Ukraine Invasion: Part 54

[MagicFox]

We're on 54. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
Agreed thread guidance:
A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content
C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

DH works in defence manufacturing (won’t say what as it’s quite niche and outing) but they’re already being told to be careful what they’re sharing with US counterparts.

@notimagain, I assume you’re referring to France as the nation that doesn’t assume any American support in the event of war, and places like Menwith Hill and Cyprus as intelligence collection sites.

Starmer trying to bully Tim Cook into giving the U.K. a back door into British iPhones isn’t going to directly affect military intelligence sharing, but it’s not helpful in maintaining trust.

I heard that Hegseth is backtracking on his plan to cut 8% of the Pentagon’s budget. He’s now saying he’ll redirect the money into submarines and strategic air defense assets. Of course Congress has to approve the DoD budget, which is how we wound up short on those assets to begin with.

@MissConductUS

, I assume you’re referring to France as the nation that doesn’t assume any American support in the event of war,

Correct..and as a result a very capable Air Force.

and places like Menwith Hill and Cyprus as intelligence collection sites.

Those are the two obvious, well known ones.

Starmer trying to bully Tim Cook into giving the U.K. a back door into British iPhones isn’t going to directly affect military intelligence sharing, but it’s not helpful in maintaining trust.

I agree, and OTOH don’t agree with Starmer on this issue at all, but that’s UK domestic politics..

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-20-2025

Key Takeaways:

• The Financial Times (FT) published an investigation on February 20 supporting ISW's long-held assessment that Russian military commanders are either complicit in or directly enabling subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in clear violation of international law.
• FT's investigation suggests that more senior Russian commanders may also be complicit in issuing orders to execute Ukrainian POWs.
• Senior Ukrainian intelligence officials reported that North Korean forces are conducting joint operations with Russian forces in Kursk Oblast and are gaining new combat capabilities.
• US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on February 20.
• The Kremlin is likely attempting to portray the People's Republic of China (PRC) as more aligned with its stance on the war in Ukraine than the PRC is willing to publicly message.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka.
• Russia is reportedly increasing its production of glide bombs and modernizing its cruise missiles.

UK Min of Defence

Today’s emergency episode of Behind the Lines is great, well worth listening to. A discussion with Mike Martin MP who sits on the Defence Select Committee.

My biggest takeaway is essentially too much attention is focused on solving the “Ukraine problem” rather than looking at the wider question of Western collective defence. He argues that you can solve the Ukraine war and not the wider issue which leads to more problems down the road or you can properly address the broader issue of whether article 5 is dead and western collective defence non-existent and resolve Ukraine as a result.

Thanks will listen now. I had quite a high opinion of Mike Martin until he gave a hideously clickbaity no-nuance interview to the big issue last week. Hope he redeems himself here!

Talking of Mike Martin, this is an impressive thread by him: x.com/threshedthought/status/1892822755885592663?s=46&t=ZRiOqYBPJdwGCarjKNzCeQ

Yes he’s very un-clickbatey in this interview.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️US threatens to shut off Starlink (kyivindependent.com/us-threatens-to-shut-off-starlink-if-ukraine-wont-sign-minerals-deal-sources-tell-reuters/) if Ukraine won't sign minerals deal, sources tell Reuters.
The U.S. first raised the prospect of shutting off Starlink after Zelensky rejected the deal presented on Feb. 12. Starlink terminals are critical in securing Ukraine's battlefield communications.

⚡️Zelensky to sign (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-sign-us-minerals-deal-in-very-short-term-waltz-says/) US minerals deal soon, Waltz says.
U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said on Feb. 21 that President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to sign a minerals deal with the U.S. "in the very short term," the Guardian reported.
"President Zelensky is going to sign that deal, and you will see that in the very short term," Waltz said at the Conservative Political Action Conference. "And that is good for Ukraine. What better could you have for Ukraine than to be in an economic partnership with the United States?"

⚡️Ukrainian, US officials negotiated (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-and-us-officials-negotiated-all-night-amid-minerals-deal-dispute-axios-reports/) throughout the night amid minerals deal dispute, Axios reports.
Ukrainian and U.S. officials were at the table overnight and into the morning discussing an "improved" bilateral rare earth mineral deal on Feb. 21, Axios reported.
"This is an agreement that can strengthen our relations, and the key is to work out the details to ensure its effectiveness. I look forward to the outcome," President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 21.

⚡️Zelensky is not 'important' to negotiations (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-is-not-important-to-russia-negotiations-trump-says/) on ending war, Trump says.
"I don't think he's very important to be at meetings, to be honest with you," Trump told Fox News Radio on Feb. 21. "When Zelensky said, 'Oh, he wasn't invited to a meeting,' I mean, it wasn't a priority because he did such a bad job in negotiating so far."

⚡️EU preparing military aid package for Kyiv worth $20.9 billion (kyivindependent.com/eu-preparing-military-aid-package-for-kyiv-worth-20-9-billion-bloomberg-reports/), Bloomberg reports.
The European Union is preparing a military aid package for Ukraine worth approximately 20 billion euros ($20.9 billion), Bloomberg reported on Feb. 21, citing a source familiar with the matter.

The additional military support would aim to supply Kyiv with air defense systems, artillery ammunition, long-range missiles, and drones.

⚡️91% of Ukrainians oppose (kyivindependent.com/91-of-ukrainian-oppose-peace-talks-without-ukraines-participation-poll-shows/) peace talks without Ukraine's participation, poll finds.

⚡️ Kremlin denies (kyivindependent.com/kremlin-denies-demanding-nato-eastern-rollback-in-talks-with-us/) demanding NATO eastern rollback in talks with US.

⚡️Russia may offer (kyivindependent.com/russia-may-offer-frozen-assets-for-ukraines-reconstruction-demands-funds-for-occupied-territories-reuters-reports/) frozen assets for Ukraine's reconstruction, demand funds for occupied territories, Reuters reports.
Russia may be willing to use a portion of its $300 billion in frozen assets to help rebuild Ukraine as part of a potential peace deal but insist that some of the funds be allocated to occupied territories, Reuters reported on Feb. 21, citing sources familiar with the matter.
According to Reuters, one of the sources said Russia could agree to allocate up to two-thirds of frozen assets for Ukraine's reconstruction, provided accountability guarantees.

⚡️Putin orders (kyivindependent.com/putin-orders-ministers-to-prepare-for-western-companies-return-to-russia/) ministers to prepare for Western companies'
return to Russia.
Putin instructed his Cabinet of Ministers on Feb. 21 to prepare for the return of Western companies, saying Russian firms should have "certain advantages" over those re-entering the market.

⚡Bulgarian parliament votes against (kyivindependent.com/bulgarian-parliament-votes-against-deploying-troops-to-ukraine/) deploying troops to Ukraine.
The Bulgarian parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of a non-binding declaration on Feb. 21 that would seek to halt any deployment of military forces to Ukraine.

⚡️Trump admits Russia (kyivindependent.com/trump-admits-russia-attacked-ukraine/) attacked Ukraine.
"Russia attacked, but they shouldn't have let him attack," U.S. President Donald Trump said on Feb. 21, after previously blaming Ukraine for starting the war.

⚡️ Kellogg praises (kyivindependent.com/kellogg-praises-zelensky-as-courageous-leader-after-talks/) Zelensky as 'courageous leader' after talks.

⚡️ 5.2 million Ukrainian refugees remain abroad, less than half plan to return (kyivindependent.com/5-2-million-ukrainian-refugees-remain-abroad-less-than-half-plan-to-return-poll-says/), poll says.
The Center for Economic Strategy projects that between 1.7 and 2.7 million Ukrainians may permanently remain abroad, potentially reducing Ukraine's annual GDP by 5.1% to 7.8%.

⚡️Canada opposes (kyivindependent.com/canada-opposes-russias-return-to-g7-vows-to-stand-its-ground-ambassador-says/) Russia's return to G7, vows to 'stand its ground,' ambassador says.

⚡️Austria offers to host Ukraine peace negotiation (https://kyivindependent.com/austria-offers-to-host-ukraine-peace-negotiations-official-says/)s, ambassador says. 

⚡️63% of Ukrainians approve (kyivindependent.com/63-of-ukrainians-approve-zelensky-as-president-poll-shows/) of Zelensky as president, poll shows.

⚡️Over 130 Ukrainian NGOs say elections (kyivindependent.com/over-130-ukrainian-ngos-say-elections-impossible-during-war/) 'impossible' during war.

⚡️EU seeks more US gas to replace (kyivindependent.com/eu-seeks-more-us-gas-to-replace-russian-supplies-energy-comissioner-says/) Russian supplies.
The EU is also looking to develop renewable energy faster to reduce its overall dependence on the fuel, EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said.

Around 53% of Danes are in favor of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine after Russia's full-scale war ends, according to a poll published by Ritzau news agency on Feb. 21, Bloomberg reported. https://kyivindependent.com/most-danes-back-sending-peacekeepers-to-ukraine-poll-shows/

⚡️Lawmaker Iryna Kormyshkina from Zelensky's party resigns (kyivindependent.com/zelenskys-party-lawmaker-kormyshkina-resigns-after-corruption-charges-mp-says/) after corruption charges, MP says.

With coal miners fighting to keep Ukraine's lights on ()
A decade ago, Ukraine’s Donbas region was known for its thriving heavy industry and coal mining. Today, most of the region's mines are closed due to the destruction caused by Russia's war against Ukraine, which has brought global attention to this area.
The Kyiv Independent team visited one of the last remaining operating mines in the region to highlight the resilience of the workers who continue their work despite danger and tough conditions.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE - FEB 22, 2025
■ Casualties & engagements well below average
■ Equipment losses stay above it; notable artillery losses
■ 7th most drone losses to date, 7-day drone losses reach new heights
■ Fewer strikes but strike ratio could be better

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Estonia and France will convene a meeting of European defense ministers on February 24 to discuss how to strengthen support for Ukraine, — Bloomberg.
The meeting will be held via video conference and will be attended by about a dozen colleagues from countries such as the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, and Poland, as well as representatives of the European Union and NATO.

Poland is preparing the 46th military aid package for Ukraine. It should arrive in Ukraine this month, said Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland Vasyl Bodnar in an interview with Radio Svoboda.

❗️The transfer of the first of 30 Belgian F-16s to Ukraine is postponed for at least a year — until the end of 2025 due to delays in the delivery of F-35 aircraft to Belgium from the United States, said Chief of the Belgian General Staff, Aviation General Frederic Vansina, in an interview with the Soir newspaper.

China supports a new “consensus” between the US and Russia on the war in Ukraine, said the Chinese Foreign Ministry.

❕The United States has reopened North Field Air Base on the island of Tinian in the Pacific Ocean, which it plans to use for a possible large-scale conflict with China, — The Warzone
The reconstructed runways and infrastructure of the base are visible in satellite images from December 3, 2023, and January 29, 2025.
It was from this base that B-29 bombers launched raids on Japan during World War II, including the atomic strikes on Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Save the Heroes: UNITED24 Launches a Fundraiser towards Armored Evacuation Vehicles for Medics (https://u24.gov.ua/armored-ambulances?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=media&utm_campaign=medevacs)

Ukraine has increased drone production 10 times: the government has allocated another 8 billion.
“At the same time, we currently produce about a third of the weapons we need ourselves. The task that the government sets for itself is to bring our own weapons production to at least half of the current need. To achieve this goal, we have allocated a record amount this year for the modernization of our own defense industry and the purchase of weapons,” Shmyhal noted.

Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski met with US Secretary of State Rubio on February 21 as part of his visit to Washington, after which he said that “it was a powerful conversation between close allies,” which also concerned the war in Ukraine.

Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, total aid to Ukraine from Germany has reached 43.6 billion euros. The Ukrainian people will always remember such strong support, said President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a conversation with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about a common position in building ways to end the war and provide reliable security guarantees.

Had a good conversation with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and thanked him for Sweden’s military assistance and all support for Ukraine. We are looking forward to the 18th defense assistance package, said President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Spoke with Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob and thanked him for providing Ukraine with 14 packages of defense assistance. The Ukrainian people sincerely appreciate this unwavering support of the Slovenian people, said President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy

On Friday, footage of naval drones with machine guns and a range of 1,700 km was shown at a defense exhibition.
The drones are equipped with gyro-stabilized turrets with a 14.5 mm machine gun and small ship-based surface search radars. They can go out in a five-point storm.
These drones have already been used against Russian helicopters.

What Ukraine has done under these circumstances is nothing short of a miracle, said former CIA Director David Petraeus about the achievements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the war against the Russian Federation.
Petraeus stressed that the way Ukraine is confronting an aggressor country whose army has a significant numerical advantage is impressive. He emphasized that it is Ukraine that is leading the transformations of the war, and the Russians are already following suit.
“They (the Russian military) are very good at electronic warfare, jamming, air defense, etc. But Ukraine continues to develop advanced technologies that are literally not used anywhere else in the world, and this is the future of war,” the general said.

In 2024, the number of child victims in Ukraine increased by 50%, — UNICEF.
In total, more than 2,520 children have been killed or injured since February 2022.
It is noted that the real number of victims is likely to be significantly higher, since this is only data confirmed by the UN.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Zelensky will hold a major press conference on 23 February, a day before the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Rubio sought to reassure EU allies that the talks did NOT represent an abrupt departure from current American policies even as Trump echoed Putin’s rhetoric, calling Zelensky a dictator and blaming Ukraine for the war.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/47582

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The New York Times has learned (www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/us/politics/rubio-russia-europe.html) that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is privately working to reassure European countries concerned about the direct contacts between the American side and Russia during the meeting in Riyadh.
Rubio told European leaders that the Trump administration does not plan to impose the terms of any bilateral agreements with Russia on Ukraine and Europe.
He also acknowledged that the Trump administration has a clear understanding that Russia might try to use the negotiations to sow division in the West or weaken its international isolation.

🇩🇪 Germany will increase pressure on the United States over its position on Ukraine, said Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

The U.S. position differs from Trump’s public statements, as he adopts a bold negotiation style, according to media reports.
In recent days, U.S. President Donald Trump has sharply criticized Ukraine, calling Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator without elections” and claiming the war should have “ended earlier.” However, unofficial sources in the White House say the U.S. remains on Ukraine’s side, and Trump’s approach is part of his characteristic negotiation style.
🔴Zelensky can restore relations with the U.S., writes Politico. However, Kyiv needs to work more actively with Washington to finalize the mineral resources agreement. Publicly criticizing Trump is not an option, as it only fuels tensions. [but oh, it's just fine for Trump to criticize anyone]
🔴The mineral deal. For Trump, it’s crucial to show American voters that Washington is getting something in return for its aid to Ukraine. Thus, signing the agreement is important, according to Reuters and Axios, and Zelensky’s aides are urging him to move forward. Negotiations continue, and the U.S. has sent an updated version of the agreement. [so they get 70% of the money given to Ukraine back through paying their own defense industry AND they get the minerals deal]
🔴“Deviation” from the U.S. stance. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reassured European allies that the U.S. is not changing its course, according to NYT. The talks in Saudi Arabia were a test of whether the Kremlin is genuinely interested in ending the war. Sanctions against Russia will not be lifted without significant behavioral changes from Moscow, although they could be eased if such changes occur.
🔴And what about Russia? Trump’s negotiation strategy also confuses Moscow, Bloomberg reported. Russia fears potential “traps” and unexpected turns during the talks.

Elon Musk complained (x.com/elonmusk/status/1892613981426102465) about his own misinformation detection service, Community Notes, on the social network X.
This happened after the program flagged a news story about Zelensky’s low approval rating as fake.
“Unfortunately, Community Notes is increasingly being used by governments and traditional media. We’re working to fix this,” Musk wrote.

The German chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz stated that Europe must be ready to defend itself without the United States.
Merz also suggested discussing with France and the United Kingdom the issue of nuclear weapons sharing or extending the “nuclear umbrella” to other countries.

Betrayed. First Zelensky, then us?” — these are the words on the new cover of the German magazine Der Spiegel.

The main characteristics of the new Ukrainian missile drone “Trembita”

regarding Musk, the old old phrase keeps coming to mind "Whom the Gods would destroy, they first make mad".

I was just thinking along similar lines. He's so manic right now, so full of hubris, full of himself, absolutely stoned on power and utterly lacking in any perspective, humility, understanding of history, no care as to how he might be coming across to people. I forsee a massive massive crash.
Can't come too soon.

He's been that way for years.

[so they get 70% of the money given to Ukraine back through paying their own defense industry

A small correction. If we ship an artillery shell to Ukraine, we then have to pay the contractor $800 to make a replacement. We might get 15-20% of that back in taxes. So we're out over $600 that could have been spent on something else.

The contractor presumably employs people in the US and pays them, and they spend their wages in the US, so the US economy is not "out" $600; it's mostly gone back into the collective purse. The only bit that gets lost to the community at large is the money taken out of the system by the hyper-rich guy at the top who pays 1.5% tax on his money. (1.5 is not the real figure but it might as well be.)

Okay

What's the situation with decommissioning? What I've seem often is that a proportion of equipment was due to be decommissioned anyway. D'you happen to know the overall relative costs of decommissioning (surely some things are more or less expensive than others) v the cost of shipping to Ukraine?

I've no idea what proportion of military aid that actually arrives in Ukraine was due to be decommissioned actually

Most of it may stay in the economy, but there is still an impact on military budgets. Is we send $10 billion worth of ammunition and arms to Ukraine, that's $10 billion we don't have to spend on submarines, aircraft or anti ship missiles. It's not somehow "free" money.

I was thinking more of the non-miltary folk under the impression that "all that money" is somehow sent to Ukraine as shrink-wrapped palates of dollars (as actually did happen with the money which went missing in Iraq and was never signed for) and who have not stopped to consider what it gets spent on and where it gets spent.

Most military equipment has a very long shelf life. 20 years is typical. And most of it can be refurbished or upgraded by the manufacturer for a fraction of the cost of replacement.

Older kit is often sent to reserve units or expended in training.

So it's not as simple as "we were going to bin it anyway.

Anything sent to Ukraine met the same standards for combat readiness that the Army uses for our own troops.

For info Timothy Snyder’s take on the costs arguments:

https://snyder.substack.com/p/recoup-the-costs

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-21-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian state media and Kremlin officials appear to be leveraging select statements from US officials alongside long-standing Russian narratives to create tension between the United States and Ukraine and undermine faith in America's commitment to Ukraine.
• US officials continue to reiterate their support for Ukraine and a lasting and just resolution of the war.
• Russian forces recently eliminated the Ukrainian pocket west of Kurakhove amid continued reports that the Russian military is redeploying elements of the Russian Southern Military District's (SMD) 8th Combined Arms Army (CAA) from the Kurakhove direction to the Toretsk direction.
• Russian forces are attempting to leverage the seizure of Velyka Novosilka to advance further north of the settlement toward the Donetsk-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border.
• Ukrainian officials continue to highlight the growth of Ukraine's defense industrial base (DIB) through significant expansion in the domestic production of key military equipment.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) Commander Sergei Pinchuk to the rank of Admiral and Eastern Group of Forces Commander Andrei Ivanayev to the rank of Colonel General on February 21.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kurakhove and Velyka Novosilka and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly falsely designating former penal recruits as having abandoned their units without authorization (SOCH) to avoid paying them amid continued indicators that Russian authorities are concerned about the war's strain on the Russian economy.

If true this is despicable blackmail. Who needs enemies when you have 'friends' like Trump.

⚡️US threatens to shut off Starlink (kyivindependent.com/us-threatens-to-shut-off-starlink-if-ukraine-wont-sign-minerals-deal-sources-tell-reuters/) if Ukraine won't sign minerals deal, sources tell Reuters.
The U.S. first raised the prospect of shutting off Starlink after Zelensky rejected the deal presented on Feb. 12. Starlink terminals are critical in securing Ukraine's battlefield communications.