Don't Look Up or Armageddon? Asteroid may hit in 2032, possible deflection mission

[noblegiraffe]

An asteroid has been discovered that may hit the Earth in 2032. The odds a few days ago were calculated at 1 in 67, now it's 1 in 44. It would hit the Earth with the force of a thousand Hiroshimas.

This thread explains that we can only see it till April, when it will disappear till 2028 which will be our best chance of a deflection mission. We will need to decide to start planning that very shortly if that's the decision that is taken.

https://x.com/astro_jonny/status/1886742128199336362?s=61&t=U9XrcF693-JpMxeIueYG7g

It's still overwhelmingly unlikely that it will hit the Earth.

Meh I'll take those odds.

But still they came!

Yes me too! The odds are so low though, think I can confidently cross it off my 'to worry about' list...

The powers that be will be asleep at the wheel, just like with Covid, head in the sand🙄

At least this might give Elon a useful hyperfocus

Elon is planning on being on Mars when it hits.

And still they come

This could include planning for a deflection mission where we try to knock the asteroid off its current trajectory.

Are we completely confident that they wouldn't just clip it, then make it land somewhere else, like on my house worse?

Good.

@noblegiraffe
And there he can stay!

I hope not. The author of my favourite book series has a projected finish date for the stuff I'm reading of 2039! It'd be a miracle if both he and I make it to that point, but I can't be left waiting for the cliffhanger that is the current story.

I hope they don't drink the water. We all know how that ends.

Don't tell the preppers about this!

Elon should worry. In every Armageddon movie worth its salt, something big and heavy pulverises the evil scientist/architect/insert nob head of choice typically about 30 minutes before the good guys find the solution.

If we all hope really, really hard it will be so. Poor Elon.

This is what would happen at the moment

I did see a suggestion that the countries that are in the firing line will need to work together on the deflection because if India nudged it a bit so that it missed them but hit South America or something, that could cause an international kerfuffle.

So we have potential complete destruction in a 9 mile radius, fires a bit further out, shockwave destruction of some sort up to 60 miles, earthquakes, tsunamis, particulate pollution and global cooling by a few degrees. Other than material loss, even if we couldn't deflect, it seems very survivable and in the worst case an evacuation zone could be created. A greater castastrophe if it hits densely populated areas than the middle of nowhere.

"Very survivable" as a human race. Less survivable if it lands in your city.

It's going to be very interesting to see how this plays out if the odds keep increasing till April.

By the time we have a clear picture, we will be able to evacuate. Asteroids may travel quickly, but not it's not like we would only find out on the day where it's likely to land. As I said, most loss would be material.

Chances of it hitting a densely populated area are tiny in comparison to the total surface of the Earth.

I'll make sure I open the Christmas chocolates early that year.

Do we think we would be told 7 years in advance if it had a high chance of hitting? Probably not.

If you were told you had a 1 in 44 chance of winning the lottery, you'd probably buy a ticket.

I do that anyway 😂

I suppose it depends on what the asteroids composition is as well as to how much damage it causes on impact?

Would it trigger tsunamis if it hit an ocean ?

Fun fact, during the Cold War the idea of intentionally bombing your adversary with an asteroid was seriously investigated.

Deflection technology could save the planet but there are real concerns it could be misused. People ruin everything.