China have set up a digital yuan based on Bitcoin that bypasses SWIFT, traders and businesses can trade.
@HawaiiWake this made me realise that I know nothing about e-currencies. I went to ChatGPT for a summary then followed it up by asking for a prediction that takes account of Trump's current tariff disruption to world economies.
Prediction: The Fragmented Financial Future (2025–2035)
🌐 1. Multipolar Financial Systems Replace the Dollar-Centric Model
- The US dollar will remain dominant, but its monopoly on global trade and finance will erode.
- The digital yuan becomes a preferred trade currency within parts of Asia, Africa, and the Global South, especially where Chinese infrastructure projects (like Belt & Road) operate.
- Tariffs under Trump taught many nations how vulnerable they are to US economic pressure — this accelerates interest in alternatives to USD-anchored systems.
2. Two (or More) Financial Internets Emerge
- Think of it like the splinternet, but for money:
- One orbiting the US/EU, with digital dollar/euro, SWIFT, etc.
- Another orbiting China, with the e-CNY, mBridge, UnionPay systems, etc.
- Possibly a third BRICS-bloc system with digital rubles, rupees, and a shared cross-border settlement layer.
- Cross-border trade becomes technically more complex, but politically safer for countries avoiding US or Chinese pressure.
3. Nations Prioritize ‘Currency Sovereignty’ Like Energy Security
- The Trump tariffs forced countries to rethink dependency — on the US dollar, US tech, US trade routes.
- Countries increasingly build or join CBDC networks to control their own economic destiny, just like they diversify energy supply chains.
- Digital currencies become a key part of national security planning.
4. SWIFT’s Influence Declines, but Doesn’t Die
- SWIFT adapts, but loses dominance in cross-border trade.
- It will still be used in Western-aligned countries, but alternatives like mBridge, RippleNet, or other blockchain-based systems gain real traction.
- Expect even US allies to hedge their bets — using both SWIFT and non-SWIFT systems, just in case.
5. Trade Wars Go Digital
- Future "sanctions" won’t just be about goods, but access to financial networks.
- Countries might cut access to their digital currencies the way they used to cut off SWIFT or impose tariffs.
- Example: A country using e-CNY could geofence or freeze wallets for non-compliant trade partners. Same with a digital dollar.
Bottom Line
Trump’s tariffs were a wake-up call: economic power can be used as a weapon. The digital yuan is part of China's answer — a way to bypass US financial power, control its own destiny, and export a new model of global finance.
By 2030, expect a world where:
- Dollar dominance is dented, not destroyed.
- Multiple financial systems compete, not just collaborate.
- And countries increasingly use digital currency infrastructure as geopolitical leverage.
It gives me much food for thought. Are Trump's tariffs then a last gasp effort to stop China's increasing geopolitical influence?