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Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

1000 replies

MagicFox · 10/10/2024 15:59

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
247
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 29/11/2024 23:09

Things are interesting in Syria. Reports that Aleppo is under rebel control. Aleppo is the country's second biggest city!

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 09:37

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️Zelensky appoints (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-appoints-new-ground-forces-commander/) new Ground Forces of Ukraine commander.
President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed General Mykhailo Drapatyi as Ukraine's Ground Forces commander, the president announced on Nov. 29.

⚑️Zelensky suggests (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-suggests/) ending 'hot phase' of war in exchange for NATO membership without occupied territories. [as you said, @WinterMorn
"If we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should quickly take under NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control. That's what we need to do first, and then Ukraine can get back the other parts of its territory in a diplomatic way," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with Sky News, which was published on Nov. 29.
According to the president, Kyiv has never considered such a proposal, since "no one has ever offered that to us officially."

⚑️Syrskyi orders (kyivindependent.com/syrsky-orders-to-deploy-more-reserves-to-pokrovsk-kurakhove-directions-in-donetsk-oblast/) deployment of more reserves to Pokrovsk, Kurakhove directions in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian forces stationed near the towns of Pokrovsk and Kurakhove in Donetsk Oblast will be additionally supplied with reserves, ammunition, weapons, and military equipment, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Nov. 29.

⚑️North Korea’s Kim pledges unwavering support (kyivindependent.com/north-koreas-kim-pledges-unwavering-support-for-russias-war-in-ukraine-media-reports/) for Russia’s war in Ukraine, media reports.

⚑️Ukraine urges (kyivindependent.com/kyiv-urges-nato-to-issue-membership-invitation-next-week-reuters-reports/) NATO to issue membership invitation next week, Reuters reports.

⚑️ North Korea has given Russia more than 100 ballistic missiles (kyivindependent.com/north-korea-has-given-russia-more-than-100-ballistic-missiles-5-million-artillery-shells-ukraine-says/), 5 million artillery shells, Ukraine says.
In comments to Interfax-Ukraine, Ukraine's military intelligence also said Pyongyang had begun supplying Moscow with artillery systems last month.

Trump's pick for Ukraine envoy backs 'peace through strength (kyivindependent.com/trumps-pick-for-ukraine-envoy-backs-peace-through-strength-security-guarantees/),' security guarantees
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's Nov. 27 decision to choose Keith Kellogg as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia is not ideal for Kyiv but is an acceptable and reasonable choice for Ukraine, analysts say.
Kellogg has co-authored a peace plan that would freeze the front line in Ukraine, take NATO's accession off the table for an extended period, and partially lift sanctions imposed on Russia.
At the same time, Kellogg has stated that Ukraine should negotiate from a position of strength.

Read the full article here. (kyivindependent.com/trumps-pick-for-ukraine-envoy-backs-peace-through-strength-security-guarantees/)

⚑️Turkey won't support (kyivindependent.com/turkey-assures-that-it-wont-support-peace-plan-with-territorial-concessions-lawmaker-says/) peace plan with territorial concessions, Ukrainian lawmaker says.
Turkey won't support a peace plan that involves freezing the war in Ukraine and Kyiv making territorial concessions to Moscow, Ukrinform reported on Nov. 29, citing Ukrainian lawmaker Ahtem Chiygoz.

Belarus Weekly: Lukashenko threatens internet shutdown in case of protests during 2025 elections (kyivindependent.com/belarus-weekly-lukashenko-threatens-internet-shutdown-in-case-of-protests-during-2025-elections/)

⚑️Woman receives 15-year sentence (kyivindependent.com/woman-receives-15-year-sentence-for-aiding-russian-strikes-on-zhytomyr-oblast/) for aiding Russian strikes on Zhytomyr Oblast.
A Ukrainian court has sentenced a 43-year-old woman to 15 years in prison for aiding Russian military operations and attempting to flee to Russia.

⚑️8 Ukrainian children return (kyivindependent.com/8-ukrainian-children-return-home-from-russian-occupied-territories/) home from Russian-occupied territories.

⚑️Ukrainian poet Myroslav Herasymovych killed (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-poet-myroslav-herasymovych-killed-on-front-line/) on front line.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 09:45

UNTED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Iran Could Develop Nuclear Weapons Within Months, Says French Intelligence Chief
Iran may be capable of creating nuclear weapons in the coming months, Nicolas Lerner, head of France's foreign intelligence service, warned during a meeting in Geneva. The discussion involved Iranian and European officials and focused on Tehran's nuclear ambitions and its growing ties with Moscow, Reuters reports.

Romania's presidential election results under scrutiny; possible rerun on December 15
The first round of Romania's presidential election could be rerun on December 15 if the Constitutional Court annuls the results, according to CEC head Toni Greblă.
The Constitutional Court has ordered a recount of votes from the election, in which far-right candidate Călin Georgescu emerged victorious, citing suspicions of fraud.
Meanwhile, several other candidates have demanded an investigation into Georgescu's campaign and its funding sources.

Russian airlines report record number of accidents in 2024
The number of accidents involving Russian airlines in 2024 has reached its highest level in at least six years. @notimagain
The most significant rise was observed with Superjet 100 aircraft, accounting for 56 incidentsβ€”the same number as Boeing planes, even though the latter are nearly twice as common in the fleets of major Russian airlines (188 versus 93, per Rosaviatsia).
Engine issues (30%) and landing gear malfunctions (20%) were the most frequent problems, alongside failures in hydraulic systems, brakes, and navigation equipment.
Experts attribute this surge to Western sanctions, which have disrupted the supply of critical parts and equipment needed for aircraft maintenance and repair in Russia.

The DPRK has transferred more than 100 units of various types of equipment to Russia, including 170-mm self-propelled guns M-1989 and 240-mm MLRS M-1991. Additionally, North Korea has supplied at least 5 million artillery shells and 100 ballistic missiles KN-23/24.

Russia Faces Economic Strains: Labor Shortages, Declining Revenues, and Industry Struggles
▫️ Coal Industry in Crisis
Russia's coal regions are grappling with plummeting revenues. Kemerovo region, responsible for 60% of the country's hard coal and 80% of its coking coal, has seen income tax revenues collapse by 59%, or 2.5 times. Similar declines are reported in Buryatia and the Jewish Autonomous Region.
According to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, overall income tax revenues across regions dropped by 7% (357 billion rubles) as of November 20. Rosstat reports that half of Russian coal companies are now operating at a loss, with the sector recording a negative net financial result of 91.3 billion rubles for January–September, compared to a 350-billion-ruble profit a year earlier.
The European Union's total coal embargo and reduced demand from Asian markets have led to an 11.4% drop in coal exports from January to July, totaling 112.6 million tons.
▫️ Labor Shortages Across Industries
The Russian industrial sector faces a severe shortage of skilled workers, exacerbated by mobilization efforts that have removed hundreds of thousands of young men from the workforce. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko estimates an additional 1.8 million workers will be needed by 2030.
By early 2024, 85% of companies reported hiring difficulties, according to a SuperJob survey. The Russian Academy of Sciences estimates the total labor shortage at five million people.
▫️ Shopping Centers on the Brink
The recent hike in the Central Bank’s key rate to 21% has pushed shopping center owners closer to bankruptcy. Vice President of the Union of Shopping Centers, Pavel Lyulin, warns of skyrocketing loan costs, tenant outflows, and increased tax burdens. At least 200 shopping centers are at risk of bankruptcy in 2025, analysts predict.
▫️ Developers at Risk
The construction industry is also in peril. Many developers transitioned to floating-rate loans, leaving them vulnerable to the Central Bank's rapid rate increases. Experts warn of potential bankruptcies among both residential and commercial real estate developers, threatening housing projects and leaving equity holders exposed.
▫️ Putin Dismisses Business Concerns
Despite mounting economic challenges, President Vladimir Putin remains indifferent to business grievances over the high key rate. Supporting the Central Bank’s decision to raise the rate to 21%β€”with expectations of a further hike to 23% in Decemberβ€”Putin defended the measure.
β€œSome experts believe a key rate of 21% is inflated given 8.5% inflation. If we’re talking about rising prices, we need to consider whether this rate is truly excessive,” he stated.
Russia now ranks second globally in terms of the real interest rate (adjusted for inflation). However, inflation remains stubbornly high at 8.6% annually, likely exceeding the Central Bank's revised forecast by year-end.

Why Russia and North Korea’s Alliance May Pose Grave Risks to Indo-Pacific Stability https://united24media.com/world/russia-and-north-koreas-alliance-may-pose-grave-risks-to-indo-pacific-stability-4100

Majority of EU Citizens Support Military Aid to Ukraine, Poll Shows
A new survey reveals strong European backing for Ukraine amidst Russian aggression. Key findings include:
▫️87% of respondents support providing humanitarian aid to those affected by the war.
▫️60% approve of granting Ukraine EU candidate status.
▫️58% agree with EU financing for military equipment supplies to Ukraine.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, urged member states to accelerate military assistance to Ukraine, emphasizing the urgency of the situation and the need for transparency about the costs involved. Speaking to Euronews at the end of his term, Borrell outlined key points about the challenges and responsibilities facing Europe:
β€’ Russian pressure is unrelenting. Despite Ukrainian resistance, Russia continues its steady offensive.
β€’ Ukraine lags in supplies. North Korea has provided Russia with significantly more support than Ukraine has received from Europe.
β€’ Russia is not isolated. The BRICS summit in Kazan demonstrated that Russia maintains international alliances.
β€’ Numbers matter. While Europe has pledged 1 million shells, Russia is producing 800,000 rounds monthly.
β€’ Urgency is critical. Borrell criticized the EU’s slow pace, calling for immediate action instead of long-term planning.
β€’ EU cannot replace U.S. aid. A reduction in U.S. support could severely impact Ukraine’s defense.
β€’ Stockpiles are depleted. Former Soviet weapon stocks were crucial but are now exhausted.
β€’ Daily support is essential. Weapons, supplies, and payments must reach Ukraine without interruption.
β€’ Winning domestic support is vital. European governments must be honest with citizens about the costs and the stakes, ensuring public understanding and backing for continued aid.
Borrell concluded by urging member states to act decisively, emphasizing that the cost of inaction would far outweigh the financial burden of supporting Ukraine.

Angela Merkel calls for considering diplomatic solutions to end the war in Ukraine

Ukrainian freediver Kateryna Sadurska sets another world record
Sadurska reached a depth of 82 meters, surpassing her previous record by two meters. She is now the first woman in the world to dive to such a depth. Her earlier record was set during the World Freediving Championships, where she claimed gold.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 52
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 09:47

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Mykhailo Drapatyi Appointed Commander of Ukraine’s Ground Forces
It was Mykhailo Drapatyi who made the legendary breakthrough in 2014 on an infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) through a separatist checkpoint in Mariupol.
He also played a key role in the liberation of the right bank of Kherson and the defense of Kharkiv during Russia’s full-scale invasion.

"Ukraine asked to equip 10 military brigades, but the West has only fully equipped 2.5 brigades," β€” Zelensky
"They talk about mobilization, but the real problem is with the 10 brigades that our partners have not equipped," he said.

Resilience and Survival: How Ukraine’s Border City Lives Under Constant Russian Air Strikes
Exclusive report by the Kyiv Post from Sumy, a city near the border with Russia’s Kursk region, subjected to devastating air strikes.
www.kyivpost.com/videos/43073

Journalists have discovered a camp in Belarus in which Russians tortured captured Ukrainians before their transfer deeper into Russia, including children, demonstrating complicity of the Lukashenko regime in war crimes.
www.kyivpost.com/post/43041

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 09:52

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

After two waves of attacks, the situation with Ukraine’s energy grid has significantly worsened at a critical point in the war, according to Reuters.

Ukraine may have to leave Pokrovsk in coming months – Major General Christian Freuding (www.bundeswehr.de/de/aktuelles/meldungen/nachgefragt-krise-krieg-konflikte)
Freuding assesses that β€œRussia currently holds the military initiative on all fronts and in all areasβ€œ, particularly in the Donbas, which has been the focal point of fighting for several months.

❗️Key points of Trump envoy Keith Kellogg’s peace plan – CNN (edition.cnn.com/2024/11/29/europe/trump-new-ukraine-envoy-analysis-intl?cid=ios_app)
β–ͺ️freeze the front line, establish a ceasefire, and implement a demilitarized zone.
β–ͺ️sanction relief: Russia would receive limited sanctions relief for agreeing to freeze the front line, with full relief contingent on signing a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine.
β–ͺ️tax on Russian energy exports, with proceeds allocated to Ukraine’s reconstruction.
β–ͺ️delay Ukraine’s NATO membership indefinitely.
β–ͺ️Ukraine would not be required to renounce claims to occupied territories but must pursue their return through diplomatic means only. [so, in other words just give them up]

Zelensky appoints Colonel Pavlo Palisa as Deputy Head of the Presidential Office
Colonel Pavlo Palisa, commander of the 93rd Brigade β€œKholodnyi Yarβ€œ, has been appointed as Deputy Head of the Presidential Office.

πŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Zelensky held a phone conversation with Scholz, during which the Chancellor shared details of his talks with Putin.

A powerful explosion occurred in temporarily occupied Crimea
An explosion was reported near the village of Vityno, close to Yevpatoria, at a site presumed to house a Russian surface-to-air missile system. Local residents noted a strong blaze and a series of detonations.

An FSB agent was detained after setting up an β€œobservation post” in the attic of a high-rise building to adjust strikes on Mykolaiv
The perpetrator, a former lecturer at a local university, identified air defense missile positions and mobile fire groups of the Defense Forces, redirecting enemy strikes to bypass Ukrainian air defense. To achieve this, he installed a concealed video camera in the attic of the building where he lived.
The individual also aimed to estimate the number and types of Ukrainian military equipment moving toward the front lines.
He faces life imprisonment with confiscation of property, according to the Security Service of Ukraine.

blueshoes · 30/11/2024 14:11

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-29-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to laud the technical specifications of the recently launched Oreshnik ballistic missile and threaten additional Oreshnik strikes against Ukraine as part of an intensified Russian reflexive control campaign aimed at forcing the West and Ukraine into self-deterrence.
  • There is nothing particularly novel about the capabilities of the Oreshnik missile, and US and Ukrainian officials indicated that the Oreshnik missile does not portend a Russian escalation in the war. Putin's constant flaunting of the Oreshnik and Russian missile capabilities therefore remains part of the Kremlin's reflexive control information operation and is unlikely to presage the development of particularly novel Russian deep strike capabilities.
  • The Russian military is considering establishing a separate service branch for unmanned systems, likely as part of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) in a belated effort to catch up to the establishment of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) in February 2024.
  • Russian forces conducted a large series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine’s energy grid and major defense industrial facilities on the nights of November 27 to 28 and 28 to 29.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against four Russian air defense systems and radars in occupied Ukraine and two oil depots in Russia on November 28 and 29.
  • Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov made an unannounced visit to Pyongyang, North Korea on November 29 amid intensifying Russian-North Korean cooperation.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly appointed Colonel General Rustam Muradov as First Deputy Commander of the Russian Ground Forces.
  • The Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Office opened additional investigations on November 28 into the apparent Russian execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the appointment of Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi as Ukraine's new Ground Forces Commander on November 29, replacing Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk.
  • Georgians protested in Tbilisi, Georgia in response to an initiative by the ruling pro-Kremlin Georgian Dream party to delay European Union (EU) accession negotiations, prompting the Russian information space to resurrect information operations falsely framing the protests and Georgian opposition parties as potential threats to Georgian sovereignty.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Vuhledar.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, in Toretsk, near Pokrovsk, and near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian opposition outlets Mediazona and BBC Russian Service reported that they have confirmed that at least 80,937 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in February 2022.
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 17:55

Russian planes have bombed Aleppo which indicates that the rebels are doing well.

Rebels have entered the city of Hama. Gunfire has been heard in Damascus.

Assad is supposed to be in Russia now.

Russia's control of Syria is slipping at least at this moment.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 30/11/2024 18:56

Shame Russia still has enough man power to intervene but there will never be a better time to depose Assad than now.

Igotjelly · 30/11/2024 20:00

Hearing that Assad has fled to Russia with his family.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 20:49

Am seeing reports that it's ISIS offshoots who are fighting against the regime.

Oh boy.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 30/11/2024 20:50

I am unsure how much of an improvement they are from the point of view of the ordinary Syrian in the ruins.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 20:52

And for the women, if they do take over Syria.

It's the medieval ages come again.

Igotjelly · 30/11/2024 20:55

Yes agree I’m not sure it’s a change for the better but from Ukraine’s point of view it’s another thing keeping Russia occupied.

UnsympatheticCharacter · 30/11/2024 20:58

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 20:49

Am seeing reports that it's ISIS offshoots who are fighting against the regime.

Oh boy.

Here’s a tongue in cheek but also quite serious graph, showing some of the local and international alliances!

Ukraine Invasion: Part 52
UnsympatheticCharacter · 30/11/2024 20:59

Igotjelly · 30/11/2024 20:00

Hearing that Assad has fled to Russia with his family.

Fake news:

x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1862961030365622537

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 21:03

John Simpson's saying the same.

It would be mildly amusing in a malicious way if Putin'd given Assad orders to go back (though Im sure it didnt happen like that)

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 21:12

Reports that Christians are trying to flee rebel-taken areas, some more successfully than others.

MissConductUS · 30/11/2024 22:04

The buzz in military circles is that Russia has moved so many troops and other military resources out of Syria that the opposition is simply moving into the power vacuum.

I have no solid sources for that, but it makes sense militarily.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 30/11/2024 22:08

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 20:49

Am seeing reports that it's ISIS offshoots who are fighting against the regime.

Oh boy.

Oh God what a mess πŸ€¦β€β™€οΈ

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 30/11/2024 22:14

Ah finally, I've found people discussing Syria sensibly. I knew this thread would have something but I tried to start a Syria questions thread so I didn't hop on to this one and derail it. Sadly all I got was a troll and a basic post that didn't answer anything.

How invested is Russia in Syria do we think? Unless it is an easy win I think they will let it collapse and go to HTS given Ukraine is their focus.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 22:33

Other posters will know more!! I am only saying what I'm aware of with a guess for the future.

As far as I'm aware Russia was heavily invested in Syria and their support allowed Assad to win over the (initially peaceful) protesters who wanted freedom during the Arab Spring.

Since then apparently Assad turned more towards Iran, which has annoyed Russia.

Syrian civilians went through hell and a large proportion of the educated and more well-off left the country to rebuild their lives elsewhere.

Russia is still heavily invested in theory (as far as I'm aware) but with the intense efforts they are putting into gaining ground in the East of Ukraine, many forces were withdrawn and less effective Generals were sent there.

The very experienced John Simpson thinks that Assad will hang onto power (although apparently there is a coup attempt in Damascus going on right now).

Very unfortunately a lot of the rebels seem to be ISIS offshoots with the same level of civilization that ISIS showed.

If Assad hangs onto power and next year there is a peace in Ukraine, I suspect that Russia will be trying hard to regain its influence in Syria.

MissConductUS · 30/11/2024 22:36

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 30/11/2024 22:14

Ah finally, I've found people discussing Syria sensibly. I knew this thread would have something but I tried to start a Syria questions thread so I didn't hop on to this one and derail it. Sadly all I got was a troll and a basic post that didn't answer anything.

How invested is Russia in Syria do we think? Unless it is an easy win I think they will let it collapse and go to HTS given Ukraine is their focus.

Russia needs access to ports in Syria to maintain its military presence in the ME, particularly in Libya. Maintaining a military presence in Syria also allows it to support other allies like Iran.

The stakes are higher in Ukraine, but they really don’t want to lose Syria.

Edited to add, don’t worry about derailing this thread. The two conflicts are closely linked.

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 30/11/2024 22:43

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress oh yes, I would go so far to say that there is no "good" group to take over Syria in the event al-Assad is deposed and certainly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have an awful ideology and terrible practises.

I note with interest what @MissConductUS said about Russia contributing to a power vacuum. The same applies to Iran and Hezbollah. Both were involved in Syria and both are now busy in the wider Israeli conflict. Seems to be a confluence of events that has led to quite an opportunity.

I'm sure someone must have predicted this somewhere. I'd be curious to know how organised Assad & allies' response is or if they've been caught on the back foot.

I really don't think anyone bar HTS and al-Assad have any appetite for further fighting.

It does make me wonder, do tyrants not get tired of the constant threat and, in some instances, the constant fighting? Once you've corrupted a place just take your money and run!

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 30/11/2024 22:54

They tend to flee just ahead of the avenging forces don't they generally. Idi Amin did that! Truly vile being that he was. Pinochet. Didn't the military rulers of Pakistan also eventually allow elections which voted them out of power? very hazily

MMBaranova · 30/11/2024 23:17

Tartus: it's best to think of it as a facility rather than a base. There have been moves to upgrade it in recent years. And talks about moves to upgrade it further. It is a Kwik Fit for ships with issues, a store and a geopolitical presence.

This is from 2021.

Russia Expands Military Facilities in Syria

This puff piece video from 'The Kalashnikova Show', English translation voice-over, is also three years old and you do get a glimpse of the inside of a repair building and the Orthodox church and some nonchalant grenade throwing. When you see news-related satellite images about the base you are usually shown the whole port of Tartus. The 'base' is part of the northernmost pier inside the breakwater and an area for buildings to the east. The military supplies being unloaded in this video are coming in at the port not the base. The rest of the port is split between Syrian naval and commercial activities.

https://vk.com/search?q=tartus%20naval%20base&z=video-199873421_456242431

Russia Expands Military Facilities in Syria

Move comes only weeks after Russian military extended one of the runways at Hmeimim airbase, adding to its military foothold in eastern Mediterranean

https://www.voanews.com/a/middle-east_russia-expands-military-facilities-syria/6205742.html

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