Ukraine Invasion: Part 54

[MagicFox]

We're on 54. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
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sorry it didn't work so tried to post the image but that didn't work either

This is it

I know I'm naive but I really don't understand why Ukraine is getting all the pressure.

It's ridiculous in 2025 that we need to spend money to stop other countries killing us. The veneer of civilisation is so thin.

I'm glad I'm old.

Live:Ukraine

🔹 Zelenskyy spoke with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about security guarantees and Europe’s role in the peace process.

He also discussed expanding cooperation with Armin Papperger, CEO of Rheinmetall AG.

🔸 “We are wrapping up the Munich Conference with an engaging discussion among EU foreign ministers still present in Munich. Europe remains firmly united in supporting Ukraine and strengthening its own defense. New initiatives will be proposed soon to move forward,” said European Foreign Affairs Chief Kaja Kallas.

🔹 China hopes for a fair peace agreement on Ukraine, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said.

"China supports all efforts to restore peace. We hope to achieve a fair and lasting peace agreement that is binding and acceptable to all parties," the diplomat stated.

According to him, Beijing has consistently advocated for a peaceful settlement based on four principles: respect for sovereignty, adherence to the UN Charter, the use of peaceful methods to resolve differences, and consideration of the legitimate security concerns of each party.

🔸 European newspapers have picked up Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s call for a “mini-NATO.”

“It’s time to create a European army,” “Break with the United States pushes Europe into a new era,” “Zelenskyy calls on Europe to stand up to Putin”—these were the headlines on the front pages of leading media outlets after the Ukrainian president’s speech at the Munich Security Conference.

🔹 There are two red lines that are not up for discussion—Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO, said Finnish President Alexander Stubb.

He supported the stance of many allies against ruling out Ukraine’s NATO accession and expanded on it with Finland’s own experience.

Statements of support for Ukraine focus on three pillars that require absolute guarantees—independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.

“In World War II, Finland retained sovereignty but lost the right to choose its foreign policy alliances and 10% of its territory.

Ukrainians are already negotiating accession and will be Europeans, not Russians. At some stage, Ukraine will be in NATO,” Stubb said, noting that while immediate accession is unlikely, this must change over time.

🔸 Zelenskyy, in an interview with NBC News, said that since the start of the full-scale invasion, 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and 380,000 wounded.

He also noted that tens of thousands are missing or in captivity.

🔹 Ukraine will not get a “very good deal” under the current conditions, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told NBC News.

He noted that Ukraine has not yet defeated Russia, but Putin also cannot achieve victory.

“But there may be a more important thing—peace, perhaps not the best, but peace for the people. Which is more important than any agreements,” Zelenskyy said.

The president added that Ukraine cannot play by Putin’s rules.

❗️President Zelenskyy arrived in the UAE with the First Lady.

“The priority is for even more of our people to return home from captivity,” he stated.

🔸 After the night strike on the CHP in Mykolaiv, electricity generation was completely destroyed, said Mayor Oleksandr Senkevych.

“Currently, we are trying to restore heat supply using alternative solutions. Employees of both the CHP and Mykolaivoblteploenergo are involved. The work is ongoing. No details, but it is really difficult,” Senkevych noted.

🔹 Zelenskyy said he wants Ukraine, not Russia, to be a priority for US President Donald Trump.

Asked whether he believes Trump is negotiating in good faith, Zelenskyy responded: “I hope so. I hope so. Yes, I count on it. I count on it very much.” At the same time, he warned that no one, including Trump, should take Putin at his word.

He also emphasized that any rare earths deal with the US must include security guarantees for Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine has analyzed which rare earth elements the US imports for its industry.

🔸 US Secretary of State: The coming days and weeks will show whether Putin is interested in peace.

“Again, one phone call is not enough, one meeting is not enough. There is still a lot of work to do. But I believe that even the longest journey begins with the first step. We will see what happens next, hopefully something good,” Rubio added.

🔹 Washington is disappointed with Zelenskyy’s “short-sighted” decision to pass up a “great opportunity” to sign the US-proposed Ukrainian mineral deal, says White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes.

He noted that the deal would allegedly allow American taxpayers to “return” the money sent to Kyiv while simultaneously developing Ukraine’s economy.

Hughes added that the White House believes “close economic ties with the United States will be the best guarantee against future aggression and an integral part of lasting peace.”

Earlier, Zelenskyy said that any mineral development by the United States should be linked to security guarantees for Ukraine that will deter future Russian aggression.

🔸 Some U.S. senators have proposed allowing Ukraine to join NATO if Russia violates a ceasefire, a plan that would likely require the U.S. to remain a guarantor of Ukraine’s support. Senior European leaders now back this idea, The Guardian reports.

The proposal is set to be discussed at a meeting of major European leaders on February 17 in Paris. Meanwhile, U.S. special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg outlined the U.S. negotiating strategy to European leaders in Munich. Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski described the approach as unorthodox.

🔹 The US expects EU countries to send troops to Ukraine as part of a peace agreement, Reuters reports.

A list of US questions for EU countries regarding a possible treaty between Russia and Ukraine includes:
▪️ Which third countries might agree to send troops, and how, where, and for how long they could be deployed.
▪️ How the US and its allies should respond if those troops come under attack.
▪️ How sanctions against Russia can be further strengthened.
▪️ What additional measures—such as weapons, equipment, and maintenance—the EU can take to bolster Ukraine’s position.

❗️”I told the US special envoy: if you come to Ukraine, we are going to the front,” — Zelenskyy to Kellogg.

Kellogg will arrive in Kyiv on February 20.

🔸 Tears at the Munich Conference: Christoph Heusgen broke down as he closed the event.

The conference chairman concluded that the values of the US and Europe are no longer shared and that any negotiations are meaningless unless Putin is brought to justice.

Unable to finish speaking, Heusgen left the podium to a loud ovation from the audience.

Forgot to add:

I fear war is coming, and alliances are being broken apart and we do not have the ability to pull together. If countries spend more on the armed forces, taxes rise etc I fear the far right will capitalize on it.

I hope that fear is irrational, but ... I'm not quite sure of that, not with what senior leaders are saying.

Apologies, the above info was from United 24, this is:

Live:Ukraine

🔹 Russian command may shift its offensive priorities in spring and summer 2025 – ISW

During the Munich Security Conference, Zelensky stated that the situation on the Pokrovsk front has improved in recent days. A spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the area also noted that Russian activity near Pokrovsk has become less intense recently.

Analysts suggest that Russian military leadership may prioritize an offensive on Kostyantynivka in 2025. As a result, reports indicate that Russia is not reinforcing its troop presence south of Pokrovsk.

🇳🇴 Norway joins the International Drone Coalition for Ukraine

On February 15, Norwegian Defense Minister Tore Onshuus Sandvik signed the relevant document, making Norway the 18th member of the coalition, alongside Ukraine and 16 other countries.

▪️Earlier, Norway announced it would provide Ukraine with air defense systems worth nearly $78 million.

▪️The Drone Coalition was established in February 2024 during the 19th Ramstein meeting. It is led by Latvia and the United Kingdom and aims to supply Ukraine’s Armed Forces with drone systems and support domestic production.

❗️Media Reports on Preparations for Ukraine Talks in Saudi Arabia – What’s Known So Far

▪️Talks are reportedly set to take place in the coming days: U.S. and Russian officials are heading to Saudi Arabia to begin negotiations on Ukraine, according to Reuters.

▪️U.S. delegation: According to Congressman Michael McCaul, the U.S. representatives traveling to Saudi Arabia include Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, and Special Representative for the Middle East Steve Witkoff. It remains unclear who will represent Russia in these talks.

▪️Goal of the meeting: Bloomberg reports that the meeting aims to “lay the groundwork” for a future meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin.

▪️Possible Ukrainian participation: Bloomberg suggested that Ukrainian officials might also attend. However, the Office of the President of Ukraine stated that Ukraine will not send official negotiators to represent the country in Saudi Arabia.

▪️Zelensky’s reaction: The Ukrainian president dismissed the reports, stating:
“We have received no documents, no invitations. It is strange to discuss negotiations in this format when we have had no prior discussions with our strategic partners. As far as I remember, Russia is not our strategic partner.”

▪️Zelensky’s upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia: He confirmed that he will visit Saudi Arabia for talks with the Crown Prince, followed by a trip to Turkey, but denied any planned meetings with Russian officials. However, he did not specify the exact date of the visit.

▪️Trump’s previous statement: The U.S. president previously announced that high-level U.S., Ukrainian, and Russian officials may meet in Saudi Arabia next week to discuss ending the war. He emphasized that for now, this would be a meeting of high-level officials, adding that his first meeting with Putin could also take place in Saudi Arabia.

⚡️Defense Forces Push Russian Troops Out of Pishchane on the Pokrovsk Front

The Defense Forces of Ukraine have successfully liberated the village of Pishchane on the Pokrovsk front, according to a spokesperson for the “Khortytsia” operational-strategic group.

The success was achieved through the effective coordination between drone units and assault forces.

🇺🇸🇧🇾 U.S. May Ease Sanctions on Belarus if It Releases Political Prisoners – NYT

The United States is considering easing sanctions on Belarus if the country agrees to release a significant number of political prisoners, The New York Times reports.

On February 12, Belarus released three political prisoners, including an American citizen. That same day, Alexander Lukashenko met with U.S. State Department officials for the first time in five years.

Following the meeting, a U.S. official stated that the Trump administration is exploring a “major deal” under which Lukashenko would agree to release a large number of political prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief.

▪️According to the Belarusian human rights group “Viasna”, there are currently 1,226 political prisoners in Belarus. In July 2024, a new amnesty law came into effect, allowing the release of certain categories of political prisoners, and the first releases began soon after.

🔸 This week, Russian forces launched nearly 1,220 aerial bombs, over 850 strike drones, and more than 40 missiles of various types on Ukrainian territory, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported
*
🇩🇪* German Far-Right Candidate Alice Weidel Wants “Good Relations” with Russia

Alice Weidel, the far-right candidate for German chancellor, has pledged to lift all sanctions on Russia, resume unrestricted trade, and restore operations of the Nord Stream gas pipelines if elected.

During an interview, she was repeatedly asked about Russia’s threats of war against Germany, but she refused to criticize Moscow, instead blaming Berlin for “escalating the situation.”

▪️Weidel is running for office as the candidate of the far-right populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD), whose members have repeatedly expressed pro-Russian views.

🇬🇧 British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will attend the meeting of European leaders convened by French President Macron, The Guardian reports.

It is expected that he will later convey the messages from the meeting to U.S. President Donald Trump, whom he is set to meet in Washington next week.

The summit, scheduled for February 17, will also include NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte and the leaders of Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Poland, according to the publication.

During the meeting, politicians are likely to discuss U.S. efforts to exclude European leaders from peace negotiations and the position Europe should take regarding Ukraine’s future NATO membership. The conversation will also address what security guarantees could be offered to Ukraine, either through NATO or some form of European forces.

🔹 Today is the Day of Military Journalist in Ukraine.

Russia killed 97 journalists during the full-scale war, both Ukrainian and foreign, who revealed the truth about the war to the world.

🇪🇺 Finnish President Alexander Stubb is convinced that the EU needs a special representative for Ukraine to have significant influence in any peace process.

His view was supported by Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković, who believes the EU lacks a figure respected in Moscow, Kyiv, and Washington—someone with the authority to lead peace negotiations.

🔸 “Putin is thinking not only about Ukraine.” In an interview with NBC, Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia could launch a war against NATO.

The president, citing Ukrainian intelligence, said that Russia is preparing exercises for 150,000 of its troops in Belarus—information he has shared with allies.

Zelensky believes that “Putin only wants to show the world that these are exercises,” but in reality, the full-scale invasion of Ukraine also started with such “symbolic exercises.” In his view, Lithuania and Poland could be Russia’s next targets.

“We are simply sharing that there is a high risk [of invasion]. God willing, it won’t happen. Maybe before that, Trump and our allies will stop Putin. But we must prepare so that it doesn’t come as a surprise, so that Putin doesn’t return as he did three years ago,” Zelensky said.

*❗️Trump confirmed Zelensky’s participation in peace negotiations between the U.S. and Russia.

❗️🇬🇧🇺🇦 The United Kingdom is ready to deploy troops in Ukraine to enforce any peace agreement, stated Prime Minister Keir Starmer.*

“The UK is prepared to take a leading role in accelerating work on security guarantees for Ukraine,” he said.

This is the first time a British prime minister has explicitly stated that the UK is considering deploying peacekeeping forces in Ukraine.

▪️Axios, which revealed details of the conversation between Zelensky and Trump, noted that the U.S. president supported the idea of deploying European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine as a security guarantee.

▪️Later, AP reported that a group of European countries was privately working on a plan to send troops to Ukraine to assist with post-war security.

🇺🇸 Trump is ready to allow Europe to purchase U.S. weapons for Ukraine, reports Bloomberg.

The American president responded affirmatively when asked by journalists about this possibility.

The report states that this “opens the door” for Ukraine to access weapons even if Trump halts direct U.S. aid. However, it remains unclear whether this possibility will actually materialize.

🔹 Drones attacked the Ilsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, according to local Telegram channels.

The regional governor reported a “massive attack,” stating that a woman was injured and 12 houses were damaged. However, he did not mention any consequences for the refinery.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense claims that 90 drones were allegedly shot down over Russia and temporarily occupied Crimea, including 24 drones supposedly downed over the Krasnodar region.

On the subject of World War III there was an article by Mark Galeotti in yesterday's times that was quite hopeful.
The relevant bit of the article was this:

A lasting peace?

Securing a deal now gives Putin the option of restarting hostilities in the future. However, it may well be that even if this is his intent, he will end up settling for what he has. By 2026, the Soviet-era stockpiles of armoured vehicles that have allowed the Russians to make up losses in battle will essentially be exhausted.

Reconstituting his forces will take at least five years and more likely eight. Despite scary suggestions that he would attack Nato (especially if the United States abandons Europe), there is no evidence that he harbours any such ambitions. Ukraine is a special case, that he has long considered unfairly wrenched from Russia in 1918 by Lenin. Besides, he was unable even to defeat Kyiv. Even without the Americans, European Nato has more and largely better-armed troops than Russia will, even if it rebuilds to prewar levels.

I'll post the article in full this afternoon when I get home.

Thank you @DesdamonasHandkerchief

I do hope NATO is taking very very strong notes on current warfare styles and investing heavily in drones, and training operators.

"Those that have to spend it all outside of the country, well that's more difficult. But that's why it's important to keep manufacturing in the country!"
Again totally agree on manufacturing in general and as regards military manufacturing then it improves security of supply

In principle, it's a nice idea. In practice, it's hugely inefficient in most cases. NATO uses five different types of main battle tanks. You'd get better tanks and more of them for your money if you standardized on one or two. The same problem exists with armored vehicles, aircraft, small arms, etc. So not only does Europe collectively spend too little, but what is spent is spent inefficiently.

If you asked a French armored cavalry officer if they'd rather have 100 Leclercs or 150 South Korean M2's (which is a superior tank) for the same amount of money, the M2's would win every time. But the politicians want to spend the money domestically, even if it degrades combat readiness and capability.

Apologies but has there ever been an analysis of putin power with allies v USA power with allies?

If nato was triggered does anyone think putin stands a chance?
Would China rush to their aid?
Without China I can't see how there is any chance putin would win but I appreciate I have no evidence on which to base this except he's struggling now agaisnt a half armed Ukraine.

I think America investment in the minerals is a good thing but I'm not sure how appropriate it is to mention that now under putin nose?
I think it's good because it will give usa more personal interests in the region and a reason to defend those interests.

I know I'm going against the general feeling here but I'm feeling very positive.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE - FEB 17, 2025
■ Casualties stay above average while engagements drop below it
■ Good armored losses (APVs & Tanks)
■ Officers: +38 weekly batch; 4.5 per day for last four ⬆
■ Close to 30 🇺🇦 strikes reported

Putin wouldn't start a conventional war now; he'd wait 3-5 years until he could rebuild his army. The US military continuously examines the balance of forces between NATO and Russia. The Russian army is severly degraded now, which is one reason why Ukraine won't require a huge number of peacekeeping forces in the near future.

China would probably help Russia economically and with military supplies (sold, not given) if Russia went to war with NATO, but I think it's very unlikely they would supply troops.

I posted at the end of the last thread that anything that brings the US and Ukraine closer economically would be good from a security standpoint in the long run, but the mineral deal offered had no chance of being taken as presented. I'm confused about why it was done, as Trump surely would have known that.

Morning..

Bit of a post and run but whilst I’d agree that too much diversity in materiel can be a bad thing there are some advantages to having at least a little bit of diversity in your ordnance/equipment…if you equip all your forces with system A then once the bad guy has found a counter measure to A you are all compromised.

That’s not an abstract thought, it was thinking was behind the retention for some systems and equipment in one role I was involved in when I was in military uniform.

Going with one supplier of x, or y doesn’t half give them an opportunity to screw the purchaser……(anyone mention BAe or whatever they are called now?)

On the political picture and looking at the UK only I’m not sure how long promises of increases in defence spending will last after first contact with the Treasury and/or the funding of social causes lobby….I don’t have a great deal of confidence in the UK PM actually standing by all of his promises…same may well apply elsewhere in Europe.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-16-2025

Key Takeaways:

• US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a telephone call on February 16 to "open a channel of communication" for future talks about the war in Ukraine.
• US, Russian, and Ukrainian delegations are reportedly gathering in Saudi Arabia ahead of bilateral US-Russia and US-Ukraine negotiations in the coming weeks.
• Ukraine's European partners reiterated their support for Ukraine's war effort and domestic defense industry at the Munich Security Conference.
• The Kremlin officially reiterated its claim that Ukraine has no sovereignty, setting conditions for Moscow to claim that Ukraine has no standing to negotiate with Russia or that any agreements reached with Ukraine in the future are invalid.
• Medvedchuk's interview and Peskov's February 16 statements continue to cast doubt on Moscow's willingness to negotiate in good faith about a settlement of the war and set informational conditions for Russia to violate any agreement reached on the grounds that the Ukrainian government had no legal right to conclude it.
• The Kremlin extended an open invitation to US President Donald Trump to attend the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow as part of efforts to posture Russia's strength and global power status.
• Western reporting suggests that the United States intends to ease sanctions on Belarus. Russia uses Belarus as a staging ground for its military against Ukraine and NATO and as a critical tool in its sanctions evasion schemes.
• The Russian military command reportedly redeployed additional elements of the Southern Military District's (SMD) 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) to the Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions, further indicating that the Russian military command intends to prioritize putting pressure on Kostyantynivka – the southernmost point of Ukraine's "fortress belt" – in 2025.
• The Russian military appears to be committing to a multi-year-long effort to seize Ukraine's "fortress belt" in Donetsk Oblast, further underscoring Russia's Putin's apparent disinterest in a lasting and enduring peace in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kupyansk, Siversk, and Kurakhove.

🔸 Tears at the Munich Conference: Christoph Heusgen broke down as he closed the event to a standing ovation

He speaks for us 😓

The comments under that video are utterly depressing

Gideon Rachman in the FT. Sobering. on.ft.com/4312hSK

"The implications for the rest of Europe are also alarming. Putin wants Nato troops removed from the whole of the former Soviet empire. European officials believe Trump is likely to agree to withdraw US troops from the Baltics and perhaps further west, leaving the EU vulnerable to a Russian army that Nato governments warn is preparing for a larger conflict beyond Ukraine. It is clear that the US can no longer be regarded as a reliable ally for the Europeans. But the Trump administration’s political ambitions for Europe mean that, for now, America is also an adversary — threatening democracy in Europe and even European territory, in the case of Greenland."

The US might also be an adversary of Canada too. Though surely not militarily.

This is terrifying for European security.

If Trump is as shortsighted as this, he must envisage US, China and Russia as carving up the world between themselves.

Trump is getting taken to task by the conservative press, with the qualification that Europe needed to hear some of what he's saying.

The Trump Shock Comes to Europe - The allies receive bracing, if not always helpful, warnings from the U.S.

The conclusion of that editorial makes a good point:

A U.S. withdrawal from Europe would be a historic mistake, and damaging to American interests. But after last week Europe is on notice that Mr. Trump may be willing to leave the Continent to its own devices. Europe needs to act accordingly, and an economic revival and greater investment in its own defense are essential and urgent.

Europe would have more budgetary flexibility to increase defense spending if it allowed its economies to grow by relaxing state control and regulation.

@notimagainI agree; it's good to have a few options in the locker. Fortunately, there are enough countries making defense kit at scale to produce it at low cost and high quality. The bespoke stuff made in low numbers is the real problem.

Poland has gone all in on buying from the international market, particularly the South Koreans. They've also increased their defense spending to over 4%. They've wisely chosen to maximize what they get for that spending. As Mark Twain said, "Nothing so focuses the mind as the prospect of being hanged."

www.gmfus.org/news/poland-flexes-its-muscles-partnering-south-korea-europes-eastern-defense

Other European countries should feel that sense of urgency.

must envisage US, China and Russia as carving up the world between themselves.

I do think that this is wha he envisions. And that is a worldview that aligns with that of Putin and Xi

I rather wonder if Trump has no idea of long or short sighted - all he considers is his own self - interest and ego. I wonder if he even comprehends that there is an existence outside his own self-interest. I realise that sounds cynical but it's not meant to be - just wondering if that's how his mental state operates.

He might pressure Zelensky about that mineral deal rather strongly.

I'm a lurker. I so very much appreciate the effort that goes into these threads, and I check in at least once a day. Thanks to all contributors.

Trump is a lame-duck president at this point. He can't run again, so I think he's operating in what he considers to be America's best interest, not his personal best interest. There's a case to be made that China is a far greater threat to the US and the world than Russia, and deterring China is the more pressing issue.

If Trump does walk away from Ukraine, nothing is holding them to any deal he makes with them.

Here's an interesting round of reaction among European leaders to the Trump earthquake.

Squeezed Between Putin and Trump, Europe Sees a Moment of Truth - Excluded from talks between the U.S. and Russia, European leaders consider dramatic and immediate change

Perhaps some are starting to feel the same urgency that Poland has.

If Trump does walk away from Ukraine, nothing is holding them to any deal he makes with them.

If it's legally signed it will be binding under international law.