Ukraine Invasion: Part 57

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 57. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇩🇪 Germany has confirmed that its ambassador to Ukraine, Martin Jäger, will head the country’s foreign intelligence service (BND).
Jäger has extensive experience in working with intelligence agencies — both in Berlin and in crisis regions around the world. He previously worked at the German Foreign Office, served as press secretary to then-Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, and was appointed ambassador to Afghanistan in 2013.
He later served as Germany’s ambassador to Iraq (beginning in 2021 in Baghdad), and since July 2023, he has held the post of ambassador to Ukraine. The exact date he will assume his new role has not yet been announced.
His predecessor, 62-year-old Bruno Kahl, will become Germany’s representative to the Holy See in Rome.

🇦🇷 Argentina has uncovered a Russian spy network that aimed to destabilize the country from within.
According to intelligence reports, the main task of the agents was to spread disinformation campaigns and attempt to influence internal affairs in Argentina. To do this, they sought out locals with pro-Russian views.
Argentinian security services identified Russian national Lev Andriashvili and his wife, Irina Yakovenko, as key figures in the scheme. Both were reportedly receiving funding from Moscow. During the investigation, authorities traced their activities to an organization called La Compañía, which has ties to Project Lakhta—a disinformation initiative funded by Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Ukraine’s new law that will allow its people to hold dual citizenship has yet to resolve the systemic problems that beset the country’s immigration procedures and bureaucracy.

I looked into this on Ukrainian SM and was surprised to see mostly negative comments. I don’t know why this surprised me, I am not sure if a significant amount of those comments are from trolls as they seem to repeat the same narrative (e.g betrayal, country being sold off, as well as a strange assumption that Ukraine will be over run with immigrants from Africa now and also anti-Semitic comments)

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Putin, Xi to agree to meet in China (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-xi-to-meet-in-china-as-they-sneer-at-g7-summit-discord/) as they sneer at G7 summit fractures.
Putin and Xi Jinping held a phone call, in which they agreed to meet in August and September and noted the supposed "rough edges" that emerged among G7 leaders during their summit, said Putin's aide, Yuri Ushakov, on June 19.

⚡️Ukraine must (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-must-accept-moscows-terms-or-surrender-russias-ambassador-to-uk-says/) accept Moscow's demands or 'surrender,' Russia’s ambassador to UK says.

Once firm, support for Ukraine among its neighbors wavers amid a populist surge (https://kyivindependent.com/support-for-ukraine-wavers-among-its-neighbors/)
Ukraine still has allies in the neighborhood. But when compared to 2022, the trend is clear — A steady erosion of solidarity among Ukraine's partners in Central and Eastern Europe amid war fatigue, domestic concerns, and rising populism.

⚡️ Russia 'on the verge' of recession (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-on-the-verge-of-recession-russian-economy-minister-warns/), Russian economy minister warns.
"According to current business perceptions, we are already, it seems, on the verge of a transition to a recession," Russian Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

⚡️Russia's war-fueled economy is running (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-war-fueled-economy-is-running-on-empty-central-bank-chief-warns/) on empty, Central Bank chief warns.
"We grew for two years at a fairly high pace because free resources were activated," Russia's Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

⚡️ Russia says South Africa invited Putin (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-says-south-africa-invited-putin-to-g20-summit-despite-icc-arrest-warrant/) to G20 summit despite ICC arrest warrant.

⚡️ North Korea considers sending (https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-may-send-25-000-workers-to-russia-to-help-produce-shahed-drones-media-reports/) 25,000 workers to Russia to help produce Shahed drones, media reports.
In return, Pyongyang is reportedly seeking drone operation training.

⚡️Trump administration doesn't like working with Zelensky's top aide (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-administration-doesnt-like-working-with-zelenskys-top-aide-politico-reports/), Politico reports. 
"All the people here who want to withdraw and abandon Ukraine are thrilled to have Yermak around," one source told Politico.

⚡️ Zelensky appoints (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-appoints-brigadier-general-shapovalov-as-new-ground-forces-commander/) Brigadier General Shapovalov as new Ground Forces chief.
Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov, born in 1978 in Kirovohrad Oblast, is a career officer who graduated from the Military Institute of Tank Troops in Kharkiv and later studied at the National Defense University of Ukraine.

⚡️Russian political party requests (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-party-asks-asylum-for-musk/) political asylum for Musk, senior MP claims. 
Davankov, deputy speaker of the State Duma, told reporters at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that his party had formally petitioned the Russian Foreign Ministry to provide Musk with asylum. The request is expected to be reviewed within a month, he reportedly said.

⚡️EU reportedly eyes (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-eyes-new-investments-for-frozen-russian-assets-to-boost-ukraine-aid/) riskier investments for frozen Russian assets to boost Ukraine aid.
According to Politico, the proposed plan would redirect the frozen Russian assets into a special investment fund under EU control, allowing for higher returns without confiscating the assets.

⚡️Putin-Trump meeting (https://kyivindependent.com/no-putin-trump-meeting-until-us-removes-diplomatic-irritants-kremlin-says/) currently not on the table, Kremlin says
"Until the necessary 'homework' is done to remove the irritants in our relations with the United States, it makes no sense to organize a meeting," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said.

Trump's peace push falters in both Ukraine and the Middle East — for similar reasons
Five months into Trump's presidency, the wars intensify rather than end.

⚡️Finland votes (https://kyivindependent.com/finland-votes-to-withdraw-from-landmine-treaty-citing-russian-threat/) to withdraw from landmine treaty, citing Russian threat. 
The vote aligns Finland with its Baltic allies, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, whose parliaments have already approved similar exits from the treaty.

⚡️Baltics, Nordics, Poland propose (https://kyivindependent.com/baltic-nordic-states-poland-propose-schengen-ban-for-russians-who-fought-in-ukraine/) Schengen ban for Russians who fought in Ukraine.
"There are hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens who have fought against Ukraine," Estonian Interior Minister Igor Taro said. "We must take a clear stance, these individuals cannot freely travel across Schengen."

⚡️ Spain rejects (https://kyivindependent.com/spain-rejects-nato-5-defense-spending-push-calls-proposal-unreasonable/) NATO 5% defense spending push, calls proposal 'unreasonable'

⚡️Latvia prohibits (https://kyivindependent.com/latvia-prohibits-russian-belarusian-citizens-from-purchasing-real-estate/) Russian, Belarusian citizens from purchasing real estate.

⚡️Russia would (https://kyivindependent.com/regime-change-in-iran-unacceptable-kremlin-says/) react 'very negatively' to Iran leader's assassination, Kremlin says. 

Ukraine war latest: Russia accidentally admits to its staggering troop losses (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-93/)in Ukraine

Ukraine Reforms Tracker Weekly — Issue 30
(https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-reforms-tracker-weekly-issue-30/)
This is issue 30 of Ukrainian lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak’s weekly "Ukraine Reforms Tracker" covering events from June 9–June 15, 2025. The digest highlights steps taken in the Ukrainian parliament related to business, economics, and international financial programs.

⚡️Dutch parliament recognizes (https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-parliament-recognizes-1944-deportation-of-crimean-tatars-as-genocide/) Soviet 1944 deportation of Crimean Tatars as genocide. 

⚡️ Russia's prison chief (https://kyivindependent.com/russias-prison-chief-sentenced-in-absentia-for-torture-chambers-in-kherson-oblast/) sentenced in absentia for torture chambers in Kherson Oblast.

⚡️Ukraine documents 366 cases of war-related sexual violence (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-documents-366-cases-of-war-related-sexual-violence-most-victims-women/), most victims women. 
The victims include 231 women, 134 men, and 19 children, according to Ukraine's Foreign Ministry.

⚡️EU proposes integrating (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-proposes-integrating-ukraine-into-blocs-mobile-roaming-area/) Ukraine into bloc's mobile roaming area.
The European Commission has proposed that Ukraine join the European Union's mobile roaming area starting January 1, 2026, providing Ukrainian users the ability to make phone calls, texts, and use mobile data in the bloc's 27 countries at no extra charge.

⚡️Death toll in Russia's mass strike (https://kyivindependent.com/kyiv-hit-by-russian-drones-and-ballistic-missiles-over-a-dozen-injured/) on Kyiv rises to 30 dead, 172 wounded. 

⚡️ Update: 1 killed, 14 injured in ‘massive’ Russian drone attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/massive-russian-drone-attack-on-residential-building-in-odesa-injures-13/) on Odesa.

️ 2 killed, 39 injured in Russian attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-157/) against Ukraine over past day.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 3h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — JUN 20, 2025
■ Combat engagements & casualties remain below the 7-day average
■ Artillery losses stay above average
■ Strikes increased on both sides; strike ratio remains in the single digits

Bolding and italics have gone nuts again.

Musk's father went on a special trip to Moscow recently. I wonder if it was to test the waters.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️Russia has reduced the intensity of assault group activity in the border area of Sumy region, according to a spokesman for the State Border Service of Ukraine.
The border with Russia in the Sumy region stretches about 550 km. Currently, the enemy continues using small assault groups only in limited sections, spokesman Andriy Demchenko reported.
He also noted that no armored vehicles—previously used by Russia in attempted breakthroughs—have been observed recently.

Putin will meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on September 2 in China, according to Yuri Ushakov, an adviser to the Russian dictator.
Putin will also attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit.
Today, he held a phone conversation with Xi, during which they discussed the situation in the Middle East, Ushakov said.
Putin last visited China in May 2024. Following that visit, both countries signed a statement on deepening their comprehensive strategic partnership.

Denmark will push for Ukraine’s EU membership during its presidency of the EU Council, said the country’s Minister for European Affairs, Marie Bjerre.
“Unfortunately, Hungary is blocking [Ukraine's membership in the EU], and we are doing everything we can to apply pressure, while also ensuring that Ukraine continues the necessary reform work,” Bjerre stated.

Russia and Iran are using the same oil tankers to finance the war, President Zelenskyy said following a meeting on Ukraine’s sanctions policy.

NATO and Ukraine are testing systems to counter Russian glide bombs (KABs), with plans to deploy them by the end of 2025, Defence Express reports.
Currently, Ukraine lacks effective tools to combat these bombs. The new effort involves building a multi-layered air defense system capable of defending not only against glide bombs but also against Shahed drones.
Startups Alta Ares, Atreyd, and Tytan are contributing under the NATO Innovation Challenge initiative.
Alta Ares is developing a system to detect, identify, and predict the flight paths of glide bombs. Atreyd and Tytan are working on anti-aircraft drone solutions, including a swarm of kamikaze drones designed to create a "wall of drones" for interception.

The EU is considering transferring about €200 billion in frozen Russian assets from the Euroclear system in Belgium to a “special purpose fund,” Politico reports.
Currently, Euroclear can only invest through the Belgian Central Bank, which is safe but offers low returns. The new fund would be allowed to make riskier investments, potentially increasing income that could be directed to support Ukraine.
Importantly, the plan involves using only the income generated from the frozen assets—not the assets themselves—which EU diplomats say would help avoid accusations of violating international law.
This move could also serve as a workaround to prevent Hungary from vetoing the extension of sanctions against Russia, which could otherwise risk unfreezing Russian funds.

🇨🇳 Chinese hackers are stealing Russian military secrets despite the countries’ close political ties, The New York Times reports.
Since May 2022, Chinese cyber activity targeting Russia has significantly increased. Beijing reportedly views Russia as weak in science and military technology, though China itself lacks real combat experience.
An internal document from the Russian FSB, obtained by the publication, directly labels China as an adversary seeking to acquire Russian military technologies and battlefield knowledge.

The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF), heavily promoted by Russia, has shown that Western businesses are not returning to the Russian Federation, Agency reports.
According to the publication:
▫️ Expectations of a Western business comeback were fueled by the unexpected warming of Russian-American relations following Trump’s second term in the White House.
▫️ However, major American investors did not attend the forum, despite several conversations between Putin and Trump.
▫️ The absence of Western investors at SPIEF signals little hope for the recovery of foreign investment in Russia.
▫️ Even major Russian businessmen showed limited interest — only six of the 50 richest people in Russia participated in the forum.
▫️ Many forum sessions were dominated by government officials and state enterprise managers, rather than private sector leaders.
▫️ The only foreign head of state in attendance was Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto — and trade between Russia and Indonesia accounts for just 1% of Russia’s total foreign trade volume.
▫️ Robert Agee, head of the American Chamber of Commerce, told Reuters that the war in Ukraine must end before American companies will even consider returning to the Russian market.

The resources that enabled the Russian economy to grow for two years despite war and sanctions are now exhausted, said Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank of Russia, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, The Moscow Times reports.
“We grew for two years at a fairly high rate because we used available reserves—labor force, production capacity, capital in the banking system, and funds from the National Welfare Fund, which the government used to patch budget holes and finance trillion-ruble megaprojects. Many of these resources are now truly depleted,” Nabiullina said.
Russia’s unemployment rate has dropped to a historic low of 2.3%, according to Rosstat. However, mass emigration and military mobilization have created a severe labor shortage, which the government estimates at 2 million people.
Since the start of the war, liquid assets in the National Welfare Fund have fallen by a third to 2.8 trillion rubles. Experts warn this reserve could be fully depleted by 2026.

As a result of the massive Russian drone attack on Odesa, more than 10 strikes were recorded, causing large-scale fires, the State Emergency Service reported.

Ukraine is forming its first all-female crew to intercept Shahed drones, the 427th Regiment of Unmanned Systems announced.
The crew will operate UAV interceptors, tracking enemy targets and neutralizing them in real time.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Russian agents exposed (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/54853) — Ukraine stops a Russian plot by the Main Intelligence Directorate to target Ukraine’s Neptune missiles.

Russians caught eating their own comrades: Cannibalism exposed in Putin’s troops (www.kyivpost.com/post/54861) via intercepted call released by Ukraine’s military intel (HUR).

Estonia has begun constructing a defense line on the border with Russia, — ERR

As part of the €4.4 million project, trenches 3 meters deep and 4 meters wide are being dug, with plans to build up to 28 bunkers and 10 storage facilities. Anti-tank ditches are already being dug in some sections.

According to the report, Lithuania and Latvia also plan to build similar fortifications.

Russia's Orreshnik missile, billed as a hypersonic game-changer, is largely recycled tech with limited accuracy and high cost, serving more as propaganda than threat.

“My next mission: fighting for what’s right here at home.” (www.kyivpost.com/post/54808) Brink, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, has launched her bid for Congress in Michigan’s 7th District. She says it’s time to put Michigan families first – and fight back.

Shaheds equipped with cameras have been encountered (www.kyivpost.com/post/54779) before but these were used for terrain-matching navigation. This latest version includes a direct radio control system.

BACK FROM HELL: Another group of Ukrainian POWs freed from Russian captivity.
Most of the soldiers who returned today had been in captivity for more than two years. These are defenders of Mariupol, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Despite political differences in Washington, there is a rare consensus: Andriy Yermak has worn out his welcome — especially with the Trump administration, according to Politico.
Many in Washington view Yermak as poorly informed about U.S. politics, abrasive, overly demanding, and incapable of navigating the Washington establishment.
Some officials fear he misrepresents the U.S. position to Ukraine’s leadership, with one source calling him a “bipartisan irritant.”
His visits often lack a clear agenda, leaving American counterparts wondering: “We don’t know why he’s here.”
Currently, there is serious distrust toward Zelensky’s administration. Kyiv’s inability to understand the political dynamics in the U.S. is having a corrosive effect. Friction caused by Yermak could damage Ukraine’s standing in Washington.
One source described Yermak as someone who behaves as if Ukraine is the center of the world — an attitude that has already strained relations with the U.S.
His conduct risks fueling Republican voices and Trump allies who seek to end American support for Ukraine.

🇸🇪 Sweden will borrow $31 billion to increase its defense spending.
The goal is to meet NATO’s target of 3.5% of GDP spent on defense by 2032. Stockholm has already doubled its defense spending since 2020, reaching about 2.4% of GDP.
The country’s current priorities include expanding the size and capabilities of its armed forces, strengthening air defense, and increasing ammunition stockpiles.
Sweden’s national debt stands at around 32% of GDP, while the EU average is approximately 90%. The additional defense funding is expected to raise the debt by about 3%.
The government will temporarily suspend its strict fiscal rules, but public finances are expected to be balanced again by 2035. This means future governments will likely need to either raise taxes or cut spending in other areas.

🇺🇸 Trump was not interested in meeting with Zelensky — this was one of the reasons he left the G7 summit early.
According to the Financial Times, the U.S. president’s decision was also influenced by frustration with the French president, who visited Greenland and spoke out against Trump’s previous plans to bring the island under American control. Emmanuel Macron became the first foreign leader to visit Greenland following Trump’s threats to annex it.

The New York Times has reported that an American citizen, Fred Grundy, was killed in Kyiv during Russia’s massive missile strike on June 17.
Grundy, disillusioned with U.S. politics and particularly disappointed by Donald Trump, had traveled to Ukraine to help. According to his sister, he was deeply committed to making a difference.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-20-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russians and Ukrainians are one nation and all of Ukraine is effectively Russian as part of efforts to justify his continued conquest of Ukraine.
• Putin asserted that Russia will be able to achieve its goals through a protracted war in Ukraine.
• Putin and other Kremlin officials are using the guise of "buffer zones" to expand Russia's territorial demands in Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues to prioritize maintaining the facade of economic stability by pursuing economic policies that will likely exacerbate Russia's economic instability.
• Putin is attempting to obfuscate the reality that increased investment in Russia's defense industrial base (DIB) has come at the cost of Russia's civilian economic sectors.
• Open-source intelligence suggests that Russia is increasing its T-90M tank production capabilities
• Ukraine and Russia conducted the sixth prisoner of war (POW) exchange in accordance with the June 2 Istanbul agreements.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Brigadier General Hennadii Shapovalov as Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces on June 19.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

'All of Ukraine is ours' — Putin on Russia's territorial ambitions in Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/all-of-ukraine-is-ours/)
Russian President Vladimir Putin said 'all of Ukraine' belonged to Russia in a speech on June 20 at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, amid increasingly bullish official statements about Moscow's final territorial ambitions in Ukraine.
"Wherever the foot of a Russian soldier steps is Russian land," Putin said. [He's gone stark raving mad with hubris hasn't he?]

⚡️Zelensky to attend (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-attend-nato-summit-despite-media-reports-that-he-will-not-attend/) NATO summit despite media reports that he will not attend.
President Volodymyr Zelensky is set to attend a NATO summit in The Hague next week, the European Council confirmed on June 20.

⚡️'This is the best offer (kyivindependent.com/this-is-the-best-offer-ukraine-can-get-today-russia-wont-back-down-as-renewed-peace-talks-loom/) Ukraine can get today' — Russia won't back down as renewed peace talks loom.
Russia's memorandum on a peace proposal is the "best offer Ukraine can get today," Russia's envoy to the United Nations (UN), Vasily Nebenzya, said at a UN Security Council meeting on June 20.

⚡️ Russian economy warnings (kyivindependent.com/putin-downplays-economic-concerns-says-reports-of-collapse-greatly-exaggerated/) are 'greatly exaggerated,' Putin claims.
The statement comes after warnings from his own officials about stagnation and looming recession.

⚡️Ukraine developing interceptor drones (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-developing-interceptor-drones-to-counter-russian-attacks-zelensky-says/) to counter Russian attacks, Zelensky says.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his June 20 nightly address that Ukraine is developing interceptor drones to counter Russian drone strikes, adding that domestic production is "already delivering results."

⚡️Ukraine unites (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-creates-new-grouping-of-unmanned-systems-forces/) Unmanned Systems Forces with top 'Drone Line' units under new command group.

⚡️Ukraine imposes (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-imposes-new-sanctions-on-russian-chinese-belarusian-companies-involved-in-drone-production/) new sanctions on Russian, Chinese, Belarusian companies involved in drone production.
Ukraine introduced new restrictions as Russia has escalated drone attacks against Ukrainian cities over the past weeks, launching record 400-500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) per night.

⚡️ Russian drone strikes (kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-strikes-on-ukraine-might-drop-due-to-middle-east-conflict-estonian-intel-say/) on Ukraine might drop due to Iran-Israel conflict, Estonian intel says.
Russian drone attacks against Ukraine might decrease due to Iranian Shahed production capabilities being targeted in Israeli strikes, Estonian military intelligence commander Ants Kiviselg said.

⚡️ Trump administration sends layoff notices (kyivindependent.com/trump-administration-sends-layoff-notices-to-600-voice-of-america-staff-nyt-reports/) to 600 Voice of America staff, NYT reports.
U.S. President Donald Trump's crackdown against Voice of America has been celebrated by Russian propagandists, who welcomed the cuts to the network.

The beginning of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts' occupation in 2014, the battle for Mariupol in 2022, and the capture of Avdiivka in 2024 are no longer just episodes of Russian aggression against Ukraine. They are now missions in the new Russian video game Squad 22: ZOV.
Read more here. (kyivindependent.com/russia-has-transferred-the-war-in-ukraine-online-what-is-known-about-the-new-propaganda-game-squad-22-zov/)

At least 13 injured in Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/at-least-13-injured-in-russian-attacks-on-ukraine-over-past-day/) on Ukraine over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — JUN 21, 2025
■ Combat engagements up, casualties slightly down
■ Unarmored vehicle losses well above average
■ Visually confirmed batch: 31 🇷🇺 : 51 🇺🇦 (1.4× over the past 30 days)
■ Strike ratio remains in the single digits

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

😁 One of Russia’s largest defense plants in Tula has ceased operations after being hit by two drone strikes in three days, Russian media report.
On June 18, five drones attacked the Shipunov Instrument Design Bureau—a key developer of high-precision weapons for the army, navy, air force, and air defense. The strike damaged a substation, product warehouses, and the administration building, sparking a fire.
The second attack occurred on the night of June 20, when a drone hit a hangar with finished products, damaging the roof and walls. Following this, the plant halted operations.

🇩🇪 The Bundeswehr’s updated military strategy identifies Russia as an “existential risk” to Germany.
The new doctrine, developed over the past year and a half by military officials and experts, cites intelligence assessments suggesting that Russia may be preparing for a direct military conflict with NATO by 2029.
Analysts point to Putin’s ongoing military buildup, with the Russian army projected to reach 1.5 million soldiers by 2026.
The strategy notes that the Kremlin is deliberately restructuring its industry and administrative systems to prepare for a large-scale confrontation with NATO by the end of the decade.

Austria may reconsider its neutrality if Slovakia withdraws from NATO, former Austrian Defense Minister Werner Fasslabend said.
He noted that such a move by Prime Minister Fico would worsen Austria’s security environment and spark serious debate about the country’s possible NATO membership.
For now, Austria intends to maintain its neutral status. Fasslabend explained that Austria relies on the EU treaty, which includes a mutual defense clause in the event of a military attack.
Additionally, Austria is currently surrounded by friendly states—neutral Switzerland to the west and NATO countries on all other borders.

‼️Ukraine has returned seriously wounded and seriously ill defenders from Russian captivity as part of the latest stage of a major prisoner exchange.
All those released today are soldiers and sergeants. Among them are defenders of Mariupol who have been in captivity since 2022.
Each of the returned defenders is suffering from serious injuries or illnesses, including epilepsy, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, vision impairments, musculoskeletal disorders, hernias, and chronic digestive conditions. Many show signs of significant weight loss.
The released defenders will be taken to medical centers for full examinations, treatment, and rehabilitation. They will also receive assistance in restoring their documents and financial compensation for the period spent in captivity.
The exchange process under the Istanbul agreements is ongoing. The total number of those released will be announced once all stages are completed.

Russian peace in Toretsk… https://t.me/United24media/32733

Russian forces once again launched a massive, combined attack on Kremenchuk in the Poltava region. There were direct hits and falling debris.
Units of the State Emergency Service are working at the scene to eliminate the consequences.
One person sustained moderate injuries.

If Russia’s foreign exchange reserves drop to around $10 billion, Putin will likely seek a ceasefire—but not abandon his ambitions in Ukraine, former U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Kurt Volker said in an interview with Nastoyashcheye Vremya.
“This would pose a risk to the functioning of the Russian state. Whatever Putin’s motives, if it jeopardizes the Russian state, I think he would seek a ceasefire.
Russia is burning through its financial resources to sustain this war. It is losing people and equipment. So I think Russia will need a ceasefire by the fall. If Putin tries to launch a summer offensive and fails, he’ll see the war drag on. And then perhaps we can agree on a ceasefire.
I think there is a real prospect of a ceasefire if we tighten sanctions on Russia and continue to supply weapons to Ukraine.
But I do not expect a peace agreement on Ukraine. I don’t think Putin will ever give up his demands for the annexation of Ukrainian territories or for a change of government in Ukraine. He will continue to deny Ukraine the right to have an army, will demand a ban on Western support for Kyiv, and insist on Ukraine staying out of NATO and the EU.
He will never give up these demands—and no one will agree to them.
So we will most likely end up with a ceasefire and a very tense standoff, in which Ukraine and the West will work to deter future attacks and strengthen Ukraine’s defense—even as part of the country remains occupied,” Volker said.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Igor Petrov vice-governor of Russia’s Leningrad Region on June 19 joined the ranks of the dozens of “out of favor” Russians (www.kyivpost.com/post/54859) who have suffered suspicious deaths since Putin came to power.

Kherson region is calling for armored vehicles (www.kyivpost.com/post/54882) — as relentless Russian attacks turn every rescue into a deadly mission.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

China may have transferred lethal weaponry to Russia, The Economist reports, calling Beijing the most critical enabler of the Kremlin’s war machine.
Since 2023, China has been actively supporting Russia’s war effort — previously confirmed to have supplied key weapons components and civilian drones.
Now, anonymous officials have told the media that Beijing has also transferred “small batches of artillery shells and military UAVs” to Moscow. Until now, there had been little public evidence of direct ammunition shipments.
However, The Economist notes that Chinese weapons themselves are less crucial than the flow of Chinese components and equipment. In September 2024, China introduced stricter export controls on drones and their parts. Although officially applied to both Russia and Ukraine, enforcement has been selective.

🇮🇹Italy has pledged €1.5 million to support humanitarian demining efforts in Ukraine.
The funding will help expand demining operations, improve information management systems, and support specialized training programs for people with disabilities, war veterans, and those affected by explosive remnants of war.

🇫🇷France is investing more than €700 million in the satellite communications operator Eutelsat to help develop a European alternative to Starlink.
“The European Union will gain a sovereign, competitive, and innovative satellite constellation. Eutelsat, with its expertise in both low Earth and geostationary orbits, will be a key player in achieving this goal — with France’s full support,” said French Economy Minister Éric Lombard.
He added that France is increasing its stake in Eutelsat to back the company at this critical stage of development.
▪️In March, amid tensions between the U.S. and Ukraine — particularly due to disputes involving President Zelensky and Donald Trump, as well as disagreements over mineral deals — concerns arose over whether Ukraine might lose access to Starlink. While U.S. officials reassured Kyiv that the connection would remain intact, Ukraine began actively seeking alternatives. One of them was Eutelsat.

🇮🇹🇺🇳Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has called for a fundamental rethinking of NATO, arguing that the alliance no longer makes sense in its current form due to global shifts in power.
“NATO no longer has a reason to exist in this shape,” Crosetto said, citing the decline of the Atlantic region’s centrality in world politics. “Once, the U.S. and Europe were the center. Now there’s everything else we need to engage with.”
Crosetto also expressed skepticism about Europe’s relevance on the global stage, stating: “Europe’s time has passed — and I say that with sadness.”
He further downplayed the role of the United Nations, adding: “The UN is as relevant in today’s world as Europe — which is to say, not at all… less than China, less than India, or even Israel.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin said 'all of Ukraine' belonged to Russia in a speech on June 20 at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, amid increasingly bullish official statements about Moscow's final territorial ambitions in Ukraine.
"Wherever the foot of a Russian soldier steps is Russian land," Putin said. [He's gone stark raving mad with hubris hasn't he?]

He really has! By this logic half lots of African countries and Syria are theirs too no?

The beginning of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts' occupation in 2014, the battle for Mariupol in 2022, and the capture of Avdiivka in 2024 are no longer just episodes of Russian aggression against Ukraine. They are now missions in the new Russian video game Squad 22: ZOV.

sick fuckwits 😡

By this logic half lots of African countries and Syria are theirs too no?

Yes indeed. That might – might – be a gift to Ukraine in relations with African countries.

Of course when Wagner (now an official Russian government-run organisation, no?) is providing services to a corrupt government, that government's not going to care about such statements.

But "Wherever the foot of a Russian soldier steps is Russian land" is such a nakedly colonial statement, and applies so broadly, that it may cause some hackles to rise among African politicians and citizens.

I think Putin might have made a mistake there.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin's long-term demands for full Ukrainian capitulation remain unchanged.
• Ukrainian officials responded to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s June 20 statements at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) and urged the international community to take more decisive action against Russia.
• Kremlin officials appear to be reviving the false narrative that Ukraine intends to use a "dirty bomb" against Russia, likely in an attempt to influence Western discussions about providing additional military assistance to Ukraine.
• US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk on June 21.
• Russia continues to field modernized Shahed drones, expand domestic drone production capabilities, and innovate long-range strike tactics.
• The Russian government formally announced its intention to reassess Russia's territorial waters in the Baltic Sea over a year after the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published and subsequently deleted a similar proposal.
• Russian forces advanced near Novopavlivka and Velyka Novosilka.

We’ve attacked Fordow and two other nuclear sites.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-conflict-latest-news

All US aircraft have safely departed Iranian air space.

Damage assessment will take a day or two, and there may be further attacks.

This is not good news.

How much will this escalate tensions in the Middle East? Iran did not have that much support outside of smaller counties, but will other Arab countries take offence?

I would like to think US involvement hastens the end of the Israel Iran conflict as Iran surely cannot withstand co ordinated strike a by the US and Israel. Russia who signed a strategic agreement pact with Iran can only stand by helplessly as these strikes continue signalling its huge loss of influence in the middle East something Putin will have to contend with. I would like to think of we soon get effectively an Iranian surrender or perhaps regime change then the world's attention can fully turn back to Ukraine.

I think a lot of gulf states have good relationships with the US and share concerns about Iran. I think there will be a secret wish the U.S. can act with force to destroy Iranian military assets to force a hugely humiliating surrender or a collapse in a hugely unpopular regime. We also have to be very careful about anything that impacts the global economy and prolonged conflict could do that allowing Iran to do crazy things like close the straits of Homuz. Shock and awe 2025 to my mind believe it or not may be the way forward.....a decisive show of US military might may impact Putin's thoughts on continied aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere as he sees a physical demonstration of what he would be dealing with in terms of US/NATO opposition.

Also Trump has signalled in quite dramatic style that the US is not completely isolationist and will intervene in world affairs for the interests of the U.S. And global security. The U.S. has bared its gangs and the world and very much Russia should take note. Could it be as Trump has made this really quite significant decision about war and peace as commander in chief he may remake his presidency in a mood that is more involved militarily in world affairs. This won't be popular with the MAGA base but maybe Trump at some level want to remembered as a leader of strength?

Oh boy. Oh boy.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️US conducts air strikes (kyivindependent.com/us-conducts-air-strikes-on-iranian-nuclear-sites-trump-says/) on Iranian nuclear sites, Trump says.
The United States conducted air strikes on nuclear sites in Iran, U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post to Truth Social on June 21.

⚡️NATO summit to sideline Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/nato-summit-to-sideline-ukraine-focus-on-flattering-trump-politico-reports/), focus on flattering Trump, Politico reports.
"(Trump) has to get credit for the 5% — that's why we're having the summit," one unnamed European defense official told Politico. "Everything else is being streamlined to minimize risk." [this is like medieval times, having to flatter the egotistical potentate]

⚡️ Russia seeks to advance along almost entire front (kyivindependent.com/russia-seeking-to-advance-almost-along-entire-eastern-front-in-ukraines-east-syrskyi-says/) in Ukraine's east, Syrskyi says.
As of mid-June, Ukrainian defenders are fighting close to 695,000 Russian troops in Ukraine across a 1,200-kilometer (750-mile) front, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said.

⚡️Ukraine planning diplomatic overhaul (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-planning-diplomatic-overhaul-to-win-stronger-global-support-against-russia/) to win stronger global support against Russia.
"The president has already made certain personnel decisions regarding the heads of some foreign institutions, because the criterion is very simple: results," Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on June 21.

⚡️ Ukraine approves (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-approves-termit-ground-drone-for-battlefield-deployment-2/) Termit ground drone for battlefield deployment.
The tracked robot is a next-generation version of Ukraine's existing ground-based unmanned systems already deployed across the front.

⚡️Russia has over 1,950 strategic missiles (kyivindependent.com/russia-has-over-1-950-strategic-missiles-ukraines-military-intelligence-tells-media/), Ukraine's military intelligence tells media.
Russia produces up to 195 missiles per month, Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) told the news outlet RBC-Ukraine.

⚡️Ukraine's security service is teaching teenagers how to avoid recruitment (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-security-service-is-teaching-teenagers-how-to-avoid-recruitment-by-russian-intelligence/) by Russian intelligence.
Ukraine's security service (SBU) is teaching teenagers how to avoid recruitment by Russian intelligence online, the New York Times (NYT) reported on June 21.

⚡️ Russia recruits Central Asia migrants as 'cannon fodder (kyivindependent.com/russia-recruits-central-asia-migrants-as-cannon-fodder-in-ukraine-war-intel-says/)' in Ukraine war, HUR says.
Citizens of Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and other countries in the region are increasingly being drawn into Russia's war effort.

⚡️Ukraine asks allies to earmark 0.25% of GDP (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-asks-allies-to-earmark-0-25-of-gdp-for-joint-defense-production-zelensky-says/) for joint defense production, Zelensky says.

⚡️ Russia's Oreshnik missile production (kyivindependent.com/russias-oreshnik-missile-production-can-by-halted-by-urgent-sanctions-zelensky-says/) can be halted by 'urgent' sanctions, Zelensky says.

⚡️ Ukraine's deep strikes cost Russia over $10 billion (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-deep-strikes-inflicted-1-3-billion-in-direct-damage-to-russia-this-year-syrskyi-says/) this year, Syrskyi says.
This includes $1.3 billion in direct damage. The estimated cost-to-result ratio of Ukrainian deep strikes is 1:15, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told journalists on June 21.

⚡️ 'My husband is free' — Belarus opposition leader Sergei Tikhanovsky (kyivindependent.com/in-highest-level-visit-in-years-lukashenko-meets-us-envoy-kellogg-in-minsk/) freed after US envoy visits Minsk.
Sergei Tikhanovsky was sentenced to 18 years in prison on politically motivated charges in 2021.

⚡️ Russia 'afraid to admit (kyivindependent.com/by-dumping-bodies-during-exchanges-russia-afraid-to-admit-scale-of-casualties-zelensky-says/)' scale of losses, trying to hide by dumping soldiers' bodies on Ukraine, Zelensky says.
Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that at least 20 of the bodies Russia returned as Ukrainian were actually Russian soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Ukrainians forcibly deported (kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-forcibly-deported-by-russia-held-in-basement-without-food-water-media-reports/) by Russia held in basement without food, water, media reports.
Over 45 Ukrainians forcibly deported by Russia from Ukraine's occupied territories are being held in a basement at Russia's border with Georgia without food, water, and basic healthcare, independent media outlet Astra reported on June 21.

⚡️'A total failure' (kyivindependent.com/a-total-failure-hungarian-opposition-leader-says-ukraine-eu-accession-national-poll-had-lowest-ever-turnout/) — Hungarian opposition leader says Ukraine EU accession national poll had lowest ever turnout.

Inside the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine
Forged from the remnants of the Soviet Spetsnaz, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces have become a vital pillar of the country’s current defense, playing their role in some of the war’s most decisive engagements – from Kyiv to Donbas, and to Kursk Oblast in Russia. Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, they have had to learn and adapt, as the rise of the war of drones transformed what was understood to be achievable by special forces, for better or for worse.
Watch here. ()

How 3 years of war have ravaged Ukraine’s forests, and the people who depend on them
(kyivindependent.com/how-3-years-of-war-have-ravaged-ukraines-forests-and-the-people-who-depend-on-them/)
Missiles, artillery shelling, and explosive devices, such as land mines, have ravaged Ukraine’s landscapes and ecosystems. Over a third of all carbon emissions in Ukraine stem from warfare — the largest share of any sector in the country.
Fighting has triggered destructive wildfires in heavily forested and agricultural grassland regions of eastern Ukraine. From February 2022 through September 2024, almost 5 million acres burned, nearly three-quarters of which are in or adjacent to the combat zone.

Love, sex, survival — Ukrainian author on how war shapes intimacy in Ukraine
(https://kyivindependent.com/love-sex-survival-ukrainian-author-on-how-war-shapes-intimacy-in-ukraine/)

⚡️ Former Ukrainian POW dies (kyivindependent.com/former-ukrainian-pow-released-from-russian-captivity-in-recent-exchange-dies/) month after being released from Russian captivity.

⚡️ Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/attacks-159/) kill 4, injure 23 in Ukraine over past day.

UNITED 24 Media Telegram Highlights

⚡️None of the “Patriot” systems were destroyed or damaged in the recent massive Russian strikes, President Zelenskyy said.
“What was reported in the media does not correspond to reality,” he emphasized.

Ukraine is superior to Russia in FPV drones, but Russia currently has the upper hand in fiber-optic drones, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said.
“We are aware of the Russian Federation’s plans and their efforts to increase drone production. They’ve made progress, particularly with fiber-optic controlled drones. Unfortunately, they currently outmatch us in both quantity and operational range. There are already cases where their fiber-optic drones can fly up to 40 km,” Syrskyi noted.
He added that Ukraine is catching up in this area, with domestic manufacturers now supplying drones with a range of up to 20 km.
Syrskyi also emphasized that the rapid development of drone warfare is forcing changes in troop tactics and fortification standards. Traditional structures like those used in Bakhmut are no longer effective—now, smaller formations of trenches and even “fox holes” provide better protection.

At a briefing, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made the following statements:
▫️ During recent repatriations, Russia planted 20 of its own soldiers’ bodies, disguising them as dead Ukrainian servicemen.
▫️ 695,000 Russian troops are currently fighting at the front, with an additional 52,000 stationed in the Kursk and Belgorod regions.
▫️ In Sumy region, Russian forces advanced just 200 meters before being pushed back 400 meters.
▫️ None of the Patriot systems were destroyed or damaged during recent massive Russian strikes.
▫️ Ukraine is part of Europe’s security and is requesting 0.25% of partner states’ GDP be allocated to support Ukraine’s defense industry.
▫️ Russia receives machine tools for its defense sector from companies in China, Taiwan, Germany, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Japan, India, and components from a U.S. company.
▫️ Of 39 Russian defense industry companies involved in producing the “Oreshnik” missile, 21 are not under sanctions.
▫️ Four Ukrainian companies are currently developing drone interceptor systems.

Ukraine plans to begin exporting its own military technologies to partner countries in Europe and beyond, President Zelenskyy said.
This includes establishing production of drones, missiles, and possibly artillery systems abroad.

Belarus has released 14 political prisoners as part of an agreement with the United States.
The first reports came after Keith Kellogg’s visit to Minsk, when it was revealed that Sergei Tikhanovsky — the husband of opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and one of the country’s most prominent political prisoners — had been freed.
In total, 14 prisoners of the Lukashenko regime were released

Hungarian opposition leader has called Prime Minister Orbán’s referendum on Ukraine a “total failure.”
According to him, data from the Hungarian Post show that only 3–7% of the mailed “ballots” were returned from different regions, meaning no more than 500,000 people participated in the paper vote.
He also pointed out that government representative Gergely Gulyás admitted the number of online responses was even lower than the paper ones.

After the night’s combined Russian shelling of the Kremenchuk district, cluster munitions were discovered in the Poltava region.
These submunitions appear as metal spheres roughly 10 cm in diameter. Their resemblance to toys or bullets makes them particularly dangerous for children.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine still holds around 90 square kilometers (37.8 square miles) in Russia’s Kursk region (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/54941) — Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Syrsky

Kyiv Post got exclusive insight into Ukraine's expanding drone programme, (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/54745) uncovering the technologies, assembly methods, and testing processes behind the unmanned systems countering Russia's invasion.

Ukraine’s defenses strained, drone wars escalate, and Trump skips Zelensky at G7 – weekly briefing on the biggest developments from Ukraine and beyond.