Ukraine Invasion: Part 59

[MagicFox]

Well, it’s thread 59.

Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Mark Chadbourne

Friedrich Merz: “I just discussed the plan for peace for Ukraine with POTUS in a good and confidential phone call. We have agreed on the next steps at the advisors’ level. I will now brief the European partners.”

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1991890783717167247 President Zelensky addressing the Ukrainian nation, subtitled in English

I can't bear this.

Ukraine, betrayed by the signatories to the Budapest memorandum. The end of NATO is honestly in sight, I believe.

All the death, all the ruin.

Ukraine has kept the majority of its land free but the deep corruption of Russia has won, on world-wide terms.

Hang in there Ducks, it’s been a horrendous seesaw of a year since Trump, but European allies have rallied round Zelenskyy over and over again and hopefully there’s a new plan in chain.

Although Trump, Vance, Rubio and Witfeckoff are acting despicably.

which was entirely to be expected, I reckon. Because they are despicable.

As much as Trump's proposal is effectively a surrender document, the harsh reality is that we all saw it coming.

I have to agree though with @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar, the only alternative right now is for Ukraine to reject the offer and seek European military aid and support.

I must admit that I am increasingly frustrated by the European sentiment of :
"oh it's a terrible deal for Ukraine and Trump is a despicable man",
yes I agree but what exactly are European nations going to do instead
"ah well we can't go it alone, we don't have the available hardware, its complicated etc etc"

At least with Trump he is transparently throwing Ukraine under a bus, but the Europeans are no different in the outcome for Ukraine- it's just that they wrap it up in nice words, excuses and conveniently blame Trump for it all.

Utterly disgraceful, how to accept the unacceptable.

And the proposed Super China Embassy in London blows my mind. We are living in chaos.

Is it too conspiratorial to suggest the Russian intelligence services have something on Trump? The disclosure of the Epstein files may be a stick to beat the democrats with but what if Russia had specific knowledge about Trump?

A lot of people have been thinking that for a while

Mind you, it's also clear that he's extraordinarily easily influenced by whatever the last thing whispered into his ear/broadcast on Fox. He was convinced that Portland was on fire, because Fox told him so and he was publically surprised when shown the opposite. He called Mandami a "communist" because his advisors (and Fox) told hims so, but having met him he's actually rather smitten. So one phone call from the right person could flip this.

I don’t think so any more. It’s hard to conclude anything other, but also saw some news coverage that Trump is after yet more land for minerals and so this plan has been hatched between Russia and the US. (Not sure on the veracity of that.)

And clearly he’s enabled the US to profit from Europe and Canada buying arms for Ukraine for most of the last year.

It feels so grubby and immoral, effectively blackmailing a country who’ve endured hell so valiantly.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-20-2025/

Key Takeaways

1. All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation to Russia’s original war demands.
2. There are no provisions in the reported peace plan in which Russia makes any concessions, and ISW continues to assess that accepting Russian demands would set conditions for renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine.
3. Russian officials continue to react to the reported 28-point peace plan by reiterating their commitment to Russia’s original war aims and blaming Ukraine for Russia’s own unwillingness to compromise.
4. The Kremlin continues to use a combination of economic incentives and nuclear saber-rattling to extract concessions from the United States to normalize US-Russian relations without making reciprocal concessions to end the war.
5. Russian forces operating in the Hulyaipole direction continue to employ their new offensive template that relies on a combination of a prolonged battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign, tactical interdiction efforts, infiltration missions, and mass small group assaults to advance.
6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole.

I have long thought Ukraine will need to give up land but some of the other stuff is madness, halve their army, no NATO, limited weapon supplies..... its a recipe for another "invasion" in a year or two, any peace guarantees are worthless.

Interestingly, says they can join the EU? ha ha so Russia gets influence in Ukraine and undermines the EU, aka Hungary.

Talk now is the deadline can be extended, talk is good but a ceasefire has to come first.

Europe is at a crossroads now and NATO is dead.

Tax rises and re arming will happen, just a matter of when Europe wakes up.

In this mornings Ukrainecast Victoria Derbyshire makes she point that Rubio’s comments on the plan via twitter suggest scepticism about the plan.

the cutting out of Ukraine and Europe is gross. How can Europe make sure that it is at the table to support Ukraine in peace negotiations? What about the peace keeping force / military presence in Ukraine post war?

Mark Galeotti’s thoughts worth reading:

I'm sure this will be an unpopular opinion, but while the text of the US plan for Ukraine is poorly drafted and incomplete, it is not a simple call for Ukrainian capitulation. As a starting point for something that could stop the killing, it has some promise. A few thoughts 1/
By sticking to acknowledging Russia’s de facto control of the occupied territories, it sidesteps the need for a Ukrainian constitutional referendum or even EU formal acceptance. This doesn’t preclude some peaceful future reunification, Germany-style 2/
Capping the Ukrainian army to 600,000 isn’t as draconian as I imagine the Russians wanted. When I talked to some British MOD analysts a couple of months back, they expressed doubts Kyiv could afford more than 500,000 long-term 3/
That’s also just the standing army – to which there would presumably be a substantial mobilisation reserve in case of war. As many as Ukraine might like? Probably not – but the country would be by no means defenceless 4/
There continue to be claims that Ukraine would be denied long-range weapons. I’m not seeing that (am I just reading incomplete versions of the text), just a commitment to not actually striking Moscow or St P “without cause” 5/
Withdrawal from the rest of Donetsk Region continues to be a tough one; making this a DMZ may make it easier to swallow, as it addresses the issue of the region being used as a sprigboard for future attacks. 6/
Sanctions relief is staged, likely not complete, and Moscow must allow $100B of its frozen funds to go to Ukraine reconstruction. That’s better than I imagined, even though the form of reconstruction looks a little exploitative/colonial (to US gain). 7/
I’m certainly not saying this is a good plan. There are some weird anomalies (START-1?) and whole legions of devils in the details, from monitoring to security guarantees. But arguably it’s the closest to the basis for talks that we could have expected. 8/end

I watched President Zelenskyy’s speech last night. 😢I am feeling all the feelings from rage, to sadness, to disappointment to despair but I am also feeling hopeful somehow. I don’t think Trump will get his way with this shambles of a “peace deal”.

Of all the days I could do with some good news, yesterday I had some. An idea I have been working on for the past 9 months has finally been approved. I can’t share the full details yet but it will be a charity fundraiser product (through my work) which will raise funds for children in Ukraine, specifically psychological support. I initially drafted the proposal out of sheer rage and frustration at trump etc back in February, and I didn’t dare to hope at that time that it would be considered let alone approved. After months of meetings, delays, tweaks, more delays it has finally been approved by our CEO and hopefully it’ll be launched in the UK and in Ukraine early next year. And hopefully in other countries too later on. 🌻🙏

@Mb76 this fundraiser sounds wonderful. From the heart I hope it flies high. One of the worst things in all this is the severe psychological damage from this utterly horrible invasion. Something to ameliorate that can only be celebrated.

Someone on SM said it should be called the 'Surrender Plan' instead of 'Peace'

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-21-2025/

Key Takeaways

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to indicate that his demands have not fundamentally changed since the August 2025 Alaska summit.
2. Reported Russian government insiders also indicated that the Kremlin does not support the proposed 28-point peace plan.
3. Russian officials are setting informational conditions to reject the 28-point peace plan, which acquiesces to many — but not all — of Russia’s persistent war demands.
4. The Kremlin has thus far failed to set conditions for the Russian people to accept anything less than a full Russian victory in Ukraine.
5. The Kremlin has similarly rejected US-proposed ceasefires and negotiations in recent months, while Ukraine has consistently shown a willingness to engage and compromise.
6. The proposed peace plan would not bring Russia and Ukraine closer to a just and lasting peace but would set conditions for renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine in the future.
7. Putin and Russian military commanders continue to promote the false narrative that a Russian victory is inevitable in order to push Ukraine and the West into acquiescing to Russian demands.
8. Russian milbloggers and Ukrainian officials both refuted many of the Russian commanders’ claimed successes.
9. Russia’s battlefield successes are not inevitable, and the Kremlin is intensifying efforts to aggrandize recent Russian military activity to advocate that Ukraine surrender terrain in Donetsk Oblast that Russian forces are unlikely to actually seize.
10. Ukrainian forces continue to counterattack in the Pokrovsk direction, where the situation remains serious and dynamic.
11. Russian military command appears to be redeploying relatively elite forces to the Pokrovsk direction, likely in response to the slowed rate of Russian advances.
12. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.

This quote from the Estonian Foreign Minister sums it up:

"we have been told repeatedly and unambiguously [by Trump]that Ukraine's security and therefore Europe's security will be Europe's responsibility. And now it is. Entirely."

What frustrates me is that many posters seem to be more focused on bashing Trump (which let's be honest isn't difficult) rather than supporting what can be done to back Ukraine in these critical times. And that means supporting greater spending on defence and supplying more military aid to Ukraine.

Instead we have Germany, Spain,Italy and NL all spending below 2% on defence, all at the same time as posters are berating the US for not doing enough to help Ukraine.

@Mb76 that is wonderful news about your securing approval for the fundraiser to support children in Ukraine. Your kind heart and hard work paid off. Children are the hope for Ukraine's future. Do keep us posted of its launch.

@1dayatatime I agree. It would be foolish to rely on Trump. UK and Europe need to up their defense spending more urgently and substantially. Wasted so much time and still not a given. Truly head in hands.

At the UK autumn budget statement on Wednesday, we can expect to be hammered from all sides with the smorgasbord of tax increases. The Labour government should bloody apply at least some of that to defence.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-latest-trumps-peace-plan-revealed-in-full-but-zelenskyy-says-his-team-must-check-its-genuine-12541713?postid=10573442#liveblog-body

European leaders have said the US-Russian peace plan needs "additional work".

A joint statement expressed concern about proposed limitations on the Ukrainian army, leaving it vulnerable to attack.

They insisted Ukraine's borders must not be altered.
Elements of the plan relating to the EU and NATO require their consent, it added.
They will coordinate closely with Ukraine and the US in the coming days.

Unfortunately for the Government to spend more on defence it means it will have to spend less on something else whether that be health or welfare. Increasing taxes will simply slow the economy further meaning that there will have to be bigger tax rises in a year's time and so on.

And the reality is that whilst the majority of British voters and for that voters in all European countries, feel that more should be done for Ukraine (especially if the Americans pay for it) they are absolutely not willing to see cuts in healthcare or welfare to pay for it.

Just in: joint statement on Ukraine by 🇪🇺🇩🇪🇫🇷🇬🇧🇮🇹🇪🇸🇫🇮🇳🇱🇮🇪🇳🇴🇨🇦🇯🇵

The 28-point plan has "important elements" for a just and lasting peace but "will require additional work."

"We are concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine's armed forces, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack."

https://bsky.app/profile/jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social/post/3m67wlazrb22t