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Ukraine Invasion: Part 59

1000 replies

MagicFox · 17/10/2025 22:11

Well, it’s thread 59.

Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

OP posts:
Thread gallery
441
DuncinToffee · 17/12/2025 12:32

BREAKING: Keir Starmer announces govt has issued a licence which permits transfer of over £2.5 billion proceeds from sale of Chelsea FC into new foundation for humanitarian purposes in Ukraine - and urges Roman Abramovic to honour his commitment to hand over money.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/17/uk-will-transfer-abramovich-cash-from-sale-of-chelsea-to-ukraine-fund-starmer-says

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/12/2025 16:22

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia rejects Christmas truce (kyivindependent.com/kremlin-rejects-christmas-truce-peskov-says/) as U.S. ramps up peace push
Russia rejected a Christmas truce because it could give Ukraine a temporary respite, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Dec. 16.

What we know about Russia’s offensive in Siversk (kyivindependent.com/what-we-know-about-russias-offensive-in-siversk/)
Russia’s renewed offensive on the front-line city of Siversk in Donetsk Oblast has sparked weeks of heavy fighting even as Moscow has claimed that the city has already fallen.
The push has brought fresh attention to Siversk, a small but important outpost that Russian forces have sought to capture since late 2022.

⚡️Ukraine war latest live: Russia ramping up pressure on Myrnohrad as fight in Pokrovsk outskirts (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-12-16/) continues

Russia's strong currency puzzles (kyivindependent.com/not-a-success-russias-strong-ruble-puzzles-economists-exposes-weak-bases-of-economy/) economists, signals economic woes
Since early December, the Russian ruble has continued to strengthen against global currencies: on Dec. 7, it reached a value of only 76 rubles for one U.S. dollar, a figure unseen since May 2023.
Ruble's strength came despite increasing sanction pressure by the Trump administration, which began targeting Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft in October.

⚡️ UK pledges over $800 million (kyivindependent.com/uk-pledges-over-800-million-for-ukraines-air-defense/) for Ukraine's air defenses.
The funds will be used to purchase "thousands of air defense systems, missiles, and automated turrets to shoot down drones," U.K. Defense Minister John Healey said.

Leaders sign treaty (kyivindependent.com/leaders-sign-treaty-establishing-body-to-decide-ukraine-war-reparations/) establishing body to decide Ukraine war reparations
Zelensky, together with 35 leaders, signed off on Tuesday, Dec. 16, on the creation of an international body that would decide on compensation claims tied to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but left unanswered the question of how the organization will be funded.

⚡️Ukrainian drones reportedly strike oil refinery (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-reportedly-strike-oil-refinery-in-russias-krasnodar-krai-2/) in Russia's Krasnodar Krai.

⚡️Russian KAB bomb attack hits apartment buildings (kyivindependent.com/russian-bombs-hit-residential-building-injure-at-least-26-in-zaporizhzhia-as-russia-rejects-christmas-truce/) in Zaporizhzhia, injuring at least 26
Russia attacked the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia with KAB bombs the morning of Dec. 17, injuring at least 26 people, including a child, Governor Ivan Fedorov said.

⚡️Update: 13,000 without power (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-reportedly-strike-oil-refinery-in-russias-krasnodar-krai-2/) in Russia's Krasnodar Krai after Ukrainian drone strike, officials claim.

⚡️US senators introduce bipartisan sanctions bill (https://kyivindependent.com/us-senators-introduce-bipartisan-sanctions-bill-targeting-russian-oil-profits/) targeting Russian oil profits.
The Decrease Russian Oil Profits (DROP) Act would impose targeted sanctions on anyone dealing in Russian oil, effectively barring them from the U.S. financial system.

⚡️ Western peacekeepers in Ukraine could retaliate (kyivindependent.com/western-peacekeepers-in-ukraine-could-retaliate-against-russian-ceasefire-violations-merz-says/) against Russian attacks post-ceasefire, Merz says.
"We would secure a demilitarized zone between the belligerent parties and, to be specific, we would also move against corresponding Russian violations and attacks," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.

Chart of the week: Every month, tens of thousands of Ukrainians flee danger
(kyivindependent.com/chart-of-the-week-every-month-tens-of-thousands-of-ukrainians-flee-danger/)
As peace talks intensify, European leaders rush to iron out the minutiae of a new funding package for Ukraine, and BlackRock's Larry Fink dips his toe back in reconstruction talks, tens of thousands of people continue to evacuate their homes every single month due to Russia's full-scale invasion.
According to the United Nations' International Organization for Migration, 48,000 people were forced to leave their homes in November 2025 — adding to their estimate of roughly 3.7 million people who are internally displaced in Ukraine today.

The war's hidden explosions: The mental health toll (kyivindependent.com/the-wars-hidden-explosions-the-mental-health-toll-inside-ukraines-homes/) inside Ukraine's homes
"If Ukraine's recovery plans focus only on reconstruction and not on mental health, the country risks rebuilding its cities while its homes remain unwell," writes Jacqueline Mahon, United Nations Population Fund representative to Ukraine, in this op-ed.

⚡️Two Ukrainian films shortlisted for 98th Academy Awards (kyivindependent.com/two-ukrainian-films-shortlisted-for-98th-academy-awards-nominations/) nominations.
Mstyslav Chernov’s "2000 Meters to Andriivka," a documentary chronicling Ukrainian troops’ perilous advance to retake a strategically important village from Russian forces, has been nominated for best documentary feature.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 5h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — DEC 17, 2025
■ Highest casualties since Mar 28; both land-based equipment losses and engagements well above average
■ Overnight attacks: double-digit, all drones; interception rate could be better, with twelve locations hit
■ Also overnight: 🇺🇦 struck another oil refinery, this time in Krasnodar

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/12/2025 16:29

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

“The Russian side has no intention of making any concessions on Donbas, the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, or Crimea; these are not up for discussion,” Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov said.
“We now have five constituent entities, and we absolutely cannot compromise on them, because that would be a revision of a very fundamental element of our statehood, enshrined in our constitution.”

🤬 Russia has acknowledged its intention to continue fighting. Amid peace talks, the Russian Defense Ministry has called accelerating the offensive a “key task” for 2026.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said Moscow’s priority next year is to maintain and increase the “gained pace of the offensive.”

The European Parliament has passed a law banning Russian gas imports by autumn 2027 with an absolute majority.
A total of 500 MEPs voted in favor, 120 voted against, and 32 abstained.

Germany has delivered two Patriot air defense systems promised in August to Ukraine, as well as the ninth IRIS-T system.
Next year, Germany will transfer “a significant number of AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles from our stocks to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense.”

Ukraine has not yet discussed with the United States the duration or validity of security guarantees, President Zelenskyy said at a joint press conference with Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof.
“It is difficult to say for how many years these guarantees would apply. We are not discussing this yet, nor whether certain guarantees will be limited or not.

President Zelenskyy said that Russia loses about 30,000 soldiers killed each month in its war against Ukraine.

Russian oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since the start of the full-scale war, according to Bloomberg.
The price of Russian crude has dropped to just over $40 per barrel on average, down 28% from three months ago, Argus Media reports. This is the lowest level since February 2022.
The decline is driven by increased Western pressure on Russian oil trade, sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil, and lower global prices—benchmark crude recently fell below $60 per barrel for the first time since May.
Oil and gas revenues make up about a quarter of Russia’s budget, so the falling prices and reduced exports are increasing pressure on the Kremlin’s finances and its ability to fund the war. Key buyers, including India and China, are also cutting purchases or demanding record discounts.

🇺🇦 Sixty Ukrainians have returned home from Russia and the temporarily occupied territories, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported.
As part of the family reunification procedure, 15 Ukrainian citizens were returned. Most of them have limited mobility.
Another 45 Ukrainians were brought back after being held in temporary detention centers for foreigners on the territory of the Russian Federation.

15 countries have pledged to support Ukraine with funding and weapons, Defense Minister Shmyhal said.
🇩🇪 Germany will provide €11.5 billion in military support in 2026.
🇬🇧 The UK will strengthen Ukraine’s air defense with £600 million, using frozen Russian assets, its own budget, and partner funds.
🇨🇦 Canada will allocate an additional CAD 30 million for drones.
🇳🇱 The Netherlands has pledged €700 million for UAVs.
🇲🇪 Montenegro, 🇩🇰 Denmark, and 🇳🇿 New Zealand will contribute to PURL, an initiative that allows NATO allies to purchase US weapons for Ukraine.
🇪🇪 Estonia will contribute €9 million to the IT coalition.
🇱🇹 Lithuania will provide over €200 million in military support in 2026, while 🇱🇻 Latvia will continue contributing at least 0.25% of GDP, about €110 million.
🇱🇺 Luxembourg will donate €100 million to support Ukraine, plus $15 million under the PURL program.
🇳🇴 Norway has pledged about $7 billion in total military aid.
🇵🇹 Portugal will allocate €10 million for UAVs.
🇵🇱 Poland will supply 155 mm artillery shells, and 🇨🇿 the Czech Republic will finance the delivery of 760,000 artillery shells.

🤬 Putin signed a law allowing the seizure of Ukrainians’ homes in temporarily occupied territories.
Homes deemed to show “signs of ownerless property” will be recognized as the property of the occupation administrations. They may then be transferred to federal ownership and handed over to the Territorial Development Fund, which will be allowed to rent out or sell the housing.
The criteria for declaring property “ownerless” will be determined by the occupation administrations themselves.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/12/2025 16:35

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The Kremlin has thrown more than 700,000 troops (www.kyivpost.com/post/66434) into its latest offensive, Ukraine’s army chief Oleksandr Syrsky warns.
Ukrainian defenses are holding, but the situation remains “complicated.”

Moldova has warned its citizens in Russia about possible forced military contracts (www.kyivpost.com/post/66328) as Ukraine’s intelligence reports a growing Russian military and hybrid operation in Transnistria.

The Kremlin has ramped up war spending by another 30%, with military outlays hitting a record 11.854 trillion rubles in the first nine months of 2025 — The Moscow Times
On average, Russia’s war is burning nearly 2 billion rubles every hour.

Russia has deployed 360,000 troops in Belarus, directly along NATO’s border, Bild reports.
UPD: Lithuanian intelligence, in coordination with the military and the National Crisis Management Centre, said reports claiming that up to 360,000 Russian troops are stationed in Belarus are inaccurate.

Ukrainian drones hit energy sites across southern Russia (www.kyivpost.com/post/66393) in a wave of overnight attacks, with Moscow claiming its air defences shot down 94 drones.

Ukraine’s steel giant Metinvest has acquired ArcelorMittal’s pipe (www.kyivpost.com/post/66428) plant in Romania – its first in the country – boosting EU‑Ukraine steel ties and supporting post‑war reconstruction.

The woman behind Ukraine’s banking cleanup: Kateryna Rozhkova (www.kyivpost.com/post/66304)
In part II of the story of Kateryna Rozhkova – former first deputy governor of Ukraine’s central bank – the rebuilding of a tarnished banking which was ready to strike back.

Inside the Berlin Peace Talks: This video breaks down the Berlin peace talks aimed at ending the Russia–Ukraine war — and what they reveal about Ukraine’s position, Western strategy, and the unresolved risks ahead.
www.kyivpost.com/videos/66374

A fresh Kremlin narrative that a Ukrainian underwater kamikaze boat (www.kyivpost.com/post/66351) attack targeting Russian missile submarine tied up in a naval port caused no damage doesn’t much hold water, evidence shows.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/12/2025 16:38

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

One person was killed and children were injured as a result of Russian shelling of Ukrainian regions. Here is what is known about the consequences of today's attacks:
🔴Kharkiv Region. Russian troops struck the village of Chervone with a drone — girls aged 12 and 17 were injured, and a private house caught fire.
🔴Donetsk Region. Two residents were wounded in Kostiantynivka due to artillery shelling. A man was killed and two more civilians were injured in Druzhkivka — the enemy hit a car with a drone there.
🔴Kherson Region. In Kherson, a Russian drone also hit a car — a man was injured. In the evening, two women sustained injuries from shelling.
🔴Zaporizhzhia. Two residents were injured in the evening due to Russian shelling.
🔴Odesa Region. During the day, Russians massively attacked the south of the region with drones — civilian and transport infrastructure was damaged.
🔴Dnipropetrovsk Region. The Nikopol district was under attack all day — an enterprise, a gas station, and houses were damaged.

💥 Overnight, Ukrainian forces attacked Russian oil and military infrastructure.
This included:
🔴The Slavyansk refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban, Krasnodar Krai. It processes approximately 5.2 million tons of crude oil and condensate per year. Explosions and fire were recorded in the target area.
🔴The Mykolaivska oil depot in the Rostov region. According to preliminary data, a storage tank and the river tanker "Captain Gibert" were damaged.
🔴A field artillery warehouse of a unit from the 101st Separate Logistics Brigade of the Russian Armed Forces in occupied Luhansk region.
Additionally, the General Staff of the AFU confirmed a drone attack on December 14th on a drilling rig at the Valery Grayfer field in the Caspian Sea. This marks the fourth Ukrainian attack on platforms in the Caspian Sea.
As a result of the damage, all 14 wells there have been shut down. Their total production volume was nearly 3.5 thousand tons of oil per day.

🇺🇸🇪🇺 The Trump administration is pressuring EU countries not to support a reparations loan to Ukraine funded by frozen Russian assets, Politico reports, citing sources.
According to the "peace plan" draft agreed upon by the White House and the Kremlin, Washington wants to use part of the frozen Russian assets to finance U.S.-led reconstruction efforts. The reparations loan would allow Ukraine to decide for itself where to direct the money.
Details of providing the reparations loan to Ukraine will be discussed tomorrow at the European Council summit.
▪️ On December 5, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. is urging the EU not to use Russian assets for a reparations loan to Ukraine. The Americans argued that these assets are needed to secure a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow, so they should not be used to continue the war.
▪️ On December 11, the WSJ reported that the U.S. had shared a plan with Europe for Ukraine's reconstruction and Russia's reintegration into the global economy. American companies plan to use approximately $200 billion of frozen Russian assets for projects in Ukraine. Among them is a massive new data center that would run on energy from the occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP.

❗️A state-level emergency has been declared in the Odesa region due to Russian attacks on the energy infrastructure.
Due to the Russian attack on December 13, which was one of the most massive in the region, a large-scale blackout occurred in Odesa and the surrounding area. Half a million homes were left without electricity, and 30,000 remain without power.
As a result, local authorities decided to negotiate with business owners to reduce the use of illumination and decorative lighting. Additionally, funds will be allocated from the reserve fund for fuel for generators in hospitals, educational institutions, and "Points of Invincibility."

A photo from Ukraine was named among the best of the year by National Geographic.
The photograph, titled "In the Embrace of Family," was taken by Anglo-Swedish photographer Anastasia Taylor-Lind. The image captures a young Ukrainian boy, Tymofiy Tsvetkov, wearing a T-shirt that reads "My dad wears the AFU uniform," while his aunt holds his hand.
Tymofiy is originally from Avdiivka; his family was forced to flee the city following the start of the full-scale invasion. Tymofiy's father is currently serving in the war.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/12/2025 16:59

On average Russia’s war is burning nearly 2,000,000,000 rubles every hour

That’s about £18,560,962 an hour 🤯 My God the good they could do with that money if they weren’t intend on genocide.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 17/12/2025 17:20

For comparison, the NHS cost about £25,800 per hour in 2024.

1dayatatime · 17/12/2025 19:41

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 17/12/2025 08:45

I have to say that when people (well, one person) comments that this thread shouldnt be rude about Trump, it's very hard not to be when faced with the sheer towering crassness of his response to Rob Reiner and his wife's murder.

And this guy has to face a snake like Putin. We really are doomed.

To clarify I really don't give a crap whether people like or dislike Trump or whether he is a loathsome individual or not.

What matters to me is the territorial integrity of Ukraine and loss of Ukrainian lives.

The reality is that the US has "walked off the job" and sees the European nations as responsible to help Ukraine in what is a European war.

Europe now has a choice to either a) take up that slack and significantly increase military aid to Ukraine, if need be by buying in arms from other countries or b) say some really nice warm words about standing by Ukraine but failing to make up the gap in military aid missing. And if Ukraine were to then lose against Russia conveniently pass all blame to Trump.

Sadly it seems that certain posters are more interested in using the suffering of Ukraine as an opportunity to bash Trump and the US and absolving European nations of any responsibility than they are about preserving Ukrainian territorial integrity by providing much needed military aid.

In short this is a European war, not a US war and European nations should be the ones responsible for supporting Ukraine. The point that Trump is a loathsome individual and that neither you or I don't like him much is irrelevant.

PerkingFaintly · 17/12/2025 20:41

American companies plan to use approximately $200 billion of frozen Russian assets for projects in Ukraine. Among them is a massive new data center that would run on energy from the occupied Zaporizhzhia NPP.

Wait, an American-owned data centre in Russian-occupied Ukraine?

Whose data? Shock

What could possibly go wrong...

PerkingFaintly · 17/12/2025 20:46

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/12/2025 16:59

On average Russia’s war is burning nearly 2,000,000,000 rubles every hour

That’s about £18,560,962 an hour 🤯 My God the good they could do with that money if they weren’t intend on genocide.

For comparison, the NHS cost about £25,800 per hour in 2024.

Thanks @DesdamonasHandkerchief & @AskingQuestionsAllTheTime , that really does put some sort of scale on it.

(Assuming figures correct.)

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 17/12/2025 20:55

I went to a GovUK website, but can't now remember which one!

LlttledrummergirI · 17/12/2025 22:31

1dayatatime · 17/12/2025 19:41

To clarify I really don't give a crap whether people like or dislike Trump or whether he is a loathsome individual or not.

What matters to me is the territorial integrity of Ukraine and loss of Ukrainian lives.

The reality is that the US has "walked off the job" and sees the European nations as responsible to help Ukraine in what is a European war.

Europe now has a choice to either a) take up that slack and significantly increase military aid to Ukraine, if need be by buying in arms from other countries or b) say some really nice warm words about standing by Ukraine but failing to make up the gap in military aid missing. And if Ukraine were to then lose against Russia conveniently pass all blame to Trump.

Sadly it seems that certain posters are more interested in using the suffering of Ukraine as an opportunity to bash Trump and the US and absolving European nations of any responsibility than they are about preserving Ukrainian territorial integrity by providing much needed military aid.

In short this is a European war, not a US war and European nations should be the ones responsible for supporting Ukraine. The point that Trump is a loathsome individual and that neither you or I don't like him much is irrelevant.

America didn't just walk away from their commitments, they have actively undermined Ukrainian efforts to remove the aggressor from their country.

Europe does need to step into the breach, you are correct in this. I hope they can do it by buying weapons from anywhere except America. They can't be trusted.

PerkingFaintly · 17/12/2025 22:50

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/12/2025 16:59

On average Russia’s war is burning nearly 2,000,000,000 rubles every hour

That’s about £18,560,962 an hour 🤯 My God the good they could do with that money if they weren’t intend on genocide.

We've talked a bit before about the extent to which the Russian economy has been converted to a war economy, and it is this spending which is propping up the Russian economy.

Two good recent articles, of which the TL;DR is that, as the first article puts it: "Russia’s wartime economy still has time – but it is increasingly time borrowed from the future."

Short article from December 17, 2025:
Russia’s war economy is not collapsing, but neither is it stable
https://theconversation.com/russias-war-economy-is-not-collapsing-but-neither-is-it-stable-271700

Long article from December 12, 2025:
The Russian economy in 2025: Between stagnation and militarization
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/the-russian-economy-in-2025-between-stagnation-and-militarization/

The Russian economy in 2025: Between stagnation and militarization 

The latest report in the Atlantic Council's Russia Tomorrow series examines the Russian wartime domestic economy.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/the-russian-economy-in-2025-between-stagnation-and-militarization/

PerkingFaintly · 17/12/2025 22:59

The second article describes in detail the tension which, as for all countries, exists between the economy of the country as a whole (spunking the nation's wealth on war) and the economy experienced locally by those directly benefitting financially from the military-industrial complex.

Of course when talking about this for the US or UK we're used to looking at that in terms of military-industrial manufacturing wages or owners' profit, and to some extent in soldiers' remitted wages, but in the Russian version, soldiers' death benefits play a very significant role in the local economy.

In Russia’s poorer regions, the combination of sign-on bonuses and killed in action (KIA) payouts has created a system of “deathonomics” in which dying on the battlefield in Ukraine can be more profitable than living to retirement age. The system is particularly appealing to men who are not economically productive—whether due to a lack of training and education or a poor local economy—and effectively acts as local stimulus. From a macroeconomic perspective, these payouts must be viewed in the context of a tight labor market and an overheated economy, in which employers in the civilian sector compete for workers with the army, a military-industrial complex that receives favorable treatment from the government, and each other. Moreover, they are indicative of a larger trend: Russia’s resources are being directed away from the civilian economy and toward the war. Every working-aged man who joins the army is one fewer factory worker or local business employee, and every government ruble spent on incentivizing his choice is one fewer ruble for social spending.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/the-russian-economy-in-2025-between-stagnation-and-militarization/

The Russian economy in 2025: Between stagnation and militarization 

The latest report in the Atlantic Council's Russia Tomorrow series examines the Russian wartime domestic economy.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/the-russian-economy-in-2025-between-stagnation-and-militarization/

PerkingFaintly · 17/12/2025 23:13

An indefinite expansion of the military-industrial complex, however, is not feasible. Moscow does not appear willing to make the sacrifices necessary to truly militarize society—for example, to direct the resources to defense that the Soviet Union did during the Cold War—which would be unavoidable during a broader economic slowdown. The more it spends on military-industrial manufacturing and infrastructure, the less the civilian economy can compete for labor and financing (i.e., the military-industrial complex is crowding out the rest of the private sector). Russia has now pushed the limits of how much the civilian economy can be neglected before it is forced into stagnation.

In the first two years of the full-scale war, the Kremlin was not forced to face the trade-offs it is facing today. Military-led economic expansion was not at odds with broader economic growth for a number of reasons that no longer hold true.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/the-russian-economy-in-2025-between-stagnation-and-militarization/

The Russian economy in 2025: Between stagnation and militarization 

The latest report in the Atlantic Council's Russia Tomorrow series examines the Russian wartime domestic economy.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/the-russian-economy-in-2025-between-stagnation-and-militarization/

notimagain · 18/12/2025 08:46

If there's any truth to this it may help explain some of the apparent intransigence...

www.theguardian.com/world/2025/dec/17/belgian-politicians-finance-bosses-targeted-russian-intelligence-seized-assets

blueshoes · 18/12/2025 11:37

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly and explicitly outlined his continued commitment to his maximalist war aims in Ukraine – the same aims for which Putin launched his full-scale invasion in 2022.
  2. Putin’s statements continue to demonstrate that he will not be satisfied with a peace agreement based on the US-proposed 28-point peace plan.
  3. Robust security guarantees for Ukraine are essential to ensure that any future agreement produces a sustainable peace, but the Kremlin has been publicly rejecting the idea of such guarantees.
  4. Belousov used Russia’s seizure of small- and medium-sized settlements to support false Russia claims that Russian forces can rapidly seize the significantly larger population centers comprising Ukraine’s Fortress Belt.
  5. Belousov’s comments demonstrate that Russian forces are optimizing themselves for positional warfare in Ukraine – not for the mechanized maneuver required to make rapid, large-scale gains.
  6. Belousov sought to conceal Russia’s military manpower problems.
  7. Putin and Belousov highlighted Russian military and nuclear strength while threatening Europe.
  8. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Pokrovsk, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
blueshoes · 18/12/2025 11:43

UK Ministry of Defence statement:

We pause today to remember Lance Corporal George Hooley as he returned home to the UK. Before his passing, Lance Corporal Hooley wrote a letter to his family and friends to be opened in the event of his death. At their request, we now share his words with you. Our thoughts remain with his family, friends and colleagues. May his words bring comfort to all who read them.

<Please let not his sacrifice be in vain. RIP Lance Corporate Hooley>

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/12/2025 13:43

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️US, Russia set to hold talks (https://kyivindependent.com/us-russia-set-to-hold-talks-in-miami-this-weekend-politico-reports/) this weekend, Politico reports.
U.S. and Russian officials are set to meet in Miami this weekend to discuss efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, Politico reported on Dec. 17, citing two unnamed sources.

⚡️Zelensky arrives (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-brussels-to-attend-crucial-eu-summit/) in Brussels to attend crucial EU summit.
European leaders are expected to decide on Dec. 18–19 whether to proceed with a "reparations loan," a plan to lend up to 210 billion euros in frozen Russian assets to Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukrainian delegation to visit US for peace talks on Dec. 19-20, Zelensky says. (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-delegation-to-visit-us-for-peace-talks-on-dec-19-20-zelensky-says/)
The discussions will concern the 20-point peace plan, security guarantees, reconstruction, and all relevant steps and documents, Zelensky told journalists.

⚡️US Senate passes (https://kyivindependent.com/us-senate-approves-defense-spending-bill-allocating-400-million-annually-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-through-2027/) defense spending bill allocating $400 million annually in military aid to Ukraine through 2027.
The U.S. Senate on Dec. 17 approved a $900 billion defense spending bill that includes $800 million in military assistance for Ukraine, following the House of Representatives’ passage of the legislation last week.

⚡️SBU says drones hit Russian equipment (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-drones-hit-russian-military-equipment-worth-hundreds-of-millions-at-belbek-airfield-in-occupied-crimea-agency-reported/)worth hundreds of millions at Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea
Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) struck a Russian military airfield in occupied Crimea, reportedly destroying air defense equipment worth hundreds of millions of dollars, the agency said in a Telegram post on Dec. 18.

⚡️Ukrainian forces counterattack near Lyman, claim Russian regiment destroyed (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-carry-out-assault-near-lyman-destroy-russian-regiment-military-says/)
Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Lyman in Donetsk Oblast, destroying what they described as an entire Russian regiment — a unit that can number roughly 2,000 troops on paper — and improving their positions, Ukraine’s Third Army Corps reported Dec. 18.

⚡️EU imposes new sanctions (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-imposes-new-sanctions-on-russias-shadow-fleet/) on Russia's 'shadow fleet'.
The European Union on Dec. 18 imposed sanctions on 41 more vessels in Russia's "shadow fleet", the Council of the EU said.
The new sanctions bring the total of sanctioned "shadow fleet" ships to 600, according to the council.

⚡️ Update: Without EU funding, Ukraine will have to reduce drone production (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-brussels-to-attend-crucial-eu-summit/), Zelensky warns.
Zelensky said that if the next EU tranche of funding does not come by spring, Ukraine's ability to produce drones and conduct long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure would be significantly constrained.

⚡️Ukraine's Deputy Speaker Korniyenko takes charge (https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-head-of-ukrainian-parliament-becomes-new-leader-of-zelenskys-party/) of Zelensky's party.
Oleksandr Korniyenko was elected to parliament together with the Servant of the People party in 2019 and soon became its leader. In 2021, he left his post after becoming the parliament's deputy speaker. Since then, the party was led by lawmaker Olena Shuliak.

⚡️ Russian border guards briefly crossed (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-border-guards-briefly-crossed-into-estonia-tallinn-says/) into Estonia, Tallinn says.
Igor Taro, the interior minister of the Baltic nation, said it remains unclear whether the incident was intentional but emphasized that there is no threat to Estonia's security.

⚡️Drone production, air defense sustainment — Germany backs Ukraine with $1.4 billion in defense agreements (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-secures-1-4-billion-defense-agreements-with-germany/).
Kyiv has signed several new defense agreements with Berlin totaling 1.2 billion euros ($1.4 billion), Defense Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on Dec. 17, a day after the Ramstein-format meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG).

‘Every new strike only unites us’ — Odesa endures 5-day blackout after Russian strikes (https://kyivindependent.com/you-survive-this-war-with-people-like-these-how-odesa-endures-russias-blackouts/)
Rolling into Odesa’s downtown, the constant hum of hundreds of generators drowns the ability to converse.

⚡️Ukrainian drones reportedly strike (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-reportedly-strike-oil-tanker-in-russias-rostov-on-don-officials-claim/) oil tanker in Russia's Rostov-on-Don, local officials claim.

⚡️Putin calls European leaders 'piglets,' (https://kyivindependent.com/in-further-disregard-for-peace-putin-calls-european-leaders-little-pigs/) declares war goals will be met 'unconditionally

⚡️Update: Number of injured in Zaporizhzhia after Russian KAB bomb attack rises (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-bombs-hit-residential-building-injure-at-least-26-in-zaporizhzhia-as-russia-rejects-christmas-truce/) to 32.
The attack occurred around noon, hitting two multistory residential buildings, infrastructure and educational facilities, Regional Governor Ivan Fedorov said.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 4h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — DEC 18, 2025
■ Combat activity dropped sharply; casualties and equipment losses now below the 7-day average
■ Visually confirmed batch: 18 🇷🇺 : 63 🇺🇦 — 2025 ratio at 1.1×, 90-day ratio at 0.9×
■ Overnight attacks: double-digit, all drones; decent interception rate, but twenty locations hit (including by debris)
■ 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes well above average; six 🇺🇦 strikes reported

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/12/2025 13:50

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 Ursula von der Leyen called for an urgent decision on financing Ukraine for 2026–2027.
The President of the European Commission said the coming days will be decisive for decisions on further support for Ukraine.
According to her, Ukraine’s needs for 2026–2027 amount to around €137 billion, with the EU expected to cover two-thirds of this sum.
Von der Leyen stressed that support for Ukraine is a core element of European defense and urged an urgent decision on the financing mechanism — from the use of frozen Russian assets to joint borrowing.
A decision is expected at the European Council summit on December 18.

President Zelenskyy said in Brussels that most EU leaders support a reparations loan using Russian assets.
According to him, there is currently a risk of a €45–50 billion deficit next year.
“The deficit could be even larger. We do not yet know exactly how events will unfold next year. We are doing everything possible to end the war as soon as possible,” the president added.

🇱🇻 Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže announced that Latvia is contributing to the Ukraine Energy Support Fund.
According to Braže, Latvia is allocating a total of €200,000 to support Ukraine’s energy system after Russian attacks.

🇩🇪🇺🇦 For the first time, Ukraine’s defense industry will produce 200 Bohdan self-propelled guns on the new Mercedes-Benz Zetros chassis as part of a joint project with Germany, the Ministry of Defense reported.

Orbán said he had sent a letter to Putin regarding the EU’s decision to use frozen Russian assets.
The Hungarian prime minister said he received a response stating that “Hungary’s position on this issue will be taken into account.”
Orbán stressed that Budapest opposes the use of these funds, calling such a step an escalation. He also criticized the EU’s decision to freeze the assets indefinitely.
“The seizure of hundreds of billions from another state has never gone unanswered in history. This is a declaration of war,” he said.

For the first time since the start of the invasion, Russia’s Defense Ministry has disclosed the cost of the war against Ukraine.
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov said that this year Russia will spend 5.1% of its GDP on the war.
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, 13.5 trillion rubles ($167 billion) have been allocated for “National Defense,” with about 82% directed to the war. This amounts to roughly 11.1 trillion rubles ($137 billion) out of a projected GDP of 217.3 trillion rubles.

Russian chess player Vladislav Fedoseyev has been stripped of his titles for criticizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Fedoseyev, who has represented Slovenia since 2023, was stripped of his Russian titles of Grandmaster and Master of Sports. The relevant orders were published on the website of the Ministry of Sports of the aggressor country. [...]After the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Fedoseyev refused to play for Russia. [...]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 59
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/12/2025 13:54

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Zelensky said Ukraine currently lacks missiles for certain air defence systems. He also warned that without new EU funding, drone production could fall sharply by spring, giving Russia an advantage on the battlefield.

Aeromotors, a Ukrainian drone motor maker, has raised $550,000 (www.kyivpost.com/post/66493) from Swedish investment firm Front Ventures.

Ukraine’s allies just agreed to donate over $45 billion (www.kyivpost.com/post/66517) worth of new arms and military material to Kyiv, at the 32nd Ramstein group meeting. But, under Trump’s control, the US contributed a goose egg.

“The clock is ticking,” the UK has warned Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich, urging him to release £2.5 billion for Ukraine. (www.kyivpost.com/post/66451)
If he fails to honour his pledge to donate the proceeds from the sale of Chelsea FC to victims of Russia’s war, the UK government says it will step in.

Ukrainian drones struck Russia’s Belbek airfield overnight, destroying military equipment worth hundreds of millions of dollars, Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said.
Among the targets hit were:
▪️Two Nebo-SVU long-range radar systems, each valued at approximately $60–100 million;
▪️A 92N6 radar, part of the S-400 Triumph air defence system, estimated at $30 million for the domestic market and up to $60 million for export;
▪️A Pantsir-S2 air defence system, worth about $12 million domestically and up to $19 million for export;
▪️A MiG-31 fighter jet with a full combat load, estimated at $30–50 million depending on configuration and armament.

Russia is no longer just threatening NATO. It is running a live hybrid war on Europe’s doorstep.
In this interview, former Lithuanian intelligence chief Darius Jurgelevičius joins Kyiv Post’s Jason Jay Smart to explain why the so-called “Kaliningrad Fortress” works as a launchpad for pressure.
www.kyivpost.com/videos/66440

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 18/12/2025 14:00

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇸The administration of US President Donald Trump has temporarily suspended sanctions against a number of Russian banks, according to the US Treasury website.
The suspension of restrictions applies to Gazprombank, Sberbank, Alfa-Bank, Sovcombank, Otkritie Bank, Rosbank, Zenit Bank, Bank Saint Petersburg, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, and others.
The license authorizes transactions with these banks until June 18, 2026 This applies to transactions for civil nuclear energy projects that were initiated before November 21, 2024.
The exemption also covers companies in which these banks own a stake of 50% or more. This decision was made because sanctions on banks involved in nuclear power plant settlements and fuel supplies could reportedly create risks for the energy sector.
▪️ This is not the first time the US has rolled back sanctions imposed on Russia. For instance, sanctions against the Russian oil giant Lukoil were supposed to take effect on November 23, but the restrictions were postponed until December 13.

🇬🇪 Despite the strained relations between Kyiv and Tbilisi, Georgia unexpectedly signed an international agreement establishing a mechanism to distribute reparations, obtained from Russian funds, among Ukrainian citizens and businesses affected by Russian aggression.
It is noted that even the fact that Georgia's Foreign Minister Maka Bochorishvili personally attended the diplomatic conference in The Hague dedicated to signing the convention stood out, as most other countries were represented primarily by ambassadors.
Bochorishvili delivered a "fiery speech in support of the Ukrainian people," without a single mention of the tense relations between Kyiv and Tbilisi.
Notably, Georgia became the only state in the region to join the document. Azerbaijan and Armenia ignored the meeting in The Hague altogether; Turkey sent an embassy employee to observe but refused to sign anything.

🇵🇱Poland will begin producing anti-personnel mines for the first time since the Cold War and plans to deploy them along its borders with Belarus and the Russian Kaliningrad region.
Deputy Defense Minister Paweł Zalewski informed Reuters of the decision.
Production is expected to start in 2026, after Poland formally withdraws from the Ottawa Convention, which prohibits such munitions.
The number of casualties from the Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia has increased to 30, including 5 children

Erdoğan proposed to Putin to return the S-400s for the sake of restoring relations with the US — Bloomberg
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has proposed that Russia take back the S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems purchased by Ankara in 2017. According to the agency, Erdoğan raised this issue during a meeting with Vladimir Putin in Turkmenistan last week. Meanwhile, the Kremlin has denied that such a request was made during the leaders' meeting.
Bloomberg sources note that moving away from the Russian S-400s could significantly improve Turkey's relations with the US and pave the way for lifting American sanctions against the Turkish defense industry, as well as Ankara's return to the F-35 fighter jet program.
Turkey also expects compensation for the funds spent on the purchase of the Russian systems. According to sources, Ankara is considering the possibility of offsetting these costs against oil and gas imports from Russia, although such a mechanism would require separate negotiations.

🇩🇪🇺🇦Details for Patriot and joint production of 200 "Bohdana" units: Ukraine and Germany signed defense agreements worth €1.2 billion. Here is what they entail:
🔴The countries agreed on the largest artillery project to produce 200 "Bohdana" self-propelled howitzers on a new Zetros chassis, with a total value of €750 million.
🔴Germany will provide a long-term supply of spare parts for Patriot systems. This will allow for faster repairs, modernization, and restoration of the systems.
🔴Germany will purchase €200 million worth of Ukrainian drones and jointly produce "Linza" UAVs with Ukraine. The countries also signed contracts for the supply of the latest Electronic Warfare (EW) systems.

PerkingFaintly · 18/12/2025 14:24

⚡️US Senate passes (https://kyivindependent.com/us-senate-approves-defense-spending-bill-allocating-400-million-annually-in-military-aid-to-ukraine-through-2027/) defense spending bill allocating $400 million annually in military aid to Ukraine through 2027.
The U.S. Senate on Dec. 17 approved a $900 billion defense spending bill that includes $800 million in military assistance for Ukraine, following the House of Representatives’ passage of the legislation last week.

Thank you, USA. Everything appreciated.

Also useful to see the proportion: $800 million is 0.09% of that defence spending bill.

I know that's absolutely not the whole of the US's military spending in Europe, but it is good to be reminded that even the whole of US military spending in Europe is FAR from US overseas military spending in total.

(I only say this because I've noticed sometimes folk seem to elide total overseas spending by the US military with its spending in Europe. But they're very different things.)

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