Ukraine Invasion: Part 56

[MagicFox]

The (free) world has gone mad. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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It's going to be a very small fraction of the casualties and equipment losses inflicted by the Ukrainians. They won't be included in the figures because the Ukrainians will be unaware of it happening in most cases.

Im sure, heh, it was meant as a slightly dry comment.

But yesterday Rutte said that it's inevitable that Ukraine will become part of NATO, tho not as part of the settlement of this war. I think it's the first time any significant figure has said that.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Update: US State Department confirms (kyivindependent.com/rubio-witkoff-reportedly-to-visit-france/) Rubio, Witkoff trip to Paris for high level Ukraine talks

⚡️ Trump officials 'fed up' with Europe's efforts to strengthen Ukraine, Economist reports. (kyivindependent.com/trump-admin-fed-up-with-europes-efforts-to-strengthen-ukraine-economist-reports/)
Some Trump administration officials are dissatisfied with European countries' ongoing support for Ukraine, underscoring the growing rift between Washington and Europe, the Economist reported on April 15, citing undisclosed diplomatic sources.
Some Pentagon officials have even questioned an unspecified ally about why it continues sending military aid to Ukraine, the Economist reported.

⚡️ 'Significant progress' — Ukraine, US to conclude minerals deal (kyivindependent.com/significant-progress-ukraine-us-to-sign-memorandum-on-minerals-deal-deputy-pm-says/) in 'near future,' Deputy PM says.

⚡️ Ukraine seeks US support in regaining control of Zaporizhzhia (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-seeks-us-support-to-regain-control-of-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-launch-joint-energy-projects/) nuclear plant, joint energy projects.

⚡️Russia has violated (kyivindependent.com/russia-has-violated-energy-ceasefire-more-than-30-times-ukraine-says/) ‘energy ceasefire’ more than 30 times, Ukraine says.

⚡️ North Korea earns over $20 billion (kyivindependent.com/north-korea-earns-over-20-billion-aiding-russias-war-effort-report-says/) aiding Russia's war effort, report says.
A South Korean think tank suggests North Korea prefers "in-kind and technical assistance" that enhances its own defense industry and supports its long-term strategic goals.

⚡️EU warns (kyivindependent.com/eu-warns-serbia-not-to-attend-russias-victory-parade/) Serbia not to attend Russia's victory parade.

⚡️Update: Serbia's Vucic to attend (kyivindependent.com/eu-warns-serbia-not-to-attend-russias-victory-parade/) Moscow's May 9 victory parade despite EU pushback.

⚡️EU confirms (kyivindependent.com/eu-confirms-discussions-on-possible-deployment-of-military-advisors-to-ukraine/) discussions on possible deployment of 'military advisors' to Ukraine.

⚡️ EU fails to agree on sanctions on Russian LNG (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-fails-to-agree-on-santions-on-russian-lng-reuters-reports/), Reuters reports.
The EU has shelved the idea of banning Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) imports due to opposition from some members and uncertainty about alternative supplies, Reuters reported on April 16, citing undisclosed EU officials.

⚡️ Russia arms 'kamikaze' drones with chemical weapons (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-deploys-kamikaze-drones-with-chemical-weapons-ukraine-says/), Ukraine says.

⚡️Over 40% of Ukrainian forces' weapons domestically produced (kyivindependent.com/over-40-of-ukrainian-forces-weapons-domestically-produced-zelensky-says/), Zelensky says.

⚡️ Italy transfers (kyivindependent.com/italy-delivers-28-million-to-restore-ukraines-energy-system/) $28 million to restore Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

⚡️India targets (kyivindependent.com/india-targets-traditional-russian-arms-customers-with-cheap-loans-reuters-reports/) traditional Russian arms customers with cheap loans, Reuters reports.
India is developing a new strategy to boost its defense exports, offering long-term, low-cost loans through its state-owned Export-Import Bank to foreign buyers, including those traditionally reliant on Russian arms, Reuters reported on April 16, citing officials familiar with the plan.

⚡️Trump extends (kyivindependent.com/trump-extends-us-sanctions-on-russian-ships-for-another-year/) US sanctions on Russian ships for another year.

⚡️US shuts down office (kyivindependent.com/us-shuts-down-office-combating-russian-disinformation-rubio-says/) combating Russian disinformation, Rubio says.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced on April 16 the closure of the State Department’s office responsible for countering foreign disinformation, citing concerns about free speech and the rights of American citizens.

⚡️ Trump's DC attorney pick (kyivindependent.com/trumps-dc-attorney-pick-made-over-150-appearances-on-kremlin-media/) made over 150 appearances on Kremlin propaganda outlets.

⚡️Former Kursk Oblast governor arrested (kyivindependent.com/ex-kursk-oblast-governor-detained-due-to-embezzlement-in-fortifications-construction-on-border-with-ukraine/) for embezzlement in Ukraine border fortifications.

⚡️Number of fires at Russian railroads increases (kyivindependent.com/number-of-fires-at-russian-railroads-increases-in-march-military-intelligence-says/) in March, military intelligence says.

⚡️ Denmark to send unarmed soldiers (kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-send-unarmed-soldiers-to-ukraine-for-drone-warfare-training/) to Ukraine for drone warfare training.
The courses, expected to begin as early as this summer, will take place at training centers in western Ukraine and will not involve direct combat. [odd, I'd have thought Ukrainians could probably teach the Danish more, unless it's about a specific drone)

Kyiv’s fate is shaping how Tehran plays the nuclear game (kyivindependent.com/kyivs-fate-is-shaping-how-tehran-plays-the-nuclear-game/)

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones reportedly strike another Russian missile brigade linked to Sumy attack (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-ukrainian-drones-reportedly-strike-another-russian-missile-brigade-linked-to-sumy-attack/)

⚡️ SBU dismantles (kyivindependent.com/sbu-dismantles-russian-fsb-spy-ring-in-ukraine-detains-5-minors-among-agents/) suspected Russian spy ring, 5 minors among detainees.
The network operated across four regions and was planning to target residential areas and a Ukrainian military base with explosives, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said.

⚡️Ex-deputy head of Presidential Office charged (kyivindependent.com/ex-deputy-head-of-presidential-office-charged-with-new-offenses-including-money-laundering-bribery/) with new offenses, including money laundering, bribery.

⚡️ Top Kyiv official reportedly (kyivindependent.com/top-kyiv-official-reportedly-charged-over-illegal-border-crossing-schemes/) charged over illegal border crossing schemes.

⚡️Nearly 102,000 Russian soldiers killed (kyivindependent.com/over-101-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine-identified-by-media-investigation/) in Ukraine identified by media investigation.

⚡️ 5 killed, 68 injured in Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/5-killed-68-injured-in-russian-attacks-on-ukraine-over-past-day/) on Ukraine over past day.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

According to the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (HUR), North Korean soldiers may be taking part in Russia’s offensive operations in the Kharkiv and Sumy regions.
In an interview with Japan's NHK, HUR representative Andriy Chernyak stated that around 5,000 DPRK troops have already been killed in action in Ukraine, and approximately 6,000 more are currently stationed in Russia’s Kursk region, potentially preparing to be deployed further.
Chernyak noted changes in the tactics and training of these soldiers: they no longer advance in large groups, which previously made them easy targets for Ukrainian artillery. Instead, they now move in pairs or alone. The language barrier with Russian forces is reportedly not a problem, as North Korean troops simply receive their assignments and act on them without further interaction.

At the request of the Ukrainian government, the Japanese Ministry of Defense, together with the Japan Self-Defense Forces, has transferred 101 military vehicles to Ukraine by June 2024. These include Type 73 half-ton SUVs, HMV high-mobility vehicles, and PC065B material transport vehicles.
On April 10, six second-generation Type 73 SUVs arrived in Poland and were handed over to Ukraine.
In the future, Japan plans to deliver about 30 more vehicles. Tokyo will continue to support Ukraine in stopping Russian aggression and achieving lasting peace.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys has warned of a possible escalation in Russian attacks on Ukraine during the Easter period. Speaking during Holy Week, he expressed strong concern that Russia could “serve something even more terrible” on Easter, potentially marking a grim turning point.

[further info - this explains it]
The Danish Armed Forces plan to send their soldiers to Ukraine for training, according to Major General Peter Boysen, commander of the Danish Land Forces.
The troops will be unarmed and will come from various army regiments. Denmark is especially interested in gaining experience from Ukraine’s three-year war involving drone warfare on the front.

The number of wounded in the attack on Dnipro has risen to 30, including five children, according to the head of the Regional Military Administration, Serhiy Lysak. Sixteen people remain under medical supervision in hospitals, with one in serious condition.
Air defense forces shot down 10 Russian drones over the region.

Adriana Puszchak, originally from Drohobych, has made history by becoming Miss USA 2025. She is the first representative of Ukraine to ever win this title.

A photographer @sstenemes captured a stunning image of the full moon perfectly aligned behind Kyiv’s iconic Motherland Statue.

This morning, Russian troops attacked an ambulance in the Dnipro district of Kherson using a drone, resulting in injuries.
An explosive device was dropped from a UAV, damaging the ambulance and injuring two medical workers. A 65-year-old paramedic sustained an explosive injury along with shrapnel wounds to the arm and leg. The 61-year-old driver suffered an explosive injury, as well as head and pelvic trauma.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine ran a large-scale (www.kyivpost.com/post/50882) trial, organized by its Brave-1 technology cluster, that tested more than 70 robotic ground vehicles from 50 domestic manufacturers under simulated combat conditions with most performing better than anticipated.

Rheinmetall will complete construction of an ammunition plant in Ukraine by 2026, according to the company’s CEO, Armin Papperger.
He stated that while the initial plan was to produce 150,000 shells per year, output will be significantly increased.

On a secure site belonging (www.kyivpost.com/post/50896) to Ukraine’s Intelligence (HUR) in Kyiv, the directorate took delivery of a Sikorsky S-76 medical evacuation helicopter.
Kyiv Post was invited to attend the event, which took place in the presence of HUR Chief Budanov.

Russia’s gas giant (www.kyivpost.com/post/50909) is considering making household appliances using confiscated facilities from Germany’s Bosch in Russia to offset the historic losses resulting from Moscow’s Ukraine invasion.

Russian air-dropped bombs destroyed the ice arena in Kherson this morning.
There are confirmed fatalities. Shops, schools, residential buildings, a post office, and cars were also damaged in the strike.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russia is requesting permission to purchase Boeing aircraft using billions of dollars in frozen state assets as part of negotiations with the U.S., once a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached — Bloomberg reports.
Although this demand is not a condition for Russia’s agreement to a truce, Moscow understands that the frozen funds cannot be used for aircraft purchases without a ceasefire, according to a source cited by the agency.

🇸🇰 Over 18% of Slovaks want Russia to win its war against Ukraine, according to a new Ipsos poll.
The survey found that only about one-third of Slovaks support a Ukrainian victory. Additionally, 33% of respondents said they would prefer the war to end in a temporary peace without either side winning.
More than 16% said they either didn’t know or didn’t care how the war ends.
Support for a Ukrainian victory is lowest among voters of the ruling Smer party, led by Prime Minister Robert Fico — only 3% of them want Ukraine to win, while 43% support a Russian victory.

Over 18% of Slovaks want Russia to win its war against Ukraine, according to a new Ipsos poll.

wow that’s disappointing and in stark contrast with the Czech people who remain mostly supportive of Ukraine although I don’t have the most up to date stats at hand

Russophilia (which is often adjacent to Pan-Slavism) is a thing in a number of countries. I worked for a month in Slovakia last year and the figures are credible.

I have had a lot of contact with Bulgarians and there's a clearer and deeper thing than [corrected word] I can really work out about Slovaks.

There's also an interesting tangle of residual pro-Sovietism and Strong Man Russophilia to be found both East and West of the old Iron Curtain among different groups. Among the old it includes reminiscences about the Good Old (Bad Old) Days and among some of the young it is a warped dream about something they never knew.

I type this as someone who has relatives on both sides who have part of their brains walled off as dilapidated Marx Theme Parks. My father's side (Spanish - Irish) are sometimes even stranger than my Ukraine born mother's, but that's another story.

If this sort of thing interests you, three very different starting points (have posted about the first before) are:

Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More by Alexei Yurchak (heavy reading).

Party Animals: My Family and Other Communists by David Aaronovich (lighter but I can relate to it though much younger than him).

If you want to follow a journey through changing times and issues, the works of Nobel winner Svetlana Alexievich are an incredible collection of testimonies. The Unwomanly Face of War, Secondhand Time, Zinky Boys, Voices from Chernobyl and so on.

It's going to be interesting to see the impact of a heavyweight, independent Ukraine across the Baltics after the war. Despite the terrible circumstances, Ukrainian culture appears to be surging with massive amounts of ingenuity and resilience.

This panel discussion with Christo Grozev might be of interest. Streaming tickets available:

Russia’s spies: Uncovering Russia’s secret espionage programmes
Exploding weapons factories, assassination plots and fake news: Vladimir Putin’s hybrid war campaign against the West has stepped up several notches since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Date: Thursday 22 May 2025
Times: 7.30pm-9pm (BST)

How is Russia using deep undercover agents, known as “illegals” to infiltrate the West? How has Moscow pivoted in recent years from using trained professional spies to recruiting casual operatives for one-time sabotage operations? What are the goals of Russia’s increasingly deadly sabotage campaign, including arson attacks, exploding parcels and even assassination attempts?
Join our expert panel including Christo Grozev, Daniela Richterova and The Guardian’s Shaun Walker, live in London and online. They’ll take us into a world of shadows and mystery to uncover the gripping history and present-day operations of Russia’s spy programme – as explored in Walker’s new book, The Illegals. The panel will also discuss the methods and sources they have used to uncover some of Russia’s most secret operations and fully understand Russia’s clandestine malign activities, looking further back in history – to the Cold War and into the long and chequered past of Russia’s spy programmes.

Shaun Walker is the Guardian’s central and eastern Europe correspondent. His new book, The Illegals, shines new light on Russia’s most secretive espionage project. Through hundreds of interviews and access to never-before-seen archives, it blows open the secrets of the biggest group of deep-cover spies in intelligence history.
Daniela Richterova is the senior lecturer in Intelligence Studies at the Department of War Studies in King’s College London. She has worked on the history of Eastern Bloc sabotage operations, and how that heritage informs present-day Russian tactics.
Christo Grozev is an award-winning investigative journalist who has busted numerous Russian spies with his groundbreaking investigations for Bellingcat and The Insider. He was the first to identify the suspects in the Novichok poisoning of Sergei Skripal in 2018. The late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, whose poisoning he also investigated, described him as “a modern-day Sherlock Holmes”.

https://www.theguardian.com/guardian-live-events/2025/mar/24/russias-spies-uncovering-russias-secret-espionage-programmes?utm_medium=ACQUISITIONS_HOUSE_ADS&utm_campaign=live_event_russian_spies&utm_content=onplatform&utm_term=onplatform&utm_source=GUARDIAN_WEB&redirector=Adscience

Thanks for that, @PerkingFaintly, this event looks great, just booked it (online)!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-17-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian officials continue to reiterate Russian President Vladimir Putin's non-negotiable demands for extensive territorial concessions from Ukraine while noting that ongoing peace negotiations are unlikely to achieve results quickly.
• Russian forces recently conducted a roughly battalion-sized mechanized assault across a wide front in western Zaporizhia Oblast, representing an inflection in recently observed Russian mechanized assault tactics.
• The Kremlin is adopting increasingly threatening rhetoric towards Europe aimed at preventing Europe from supporting Ukraine and defending itself.
• Russia is increasingly adapting its drones to facilitate chemical weapons strikes against the frontline and rear areas of Ukraine — in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), of which Russia is a signatory.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that the United States and Ukraine are making progress towards signing a bilateral mineral deal.
• European countries continue to increase their domestic defense production, including in support of Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk. Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Outlines of a minerals deal have been signed. Wonder what was in it at the end.

odd, I'd have thought Ukrainians could probably teach the Danish more, unless it's about a specific drone

Indeed. I think after the war Ukrainian military could go around Europe offering training in drone warfare and the take up would be good.

And Rubio had said the US is ready to walk away from the peace deal

It’s a tacit admission of failure, isn’t it? After all the big talk, we have precisely….nothing.

Exactly.

"U.S. President Donald Trump will walk away from trying to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal within days unless there are clear signs that a deal can be done, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Friday."

@ reuters.com
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-ready-abandon-efforts-broker-russia-ukraine-peace-deal-rubio-says-2025-04-18/?taid=680202ffe972bd0001dd91a8&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Oh come on. Trump is the biggliest, bestest deal maker the world has ever seen. He's getting a deal on day one doncha know.

Cowardly arse wanted capitulation from Ukraine to make him look good. Well done Zelensky for staying strong and holding your course Now Europe and rest of the World- step up.

They could, it's an excellent idea and is something that has been suggested elsewhere for some time now, but don't underestimate institutional inertia (aka "yes but that's not how we do it here")

The Very Senior Officers in some militaries can be very very reluctant to take on board lessons learned by other militaries in foreign wars.

Surely Ukraine shouldn’t be handing their mineral wealth over to America without a peace deal?

There was an article in the Finnish news fairly recently about Finnish volunteers in Ukraine saying Finnish defence forces aren't prepared for warfare as it is now, with drones, then a few days later an article about a Finnish conscript designing and building a drone as part of his training (probably to try and counteract the other article!). I think the appetite for learning might be here in Finland at least, and probably the other Nordics (Sweden wants to learn from Finland at least, they want Finnish officers coming to teach their conscripts) and the Baltics but Western European countries might be more reluctant as you say, too entrenched in their own methods and too removed from the possibility of invasion.

Well yes, they absolutely should not. But if help is withdrawn if they don't agree to hand over then I can understand why they would, even without a peace deal.

The original quote was badly written - turns out that the Danish people are there to learn from the Ukrainians.