Ukraine Invasion: Part 56

[MagicFox]

The (free) world has gone mad. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Well said. The America under Biden seems a world away from the current administration. Wishing him and his family strength for the road ahead.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-18-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces conducted the largest single drone strike of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18 — in disregard of US President Donald Trump's calls for Russia to stop long-range strikes against Ukraine, particularly against Kyiv Oblast.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to project Russia's military strength ahead of US President Donald Trump’s scheduled phone call with Putin on May 19.
• Reported support within the Russian military and society for continuing the war until Russia achieves its original war aims and territorial demands reflects the success of the Kremlin's years-long narrative efforts to justify a protracted war effort.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues efforts to negotiate a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Toretsk.

Live Ukraine:

🇷🇴🇵🇱 Presidential elections are taking place in Romania and Poland.

On Sunday, May 18, Romania is holding the second round of its presidential race. The main contenders are centrist and Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan, and far-right candidate George Simion, who is banned from entering Ukraine and Moldova.

In Poland, the first round of voting is underway. Thirteen candidates are running for president. The frontrunners are pro-European Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, historian Karol Nawrocki, and libertarian Sławomir Mentzen, who is known for his anti-Ukrainian stance.

🔹 President Zelensky and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance shook hands during the inauguration mass of the new Pope, Leo XIV, at the Vatican.

Zelensky and Vance last met at the White House in February, when a dispute between them broke out over Russia’s war against Ukraine.

❗️HUR: Russia plans a “combat training” launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile on the night of May 19

According to Ukrainian intelligence, the RS-24 missile from the Yars system, equipped with a training warhead, is set to be launched from an area near the settlement of Svobodny in Russia’s Sverdlovsk region. The missile has a range of 10,000 km.

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (HUR) described the planned launch as an act of intimidation and a show of demonstrative pressure on Ukraine, as well as on the EU and NATO.

🔸 On May 18, 1944, the Soviet regime began the genocide of the Crimean Tatar people. Nearly 200,000 individuals — the entire Crimean Tatar population — were deported to remote regions of the USSR

Between a quarter and half of them — the exact number is unknown — died in the first years following the deportation.

In the resettlement areas, local populations were incited against the Crimean Tatars to provoke conflict between communities.

It wasn’t until the 1980s that Crimean Tatars were able to begin returning to their homeland.

Eternal memory to the victims.

🔹 Zelensky and the Ukrainian delegation meet Pope Leo XIV for the first time

President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed gratitude to the Pontiff for the audience.

“We thank the Vatican for its willingness to serve as a platform for direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. We are ready for dialogue in any format for the sake of real results. Thank you for supporting Ukraine and for your clear voice in defense of a just and lasting peace,” Zelensky wrote.

🇺🇦🇺🇸 In Rome, the Ukrainian delegation led by President Zelensky met with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio to discuss the negotiations in Istanbul.

The parties also addressed sanctions against Russia, bilateral trade, defense cooperation, the situation on the front line, a future prisoner exchange, and steps toward achieving peace.

▪️On May 16, Istanbul hosted the first direct Ukraine-Russia negotiations since 2022. President Zelensky emphasized that the Kremlin had sent a low-level delegation without the authority to make any decisions.

🇩🇰 Artillery systems and ammunition: Denmark announces new aid package for Ukraine.

The package, worth approximately €546 million, also includes equipment for combat aircraft and the expansion of the training program for Ukrainian troops. The assistance will be delivered gradually between 2025 and 2028.

🇭🇺Thousands protest in Hungary against bill resembling Russia’s ‘foreign agents’ law

According to the draft legislation, the government would be able to restrict or even ban the activities of media outlets and NGOs that receive foreign funding and are deemed to “threaten the country’s sovereignty.”

The bill was introduced in parliament by the ruling Fidesz party.

One of the protest organizers, Jakob Tóth, said today that the bill is “nothing less than a threat to people’s ability to freely express their opinions.” According to media reports, around 10,000 people took to the streets in Budapest.

🇫🇮 Finnish president tried to convince Trump that Russia is no longer a “great power”

According to President Alexander Stubb, Trump’s worldview still largely reflects the 19th-century notion of great powers.

In a recent conversation, Stubb tried to explain to Trump that Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s, that despite aiming to strip Ukraine of its independence three years ago, Moscow has only managed to seize less than 1% more territory this year, that Russia’s interest rate exceeds 20%, and its reserves are nearly depleted. Based on this, he argued, Russia can no longer be considered a true “great power.”

▪️Stubb is one of the few European leaders said to hold influence over the U.S. president. As The New York Times previously reported, Finland’s president possesses several traits that help him connect with Trump: he plays golf well, studied in the U.S., calls himself an “American fan,” is athletic and tall — and knows how to deliver key messages wrapped in diplomatic language.

🇵🇱 Poland Holds First Round of Presidential Elections — Initial Exit Polls Released

In the first round, pro-European Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski came out on top with 30.8% of the vote. Historian Karol Nawrocki followed closely with 29.1%, securing a spot in the runoff.

🇺🇸 Joe Biden Diagnosed with Cancer

The New York Times reports that President Joe Biden has been diagnosed with a serious but treatable form of prostate cancer. His family is currently consulting with medical professionals regarding treatment options.

🇷🇴 Nicușor Dan Elected New President of Romania

After counting 100% of the ballots, pro-European candidate Nicușor Dan won 53.6% of the vote, defeating far-right candidate George Simion, who received 46.4%.

More than 6.1 million Romanians voted for Dan, while Simion secured around 5.3 million votes. Simion conceded defeat, despite having previously urged his supporters to take to the streets in protest.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky congratulated Nicușor Dan on his victory, expressing hope for the continued development of the strategic partnership between Ukraine and Romania.

▪️Nicușor Dan supports Ukraine, pledges to increase Romania’s defense spending, and promises to combat corruption.

On the night of May 19, Ukrainian air defense forces neutralized 76 drones — 41 were shot down and 35 were jammed by electronic warfare systems.

In total, Russia launched 112 drones across Ukraine. The attack affected the Kharkiv, Sumy, Donetsk, Cherkasy, and Kirovohrad regions.

🇦🇺 Australia has begun shipping the promised Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that a batch of used M1A1 tanks is already on its way to Ukraine — 49 units in total.

The White House is reportedly unhappy with the decision. Although Washington officially authorized the transfer, U.S. officials are said to be privately disappointed by the move.

Guardian's just published a time for the Trump/Putin call. 5PM Moscow, which I make 3PM UK.
Kremlin says Trump and Putin to talk at 5pm Moscow time on Monday, RIA reports
The Kremlin said that Russian president Vladimir Putin will hold a call with US president Donald Trump at 5pm Moscow time (10am EDT) on Monday, state news agency RIA reported.
RIA cited Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as saying that the two leaders’ discussion of Ukraine would take into account the results of talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul last week.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA – MAY 19, 2025
■ Engagements up but fewer casualties per engagement
■ Modest land-based equipment losses, close to 120 drones intercepted
■ There have been relatively few 🇺🇦 strikes four days in a row which affects the strike ratio

United 24 Media:

🔹 EU Commissioner for Defence and Space Andrius Kubilius stated that the European Union will overcome any obstacles Hungary and Slovakia might create for EU–Ukraine cooperation.

“This is a long-known problem, and I am fully convinced that the European Union will find a way to overcome, in particular, Viktor Orbán’s veto on Ukraine’s European integration,” he said in an interview with Studio Zakhid.

Kubilius also emphasized that despite populist rhetoric or statements that seem to support Russian policy, there are signals worth noting. For example, Hungary has asked the European Commission for permission to increase its defense spending by 1.5%.

“This shows a desire to strengthen their own defense. And the logical question is: against what threat? It seems that Budapest also realizes the Russian threat is real — not just for the Baltics or Poland, but also for Hungary, Slovakia or Romania,” Kubilius said.

“We understand their position well, and of course, we will find ways to overcome any obstacles they may try to create. The future of Europe and the strengthening of our common security is possible only with Ukraine,” he concluded.

🔸President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed gratitude to Pope Leo XIV for his words during today’s solemn mass.

“We are grateful to Pope Leo XIV for his special words at today’s solemn mass about the need for a just peace and for his attention to Ukraine, our people,” Zelenskyy said.

“We welcome the beginning of such a special mission. And may prayers for a just peace and a dignified life for all people be heard,” he added.

🔹 Russia plans to conduct a demonstrative “training and combat” launch of the RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile on Monday night, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) reported.

According to the HUR, the purpose of the launch is to intimidate Ukraine and exert pressure on EU and NATO member states, viewing it as part of Russia’s nuclear blackmail tactics.

🔸 I will be speaking on the phone with Putin on Monday at 10:00 a.m. And then there will be a conversation with President Zelenskyy, — US President Donald Trump.

🇩🇰 Denmark announces $628 million long-term military support package for Ukraine

As part of the package, Ukraine will receive additional artillery guns, as well as ammunition financed under the so-called Czech initiative.

Additionally, Ukraine will receive equipment for combat aircraft, an expansion of the training base, as well as other assistance.

🔹 Good meeting with US Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Rome, — President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“We discussed the negotiations in Istanbul, where the Russians sent a low-level delegation that had no decision-making authority.
I confirmed Ukraine’s readiness for real diplomacy and stressed the importance of an early, complete and unconditional ceasefire.

We also touched on the need for sanctions against Russia, bilateral trade, defense cooperation, the situation on the battlefield, and the future exchange of prisoners.
And, of course, we discussed our joint steps to achieve a just and lasting peace.”

🔸 Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin to Launch Patriot and HIMARS Missile Production in Europe, — Hartpunkt

German concern Rheinmetall and American Lockheed Martin are creating a joint venture to produce ATACMS, GMLRS, Hellfire, JAGM and PAC-3 missiles. Production will be deployed in Europe to reduce dependence on supplies from the United States and speed up supplies.

Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger said that the company plans to control 60% of the joint venture. The capacity will allow the production of up to 10,000 missiles per year. The launch of production is scheduled for 2026–2027.

Particular emphasis is on long-range missiles, which are needed by Ukraine and European countries. Lockheed and Rheinmetall are awaiting approval from the governments of the United States and Germany.

🔹 The new president of Romania will be the pro-European Nicos Dan.

With nearly 99% of the votes counted, Dan leads his opponent Gheorghe Simion by 898,000 votes. Only 850,000 votes remain uncounted, meaning Simion cannot close the gap even if he receives all of them.

🔸 The International Association of Ultramarathon Runners (IAU) refused to register a Russian athlete’s world record after he finished the race with the Russian flag.

Ivan Zaborskiy won the prestigious “Six Days of France” ultramarathon on May 4, covering 1047.5 kilometers and surpassing the previous record of 1045 kilometers.

The IAU emphasized that while Russian and Belarusian athletes may compete under a neutral flag, any performance under the national flag of these countries will not be recognized or recorded as an official achievement.

🔹 The Kremlin has confirmed that a telephone conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will take place today, calling the dialogue “important.”

At the same time, the Kremlin reiterated that Russia “will achieve the goals” of its so-called “special military operation,” though it added that “it is preferable to achieve them through political and diplomatic means.”

🔸 Poland’s National Electoral Commission has announced the final results of the first round of the presidential election:

• Rafal Trzaskowski, Mayor of Warsaw and candidate of the ruling party, received 31.36% of the vote.
• Karol Nawrocki, director of the Institute of National Remembrance, came in second with 29.54%.

The two will compete in a runoff on June 1.

Voter turnout reached 67.31%, surpassing the 64.51% turnout in the first round of the 2020 election.

🔹 EU and UK Reach Preliminary Defence and Security Deal Ahead of Summit — Reuters

The European Union and Britain have reached a preliminary agreement on defence and security cooperation, opening the door for British firms to bid for major EU defence contracts, Reuters reports.

The draft Joint Memorandum of Understanding has been shared with EU governments in Brussels and is now undergoing approval by all 27 EU member states.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President Antonio Costa will meet in London today for a joint summit.

“My understanding is that all member states seem happy with what has been put on the table as the summit is about to start,” said one diplomat, noting that formal written approval is expected to proceed smoothly.

The deal represents the most significant reset in UK-EU relations since Brexit, with both sides aiming to strengthen cooperation in trade, defence, and security.

“Everything is now set for a very successful and constructive reset of relations, from which both the EU and the UK will benefit,” a source said.

🔸 President Zelenskyy Speaks with New Romanian President Nicușor Dan, Invites Him to Ukraine

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a phone conversation with newly elected Romanian President Nicușor Dan, extending an invitation to visit Ukraine and discussing opportunities for an in-person meeting in the near future.

“It is very important that Romania develops and that we all cooperate together in our region and in Europe,” Zelenskyy said.

He emphasized respect for the Romanian people’s choice and Romania’s strategic role in regional security.

“We are very grateful for the contribution to protecting the lives of our people. It is important that support for Ukraine continues. Romania understands how important the fight for freedom and justice is,” Zelenskyy added.

❗️Trump will make public statements following a planned conversation with Putin and Zelenskyy, the White House announced.

Kyiv Post:

Ukraine talks have reached a dead end — US Vice President Vance

He also warned that if Russia refuses to negotiate, the US will be forced to say that “this is not our war.”

Kyiv Independent:

⚡️ France rejects Telegram CEO's accusations of Romanian election meddling.

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov claimed that a "Western European government" requested the company to "silence conservative voices in Romania" ahead of a key presidential election.

⚡️ Russia detains 8 teenagers accused of plotting attacks on police during Victory Day.

Russian authorities have detained nine residents of Stavropol Krai, accusing them of plotting an attack on police officers during May 9 celebrations on behalf of a "terrorist group," the Federal Security Service (FSB) said on May 19.

Eight of the detainees are minors, according to the Russian Investigative Committee.

⚡️ Finland to send ammunition to Ukraine using proceeds from frozen Russian assets.

Under the agreement, Finland will provide 90 million euros (approximately $100 million) worth of heavy ammunition procured from domestic suppliers.

⚡️ Commander of Ukraine's 59th Brigade replaced, media reports.

Lieutenant Colonel Bohdan Shevchuk was dismissed as the commander of the 59th Brigade of the Unmanned Systems Forces and replaced by Colonel Oleksandr Sak, Ukrainska Pravda reported on May 18, citing its sources in the brigade.

⚡️ Update: Liberal Trzaskowski to face conservative Nawrocki in runoff during tight Polish presidential race, final results confirm.

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski came first in Poland’s presidential election with 31.4% of the vote, followed by conservative Karol Nawrocki with 29.5%, final results show.

⚡️ Russia declares Amnesty International an 'undesirable organization.'

Russia's Prosecutor General's Office has designated Amnesty International as an "undesirable organization," effectively banning the global human rights group from operating in the country.

⚡️ Ukrainian detained in Poland for allegedly smuggling migrants across Belarus border.

Polish officers stopped a Mazda car for inspection and discovered the 36-year-old Ukrainian woman behind the wheel, along with five Afghan nationals in the vehicle, the Polish police said.

⚡️ EU members preliminarily agree to launch 150-billion-euro defense fund, media reports.

The new mechanism, proposed by the European Commission in March, will allow member states to borrow money from the EU to purchase weapons and military equipment.

⚡️ EU coordinating next Russia sanctions with US, Germany says.

Washington's participation in a potential sanctions package would be "very central," German government spokesperson Stefan Cornelius said.

⚡️ 'Need to put pressure on Russia to end the war,' Zelensky says hours before Trump-Putin call.

President Volodymyr Zelensky met with top officials on May 19 to evaluate the outcome of Ukraine-Russia negotiations held in Istanbul last week, the president announced on Telegram.

The European Union and Britain have reached a preliminary agreement on defence and security cooperation, opening the door for British firms BAE Systems to bid for major EU defence contracts, Reuters reports.

🤐

What's a bit odd about the news is that he's a quite an advanced stage, so he's had this cancer for many years. It's odd that he never had a PSA test while he was President, which would have picked it up much earlier.

I said this on another thread (less eloquently) and was shot down. I had assumed as President he’d have had every test going.

The PSA test has a relatively high rate of false positives, but it's still fairly routine. My DH is in his 60s and gets it annually, along with a manual prostate exam. With a Gleason score of 9, his PSA readings would have been off the charts. Medical records for Bush, Obama and Trump show all had PSA tests done routinely. While a patient can decline the test, you'd think for the President they'd really push for it.

In better news, the Russians are losing access to their naval base at Tartus, Syria.

Another Blow to Putin, as Syria Rips Up Ports Agreement with Russia and Signs with UAE

And if you carefully weren't saying nothing, what would you be saying?

BAE have notoriously close links with UK MOD (via the ex-senior officers in the Board room) and UK Gov.

I'm sure nobody leant on the PM to try and make sure they got a slice of the new Euro defence fund...

:s

Here's a good opinion piece in Foreign Policy about how Putin has cornered himself in a war of choice that's not going well and the trends are against him.

He really has committed diplomatic malpractice by bombing civilians while talking about peace. He'll be at a million casualties soon, for a war of choice. Ukraine in no way threatened Russia. Oil prices are dropping, and the Russian economy is rubbish. It's not a pretty picture for Vlad.

Here's the text. I found a link that bypasses the paywall, but it's not working when I post it here.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is skilled at escaping the optics of defeat. He came to power in 2000, projecting authority in Russia’s ongoing war against the breakaway region of Chechnya, where Russia did over time prevail. He put himself forward as a decisive leader in Georgia (via the 2008 Russo-Georgian War), in Ukraine (via the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and full-scale invasion in 2022), and in Syria (via a Russian military incursion in 2015). In none of these theaters has Putin notched a lasting success. Georgia is up for grabs, and Russia’s presence in fading away in Syria, but Putin will accept no responsibility for setbacks on the global stage. He always acts the victor.

With Ukraine, Putin can orchestrate scenes of success. He did so on May 9—Victory Day in Russia, commemorating the Nazi surrender in 1945—standing shoulder to shoulder with Chinese President Xi Jinping. They watched Russian troops marching proudly by on Red Square, sending the message that Russia is not isolated; it is unvanquished. It is Ukraine, the Russian state media tells us, that will falter. It is Europe that cannot overcome its post-national anomie. It is the United States that has bowed to Russia, acknowledging that NATO expansion caused the war, that Ukrainian intransigence has perpetuated it, and that in 2022, when the war began, President Joe Biden was the doddering man who brought the world to the brink of World War III.

But for Russia, Ukraine is not Syria, and it is not Georgia. Syria was a far-away adventure where Russia’s retreat can be swept under the carpet. Georgia is stuck in a holding pattern, vacillating between Russia and the West, which is no disaster for Moscow—whereas Ukraine is a disaster for Moscow. In Ukraine, Russia’s military is stalled while deaths and casualties mount. Putin has no way out of the war—other than to admit a version of defeat. The Kremlin can try to hide the war’s misery from Russians but only to the extent that it can tell the war’s story. Putin cannot as effectively erase evidence of a faltering economy.

Nor can he offer Russians any coherent political promise other than endless Putinism. Slowly and not yet suddenly, Russia is starting to lose the war.
Long wars demand integrated efforts. Military aims rest on diplomatic capacity and economic heft, which in turn rest on political will. Russia is struggling in each of these domains. The problem for Putin is that the military and diplomatic challenges of the war compound one another, as do the economic and political challenges. Were the war going well or were it an obviously defensive war, diplomacy might be peripheral, uncertainty and economic hardship might be bearable, and political discontent could be put on hold. This was the Soviet Union in World War II. With his massive war against Ukraine, Putin is in almost the opposite position. Nor can he procrastinate by narrating his way out of this strategic cul-de-sac. With an autocrat’s toolkit, he can only postpone the eventual reckoning.

Russia faces two serious military dilemmas. One is its own inability to advance. In some technical sense, momentum is on Russia’s side, as it takes square miles of Ukrainian territory, but this momentum is going nowhere. For months, Russia has tried and failed to take the Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk. Its failure has been accompanied by enormous losses: an estimated 790,000 killed or injured since the beginning of the war (plus 48,000 missing), including more than 100,000 casualties this year alone. By the end of 2025, at this rate, Russia will have over a million casualties, and its strategic situation will not be any better than it was in 2022. Putin has no easy way to alter a trajectory that translates (if unaltered) into stalemate. Mostly war zones, the territories that Russia controls in Ukraine are of no material benefit to Russia.

Russia’s other military dilemma is Ukraine. When Russia failed to deliver a knock-out blow in 2022 and to split Ukraine down the middle, Putin had a choice between a reduced war and a war on civilians across Ukraine. He went with the war against civilians—not to be seen as backtracking and to compel Ukrainians to surrender. This decision also backfired. The brutality of the Russian occupation coupled with countless assaults on civilians and civilian infrastructure convinced most Ukrainians that they had to fight. Ukraine is poorer and smaller than Russia, not ideally suited to a war of attrition, and on the battlefield Ukraine is acting alone. These circumstances matter, of course, though not as much as Ukraine’s morale and its formidable ability to innovate (such as in drone warfare), which among other things is a function of Ukrainians’ morale.

Russia has ways to gain advantage in a long war of attrition. It could facilitate a U.S. withdrawal from the war, which would have a severe effect on Ukrainians’ morale, limit the day-to-day capabilities of the Ukrainian military and send a strong signal globally that Ukraine was unable to sustain its most important bi-lateral relationship. Were the United States to opt out, Russia could then try to pick off individual European states, pushing them either toward neutrality or toward active support for Russia in the war. By driving a wedge between the United States and Europe, Russia could do more than improve its position in Ukraine. It could move closer to its dream of a Russian sphere of influence in Europe and of a transatlantic alliance in utter disarray.

But Russia has mismanaged its diplomacy with the West. It squandered the opportunities presented by an avowedly pro-Russian Trump administration in February, March, and April, bombing its way past multiple cease-fires. This has pushed Trump toward Ukraine and Europe, and Moscow has found no way to separate Europe from Ukraine. Germany’s newly elected chancellor, Friedrich Merz, who has excellent relations with the United Kingdom, France, and Poland, is staunchly pro-Ukraine, and he has committed Germany to some half a trillion dollars in defense spending. Russian diplomacy cannot engineer a friendly or neutral West, not least because of the way Russia fights in Ukraine. Putin also prevents Russian diplomats from exploring the compromises that might save Russia from the wartime nightmare he has fashioned for his country.

Putin’s obsession with not losing in Ukraine has damaged the Russian economy. The sugar high of military spending is over, and growth has <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.ph/o/ROP3y/www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/04/27/vladimir-putins-money-machine-is-sputtering" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">dwindled from 5 percent at the war’s start to zero. An overheated labor market has inflation running at around <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.ph/o/ROP3y/www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-holds-key-rate-21-inflationary-pressure-remains-high-2025-03-21/" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">10 percent. Falling energy prices due to Trump’s burgeoning trade wars and China’s slumping economy could eviscerate Russia’s state budget, which relies heavily on the sale of gas and oil. Russians, who are far from going hungry, have to be asking themselves about the wisdom of their government at the moment, about higher prices and a grim economic horizon for the sake of a stalemated, counterproductive, and unnecessary war. The only thing more dangerous to a political leader than a war of choice is a war of choice that goes badly.

Putin has asked the Russian people to trust him on the war in Ukraine. Many have, and many do. Those who do not trust Putin might encounter the repressive tactics of a police state, although Russia is not totalitarian. Its social contract is a curious mix of mobilization for the war (in parts of the country) and disengagement from politics (in all of the country)—a largely apolitical society alleged to be fighting a holy war.

Real political power is concentrated in Putin’s hands. But his dictator’s prerogative makes him uniquely the man in charge, which is as much a vulnerability as it is a strength—a strength to the degree that he can win the war and a vulnerability to the degree that he is losing it. Perhaps for this reason, after years of silence on the topic, Putin has begun to <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.ph/o/ROP3y/newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/putin-suddenly-talks-about-potential-successor-1746370010.html" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">speak about a successor. As he himself may be aware, he has staked his political fortunes on a foolish war, and he is not winning.

BBC News:

• Russia and Ukraine will "immediately" start ceasefire negotiations, Donald Trump says after a two-hour call with Vladimir Putin
• The Russian leader says he is prepared to discuss "compromises" on Ukraine after a "frank conversation" with his American counterpart
• For Trump, who has grown visibly exasperated with President Putin in recent months, this is a high-stakes call, writes BBC's Bernd Debusmann Jr from the White House
• Unless the US president comes up with new levers of pressure on Russia, Putin has little to worry about, BBC's Vitaliy Shevchenko writes
• Ukrainian and Russian delegations failed to reach any deal during face-to-face talks in Istanbul on Friday

Yes, there is a lot of talk about this here with some unpleasant conclusions being drawn

It seems talk of immediate negotiations to reach a ceasefire is somewhat premature. Trump just hears what he wants to hear or Putin says one thing and does another - or both.

From The Guardian:

A two-hour-long phone call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin got a warm and rosy write-up from both sides, with Trump saying Russia was ready to “immediately” begin negotiations with Ukraine towards a ceasefire and Putin concurring: “We’re generally on the right track.”
But there seemed to be little of substance to come out of the conversation, with Putin refusing to agree to a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, which had been the aim of Trump’s call. The Russian president showed no signs of backing down from his maximalist demands towards Ukraine, saying that for Russia an end to the war depended on its “root causes” being addressed. These demands remain forcing Ukraine to demilitarise, cutting back its armed forces, barring it from receiving western military support, and imposing sweeping limits on its sovereignty. And despite Trump’s claim of Russia’s readiness to begin peace talks, the Kremlin later said no timeline for negotiations had been discussed.
Nonetheless European leaders welcomed Trump debriefing them following the call, with Volodymyr Zelenskyy saying a high-level meeting between Ukraine, Russia, the US, EU and UK was under consideration, and the Vatican being floated as a potential venue for Ukraine-Russia peace talks. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen welcomed Trump’s efforts and – in light of JD Vance’s earlier warning that the US was “more than open to walking away” from talks if significant progress isn’t made soon – stressed the importance of the US “staying engaged” on Ukraine.

Quelle surprise!

I saw that Vance said that the U.S.is going to normalize Russia's relationship with the rest of the world. I can't see that happening

Surely the "root cause" of the war is Putin

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-19-2025

Key Takeaways:

• US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a phone call on May 19 to discuss ceasefire and peace negotiations regarding Russia's war in Ukraine.
• Russia must explicitly acknowledge the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president, government, and constitution and Ukraine's sovereignty in order to engage in meaningful, good-faith negotiations.
• Russia must agree that ceasefire negotiations must precede peace settlement negotiations.
• Russia must show its willingness to make concessions of its own in any future bilateral negotiations, especially as the Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to expand its list of demands amid the peace talks. [None of the above]
• Russia reportedly continues to expand its military infrastructure along its border with Finland and Estonia, likely in preparation for future aggression against NATO.
• Ukraine's Western allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Borova and Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Novopavlivka.

for Russia an end to the war depended on its “root causes” being addressed.

Best way to address the root cause would be Putin's resignation and suicide.

Too easy a death for him. No. He needs to suffer before he dies.