Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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We all know I love a bit of Mark Galeotti…. But he did a useful short episode of his in Moscow’s Shadows podcast about the involvement of NK troops in the war. Far less hysterical than some of the commentary I’ve seen elsewhere.

Agree. I thought his point about the concept of globalised war was really useful too

Here's a bit of good news. The deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine is prompting South Korea to send military advisors to Ukraine. Air defense systems and heavy weapons are likely to follow.

This is fabulous news. The ROK troops are very professional and capable. Their immediate role would be to assist in interrogating any captured or defecting NK troops. South Korean weapons systems are top-shelf and use NATO-standard ammunition. It looks like bringing in NK troops is going to backfire rather badly on the Russians.

More here from twz.com:

South Korea Could Send Advisors, Weapons To Ukraine Over North Korean Troop Movements - The first North Korean troops are expected to arrive in Russia's Kursk region tomorrow, Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Director told us.

Thank goodness for that @MissConductUS as I was so distressed when I read about NK troops going to Russia that I didn't think of the other side!

The 10k-15k NK troops reportedly involved are more important from a geopolitical than a military standpoint. They have no combat experience and have never trained outside of their own country. The kit that they have trained on is either old Russian stuff or locally produced rubbish. And the vast majority of them don't speak Russian, which is going to make intelligence sharing and tactical coordination almost impossible.

I'm still wondering why the Russians thought they were worth the bother.

Really appreciate your insight @MissConductUS as I'd not viewed it that way at all.

I'm wondering how the NK angle will play with South Africa, because of its close and fraternal (though often fractious) relationship with its neighbour Zimbabwe.

There's a very particular piece of history with North Korea.

In the mid-1980s, after Zimbabwean independence, the newly elected government of Mugabe (whose ZANU party had a predominantly Shona-speaking powerbase from Mashonaland in the NE of the country) used a North Korean-trained Zimbabwean army brigade, the Fifth Brigade, to conduct the Gukurahundi – a genocide – in Matabeleland (the Ndebele-speaking SW of the country, which was a major part of the powerbase of his rival Joshua Nkomo's ZAPU party).

Every family from Matabeland knows someone who went missing. The Fifth Brigade is mentioned in Matabeleland with the same sort of shudder the SS gets in Europe.

Folk from Mashonaland shrug, change the subject and generally don't care. That includes the capital Harare and the government.

As the region least likely to support ZANU-PF, Matabeleland also got the fuzzy end of the lollipop during the increasingly lawless militias period of the early 2000s, when Mugabe was trying to cling onto power by any means possible.

Zimbabweans left from all over Zimbabwe, but I strongly suspect Matabeleland had the highest levels of people fleeing. Some came to Britain. And many more went to South Africa. I don't know how much of a lobby these folk have politically – and there's an extremely high chance most of them keep their head down and try not to attract too much attention from either government.

But the effect of this is that there are probably a lot of residents of South Africa, of Zimbabwean origin, for whom the involvement of North Korea in anything is anathema.

Caveat: I am old, and Zimbabwe and South Africa have massively young populations for whom this might be a story from before their time and feel completely irrelevant. Or it might be a story which still chimes very deeply.

I'm sorry, that's a whole load of unknowns. But North Korea isn't some neutral or unknown entity as far as many Zimbabweans are concerned. I cannot predict what this means for the politics!

To give you an idea of what kind of defense kit the South Koreans are making, I present the Samsung robotic machine gun:

Everything We Know About Samsung's Machine Gun Robots

It's fully autonomous and can recognize images and voices. They are deployed along the DMZ with North Korea. And you thought they just made mobile phones.

On another note, the US announced a $400m military aid package for Ukraine yesterday.

Biden Administration Announces Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine

The only thing on the list for this package that's a bit odd is "Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure." It sounds like air defense equipment, but they usually just call it that. It's a puzzlement.

United 24 Media Telegram Highlights

🔹 The European Parliament approved an EU loan of 35 billion euros to Ukraine using Russian assets.

The decision to provide Ukraine with the loan, as part of a G7 package totaling 50 billion euros and funded by profits from Russian assets, was supported by 518 votes in favor and 56 against. The approval followed several hours of debate.

🔸 The Russian Federation will not stop its aggression if Europe lays down its arms. I hope for Germany's leading role in countering Russian aggression, said Finland's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Elina Valtonen.

"If anyone thinks that Putin will back down if we lay down our arms, they are mistaken. In Berlin, we must emphasize that we certainly hope Germany will play a very important role in this regard," Valtonen stated.

🔹 Speaking to journalists on Monday, President Zelenskyy expressed his expectation that Ukraine’s partners will extend an invitation for the country to join NATO within its internationally recognized borders.

The President emphasized, “No matter the circumstances, legally, no one will recognize the occupied territories as part of another state.”

He also clarified that Ukraine is not considering NATO membership in exchange for ceding the occupied territories.

🔸 In response to Russia’s hybrid war, Poland is closing the Consulate General of the Russian Federation in Poznan, announced Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski.

“Russia is waging a hybrid war, carrying out sabotage attempts on Polish territory. As the Foreign Minister, I am obligated to respond decisively. The first step is closing the consulate. We will not back down. We are protecting the Republic of Poland and its citizens,” Sikorski stated.

🔹 Ukraine is ready to discuss all possible options for resolving the conflict, provided they support Ukraine's territorial integrity, the inviolability of its borders, and full sovereignty, said Head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak, in his column for the Finnish Swedish-language newspaper Hufvudstadsbladet.

"Ukraine, as a victim of aggression, cannot accept any changes that threaten its existence, its right to self-determination, or the human dignity of the Ukrainian people," he emphasized.

🔸 The DPRK is preparing two units for the war in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in an evening address.

"We have information about the training of two military units from North Korea—potentially two brigades consisting of 6,000 troops each," the president emphasized.

He added that Ukrainians are ready for this challenge, but stressed the importance of partners not shying away from it.

🔹 Türkiye secretly banned the export of military goods to Russia after a warning from the U.S., reports the Financial Times.

According to three informed sources, Türkiye recently imposed a ban on over 40 categories of American-origin goods, including microchips, remote control systems, and other items listed as "high priority" by the U.S., UK, EU, and Japan. The list comprises advanced electronics, processors, memory cards, machinery, and other equipment used in weapons production.

The ban is now enforced through Türkiye's customs system, which blocks these exports to Russia, a departure from previous practices. Türkiye had already restricted the export of similar goods from the EU, a ban that remains in place.

"We believe the Turkish government has acknowledged our concerns. We are optimistic about enhanced cooperation moving forward," said U.S. Assistant Secretary of Commerce Matthew Axelrod.

🔸 The U.S. Treasury Department has announced plans for "strong new sanctions" targeting countries that assist Russia in its war against Ukraine. The upcoming measures will focus on individuals and entities that aid the Kremlin's military efforts, specifically intermediaries in third countries supplying Russia with critical resources for its armed forces.

The head of the Treasury emphasized that the sanctions aim to disrupt Russia's access to essential military supplies and weaken its capacity to sustain the war.

🔹 French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu acknowledged the need to explore deploying non-nuclear deterrence forces in Ukraine. This consideration aligns with President Zelenskyy's "Victory Plan," which calls for providing Ukraine with various deterrent weapons, including long-range systems, to counter Russia's aggression.

😞 The United Nations reports that Ukraine's population has decreased by 10 million since the start of the full-scale war.

This decline is largely due to 6.7 million Ukrainians becoming refugees and the ongoing hostilities leading to casualties and a significant drop in the birth rate. According to UN statistics, the current birth rate in Ukraine is only 1 child per woman, far below the 2.1 children per woman needed to sustain the population.

🔸 NATO's Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that the organization anticipates receiving evidence from South Korea next week regarding the participation of North Korean forces in Russia's war against Ukraine. During a press conference with Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, Rutte mentioned that he had requested South Korea's President to send experts to present detailed information to the North Atlantic Council on the involvement of North Korean troops. He noted that the response to this request was positive, indicating a forthcoming report.

🔹 Following the closure of Russia’s Consulate General in Poznan, Poland has hinted at the possibility of expelling the Russian ambassador.

Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski disclosed that the Polish prosecutor’s office has gathered substantial evidence indicating Russian involvement in sabotage and hybrid warfare within Poland. Sikorski emphasized that Poland has already imposed restrictions on the movement of Russian diplomats, complicating any actions outside their official duties. While the expulsion of the ambassador has not yet occurred, Sikorski indicated that if such hostile activities persist, this step could be considered.

🔸 UN Secretary General António Guterres attended the BRICS summit in Kazan, while declining an invitation to the first Summit on Peace organized by Ukraine.

🔹 Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that approximately $1.1 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has been disbursed to Ukraine.

The funds will be allocated to cover essential non-military budgetary expenditures. This tranche follows the successful completion of the fifth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program, which totals $15.6 billion. Shmyhal expressed gratitude to the IMF for its ongoing support and noted that preparations for the next program review are already underway.

@MissConductUS the S.Korean machine gun robots are terrifying. If set to fully autonomous mode, they are like Terminator 😱. I never knew S.Korea had such a robust defence industry. It is not just Samsung Galaxy and K-pop!

Secretly wishing the UK could learn from them in implementing long term defence goals.

Live:Ukraine

🇪🇺The European Parliament has approved a €35 billion loan for Ukraine, funded by frozen Russian assets. The funds are set to be disbursed by the end of 2025

🔹 President Zelensky commented on the rumors regarding the dismissal of Budanov and Umerov, stating, “I had no intention of doing that. I wasn’t planning to replace Budanov. The rumors [about dismissal] were circulating, yes. There was also no question about Umerov.”

In late September 2024, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov dismissed two deputies of the DIU chief Kyrylo Budanov and removed the “Spetstechnoexport” company, which handled arms procurement, from the DIU’s jurisdiction.

Many Ukrainian media outlets interpreted this as a weakening of Budanov’s position and a potential preparation for his dismissal. There were also discussions in the media about Umerov’s possible resignation.

🇰🇵🪖 Ukraine has recorded the presence of North Korean military personnel in the occupied territories.

According to President Zelensky, these include officers and technical staff who arrived to assess the situation. Soldiers may follow them soon.

Zelensky suggests that Pyongyang is sending its military to the war in Ukraine “for money” from Russia.

🔹 The arrival of the first units of North Korean troops in the Kursk oblast is expected tomorrow, according to Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.

🇺🇦🇺🇸�* Ukraine does not seek to regain nuclear weapons, but instead should receive a “security umbrella,” President Zelensky emphasized.

He believes that when Ukraine gave up all its nuclear weapons in 1996, it should have become a NATO member in return. However, this did not happen, and now the country lacks the means to deter Putin.

Zelensky stated that a format such as a “NATO invitation” is crucial because it is extended to a country in its internationally recognized borders. Currently, Ukraine sees a consensus among most NATO countries, with some, like Germany, maintaining a more cautious stance.

⚡Ukraine's Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin has resigned, as announced by the Prosecutor General's Office.

He made this decision following a scandal involving the head of the Khmelnytsky Regional Medical and Social Expert Commission, Tetyana Krupa, who illegally issued fake disability certifications to men, including prosecutors.

"I fully support President Volodymyr Zelensky's stance that not only should all wrongful decisions regarding disability status and corresponding pensions and other benefits be annulled, but there should also be clear legislative and organizational changes, as well as personal accountability, including political responsibility. I am grateful to the President and the Verkhovna Rada for their trust. However, in this situation, I consider it appropriate to resign as Prosecutor General," Kostin stated.

🔸 President Zelensky believes that the winner of the U.S. presidential election will take certain steps regarding the Russia-Ukraine war before the official inauguration in January.

He noted that Russia’s willingness to negotiate depends on the outcome of the U.S. election.

“I think they will be closely watching U.S. policy on this issue. And the U.S. will show its stance very quickly after the election, in my opinion,” the president stated.

Zelensky mentioned that his meetings with both Harris and Trump were positive, but he would not compare them.

🇵🇱 Poland is closing the Russian consulate in Poznań.

In his tweet explaining the need for the closure, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski emphasized that Russia is engaged in hybrid warfare and attempting acts of sabotage on Polish territory.

🇯🇵Japan’s Ambassador to the UN: Referring to the situation in Ukraine as a ‘Ukraine Crisis’, or a ‘Ukraine War’ is misguided; Ukraine is defending itself against Russia’s aggression, which violates the UN Charter.

🔹 The United Nations has confirmeded_ that Secretary-General António Guterres will participate in the BRICS summit in Russia. He plans to hold several bilateral meetings, including one with President Putin, as reported by Russian media.*

The decision has been met with criticism from Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which noted that Guterres declined an invitation to attend the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, but accepted an invitation to Kazan from “war criminal Putin.” The ministry commented, “This is a misguided choice that does not advance peace and only harms the reputation of the United Nations.”

BRICS currently consists of nine countries, including China, India, and Brazil. The summit, which will take place in Kazan from October 22-24, is expected to host delegations from 36 countries. However, several invited world leaders, such as the presidents of Brazil, Serbia, and Cuba, as well as the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, have opted to send government representatives instead.

🔸 At the BRICS summit in Russia, Putin discussed the situation in Ukraine and “further contacts for continuing the dialogue” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. During the talks, the Kremlin leader stated that Moscow intends to continue strengthening coordination with Beijing across “all international platforms.”

🔹 Former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba highlighted a significant point:

“Everyone uses the word ‘victory,’ but no one wants to have an open conversation about what it really means. This is one of the problems in public and state communication.

Every citizen needs to have a conversation with themselves. I don’t exclude the possibility that many would agree: in the current reality, not losing is already a victory.

The generation that has lived here for the past 2.5 years has saved Ukraine from death. We have plenty of problems and dissatisfaction with ourselves, but we have already made history. This should give us the strength to move forward, not drive us into depression. Human lives cannot be brought back, but cities can be rebuilt, and schools and factories restarted. History has seen this a hundred times before.

If we get caught up in the narrative that ‘everything is bad, everything is lost,’ then the Russians will win with their imperialist mindset. Instead of being the generation that preserved Ukraine, we will join the ranks of countless previous generations that lost it.”

🇬🇧The United Kingdom will allocatete_ an additional $155 million for naval support to Ukraine.*

In addition, The UK is seeking partners for joint funding to deliver maritime drones and surveillance radars to help secure the grain corridor.

🔸 In exchange for sending soldiers, North Korea is receiving money and nuclear technology from Russia.

Accordingng*_ to the head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, North Korea has already dispatched at least 500 officers and three generals to Russia. By the end of October, North Korea plans to send an additional 2,600 troops to Russia’s Kursk region.

Unlike Russian troops, North Korean soldiers are highly motivated, driven by a rigid ideology, and aware that their families back home could face severe consequences if they fail to comply. This makes them effective at addressing “certain problems” for the Russians, and, as Budanov noted, their involvement raises significant concerns.

However, North Korean troops have not yet encountered the realities of modern warfare, where tactical strike drones play a dominant role. It will take them several weeks to adapt to these conditions.

🔹The combat losses of the enemy from February 24, 2022 to October 23, 2024

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-22-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes on the night of October 21 to 22 targeting distilleries in Russia that reportedly manufacture products for the Russian military.
• South Korea may be considering directly sending weapons and intelligence personnel to Ukraine in response to the reported deployment of North Korean troops to Russia to participate in Russia's war in Ukraine.
• Thirty-six world leaders, including from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India, South Africa, and Iran, arrived in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan, for the 16th annual BRICS summit held from October 22 to 24 during which Russia will likely seek to establish mechanisms to enhance its war effort in Ukraine.
• A recent Russian opinion poll suggests that Russian President Vladimir Putin enjoys widespread support among Russian citizens even though many do not agree with some of the Kremlin's policies, including about the war.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Kurakhove and Vuhledar.
• Russian forces conducted multilateral military exercises with international partners. Iran hosted Russian and Omani naval forces as part of the "IMEX 2024" naval drills, which took place between October 19-20 in the Indian Ocean.

@DesdamonasHandkerchief I will do Kyiv Independent. Appreciate your plugging away daily

Thank you 🙏 @blueshoes

Sorry all feel like I’m not pulling my weight and wish I could help out with the updates but having a bit of a rough time mental health wise (OCD is a bitch!) appreciate you all very much ❤️

to everyone struggling health-wise.

And more to everyone struggling at all, regardless of reason.

Let me know if you want me to pick anything up.

Well, much as I'm sure you're all riveted by that it's obviously the wrong thread and I've asked for deletion 🙄

I do love Slough Horses 😂

We all need a bit of escapism @Igotjelly 😂

Nooo! Don't delete! Always nice to have book recommendations!

I have two more thoughts to offer on the topic of NK troops and Ukraine. The NK troops that have arrived in Russia are reportedly on their way to Kursk. If they remain there and fight the Ukrainians on Russian soil, it provides political cover for Putin, as they are not fighting with the Russians in Ukraine. But as we all know, forces are fungible. They can take the place of Russian troops in Kursk, freeing them for duty in Ukraine.

For more context on South Korea, they are currently the 10th largest arms exporter in the world. It's the stated policy goal of the President of South Korea to become the 4th largest arms exporter by 2027. They have the support of the US to do so. Some background here:

Will South Korea’s Defense Industry Boom Change U.S.-ROK Military Relations? - South Korea's defense industry growth signifies opportunities for increased security independence, but is unlikely to shake up the country's military partnership with the US

Nothing sells arms like proof of effectiveness in combat. That's why HIMARS, Javelins and Bradley IFVs are back ordered for years. Buyers see how well they do in real combat and want them. If the South Koreans can get their kit into Ukraine and demonstrate how good it is, it will be a major economic boost for their export sales.

Kyiv Independent Telegram highlights

⚡️Russian attacks ( kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-10-injure-42-over-past-day/ ) against Ukraine kill 10, injure 42 over past day.

⚡️UK to provide ( kyivindependent.com/uk-to-provide-ukraine-with-2-9-billion-loan-from-frozen-russian-assets/) Ukraine with $2.9 billion military loan, to be repaid with proceeds from frozen Russian assets. Kyiv will be able to invest in key equipment to fight Russia, such as artillery, air defense, and wider equipment support, the statement read.

⚡️ North Korea denies sending troops to join Russia's war in Ukraine, dismisses 'groundless rumors (https://kyivindependent.com/north-korea-denies-alleged-troops-sending-to-fight-russian-war-as-groundless-rumors/)'.

⚡️Germany 'skeptical' (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-not-discussing-nato-membership-in-exchange-for-the-occupied-territories-zelensky-says/ )

⚡️G7 plans to keep Russian assets frozen (kyivindependent.com/g7-plans-to-keep-russian-assets-frozen-after-russias-war-in-ukraine-ends-media-says/) after war in Ukraine ends, Nikkei reports.

⚡️North Korea has sent pilots (kyivindependent.com/north-korea-has-sent-pilots-to-russia-to-join-its-war-in-ukraine-media-reports/) to Russia to join its war in Ukraine, Newsweek reports.

⚡️Zelensky signs decree (kyivindependent.com/medical-examination-commissions-for-determining-severity-of-disability-to-be-eliminated-at-end-of-2024/) to liquidate medical examination commissions amid the fraudulent acquisition of disability status by officials through corruption schemes.

⚡️Putin, Xi discuss war in Ukraine at BRICS summit (kyivindependent.com/putin-xi-discuss-war-in-ukraine-at-brics-summit-in-russia/) in Russia. Russia hopes to increase cooperation with China on "all international platforms," Putin said.

⚡️North Korean troops to arrive in Kursk tomorrow (kyivindependent.com/north-korean-troops-to-arrive-in-kursk-tomorrow-military-intelligence-says/), military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said, though he did not specify how many would be deployed.

⚡️Zelensky urges allies to increase pressure (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-urges-allies-to-increase-pressure-on-north-korea/) on North Korea. Two North Korean brigades of up to 6,000 personnel each are currently undergoing training in Russia, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address on Oct. 22, citing military intelligence reports. "We expect a firm, concrete response from the world."

⚡️Turkey quietly curbs (kyivindependent.com/turkey-quietly-curbs-military-goods-exports-to-russia-following-us-warning-ft-reports/) military goods exports to Russia following US warning, FT reports. In recent weeks, Ankara updated its customs systems to stop the export of over 40 categories of U.S.-made items deemed critical to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

⚡️Russia-linked disinformation campaign spreads (kyivindependent.com/russia-linked-disinformation-campaign-spreads-false-claims-about-tim-walz-us-intelligence-officials-say/) false claims about Tim Walz, US intelligence officials say. Analysts connected the disinformation to Russian operations aimed at undermining the Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.

⚡️ Russia helping North Korea with sanctions evasion, nuclear technology for smaller tactical nuclear weapons and submarine missile-launch systems (kyivindependent.com/budanov-north-korea-nuclear/) in return for soldiers, arms, Budanov told The Economist.

⚡️Zelensky preparing (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-preparing-ukraines-action-plan-to-withstand-war-source/) action plan for Ukraine to withstand war, source says.

⚡️UK to allocate (kyivindependent.com/uk-naval-coalition/) $155 million for naval coalition to protect Ukraine's ports. The move comes as a response to Russia stepping up attacks against port infrastructure in southern Odesa Oblast that resulted in damaged civilian ships and casualties.

⚡️SBU claims it foiled terror attack coordinated by Russian intelligence (kyivindependent.com/sbu-claims-it-foiled-planned-terror-attack-in-kyiv-detained-suspects/) in Kyiv, detaining two Ukrainians . The suspects planned to detonate improvised explosives in a crowded place in Ukraine's capital to cause "the maximum number of civilian deaths" and sow panic.

⚡️Ukraine receives (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-receives-1-1-billion-from-imf/) $1.1 billion from IMF. "The funds will be used to cover important non-military budget spending," Shmyhal said.

⚡️North Korean troops are in Russia, US defense secretary Lloyd Austin confirms (kyivindependent.com/north-korean-troops-arrive-in-russia-pentagon-chief-confirms/). "What exactly they are doing? Left to be seen. These are things that we need to sort out,".

⚡️ France's first batch of Mirage 2000 jets (kyivindependent.com/mirage-2000-first-batch/) to include 3 planes, according to La Tribune. The planes will be equipped with ground strike capabilities, namely SCALP/Storm Shadow long-range missiles and French guided bombs AASM Hammer. @notimagain

⚡️3 companies of Russian soldiers killed, injured in assaults (kyivindependent.com/around-3-companies-of-russian-soldiers-killed-injured-in-assaults-on-selydove-natinal-guard-says/) on Selydove in Donetsk Oblast over the past day, National Guard says.

⚡️North Korean troops dispatch was secret clause (kyivindependent.com/russia-north-korea-troops-wsj/) of Moscow-Pyongyang pact, WSJ reports, citing an unnamed former Russian intelligence agent familiar with the matter.

Terrorist attack on Turkish aerospace company Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) near Ankara, Turkey. TUSAS develops attack combat aircraft, helicopters, UAVs and other aircraft. Explosions, guns and potential hostage situation. No one claiming responsibility yet.