent.com/59-of-ukrainians-see-zelensky-as-responsible-for-his-associate-role-in-major-corruption-scandal-poll-shows/) for his associate's role in major corruption scandal, poll shows.
According to the survey, 77% of Ukrainians are aware of the investigation, and 59% believe President Volodymyr Zelensky bears responsibility for the recent corruption scandal.

⚡️Russian drone hits civilian car (kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-hits-civilian-car-in-odesa-oblast-killing-mother-and-injuring-3-children-governor-says/) in Odesa Oblast, killing mother and injuring 3 children, governor says

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 1h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — DEC 19, 2025
■ Russian area gains confirmed, paid for with heavy losses in recent days
■ Engagements and casualties above the 7-day average; the same applies to UAV and APV losses
■ Overnight attacks: triple-digit, all drones; interception rate could be better, 23 locations hit
■ Strikes on both sides well above average
■ Current conditions: snow in Kyiv and Kharkiv; fog in Pokrovsk

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/12/2025 09:42

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The United States is preparing new sanctions against Russia, according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
“We will be ready to implement them as early as next week. The decision will depend on how the situation develops,” he said.

🇺🇦🇨🇳 Negotiations between Ukraine and China took place in Beijing.
The sides discussed plans for further contacts at the highest levels and ways to strengthen trade, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry.

The United States and Europe have developed a security plan for Ukraine in the event of a second Russian attack, Bloomberg reports.
According to the agency, the backbone of Ukraine’s post-war defense would be the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with a strength of about 800,000 troops. The US and its allies would provide intelligence support and weapons. Troops from the “Coalition of the Willing” would also be deployed in Ukraine.
In the event of renewed Russian aggression, Ukrainian forces would take the first blow. Allies would initially apply diplomatic measures, but if these fail, they would provide military support with the participation of the United States, the report says. [snorts deja vu]

“We understand that Russia wants to exclude Europeans from the negotiations. This cannot be allowed,” Zelenskyy said.
According to the president, Europe’s presence at the negotiating table would reduce the risk of a renewed Russian attack.

“My goal is to get an answer to the question of how the United States will respond in the event of a repeat attack,” Zelenskyy said.
“What will the US do if Russia resorts to aggression again? How will it work? How will our partners respond? By what means will Moscow be stopped? Let the answer be private, but documented,” the president said.

☢️ Donbas, reparations, and control over the Zaporizhzhia NPP remain the key sensitive issues, Zelenskyy said.
According to the president, no specific agreements have been reached on these issues, but they have been raised. The United States proposed a compromise involving control over the plant “from three sides,” but Zelenskyy called this option unfair and overly complex.
“We had a long discussion, and I told them it was unfair. It’s not just that it’s our plant. Our people work there. This must be discussed with the IAEA. There is also the question of who will restore the plant. It is linked to the rebuilding of a dam in the occupied territories, which the Russians blew up. Who will pay for it? There are more questions than answers,” he said.

👏 The UN General Assembly adopted a resolution on human rights violations in the Ukrainian territories.
The document was supported by 79 countries, opposed by 16, with 73 abstentions. Russia, Belarus, North Korea, China, Iran, Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Sudan, Mali, Zimbabwe, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Cuba, and Nicaragua voted against.
The resolution strengthens international monitoring of serious violations of human rights and humanitarian law and emphasizes the need for accountability, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

🇺🇦🥊 The Ukrainian national team took first place in the overall standings at the U17 European Boxing Championship.
Ukrainian athletes won 17 medals — 6 gold, 6 silver, and 5 bronze — becoming the best team of the tournament.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/12/2025 09:44

Note about the UN resolution and the countries who voted against: this rather shows the success that Russia is having in the extremely poor African countries.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/12/2025 09:47

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russia’s central bank said it plans to broaden its legal response beyond its lawsuit against Belgium-based (www.kyivpost.com/post/66536) depository Euroclear and seek damages from European banks in a Russian court over attempts to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine.

Ukraine approves draft laws to join SEPA, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66538) aiming to cut euro transfer costs, speed payments, and align financial rules with EU standards.

EU leaders found a way to provide a €90 billion loan to Ukraine, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66541) even if it still has not found an agreement to use frozen Russian assets for such funding.
“We have a deal. Decision to provide 90 billion euros of support to Ukraine for 2026-27 approved,” EU chief Antonio Costa wrote on social media.

US Congress is moving aggressively on two fronts to squeeze Putin’s war economy, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66547) pairing a House push for sanctions with a Senate effort to seize oil tankers helping fuel Russia’s invasion.

Russia was rocked overnight as drone attacks struck seven regions, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66552) cutting power and heating, shutting schools in Oryol and sparking a fire at the TogliattiAzot chemical plant.

The largest Western bank still operating in Russia, Raiffeisen Bank International, has been ordered to pay nearly $400 million (www.kyivpost.com/post/66542) in compensation to a Russian company over losses linked to European sanctions.

Russia is preparing contacts with the United States to understand how much Trump’s peace plan has changed following consultations with Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/12/2025 09:50

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Three Russian border guards crossed the border into Estonia without permission
The incident occurred on the morning of December 17 on a narrow strip near the Narva River. The Russians remained on Estonian territory for approximately 20 minutes.
It is currently unknown whether this was an intentional provocation; however, Estonia has already increased security in this section of the border.
In light of the incident, a meeting between Russian and Estonian officials is scheduled for today.

🇨🇭A man who fought for Ukraine has been sentenced in Switzerland
Avi M., 49, was convicted under the article on mercenary activities, as serving in foreign armies is prohibited in Switzerland. According to SRF, this is the first such verdict in the country related to the war in Ukraine.
The man was sentenced to 18 months of conditional imprisonment with a probation period of 4 years. He was not present at the trial — Avi M. currently resides in Israel and holds dual citizenship.
"My primary motivation has always been the same: I don't want to pack any more small children into plastic bags. If my work results in even one fewer child dying, it was already worth it. Many things that would be right are illegal," the man said in a 2023 interview with Rundschau.

The youngest victim of the shooting in Sydney, Australia, was the 10-year-old daughter of Ukrainian immigrants, reports the BBC.
Matilda’s parents, Mykhailo and Valentyna, were born in Ukraine but later moved to Australia. The farewell ceremony for the young girl took place today, December 18.
Her parents chose the name Matilda in honor of the song "Waltzing Matilda," often referred to as Australia's unofficial national anthem — a gesture of gratitude to the country that provided refuge for their family.
Among those killed in the shooting was also Alex Kleytman, a Ukrainian-born Holocaust survivor who had lived in Australia for over half a century with his wife. Witnesses report that the 87-year-old man died while shielding his wife from the gunfire.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
DuncinToffee · 19/12/2025 10:59

Putin's end of year address

Putin on Ukraine: “We do not believe that we’re responsible for the death of people because we did not start this war.”

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 19/12/2025 14:06

I was just explaining to my son what the word 'hypocrisy' meant this morning.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/12/2025 11:14

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️US launches large-scale strike in Syria (kyivindependent.com/us-launches-large-scale-strike-in-syria-targeting-isis/) targeting ISIS.
"This is not the beginning of a war — it is a declaration of vengeance," U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth wrote on X.

⚡️Update: EU leaders agree on $105 billion loan to (kyivindependent.com/eu-leaders-agree-on-105-billion-loan-to-secure-ukraines-financing-through-2027/) buffer Ukraine’s finances, fail on Russian assets plan.
“This is significant support that truly strengthens our resilience,” President Zelensky said. (https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/17362)

⚡️Ukraine's delegation to meet (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-delegation-to-meet-american-officials-in-us-for-new-round-of-talks/) American officials in US for new round of talks.
Kyiv has already held consultations with European partners and is now preparing for continued discussions with the U.S., according to deligation head, Rustem Umerov. General Andrii Hnatov, chief of Ukraine's General Staff, will also take part in the talk

Update: Ukraine’s Finance Minister calls on EU leaders (kyivindependent.com/eu-leaders-agree-on-105-billion-loan-to-secure-ukraines-financing-through-2027/) to keep working towards the reparations loan, backed by frozen Russian assets.

⚡️ Update: Putin says Russia could 'ensure security (kyivindependent.com/putin-opens-annual-presser-with-maximalist-demands/)' for Ukrainian voters during wartime elections.
"At the very least, we will refrain from striking deep into the territory on election day," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

⚡️ Update: Putin admits Russian economic growth slowing (kyivindependent.com/putin-opens-annual-presser-with-maximalist-demands/), calls it a 'deliberate' move.
"The slowdown in economic growth is a conscious step, a price to pay for maintaining the quality of the economy," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

⚡️ Update: Putin warns Kaliningrad blockade (kyivindependent.com/putin-opens-annual-presser-with-maximalist-demands/)would trigger 'large-scale armed conflict' with Europe.
"Actions of this kind will simply lead to an unprecedented escalation of the conflict, taking it to a completely different level," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

⚡️Ukrainian special forces hit Russian patrol ship and oil platform in Caspian Sea (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-special-forces-hit-russian-hunter-patrol-ship-with-kamikaze-drone/).
Ukraine's Special Operations Forces (SSO) carried out kamikaze drone strikes on a Russian patrol ship and an oil platform in the Caspian Sea on Dec. 19, the SSO reported on Dec. 20.

SSO drones hit a Russian oil platform located at the Filanovsky oil and gas field in the Caspian Sea. The platform is owned by Russian oil company Lukoil and is used for oil and gas extraction.

⚡️Ukrainian drones hit (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drone-strike-hits-russias-shadow-fleet-tanker-in-mediterranean-sea-for-the-first-time-source-says) Russia's shadow fleet tanker in Mediterranean Sea for the first time, source says.
In "a new unprecedented special operation" in neutral waters more than 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine, Russia's QENDIL tanker sustained "critical damage" and can no longer be used for its intended purpose, the source claimed.

⚡️ Update: Putin falsely claims Russia 'did not start this war (kyivindependent.com/putin-opens-annual-presser-with-maximalist-demands/),' denies responsibility for deaths.
"We do not consider ourselves responsible for the deaths of people because we did not start this war," Russian President Vladimir Putin said.

Fact-check: Debunking Russian propaganda (kyivindependent.com/fact-check-washington-visit-revives-fakes-about-persecution-of-christians-in-ukraine/)about 'persecution of Christians' in Ukraine
The supposed "persecution of Christians" in Ukraine ranks among the most popular tropes of Russian disinformation.
Kremlin propaganda has sought to cast the state's push to limit the influence of the Kremlin-linked Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP) — whose clergymen have aided Russia during the war — as an assault on Christians.
Though Ukraine is religiously diverse, Orthodox Christianity remains the dominant faith, with the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) being the country's most popular denomination.

⚡️Ukraine says 1,003 bodies of fallen soldiers returned home (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-says-1-003-bodies-of-fallen-soldiers-return-home).
Ukraine will conduct necessary examinations to identify the bodies, which Russia says belong to Ukrainian soldiers, the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War reported.

⚡️Russia attacks Odesa Oblast with ballistic missiles (kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-odesa-oblast-with-ballistic-missiles-at-least-7-killed-15-injured/), at least 7 killed, 15 injured.
Russian ballistic missiles "massively attacked" a port infrastructure facility in the region, Governor Oleh Kiper said. Seven are dead and 15 injured victims have been hospitalized.

⚡️At least 1 killed (kyivindependent.com/at-least-1-killed-20-injured-in-russian-attacks-on-ukraine-over-past-day/), 20 injured in Russian attacks on Ukraine over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 50m
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — DEC 20, 2025
■ Lower activity; no area change, but 30-day 🇷🇺 gains are lower
■ Relatively few overnight attacks due to weather, but the interception rate could be better
■ Four 🇺🇦 strikes reported; solid artillery losses

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/12/2025 11:22

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

How Ukraine Quietly Launched Kupiansk Operation as Putin Claimed "Victory" (united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/how-ukraine-quietly-launched-kupiansk-operation-as-putin-claimed-victory-14388)
The Kremlin has claimed it gained full control over the city of Kupiansk so many times, it almost seems to believe it. In reality, Ukraine’s Armed Forces have carried out a series of successful counterattacks, pushing Russian troops back.

Eight people were killed and 27 injured in a Russian ballistic missile strike on port infrastructure in the Odesa region.
Some of the injured were passengers on a bus that was at the epicenter of the strike.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck two Russian Su-27 aircraft at the Belbek airfield.
“One of the aircraft was on the taxiway with full ammunition and ready for a combat sortie. It was destroyed.
The estimated cost of both aircraft is about $70 million.
The control tower was also damaged, which may complicate the organization and control of flights at the airfield.

“I thank Japan and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for the decision to provide additional financial support to Ukraine next year. The total amount of support is almost $6 billion, and it will help strengthen our defense against Russian aggression,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine offers Poland cooperation in maritime security and protection against drones, President Zelenskyy said.
“Today, Ukraine has the most advanced technologies to protect people’s lives and strong capabilities in weapons production. Modern and effective weapons. I offer Poland all this experience,” the president noted.
Moreover, Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of cooperation at sea, given Poland’s position in the Baltic Sea, and confirmed Ukraine’s readiness to continue a security dialogue with Poland, taking into account threats from Belarus.

Germany allocates an additional €70 million to support Ukraine’s energy sustainability, according to the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The funds will be used to develop decentralized energy supply and heating systems amid targeted Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
Thanks to this support, about 2.6 million Ukrainians are expected to receive heat, water, and electricity in the short term, even if centralized networks are damaged.

❤️‍🩹💡 “Shchedryk” was performed in the engine room of a Ukrainian Energy Company DTEK thermal power plant destroyed by Russian attacks
https://t.me/United24media/38296

The Russian “Oreshnik” missile cannot strike Kyiv from Belarus, Defense Express reports.
The outlet says claims that the missile could reach Kyiv in 111 seconds are technically incorrect and are a propaganda myth.
Defense Express experts explain that medium-range ballistic missiles have not only a maximum but also a minimum range. For the “Oreshnik,” this minimum is about 700 kilometers.
The distance from any point in Belarus to Kyiv is shorter than that. Because of this, the missile would physically be unable to hit the capital, as its stages would not complete the required flight cycle.
Calculations of “hundreds of seconds” are also wrong. They are based on simply dividing distance by maximum speed, without accounting for the complex high-arc ballistic trajectory.
The missile’s solid-fuel engines cannot be shut down or slowed for a short-range strike.
Therefore, Defense Express concludes that if deployed in Belarus, the “Oreshnik” could threaten more distant European capitals, but Kyiv and most of Ukraine remain effectively out of its reach.

Lyman, Ukraine, is fully covered in a web of fiber-optic cables left by Ukrainian and Russian drone operators. https://t.me/United24media/38308

During her weekly briefing, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claimed that Europe has cut back on energy so much that it cannot afford Christmas illuminations.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/12/2025 11:27

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Zelensky made a surprise trip to Poland (www.kyivpost.com/post/66624) after weeks of tension, sealing a key political win for Warsaw and Kyiv — and delivering bad news for Moscow.

The UK government has abandoned plans to expropriate frozen Russian assets after a similar proposal failed in the EU, The Financial Times reports.

US Secretary of State Rubio has signalled a shift toward a more transactional American foreign policy on NATO, Ukraine and Russia, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66634) with his year-end appearance suggesting an approach driven more by calculation than solidarity — unsettling allies across Europe.

Macron said Europe must find its own way to engage Putin in peace talks, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66588) warning that relying solely on US-led negotiations sidelines Europe and Ukraine.

Russia’s central bank cut its benchmark rate to 16% on Friday, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66599) a sign of mounting economic strain as the cost of the war in Ukraine and Western pressure weigh on growth.

Ukraine has secured creditor approval to eliminate its GDP-linked warrants, (www.kyivpost.com/post/66585) a move the finance ministry says will save billions and reduce fiscal volatility during post-war recovery.

A deadly missile submarine that the Kremlin said was “completely undamaged” (www.kyivpost.com/post/66611) by a Ukrainian drone attack hasn’t moved a meter from its moorings in four days and now has started to leak oil, according to new satellite imagery of the Russian naval port Novorossiysk.

This December, Kyiv Post supports the Children of Heroes Charity Fund to bring hope to Ukrainian kids who have lost parents to the war.
Over 8,000 children are still waiting for their Christmas gift. We can’t bring loved ones back, but together, we can brighten their holidays.
Read more about the initiative:
www.kyivpost.com/childrenheroes-christmas
👉 Donate via the link: childrenofheroes.donorsupport.co/page/fundraiser_presents_kp

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/12/2025 11:33

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has confirmed strikes in the Caspian Sea.
On the night of Friday, December 19, several Ukrainian drones struck a patrol ship of the Russian Border Service (Project "Hunter"). The vessel was patrolling the Caspian Sea near a drilling platform at the V. Filanovsky oil and gas field, which was also targeted in the attack.
The Russian Border Service operates only one such ship in the Caspian Sea—the "Rasul Gamzatov." It was commissioned in November 2021.
Additionally, in occupied Crimea, Ukrainian forces destroyed an RSP-6M2 radar. This system is used to regulate aircraft movement, specifically for guiding them during landing in low-visibility conditions.

❗️The SBU has for the first time attacked a Russian shadow fleet tanker in the neutral waters of the Mediterranean Sea, according to "Babel" sources within the special service.
The tanker QENDIL was targeted. At the time, it was not carrying any cargo, so there was no threat to the environment.
As a result of the attack, the tanker sustained critical damage and can no longer be used for its intended purpose.
Sources emphasize that Russia used this tanker to bypass sanctions and generate money to fund the war against Ukraine, making it a legitimate target for the SBU.

🇧🇾 109 former Belarusian political prisoners, who were released via Ukrainian territory, have been transported to Poland and Lithuania.
A total of 114 political prisoners were handed over to Ukraine; however, five of them are Ukrainian citizens.
▪️On December 13, as part of an agreement between the leaders of Belarus and the U.S., 123 prisoners were released—citizens of various countries who had been convicted in Belarus for "espionage, terrorism, and extremism." In exchange, the U.S. lifted sanctions on the Belarusian potash industry. Notably, Belarus refused to release the political prisoners through EU countries, agreeing instead to transfer them via Ukraine.

🇦🇺🇺🇦 Australia has delivered the final batch of promised Abrams tanks to Ukraine, reports ABC.
The last 12 out of 49 M1A1 Abrams were recently delivered to Ukraine.
Accompanied by Australian military personnel, the tanks were sent by cargo ship in October. After 55 days, they arrived at a classified location in Poland, where they were inspected and prepared for transfer to Ukraine.
▪️Australia had 59 M1A1 Abrams tanks in service, purchased in 2007. They were never deployed in a combat zone and were decommissioned in July 2024. A decision was made to transfer some of them to Ukraine. The first 37 tanks arrived in Ukraine in July of this year.

blueshoes · 20/12/2025 13:56

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-19-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian President Vladimir Putin used his annual Direct Line televised press conference on December 19 to reaffirm his commitment to achieving his full war aims in Ukraine.
  2. Putin made even more exaggerated claims about Russian battlefield victories than his senior military officials have made in recent days.
  3. Putin continued to praise the strength and resilience of the Russian economy, but Kremlin economic policies indicate that the economy is performing markedly worse than Putin is portraying.
  4. Putin continues to promote Russia as a multinational, multireligious state ahead of the Year of the Unity of the Peoples of Russia in 2026.
  5. Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide financial support to Ukraine.
  6. Ukrainian forces continue their strike campaign against Russia’s shadow fleet.
  7. Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya tactical areas.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
MMBaranova · 20/12/2025 17:44

This was a minor provocation. You need to deliberately head out to that feature in the river.

Prodding Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, who all have substantial Russian speaking minorities who have generally been disadvantaged in the post-Soviet collapse nation building, will probably be a feature of 2026.

The motives are not unclear. It's a little test.

news.err.ee/1609888417/russian-border-guards-crossed-into-estonia-with-unclear-motives-minister-says

MMBaranova · 20/12/2025 18:07

The map image that is being used is a bit naughty. Vasknarva (bottom of my first map) is at the entry point of the Narva river as it exits Lake Peipus to head north to pass between Narva (Estonia) and Ivangorod (Russia) and on to the Gulf of Finland (an edge zone of the Baltic with St P at the east end).

I haven't been to Vasknarva (have been to Narva, more on that eventually). It's a small settlement in Estonia that is ethnically Russian. If you do mixed religious metaphors, the residents are the Wee Frees of Orthodoxy as they are Old Believers.

The structure they look out at across the river is contiguous with Russian territory. See my second image. The border guards can probably walk to it. Its an easily grabbable piece of nowhere.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
PerkingFaintly · 20/12/2025 19:45

A deadly missile submarine that the Kremlin said was “completely undamaged” (www.kyivpost.com/post/66611) by a Ukrainian drone attack hasn’t moved a meter from its moorings in four days and now has started to leak oil, according to new satellite imagery of the Russian naval port Novorossiysk.

That's nice to see. I don't know that not moving from moorings is significant, but an oil leak after an attack is presumably A Sign.

Satellite Pix: Russian Missile Sub Hit by Ukraine Undersea Drone Is Stationary, Leaking Oil

The Kremlin said Kyiv’s underwater drone attack into a Russian naval base left its Kilo-class sub “undamaged and fully mission-capable,” but evidence says something else.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/66611)

notimagain · 20/12/2025 19:54

FWIW there have been reports in some places that the Russians have blocked that harbour entrance with barges and other fairly substantial obstacles to prevent a repeat....

Sort of sounds sensible from their POV but probably means nothing is going to get in or out easily.

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