Ukraine Invasion: Part 57

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 57. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights.

Trump has quietly approved another $30 million arms (www.kyivpost.com/post/54494) shipment to Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces are pushing back Putin’s troops in the Sumy region, (www.kyivpost.com/post/54460) Zelensky says — as Russia tries to advance. Fierce fighting continues near the border.

Russian forces expand fighting to a new area in eastern Ukraine, entering Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time since the war began — The New York Times [denied by Ukraine]

IAEA detects radioactive contamination inside Iranian nuclear facility after Israeli strike.
Radiation levels outside the Natanz site remain unchanged. The contamination — mainly alpha particles — is manageable with proper protective measures, the agency said.

Russia is turning a civilian airport in occupied Crimea into a military drone hub. (www.kyivpost.com/post/54456) Satellite images reveal launch pads, camouflage, and air defense gear.

After the success of Ukraine’s SBU Spiderweb operation using drones hidden inside cargo trucks to attack Russian airfields, the sight of an M142 HIMARS launcher popping out of a shipping container (www.kyivpost.com/analysis/54463) at Fort Bragg has ignited a debate on the Trojan Horse potential for such weapons.

Behind the headlines, experts are very skeptical of Putin’s claims: (www.kyivpost.com/videos/54471) production bottlenecks, sanctions, broken supply chains, and catastrophic battlefield losses paint a grim picture.

This is what Mykhailo Dianov looks like nearly two years after being released from captivity.
A senior sergeant of the Ukrainian Marine Corps and defender of Azovstal, Dianov was freed from Russian captivity on September 21, 2022, during a prisoner exchange that returned 215 defenders of Mariupol.
He endured torture and lost 4 cm of bone in his arm — but he never broke. After a long recovery abroad and serving in the police, Mykhailo now helps fellow veterans adapt to civilian life.
As of June 2025, according to official data from the Coordination Headquarters, approximately 8,000 confirmed Ukrainian servicemen remain in Russian captivity. The real number may be even higher.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukraine is not interested in continuing negotiations with Russia unless they include a discussion on a ceasefire, said Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha.

Today, a Russian Su-25 aircraft was shot down by its own wingman during the launch of unguided air-to-ground rockets.
Preliminary reports indicate the incident occurred in Donetsk region, near Soledar. The pilot survived.

🇦🇹🇰🇿 New ambassadors of Austria and Kazakhstan have begun their diplomatic missions in Ukraine.
President Volodymyr Zelensky received their credentials and emphasized his expectations for further development of partnerships between the countries.

Valid point, but keep in mind that Ukraine is the largest country in Europe and Israel is tiny. I also don't think that the shooting war between Israel and Iran is going to go on for very long.

Edited to add that a ground war is out of the question because the two countries don't share a contiguous land border, and Iran's air force is almost non-existent. Iran's proxies have been largely neutralized, and the Russians certainly aren't going to get involved to help them.

Yes, Iran can keep firing missiles and drones, but so can Israel, and Israel has air defenses. Iran's air defenses are gone at this point. The IAF was dropping gravity bombs on Friday instead of using stand off weapons, which tells you that they have no concerns about Iranian air defenses.

It's a worst case scenario for Iran. They're at war with Israel without a nuclear weapon, air defenses, effective proxy forces or allies willing to help.

Let's hope this vulnerability leads to a less malignant regime in Tehran.

Oh I’m not for 1 second saying what is going on is ok in the Middle East, it was more a point around how quickly we become desensitised to suffering.

Why dont you think the shooting war will go on for long? Sorry I’m hopelessly under informed about Iran and Israel’s respective capabilities so I’m not being obtuse, genuinely curious.

I think it will be a quick war for the reasons I listed above. Iran has very few options for fighting Israel, and the ones they have aren't particularly effective. Israel and the US can intercept most of the missiles and drones Iran fires at Israel. Iran is defenseless against attacks by the IAF, and because of the larger payloads those aircraft carry, they're far more effective than missiles and drones. In other words, for every day the war continues, Israel can do vastly more damage to Iran than the other way around.

The most common way for wars to end is when one side loses the ability to fight. Iran is perilously close to that now. The Iranians may wish to de-escalate rather than lose everything. Israel is not their only enemy in the region. And they will be very wary of doing anything that would draw the US into the fight, like attacking Saudi oil facilities.

By the way, I hope that clarified my views on why this will be a quick war, @Igotjelly. It's often difficult for me to know if I'm explaining military issues clearly to people who don't have the same frame of reference and understanding of these things that I do.

And, of course, I could be wrong. 😁

Very helpful thank you!

It can't help Iran that they have to put resources into keeping their own unhappy population down, too.

Unfortunately, while Iran has lost much of its ability to threaten other nations, their apparatus for repressing ordinary Iranians is undiminished, which makes a popular uprising difficult.

Here's a very good analysis of how the Israeli attacks have weakened Iran:

Israel’s Attacks Leave Iran’s Supreme Leader Exposed—With No Good Options - Tehran’s bruising fight with Israel has left its military weakened and unable to respond in kind to Israeli attacks

Finally, Happy Birthday to The U.S. Army!!

This We'll Defend

My old unit's motto was Always Out Front

Happy birthday US Army! May your tradition and values prevail over the vagaries of politicians.

Happy 250th!

Happy 250th!

I am hoping the disruption to the military in Iran will mean fewer Shaheds for Russia.

I have to say the nervous Nelly in me is worrying where it’s all going.

The Russians are making their own in Russia now. They might still be importing Iranian ballistic missiles.

That’s quite reasonable. Anytime a conflict like this goes kinetic it’s cause for concern. As the great philosopher Mike Tyson once said, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.

What strikes me is how badly the Iranians underestimated Trump and the Israelis. Announcing that they were going to open a new enrichment site was beyond stupid.

One of the few things they offered the Iranian people was relatively security. Now the IAF flies unopposed over Iran.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-14-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces continue to make marginal territorial gains east of Novopavlivka as Russian forces attempt to advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and toward the settlement from three tactical directions.
• Ukrainian forces continue to conduct long-range strikes against Russia's defense industrial base.
• Ukraine and Russia conducted a fourth round of prisoner of war (POWs) exchanges on June 14, in accordance with the June 2 Ukrainian-Russian bilateral talks in Istanbul.
• Ukrainian forces advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced near Toretsk and Novopavlivka.

Hi

sorry to detail but what are people's feeling about the US getting directly involved in the Israel Iran conflict. My hunch at the moment is that the US with all its might may get involved in some capacity over the next couple of days (possibly to destroy Iranian missile sites of they continue to fire).

with Putin calling for de escalation he knows Iran is essentially an ally in its drone production and is trying to save an armanent stream.

I lived in Tehran for six months, work related, I traveled quite a lot Whilst I was there. I didn’t get any sense of animosity towards the authorities. Deeply anti western though, not personally but towards western authorities.
I really didn’t notice any prescence of security services either, it certainly wasn’t intrusive. Just my experience.

just popping in to say great In Moscow’s Shadow podcast this morning demystifying Russian power

That must have been a very interesting experience. In a number of ways; very different culture, a very religious culture, such an extraordinarily rich and deep history, and the anti-Western govt feeling.

I was basing my comment on the Mahsa Amini protests. The Dey protests seem (from what I understand) much less serious, but the Mahsa Amini ones seem to show a very deep repressed resentment of the highly authoritarian government in Iran.

It must be puzzling for the average Ukrainian to see British jets scrambled in support, when they've never seen one themselves.

I suspect the UK PM is indulging in gesture poIitics/bigging things up..

Israel sure as heck doesn't need the UKs protection on the form of the RAF, I suspect any RAF aircraft deployed to the Eastern Med in recent days are mainly there to help protect the UK Sovereign Base Areas on Cyprus and/or to help.with Royal Navy operations against the Houtis.

Edit to add: more mportantly don't forget the RAF actually has deployed in support of Ukraine in the last couple.of yeare, including Rivet Joint and Typhoon operations over the Black Sea.

Seen at one of the US protest marches

The Iranian missiles are on mobile launchers, so it's easier for Israel to attack them since they are so much closer to the region.

The one target they need us to attack for them is the nuclear enrichment site at Fordow, which is under a mountain. The only bombs big enough to be effective are too heavy to carry on the fighter jets Israel has, but American strategic bombers like the B-1, B-22, and B-52 can carry them.

Limited damage at Iran's Fordow nuclear site, Iranian official says - The US has greater capabilities for potentially destroying Fordow, since Washington has the 30,000-pound mega bunker buster MOAB ("Mother of All Bombs").

I suspect that the Iranians will be told that they can either dismantle the Fordow enrichment site or have it destroyed by the U.S.

with Putin calling for de escalation he knows Iran is essentially an ally in its drone production and is trying to save an armanent stream.

As I mentioned up thread, Russia is now making the Shahed style drones in Russia, and no longer needs to import them from Iran.

From 2,000 to 5,000: Russia Plans to Escalate Shahed Drone Production Against Ukraine