Ukraine Invasion: Part 57

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 57. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Watching happy TWZ videos on drone strikes on war planes. Like a reverse air show. Thanks for the links @MissConductUS

The drones seem to be aiming for the bit where the wing connects to the fuselage. I could be wrong.

The tyres on the planes are giving me slight trypophobia.

The drones seem to be aiming for the bit where the wing connects to the fuselage. I could be wrong.

They are indeed. Some of the videos show a red marker at that location to help the drone operator target it. The fuel tanks are in the wings. A small warhead going off in that section of the wing will start a very large fire. That's why so many of the Russian aircraft are burning so fiercely.

What do we think the Russian response is going to be to Operation Spiderweb?

Thanks for clarifying @MissConductUS that makes sense.

More drone attacks, fewer missile attacks.

Will they try to make a dramatic response? Possibly, but their options are limited. They might try to target Ukrainian political leadership more directly or increase cyber attacks.

There's a common misconception about war strategy and escalation, i.e. "don't piss them off" with an attack like this. They're already trying to kill you.

There's a common misconception about war strategy and escalation, i.e. "don't piss them off" with an attack like this. They're already trying to kill you.

Well indeed.

Considering what Russia has done with no provocation whatsoever, it hasn't left itself much room to escalate.

(Well, not within Ukraine. I suppose it could attack another country... but it's been threatening that anyway... also without provocation.)

Yep, they generaly appear to have been generally aiming for the inboard section of the wing (between the inner engine and the fuselage).

That makes sense because that's where some of, if not the, biggest fuel tanks are usually located. Get the fuel in that tank burning and amongst other things there's a fair chance you'll destroy the wing main spar (basically a girder that shares the aircraft weight across the wing...) and that will probably lead to a collapse of the wing.

Hit anywere else with a small warhead snd you might "only' punch a hole in the aircraft skin that can be repaired, similarly hitting the outboard wing sections might make a right mess but a mess that might be repairable.

The people who planned this had done their homework, and the drone operators had detailed briefings.

@notimagain thanks for the clear explanation. I presume a drone can only carry a relatively small payload. Hence it is important to find the archilles heel, so to speak.

Is the answer that if planes are to sit on the tarmac exposed because of the lack of hardened shelters, to not have fuel in their tanks?

Trouble with empty tanks is they can be almost as explosive as full ones,.if not more so, because you have an air/fuel vapour mix.....(cf. TWA 800).

There's no real way around the problem - if you have aircraft in the open they are very vulnerable, fuelled or.not.

I'm going to have another look at some of the videos because in hindsight I suspect the drone operators were canny enough to go for the.wings on the TU-95s, the big turboprops with big wing tanks, , but perhaps were more likely to land on the fuselage of the swing wing TU-22Ms because, if I recall things correctly they carry a lot of fuel in the fuselage.

Fuckwit! Showing gain he's not too bright.

The tyres on the planes are giving me slight trypophobia.

The irony about the tyres is that the Russians thought they would protect the planes from attack by disrupting image recognition software in advanced cruise missiles, which the Ukrainians don't have. Instead, they added more fuel for the fires once the wing tanks started burning. Tyres burn like the devil once you get them going.

Sun Tzu has the last word, as usual. His works have surely been translated into Ukrainian.

If your opponent is temperamental, seek to irritate him. Pretend to be weak, that he may grow arrogant. If he is taking his ease, give him no rest. If his forces are united, separate them. If sovereign and subject are in accord, put division between them. Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected

Attack him where he is unprepared, appear where you are not expected

It is incredible that Ukraine timed the attacks to happen almost all at the same time. The drones certainly appeared where there were not expected by them Russians. If the attacks took place at different times, that would alert the Russians to start protecting the assets in far off airbases. I am guessing warplanes have a pesky habit of simply taking off.

There must have been an element of luck as to which planes were present in those airfields at that time. As the drones are finite in number, I presume the drone operators would be choosing the highest value targets first and then co-ordinating the attacks so that they don't send two drones to one target if one would suffice. 'You take this one, that one's mine'.

Delighted at the thought that the tyres added fuel to the fire. Talk about the law of unintended consequences. Russians have not thought this through.

I would have thought it is possible to train AI to recognise tyres on weird aircraft shaped objects. The contrast is good. Seems almost like a bullseye.

Just musing here.

The drone operators were heavily trained to coordinate, yes.

I don't know in reality of the plane attack was such a good idea....

The conversation with Trump seems to suggest a Russian 'response ' to an attack on part of its nuclear deterence. Given Russia has a poor conventional means of response this may have just started to give the US a little bit of nerves about the nature of the 'response'.

Obviously Russia is constantly nuclear sabre rattling but I don't know if as Ukraine you want events like this that might make the US less likely to give support through a sense of apprehension.

I guess you have to weigh up the military gains of strikes against aircraft with the irritation the US probably feel with Ukraine at an attack which less face it if there was any slightest hint of NATO involvement might make things go this up.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/04/ukraine-russia-nuclear-war-fears

A little bit close?

So if Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine, would US turn a blind eye?

Wonder what China will think of that.

I think it’s unlikely that Putin would use a nuclear weapon to retaliate. The sequence of events that would follow would be too unpredictable and his position isn’t strong enough to control what comes next. It would also be an admission that he can’t win the war by conventional means.

That’s why he downplayed it domestically as a few aircraft set on fire. Escalating would be an admission that he’s losing. It would also hurt him with China and the global South.

Agree, nuclear response from Putin is unlikely, would cost him more than it would gain him.

Start using your dual role (those both conventional and nuclear capable) aircraft in a conventional role and they become a legit target in the conventional stage of any conflict and you can't start going around claiming they should be ring fenced.

That was an issue and a factor that had to be considered in Cold War planning by many air forces and no reason the same shouldn't apply now.

If Putin didn't want his Bears and Backfires targetting he shouldn't have used them as a means of lobbing missiles into Ukraine.

I don’t think a nuclear strike in response is very likely, although I have no doubt that whatever they do will be brutal and will kill civilians. As @MissConductUS says the risks far outweigh the gains. I wouldn’t be surprised though if they waggle their nuclear sabre and I suspect Putin will have hinted to Trump about the use of nuclear weapons. To be honest that may well be enough to prevent Trump having the balls or inclination to come down on Ukraine’s side. It’s that whole thing again of using your nukes successfully without actually having to fire them.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Ukraine passes (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-passes-budget-code-changes-to-implement-us-mineral-deal/) Budget Code changes to implement US mineral deal.
The legislation, supported by 309 members of parliament, enshrines financial provisions critical to executing the U.S.-Ukraine deal signed on April 30 and ratified by Kyiv on May 8.

⚡️ Ukraine, US plan to launch (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-aim-to-launch-mineral-investment-fund-by-years-end/) minerals investment fund by year's end.
"We discussed very concrete steps how to make this fund operational during this year," Ukrainian Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko said during a visit to Washington.

⚡️Trump urges Senate to postpone (kyivindependent.com/trump-urges-senate-to-postpone-vote-on-russia-sanctions-bill/) vote on Russia sanctions bill, Senator says.
U.S. President Donald Trump has asked the Senate to delay voting on a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill, Republican Senator Roger Wicker said on June 4.

⚡️Trump administration redirecting (kyivindependent.com/trump-administration-redirecting-anti-drone-tech-from-ukraine-to-us-forces-in-middle-east-wsj-reports/) anti-drone tech from Ukraine to US forces in Middle East, WSJ reports.
U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is redirecting anti-drone technology earmarked for Ukraine to its own troops based in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on June 4.

⚡️Russia seeks to deploy (kyivindependent.com/russia-seeks-to-deploy-10000-troops-to-transnistria-and-potentially-undermine-election-moldovan-pm-recean-says/) 10000 troops to Transnistria and potentially undermine election, Moldovan PM Recean says.
Russia aims to deploy 10,000 troops to Transnistria and install a pro-Kremlin government in Moldova to enable it, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean told the Financial Times in an interview published June 4.

⚡️ Russia impersonating (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-impersonating-ukraines-security-service-to-recruit-saboteurs-sbu-warns/) Ukraine's security service to recruit saboteurs, SBU warns.
Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) said this marks a notable escalation and shift in Russia’s recruitment strategy.

⚡️ Ukraine wouldn't launch Operation Spiderweb if Russia agreed to ceasefire, Zelensky says. (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-wouldnt-launch-operation-spiderweb-if-russia-agreed-to-ceasefire-zelensky-says/)
President Volodymyr Zelensky said that roughly half of the 41 Russian planes targeted in the attack on June 1 will be impossible to repair.
The rest will require significant time to be put back into service, he added.

⚡️Reuters: Ukraine struck fewer Russian bombers during Operation Spiderweb than estimated (kyivindependent.com/reuters-ukraine-struck-fewer-russian-bombers-during-operation-spiderweb-than-estimated-us-officials-claim/), US officials claim.
Two U.S. officials told Reuters on June 4 that Ukraine struck as many as 20 Russian military aircraft during Operation Spiderweb, destroying around 10 of them.
The claims stands in contrast with estimates made by Ukraine's security service (SBU) which claimed more than 40 aircraft were hit in the June 1 attack.

⚡️ Putin's 'disregard (kyivindependent.com/putins-disregard-for-troops-highlighted-as-russian-losses-approach-1-million-csis-report-shows/)' for troops highlighted as Russian losses approach 1 million, CSIS report shows.
The total number of military casualties on both sides is nearing 1.4 million, including approximately 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed or injured.

⚡️ Russia strikes Ukrainian military training unit in Poltava Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-ukrainian-military-training-unit-in-poltava-oblast-military-says/), military says.
Russia launched a missile attack against a military training facility in Poltava Oblast on June 4, resulting in injuries, the Ground Forces' press service reported.

"Thanks to timely and carefully detailed security measures... the worst has been avoided," the press service said, saying that no soldiers have been killed in the attack.

⚡️Ukraine's SBU releases exclusive footage (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-sbu-releases-exclusive-footage-of-operation-spiderweb-targeting-russias-strategic-aircraft/) of Operation Spiderweb targeting Russia's strategic aircraft (VIDEO).

⚡️ Ukraine plans to bring home 500 POWs (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-bring-home-500-pows-from-russia-in-weekend-prisoner-swap-zelensky-says/) in next prisoner swap with Russia, Zelensky says.

⚡️ US hasn't decided yet on new Ukraine aid, focuses on peace, NATO envoy says (kyivindependent.com/us-hasnt-decided-on-new-ukraine-military-aid-focuses-on-peace-deal-nato-envoy-says/).
U.S. Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker stressed that Washington counts on European leadership in providing Ukraine with the resources needed to achieve a lasting peace, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported.

⚡️Putin 'will have to respond' (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-will-have-to-respond-to-ukraines-attack-on-russian-bombers-trump-says-after-call-with-kremlin-chief/) to Ukraine's attack on Russian bombers, Trump says after call with Kremlin chief. 
Trump said he spoke to Putin over the phone for an hour and 15 minutes on June 4 and that it was "a good conversation, but not a conversation that will lead to immediate peace."

⚡️Putin stays silent on Ukraine’s drone attack (kyivindependent.com/putin-stays-silent-on-ukraines-strikes-that-hit-41-russian-bombers-cause-7-billion-in-damage/) that hit 41 Russian bombers, caused $7 billion in damage.
Russian President Vladimir Putin did not mention Ukraine’s recent drone strikes that destroyed dozens of Russian strategic bombers during a televised cabinet meeting on June 4.

⚡️Zelensky to consider allowing (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-consider-allowing-private-army-formations-after-latest-ultimatums-from-russia/) private army formations after latest ultimatums from Russia.
[He] said in a briefing on June 4 that he may consider allowing the creation of private armies in Ukraine.
His comment came as a reaction to one of the points in the latest Russian memorandum, which calls for Ukraine to eliminate “nationalist formations” and private military companies.

Russia launched approximately 48,600 aerial attacks towards Ukraine since the start of 2025, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 4.

⚡️Putin tells new pope Kyiv seeks to escalate war (kyivindependent.com/putin-tells-new-pope-kyiv-seeks-to-escalate-war-urges-vatican-support-for-moscow-linked-church-in-ukraine/), urges Vatican support for Moscow-linked church in Ukraine.

⚡️Russian missile, drone attack on Kharkiv injures (kyivindependent.com/russia-missile-drone-attacks-on-kharkiv-injures-17-including-2-children/) 17, including 2 children.

⚡️ 5 killed, 6 injured in Russian drone strike (kyivindependent.com/5-killed-6-injured-in-russian-drone-strike-on-chernihiv-oblast/) on Chernihiv Oblast.
According to Chernihiv Oblast Governor Viacheslav Chaus, at least six Iranian-designed Shahed-136 drones were used in the assault.

⚡️ 8 killed, 46 injured in Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/8-killed-46-injured-in-russian-attacks-on-ukraine-over-past-day/) on Ukraine over past day.
According to Ukraine’s Air Force, Russia launched 103 drones overnight, including Iranian-designed Shahed-type suicide drones and one Iskander-M ballistic missile.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 39m
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — JUN 5, 2025
■ Engagements slightly above average, casualties dip below it
■ Relatively few equipment losses; 4 MLRS hit
■ Batch of visually confirmed losses: 1.7× 🇷🇺/🇺🇦 (1.4× over the past 30 days)
■ Fewer strikes on both sides

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🕸 NATO considers the SBU operation against Russian strategic aviation airfields to be highly successful, a representative of the Alliance leadership told reporters in Brussels.
He clarified that the assessment is based on NATO’s own intelligence, not Ukrainian figures, though the conclusions largely align.
“We see that at least 40 aircraft were damaged. From 10 to 13 were completely destroyed,” he stated.
Among the damaged aircraft, NATO identified 15 Tu-95 strategic bombers, 20 Tu-22s, and at least one A-50 early warning and control aircraft — a type of which Russia has only a few in service.

Ukraine is ready to exchange prisoners of war this Saturday and Sunday, but has not yet received the necessary lists from Russia, President Zelenskyy said.

Washington’s decision on Ukraine’s irreversible path to NATO remains in force — this long-standing commitment has not changed, said NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
However, he stressed that Ukraine was not promised NATO membership as part of any peace agreement.

Defense Minister Umerov summarized the outcomes of the 28th Ramstein meeting:
According to him, participating countries pledged the following support to Ukraine:
🇬🇧 United Kingdom — £350 million for the purchase of 100,000 drones in 2025
🇩🇪 Germany — A previously announced €5 billion military aid package, which includes:
• Long-range weapons to be produced in Ukraine
• Air defense systems
• Other weapons and ammunition
🇳🇱 Netherlands — A €400 million package for various vessels and naval drones
🇧🇪 Belgium —
• €1 billion annually until 2029
• Transfer of a mine countermeasure ship
🇳🇴 Norway —
• $700 million for drones
• $50 million for the NSATU Trust Fund (NATO initiative to support Ukraine’s security and training)
🇨🇦 Canada — $45 million for:
• Drones
• Electronic warfare systems
• IT solutions
• Coyote and Bison armored vehicles
🇸🇪 Sweden — €440 million for international programs to procure:
• Artillery ammunition
• Drones
• Other types of weapons

Germany is actively looking for additional Patriot systems for Ukraine and is ready to purchase them for transfer to Kyiv, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said.
He noted that Germany has already handed over a quarter of its own Patriot systems and cannot provide more.
“We have been actively working on this for months. I made it clear to my colleagues last week that we are unable to give more systems. But we are appealing to the United States and other allies to provide Patriot systems or similar systems.

Our support for Ukraine continues in full force! I am announcing a €400 million maritime security package, including over 100 high-speed vessels and dozens of naval drones. This is essential to stop Russian attacks on the sea and rivers and to protect trade routes, — Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has approved the use of a drone armed with a shotgun.
The UAV is capable of engaging enemy drones or personnel in both automatic and manual modes. It features an automatic target recognition system and can determine the optimal firing distance.

Russia plans to deploy 10,000 troops near Ukraine’s border in the occupied Transnistrian region, Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean said in an interview with the Financial Times.
He warned that Russian intelligence is preparing to interfere in Moldova’s September parliamentary elections in an attempt to install a pro-Russian government. According to Recean, Moscow is actively spreading propaganda online, financing political parties and even individual voters.
In 2024 alone, Russia spent the equivalent of 1% of Moldova’s GDP on influence operations.
“You can imagine what a lever of influence and pressure on Ukraine a 10,000-strong army on its southeastern border will be,” he said, adding that such a force would also be close to Romania, a NATO member.
Currently, the Russian contingent in Transnistria numbers around 1,500—mostly local recruits. Since the region is landlocked, Russia has no way to reinforce it with additional troops at this time.

A “Shahed” drone that failed to detonate in Kharkiv had a warhead weighing 50 kilograms, according to explosives technicians.

New satellite images of attacked aircraft at the Ivanovo, Dyagilevo, and Olenya airfields have appeared.
OSINT analysts report several damaged A-50s at Ivanovo, with at least one confirmed destroyed. No significant damage was recorded at Dyagilevo. However, at least four Tu-95MS bombers were destroyed and one An-12 transport aircraft damaged at the Olenya airfield.

🇫🇷🇺🇦 French Mirage 2000 fighters flew over the Black Sea, tracing a route in the shape of the Ukrainian Trident — a symbolic gesture of solidarity with Ukraine.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian delegation warned US that Putin‘s forces are preparing major advances (www.kyivpost.com/post/53987) into next year, including an attempt to cut off Black Sea access.

Ukraine seeks urgent support to boost air defense (www.kyivpost.com/post/53987) after Trump says peace not “immediate”.

Russia’s former defense minister, Shoigu, has arrived in North Korea (www.kyivpost.com/post/53932) for talks with leader Kim Jong Un. [yesterday]

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed to “unconditionally support” Russia (www.kyivpost.com/post/53982) in its war against Ukraine and said he expected Moscow to emerge victorious.

Ukraine’s HUR hacked into Russia’s UAC Tupolev (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/53946), took 4.4GB of secret data on personnel, procurement and strategic bombers, and left an owl clutching a warplane in its talons on the company’s website.

Putin rejected Ukraine’s offer to hold high-level talks.
“The blowing up of bridges in the Kursk and Bryansk regions are acts of terrorism. The decision to carry them out was made in Ukraine at the highest political level.
So how can we negotiate with terrorists? Why reward them by halting combat operations?” he said.

Odesa Black Sea Security Forum Highlights: The US’s Interests in the Black Sea region. (https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/53954)

Nuke talks flare after Ukraine’s “Spiderweb” operation: Top UK general warns Putin could resort to tactical nukes (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/53939) after $7B drone assault wipes out Russian bombers.

The US Embassy warns Americans in Ukraine to brace for Russian airstrikes.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Germany will fund the production of long-range weapons in Ukraine.
He stated that the first systems could be deployed to the Ukrainian Armed Forces within just a few weeks.
“We have also agreed to continue supplying air defense systems, weapons, and ammunition. And we are funding — which is becoming increasingly important at this stage of the war — repair facilities in Ukraine, as well as a significant portion of satellite communications,” the minister said.

Trump is frustrated with both Putin and Zelensky — but especially hostile toward the Ukrainian president, reports The New York Times.
According to the paper, Trump has repeatedly referred to Zelensky in conversations with his advisers as a “bad guy” who is pushing the world toward nuclear war. At other times, however, he has admitted to understanding Zelensky’s actions.
At the same time, Trump has shown a more respectful attitude toward Putin. He has considered imposing additional sanctions on Russia but has so far refrained from doing so.

🇺🇸 The U.S. has redirected missile components originally intended for Ukraine to its own troops in the Middle East, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing an internal memo.
According to the publication, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered that detonators for missiles — initially purchased for Ukraine — be allocated to American forces in the Middle East. The Pentagon deemed the U.S. military’s need for these fuses an “urgent issue identified by the Secretary of Defense.”
Ukrainian forces had been using the missile fuses in ground-based air defense systems to counter Russian drones. The Pentagon had previously emphasized their effectiveness. A key component is the proximity fuse, which triggers the explosion when the missile approaches a drone.

❗️Russia is bringing in intact aircraft to replace damaged ones in an attempt to downplay the scale of losses to its strategic aviation after Ukraine’s strikes.
Sources from Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) told Babel that the Russians are transporting undamaged aircraft to the airfields where equipment was destroyed, aiming to conceal the real extent of the damage in satellite images.
OSINT analysts documented how, on one of the targeted airfields, a burned-out Tu-95 bomber was visible in satellite imagery dated June 2. But by June 4, a fully intact Tu-95 had been placed in the exact same spot—despite scorched tarmac still visible beneath it.
▪️On June 1, the SBU carried out the “Spiderweb” special operation, striking multiple strategic aviation airfields deep inside Russia. Ukraine claims to have damaged or destroyed 41 Russian aircraft.
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/31774

Five people were killed in a Russian drone attack on Pryluky in the Chernihiv region.
Among the dead are two women and a one-year-old child, found beneath the rubble. Six others were injured and taken to hospital.

During the conversation, they discussed the “recent attacks from both sides,” including Ukraine’s strikes on Russian strategic aviation. According to Trump, Putin expressed his intention to respond to these attacks. [The demented bull in a chinashop strikes again]

⚡️Trump urges Senate to postpone (kyivindependent.com/trump-urges-senate-to-postpone-vote-on-russia-sanctions-bill/) vote on Russia sanctions bill, Senator says.
U.S. President Donald Trump has asked the Senate to delay voting on a bipartisan Russia sanctions bill, Republican Senator Roger Wicker said on June 4.

Of course he has 🤬