Don't Look Up or Armageddon? Asteroid may hit in 2032, possible deflection mission

[noblegiraffe]

An asteroid has been discovered that may hit the Earth in 2032. The odds a few days ago were calculated at 1 in 67, now it's 1 in 44. It would hit the Earth with the force of a thousand Hiroshimas.

This thread explains that we can only see it till April, when it will disappear till 2028 which will be our best chance of a deflection mission. We will need to decide to start planning that very shortly if that's the decision that is taken.

https://x.com/astro_jonny/status/1886742128199336362?s=61&t=U9XrcF693-JpMxeIueYG7g

It's still overwhelmingly unlikely that it will hit the Earth.

I was just thinking the other day we haven't had a doomsday the world is gonna end internet viral gossip story for a while.

Climate change?!

What I’m interested to know (and maybe this is a really stupid question !) but as this asteroid is apparently moving away and will be visible again in 2028 when they will gather more info to see if it will hit us in 2032? What if between now and 2028 it collides with something else in space slightly changing its trajectory and then when we see it again in 2028 it’s going to hit us then ?

I also wonder was it missed in the past will they look back to try and see it to gain more data in case it was captured somewhere but wasn’t recognised as a threat at that point?

As I said probably stupid questions 😂

Yeah that ones sort of always in the background I suppose but every now and then they like to ramp up the panic a couple of notches.

Is there any way we can get it here a bit sooner, maybe next week?

Why?

I'm not worried! Elon musk is bound to save humanity because he's such a nice guy.
(Not)

Yeah the dying legacy media who keep telling us lies. Let’s hear it from them!

If we’re lucky, we’ll may be treated to a deep-dive investigative feature into how this news affects drag queens!

I’m sure he will give it a go if it’s a threat but more for his public image . Trump will probably want to find a way to make it another state or his ‘riviera of the skies’

Make Asteroids Great Again !

I don’t really understand how the odds so far out can be so high?

Sure, orbital mechanics are well understood, but space is really really big and, to scale, Earth is minuscule.

And, as soon as it comes anywhere near our solar system, it will be affected by the solar wind, which is very variable. Even things like supernova explosions and gamma ray emissions will affect its path years in the future.

Has it just doubled again?

Who's counting the odds, the same people hustling for funding?

😆😆😆

And leave all the Xmas shopping until Xmas Eve

The odds of an impact with Earth have increased, it's now 1 in 32 😬

So if the odds stay as they are or increase as April approaches, are we going to be looking at a deflection mission? Apparently Trump has just sacked a load of people at NASA which is excellent timing

I can't quite conceive of a world where we work together on this problem, look at those astronauts who were left on the space station for months.

It can't hit Earth because that would breach my human rights - don't these asteroids know anything. I can't exercise my right to a family life if I've got an asteroid embedded in my head.

I'm off to get some legal aid and a lawyer. I know they've got a high workload at the moment what with one thing and another, but I've got a few years to get my case.heard

You’re right, a kerfuffle would definitely be the outcome. Possibly even a quarrel….

😀

I've put the date in my diary

When will it come back into view ? 2027 ?

It will keep increasing until it's a certain. They are warming us up slowly.

2028, and that would probably be the best time to try to deflect it, so we've got three years to plan.

I was just reading on twitter that there's a chance that an attempt to deflect it could cause it to hit the moon instead which sounds like exactly the sort of balls-up we'd make of it.

I agree

What damage would that potentially do to the moon ?

I wonder if they’ll rename it ?