Don't Look Up or Armageddon? Asteroid may hit in 2032, possible deflection mission

[noblegiraffe]

An asteroid has been discovered that may hit the Earth in 2032. The odds a few days ago were calculated at 1 in 67, now it's 1 in 44. It would hit the Earth with the force of a thousand Hiroshimas.

This thread explains that we can only see it till April, when it will disappear till 2028 which will be our best chance of a deflection mission. We will need to decide to start planning that very shortly if that's the decision that is taken.

https://x.com/astro_jonny/status/1886742128199336362?s=61&t=U9XrcF693-JpMxeIueYG7g

It's still overwhelmingly unlikely that it will hit the Earth.

That looks like a dodgy link.

Maybe post a more genuine looking link from one of the big news providers?

A better link
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/08/science/asteroid-yr4-2024-impact-odds.html

It's a twitter thread from the British Science Journalist of the Year 2024.

Here's an article from the Independent that doesn't give nearly as much information
https://www.independent.co.uk/space/asteroid-earth-2024-yr4-hit-b2694326.html

It really isn't. There's far more information in the twitter link I posted...

A giant asteroid hitting the Earth and killing off most of the population would be a great reset. Let's hope so.

Crikey.

Is there anyway we can increase the odds and hurry it up? We're making a right mess of things at the moment.

www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-14359347/interactive-reveals-asteroid-hits-UK.html

It wouldn't kill most of the population, just most of the population in the area where it hits. A city destroyer rather than a planet destroyer.

Here's where it is projected to possibly hit (from the twitter link in the OP), on 22nd December 2032.

What scale would you like the impact to be?

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/torino_scale.html

Grade 10?

A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often.

Or a lesser Grade 3

A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.

Well something like this happens to earth every so often and is actually long overdue to happen actually so who knows.

I'm not sure that it's as simple as that...wouldn't it throw up enormous clouds of dust into the atmosphere, affecting climate, food production etc globally?

@TheSeaOfTranquility Or could cause a massive tsunami.

A level 8 or 9?

8: A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and once per several 1000 years.

9: A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecedented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per 100,000 years.

You could also include Deep Impact.

A different film to Armageddon - more thoughtful about how people would react

I'd rather Armageddon over Deep Impact and Don't Look Up as the asteroid (spoilers) doesn't hit in Armageddon!

Which is why, if the probability of a hit isn't reduced to zero by the time we lose sight of it in April, we need to make plans.

This could include planning for a deflection mission where we try to knock the asteroid off its current trajectory. NASA have had a practice run with this before with a different asteroid.

Terrific! The year I qualify for my pension.

Hopefully the media will shut up about global warming for a bit

...but the asteroid will provide jobs!

Let's not get carried away, these headlines crop up from time to time and we're still here, destroying the Earth & each other

Snippet from the ny times piece

I am a chronic worrier about all sorts of things, but the idea of global armageddon is one of the few things that never troubles me.

It's Martians you need to worry about.
But it's ok, the chances of anything coming from Mars are a million to one
They say