Sorry couldn't do a link
Speaking on Radio 4 yesterday, Robert Cuffe, head of statistics at the BBC, said the figure relating to crime in London was “probably an exaggeration”. He explained:
The figures come from the Metropolitan police. The Centre for Migration Control got a Freedom of Information request from them, and they do indeed show that 40% of people proceeded against for sexual offences last year were foreign nationals.
“Proceeded against” – that’s charged or cautioned, not necessarily convicted.
So [Jenrick’s] wrong to say it’s 40% of crimes committed.
But there’s a more important caveat to bear in mind. Analyses like these that look at the number of crimes or charges against the share of the population – they’re missing a really important factor – age. Younger men are more likely to commit or be charged for these types of crimes, and foreign nationals are more likely to be young.
So if you did a proper analysis that really took account of those differences, the gaps would look a lot smaller.
I
’ve been talking to people in the field who don’t have an axe to grind, and they say of course it’s possible that there’s something here, these just aren’t the data to tell us.
Cuffe said the second claim, about Afghans and Eritreans being 20 times more likely to commit crimes than Britons, was much more problematic.
He explained:
For this one, I think you’re on much, much, much shakier ground, because all of the problems [with the previous figures] apply here, and some more as well.
Foreign nationals are also less likely to show up in the population stats, because, for example, the ONS don’t go to communal establishments like migrant hostels.
That’s not too big a deal if you’re looking at the share of population as a whole. But if you’re looking at just Eritreans, who account for less than 1% of these offences, or Afghans, then those differences become really, really important. If you miss a small number of people, it can have an outsized effect.
So those numbers like 20 times more likely – run a mile from those.
On the blog yesterday I also highlighted a very good Substack analysis by Emma Monk dismantling Tory claims about asylum seekers being disporportionately criminal.