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Firefly1987 · 22/09/2025 19:03

Typicalwave · 22/09/2025 09:07

Are you accusing the midwife of lying then? Is she in on it?

Once again the mothers timeline is the one that doesn’t match

No obviously not, I'm saying someone on twitter created this "timeline" and said "trust me bro" about the times being different. And everyone is parroting everything from him. Where is actual proof that the timelines don't match to the mothers? And I don't mean some chart the same guy on twitter made up knowing no one is going to check. It's still just a theory at this point and you're treating it as undisputed fact, based on one "source" like he cracked the case and everyone who doesn't immediately lap it up is stupid.

Do you not think people at the trial might just have realised the timelines don't match up if that was the case?

Typicalwave · 22/09/2025 19:11

Firefly1987 · 22/09/2025 19:03

No obviously not, I'm saying someone on twitter created this "timeline" and said "trust me bro" about the times being different. And everyone is parroting everything from him. Where is actual proof that the timelines don't match to the mothers? And I don't mean some chart the same guy on twitter made up knowing no one is going to check. It's still just a theory at this point and you're treating it as undisputed fact, based on one "source" like he cracked the case and everyone who doesn't immediately lap it up is stupid.

Do you not think people at the trial might just have realised the timelines don't match up if that was the case?

Actually I did check. I checked the reporting and the statements….and so did Jabe, as he provides receipts. Surely you've looked for yourself? And then you’d be able to see it’s drawing upon Chester Standard reporting, and uploaded to Thirlwall. It’s not pulled out of a hat. I appreciate that you seem to feel that’s how facts work, but they don’t. And the table is backed up with evidence. Feel free to check yourself.

OP posts:
H202too · 22/09/2025 19:22

Firefly1987 · 22/09/2025 19:03

No obviously not, I'm saying someone on twitter created this "timeline" and said "trust me bro" about the times being different. And everyone is parroting everything from him. Where is actual proof that the timelines don't match to the mothers? And I don't mean some chart the same guy on twitter made up knowing no one is going to check. It's still just a theory at this point and you're treating it as undisputed fact, based on one "source" like he cracked the case and everyone who doesn't immediately lap it up is stupid.

Do you not think people at the trial might just have realised the timelines don't match up if that was the case?

I agree. It doesn't make sense.

Typicalwave · 22/09/2025 19:27

H202too · 22/09/2025 19:22

I agree. It doesn't make sense.

What doesn't make sense?

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Typicalwave · 22/09/2025 19:47

Another person (and there have been many) who has also noticed the mitgers timeline was consistently out by an hour when compared to withess statements and records of Letby, Harkness, Woods and Midwife https://x.com/timmjoslin/status/1837131048636854773?s=46

Again drawing upon Chester standard court reporting.

Tim Joslin 🇺🇦 (@TimMJoslin) on X

On the evening (Aug 3rd 2015) when #LucyLetby is accused of murdering Baby E I now believe there are 3 prosecution timing assertions an hour earlier than the hospital records show. This suggests a systematic problem, perhaps misinterpretation of the...

https://x.com/timmjoslin/status/1837131048636854773?s=46

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H202too · 22/09/2025 20:23

I know you all hate tattle but the links to the wiki on x. It seems really good. Finally it worked. I think I understand more of what you are saying now. If the Mother os correct and the phone is. It's very confusing or hospital notes are wrong.

Surely it would be easy to check this phone thing out and that could be grounds for some evidence for ccrc.

Typicalwave · 22/09/2025 20:27

H202too · 22/09/2025 20:23

I know you all hate tattle but the links to the wiki on x. It seems really good. Finally it worked. I think I understand more of what you are saying now. If the Mother os correct and the phone is. It's very confusing or hospital notes are wrong.

Surely it would be easy to check this phone thing out and that could be grounds for some evidence for ccrc.

It’s far far more likely that it’s the mitgers records that are wrong. Four other sets of notes/statements from hospital staff all line up.

Thanks for the rec but I have all the links direct to Thirwall and Chester standard reporting so I don’t have to hold my nose and join Tattle 😆

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H202too · 22/09/2025 20:37

Typicalwave · 22/09/2025 20:27

It’s far far more likely that it’s the mitgers records that are wrong. Four other sets of notes/statements from hospital staff all line up.

Thanks for the rec but I have all the links direct to Thirwall and Chester standard reporting so I don’t have to hold my nose and join Tattle 😆

Haha I just noticed lot of the twitter users linked had linked to tattle.

Typicalwave · 22/09/2025 20:40

H202too · 22/09/2025 20:37

Haha I just noticed lot of the twitter users linked had linked to tattle.

Some do. Jabe links straight to Chester standard and Thirlwall in his initial post on this.

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Firefly1987 · 22/09/2025 23:42

@Typicalwave you don't happen to have the links do you?

Typicalwave · 23/09/2025 08:03

Firefly1987 · 22/09/2025 23:42

@Typicalwave you don't happen to have the links do you?

Oftenaddled posted the archive of yhd one with a lot of tattle links.

I don’t have the time to go back and forth with each individual link from the original post I used. I’ve ousted tgat link to Jabe on X for uou at least twice. Go and have a look. Or join X. Or used Oftenaddled archive link further down.

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Oftenaddled · 23/09/2025 09:15

Tattle wiki on the case is just a collection of press summaries, perfectly accurate as to what the press reported, as far as I can tell.

It's now accessible to Tattle members only, but you have a cleaned up and expanded version of it at https://lucyletbyinnocence.com/

Lucy Letby Innocence

This website brings you comprehensive information about trial of Nurse Lucy Letby and the emerging evidence that she is innocent of all charges against her.

https://lucyletbyinnocence.com

Typicalwave · 23/09/2025 10:20

Firefly1987 · 21/09/2025 22:40

Did you watch the video?

Yes. I did.

The mother’s phone records were not phone bills which are presented in time that’s local to the seevice user. They were generated from mim calling up the phone provider several years later, most phone companies operate in UTC, so in all likelihood the print off was the raw data rather than the adjusted times provided in actial phone bills.

Cheshire police bever verified with the phone provider.

At least four accounts all line up, mother’s is an hour early - either we completely take leave of our senses and believe that mum saw blood at 9pm and was told to go back to the ward and wait, made the call to her husband at 10:52pm where husband also says this was a joint call with midwife also speaking to him telling him he needs to get to the hospital because she had looked into her crystal ball and knew the NNU was going to call at 11:30pm (midwife notes and agreed witness statement) telling midwife to tell mum that she needed to come down in 30 minutes, and then mum and midwife sit and wait for the predicted 11:30pm call from the NNU, and then mim and midwife (both agreed in their timing) head down to the NNU at approx midnight

or
We accept that the only time that can possibly be wrong is mothers, derived from requested call times from phone company that weren’t derived from a phone bill, because we all know that it’s not possible for the midwife to have predicted a call from the NNU would happen at 11:30pm so she goes into the mother approx 10:45ish PN to tell mum so that she and mim both end up speaking to dad at 10:52pm on the same phone (fathers statement - midwife spoke to him on the mums phone) to tell him that at 11:30pm the NNU will call and say theres a problem and parents need to attend.

The most likely explanation for this is not that anyone is lying, but that mother’s phone records are incorrect.

OP posts:
Typicalwave · 23/09/2025 10:27

Oftenaddled · 23/09/2025 09:15

Tattle wiki on the case is just a collection of press summaries, perfectly accurate as to what the press reported, as far as I can tell.

It's now accessible to Tattle members only, but you have a cleaned up and expanded version of it at https://lucyletbyinnocence.com/

Letby innocence is nice and easy to use, too.

OP posts:
DoubledTrouble · 23/09/2025 18:56

MistressoftheDarkSide · 23/09/2025 18:28

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/sep/23/uk-nurse-jailed-killing-four-patients-denied-chance-to-appeal-colin-campbell

The cynic in me is wondering if the similarities with Lucy Letbys case have influenced anything. One would hope I'm wrong, but honestly these days I have zero trust in the justice system.

I think there are some really serious systemic issues with how these medical/nursing cases are being investigated and prosecuted which are leading to miscarriages of justice.

And the CoA really don't want to face up to it.

Oftenaddled · 23/09/2025 20:17

DoubledTrouble · 23/09/2025 18:56

I think there are some really serious systemic issues with how these medical/nursing cases are being investigated and prosecuted which are leading to miscarriages of justice.

And the CoA really don't want to face up to it.

I hope the case of Lucy Letby may open the way to a more critical analysis of these retrospective circumstancial cases.

Firefly1987 · 23/09/2025 22:03

Just rewatched the Panorama documentary-first time since they had to change the tube dislodgement stats because people were outraged about it. They found that in every hundred ventilated shifts that LL WASN'T involved in, tubes came out unexpectedly in less than one. During her 11 ventilated shifts tubes came out four times. People said originally that it wasn't a big enough sample, well now it is. It's not just 4/11 or less than 1% stats anymore, we can plainly see that for every 100 shifts this was a very rare event for everyone else. Now maybe you could make the case that if one dislodged whilst she was on she was just unlucky, but four times stretches all credibility that these were not deliberate.

I'll bet the people who think she's innocent regret demanding the stats be looked into now! You can't make her look innocent no matter how many times you demand the stats be looked at again so all there is is denial. I'm sure there will be excuses like "that doesn't prove anything/the stats are all wrong/it's totally plausible for something expected to happen 4 out of 400 times to happen in 4/11 of her shifts. Or maybe instead it'll be "just because she dislodged tubes doesn't make her a murderer".

It also reminded me of what an absolute shambles the expert panel were. They fell apart just being questioned by Moritz and Coffey! Those of them that actually bothered to be interviewed. I'd pay good money to see them all be cross examined. They were already squirming in their seats on Panorama. As for the one that said "if he was the doctor who killed a baby he wouldn't be able to sleep at night"?! No words! But he was too much of a coward to be interviewed about that. The whole thing's been turned into a sordid drama. You can bet not one of them will be seen for dust if she faces more charges and another trial.

kkloo · 23/09/2025 22:13

During her 11 ventilated shifts tubes came out four times. People said originally that it wasn't a big enough sample, well now it is. It's not just 4/11 or less than 1% stats anymore, we can plainly see that for every 100 shifts this was a very rare event for everyone else

The sample size doesn't suddenly become big enough just because you compare it to another statistic @Firefly1987

I'll bet the people who think she's innocent regret demanding the stats be looked into now!

I really don't think they do regret it.........

I'm sure there will be excuses like "that doesn't prove anything

Because it quite clearly doesn't.

Typicalwave · 23/09/2025 22:23

Firefly1987 · 23/09/2025 22:03

Just rewatched the Panorama documentary-first time since they had to change the tube dislodgement stats because people were outraged about it. They found that in every hundred ventilated shifts that LL WASN'T involved in, tubes came out unexpectedly in less than one. During her 11 ventilated shifts tubes came out four times. People said originally that it wasn't a big enough sample, well now it is. It's not just 4/11 or less than 1% stats anymore, we can plainly see that for every 100 shifts this was a very rare event for everyone else. Now maybe you could make the case that if one dislodged whilst she was on she was just unlucky, but four times stretches all credibility that these were not deliberate.

I'll bet the people who think she's innocent regret demanding the stats be looked into now! You can't make her look innocent no matter how many times you demand the stats be looked at again so all there is is denial. I'm sure there will be excuses like "that doesn't prove anything/the stats are all wrong/it's totally plausible for something expected to happen 4 out of 400 times to happen in 4/11 of her shifts. Or maybe instead it'll be "just because she dislodged tubes doesn't make her a murderer".

It also reminded me of what an absolute shambles the expert panel were. They fell apart just being questioned by Moritz and Coffey! Those of them that actually bothered to be interviewed. I'd pay good money to see them all be cross examined. They were already squirming in their seats on Panorama. As for the one that said "if he was the doctor who killed a baby he wouldn't be able to sleep at night"?! No words! But he was too much of a coward to be interviewed about that. The whole thing's been turned into a sordid drama. You can bet not one of them will be seen for dust if she faces more charges and another trial.

You’ve just pointed out that letbys sample size is even smaller (11 shifts rather than the original 50) than the original sample size that was reported….making it even more meaningless.

But seeing as you think a sample size of 100 is statistically significant - let’s take a look at that…

I asked AI if a sample size of 100 with and incident occurrence of around 1% in that sample was a large enough sample to accurately predict the statistical occurrence - I’m no statistician.

  • If you observe 1 event in 100 shifts (Ì‚p = 0.01), the 95% confidence interval for the true rate is wide. Using a standard Wilson interval it’s about 0.18% to 5.45%. That means the true rate could plausibly be several times larger than 1%.
  • (calculation based on x=1, n=100).
  • The standard (approximate) standard error = √[p(1−p)/n] ≈ 0.01, so the 95% normal CI ≈ 1% ± 1.96×1% ≈ (0%, 3%) — again showing a large relative uncertainty when the rate is so low.
  • If you want a margin of error of ±1 percentage point around a 1% rate you need ≈ 381 shifts; for ±0.5% you need ≈ 1,522 shifts.
  • (These come from the usual sample-size formula n ≈ p(1−p)(z/ME)².)
OP posts:
Oftenaddled · 23/09/2025 22:25

Four extubations over eleven shifts is meaningless.

The 1 in 100 rate for other shifts has not obviously been derived from cases as Liverpool at that time either. But even if it were, it wouldn't make the four out of element meaningful.

The definition of unplanned extubation is elastic and hasn't been established for these cases.

The likelihood of a baby self-extubating depends on many factors, including their age and the intubator's skill.

It's not clear from the language used by BBC whether Lucy Letby was caring for the children in question.

People who would like that statistic looked into would still very much like that statistic looked into. They've corrected their most obvious error but no more.

BBC know that too. They've silently removed Jonathan Coffey's remark afterwards that this looks "damning" for Lucy Letby. Because they know the corrected facts can't support that comment.

Oftenaddled · 23/09/2025 22:26

Firefly1987 · 23/09/2025 22:03

Just rewatched the Panorama documentary-first time since they had to change the tube dislodgement stats because people were outraged about it. They found that in every hundred ventilated shifts that LL WASN'T involved in, tubes came out unexpectedly in less than one. During her 11 ventilated shifts tubes came out four times. People said originally that it wasn't a big enough sample, well now it is. It's not just 4/11 or less than 1% stats anymore, we can plainly see that for every 100 shifts this was a very rare event for everyone else. Now maybe you could make the case that if one dislodged whilst she was on she was just unlucky, but four times stretches all credibility that these were not deliberate.

I'll bet the people who think she's innocent regret demanding the stats be looked into now! You can't make her look innocent no matter how many times you demand the stats be looked at again so all there is is denial. I'm sure there will be excuses like "that doesn't prove anything/the stats are all wrong/it's totally plausible for something expected to happen 4 out of 400 times to happen in 4/11 of her shifts. Or maybe instead it'll be "just because she dislodged tubes doesn't make her a murderer".

It also reminded me of what an absolute shambles the expert panel were. They fell apart just being questioned by Moritz and Coffey! Those of them that actually bothered to be interviewed. I'd pay good money to see them all be cross examined. They were already squirming in their seats on Panorama. As for the one that said "if he was the doctor who killed a baby he wouldn't be able to sleep at night"?! No words! But he was too much of a coward to be interviewed about that. The whole thing's been turned into a sordid drama. You can bet not one of them will be seen for dust if she faces more charges and another trial.

I didn't see any squirming. I too look forward to seeing competent experts examine and cross-examined on this case. The sooner, the better.

Typicalwave · 23/09/2025 22:34

Oftenaddled · 23/09/2025 22:26

I didn't see any squirming. I too look forward to seeing competent experts examine and cross-examined on this case. The sooner, the better.

Odd, neither did I. I saw experts carefully trying to explain to an audience who don’t have their backgrounds knowledge and expertise - and a programme edited in a way Coffee and Moritz wanted.

OP posts:
Typicalwave · 23/09/2025 22:35

Oftenaddled · 23/09/2025 22:25

Four extubations over eleven shifts is meaningless.

The 1 in 100 rate for other shifts has not obviously been derived from cases as Liverpool at that time either. But even if it were, it wouldn't make the four out of element meaningful.

The definition of unplanned extubation is elastic and hasn't been established for these cases.

The likelihood of a baby self-extubating depends on many factors, including their age and the intubator's skill.

It's not clear from the language used by BBC whether Lucy Letby was caring for the children in question.

People who would like that statistic looked into would still very much like that statistic looked into. They've corrected their most obvious error but no more.

BBC know that too. They've silently removed Jonathan Coffey's remark afterwards that this looks "damning" for Lucy Letby. Because they know the corrected facts can't support that comment.

That’s the thing with science and statistics - you enter shit data, and you’ll get shit data out the other end.

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