Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trump taps (kyivindependent.com/trump-taps-retired-general-keith-kellogg-for-ukraine-peace-envoy/) retired General Keith Kellogg for Ukraine peace envoy. In June, Reuters reported that Kellogg and another Trump's top advisor, Fred Fleitz, proposed him a plan that would cease military aid to Ukraine unless it agrees to hold peace negotiations with Russia.

⚡️Europe in 'actual war' (kyivindependent.com/europe-in-actual-war-with-russia-former-uk-intelligence-chief-says/) with Russia, former UK intelligence chief says.
"I think we have to face up to the fact that the Russians think they're in a state of war with us," Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6, told Sky News on Nov. 27.

⚡️Russia launches mass missile attack (kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-mass-missile-attack-against-ukraines-power-grid/) against Ukraine's power grid.

⚡️Baltic, Nordic countries and Poland to step up (kyivindependent.com/baltic-nordic-countries-poland-to-step-up-support-to-ukraine-in-coming-months/) support to Ukraine 'in coming months.'
The heads of government of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Norway, Poland, and Sweden agreed to strengthen their support to Ukraine in the coming months to counter Russia's full-scale war during a summit in Harpsund on Nov. 27.
"In the coming months, we will step up our support, including to the Ukrainian defense industry, and we will invest in making more ammunition available to Ukraine," the nations' joint statement read.

⚡️Biden unlikely to deliver (kyivindependent.com/biden-unlikely-to-deliver-full-planned-multibillion-dollar-aid-to-ukraine-before-term-ends-wsj-reports/) full planned multibillion-dollar aid to Ukraine before term ends, WSJ reports. The Pentagon has reached its monthly limit on weapons shipments and is facing logistical challenges in delivering arms to Ukraine.

⚡️Key commitments from NATO's July summit in Washington, including air defense systems and other military support, have not yet been fully implemented, President Volodymyr Zelensky told NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Nov. 27. (https://kyivindependent.com/some-commitments-from-nato-summit-in-july-remain-unfulfilled-zelensky-says/)

⚡️US urges (kyivindependent.com/us-pushes-ukraine-to-lower-draft-age-to-18-amid-troop-shortage-ap-reports/) Ukraine to lower draft age to 18 amid troop shortage, AP reports.

⚡️White House preparing $725 million (kyivindependent.com/white-house-preparing-725-million-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-reuters-reports/) military aid package for Ukraine incl landmines, drones, Stinger missiles, and ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS): Reuters.

⚡️North Korea supports (kyivindependent.com/north-korea-supports-russian-attacks-on-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-umerov-says/) Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Umerov says.
North Korean forces are "actively supporting" Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Nov. 27.

⚡️ Slovak PM Robert Fico accepts Putin's invitation (kyivindependent.com/fico-victory-day-moscow/) to Moscow Victory Day celebrations.

⚡️ NGO warns (kyivindependent.com/moas/) that lack of funding threatens critical medical evacuation work in Ukraine.
The international humanitarian organization MOAS's front-line medical evacuation operation is "on the verge of extinction" due to a lack of funding, the group said on Nov. 27, appealing to the international community to support their work.

⚡️Ukraine approves (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-approves-homemade-oncilla-shturm-armored-personnel-carrier-for-military-use/) homemade Oncilla-Shturm armored personnel carrier for military use.

⚡️ Ex-Minister Kuleba skeptical (kyivindependent.com/kuleba-trump/) about peace prospects during Trump's presidency.

Opinion: Georgescu’s rise exposes the fragility of Romania’s pro-European consensus (https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-georgescus-rise-exposes-the-fragility-of-romanias-pro-european-consensus/)

Vertep, a centuries-old Ukrainian Christmas tradition (kyivindependent.com/explaining-ukraine-vertep-a-ukrainian-christmas-tradition/)
The tradition dates back to the 16th-17th centuries and is still practiced across Ukraine today around the Christmas and New Year’s holidays.
Originally staged as a traveling puppet theater, it is now performed by carolers who dress up in elaborate costumes and sing songs blending religious and folk themes. The colorful casts can include up to 40 characters, ranging from religious figures, shepherds, and peasants to animals.

Kyiv Independent launches winter merch collection (store.kyivindependent.com/collections/winter-collection) celebrating Ukrainian traditions

⚡️Russian attacks across Ukraine kill (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-5-injure-25-over-past-day/) at least 5, injure 25 over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪
■ Engagements, casualties & equipment losses all below 7-day average
■ However, artillery & special equipment losses are well above average
■ Increased 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes but fewer airstrikes & only 2 🇺🇦 strikes reported

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 European Parliament Approves New European Commission
The European Parliament has approved the new European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen. Formed after the 2024 European elections, it will begin work on December 1.

European Parliament approves EU budget for 2025, including €15.2 billion for Ukraine

The ruble has fallen to its lowest level in two years, as Russia’s economy comes under growing pressure from multiple factors. Politico highlights that low oil prices, new sanctions targeting Russian companies, and escalating government spending on the war in Ukraine are driving the currency’s decline.

82% of South Koreans oppose providing military aid to Ukraine — Reuters.
Meanwhile, nearly all respondents agree that cooperation between Russia and North Korea poses a significant threat.

Ukraine and South Korea to deepen security cooperation
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol announced plans to strengthen security ties with Ukraine following a meeting with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.

Putin threatens to use Oreshnik missile on “decision-making centers in Kyiv”
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that the Oreshnik missile could target “decision-making centers in Kyiv,” claiming its power reduces everything at the explosion’s epicenter “into elementary particles, essentially turning into dust.”

How Russia Continues Shipping Oil to the EU Despite Sanctions | UP Investigation
In the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ineffectiveness of global sanctions becomes evident. If Western sanctions had been enforced decisively, the Russian economy might not have endured three years of war at such intensity. Oil revenue remains the backbone of Russia’s budget, sustaining its military aggression.
In 2024, Russia’s military budget was approximately $112 billion and is projected to rise to $142 billion in 2025. Despite sanctions, millions of tons of Russian oil are still entering the EU.
The Financial Times revealed that during the first year of the war, the EU paid Russia €140 billion for oil and gas—€80 billion of which was for oil—exceeding the aid provided to Ukraine over two years.
For more details, watch Ukrainska Pravda’s investigation (English subs available): Watch on YouTube with subs. ()

▫️74 Medics Killed in Over 36 Russian Double-Tap Strikes Since the Start of the Invasion
united24media.com/latest-news/74-medics-killed-in-over-36-russian-double-tap-strikes-since-the-start-of-the-invasion-4067

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine rejects calls to lower conscription age to 18 – ‘lacks weapons to equip already mobilized soldiers.’
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42963

The Netherlands handed over 3 launchers for the Patriot air defense system, — Dutch Minister of Defense Ruben Brekelmans

In Ukraine's Rivne region, more than 280,000 people are now without electricity and water after this morning's the Russian missile attack on public infrastructure.

In this morning's sub zero temperatures, Russians launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leaving millions without heat, water and electricity.

Rescuers are working in dozens of locations and damages are still being determined.
▪️Kyiv: Debris has fallen on open areas within the city.
.▪️Volyn: Several strikes in Lutsk. Parts of the city are without power, and public transport has been halted.
▪️Sumy region: Several infrastructure facilities in Shostka were destroyed. Damage reported to a school, hospital, residential buildings, and water supply facilities.
▪️Kharkiv region: Strikes on a civilian enterprise in Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv. No casualties reported so far.
▪️Rivne region: Smoke observed over Rivne following a series of explosions. Over 280,000 subscribers in the region are without electricity, with water supply disruptions reported.
▪️Vinnytsia region: Residential buildings damaged, a utility structure destroyed, and a car set ablaze.
▪️Air defenses active: Air defense systems were operational in many regions, with most missiles targeting western areas.

More innovation from Ukrainian Armed Forces as Lemonde reports that Ukraine now has the ability to hijack Russian drone navigation systems, causing enemy UAVs to deviate from their intended paths or crash, often sending them back to Russia or into Belarus.
Recent downed drone statistics have confirmed.

Russia's takeover of the Georgian government continues.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42923

Cyprus Revokes Citizenship of 86 Individuals, 77 of which are Russians, many among Putin's circle. Cyprus' move underscores its intensified scrutiny of its controversial "golden passport" scheme.

At an international freediving competition in the Caribbean Island of Dominica, Kateryna Sadurska the sole representative from Ukraine set a new absolute world record in the discipline of diving without fins at 82 meters.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russian occupation forces are concentrating troops near the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv oblast to strengthen their defense and prevent the Ukrainian Armed Forces from advancing, according to Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Vladyslav Voloshyn

Russia launched Kalibr missiles equipped with cluster munitions against civilian infrastructure in several Ukrainian regions, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported.

During the night, air defense forces destroyed 176 out of 188 aerial targets
As a result of strikes on infrastructure, power outages have been introduced in many regions. Dozens of settlements have been left without electricity and water supply.
Details:
⚠️ — 97/97 attack and decoy UAVs (jammed or shot down).
❗️ — 76/85 Kh-101/55 and Kalibr cruise missiles.
❗️ — 3/3 Kh-59/69 guided aviation missiles.
❗️ — 0/3 S-300 surface-to-air missiles.

🇫🇮🇺🇦 Finland to Establish a Drone Production Facility in Partnership with Ukraine
Finnish company Summa Defense Ltd will produce drones used in the war in Ukraine. Mass production is set to begin in the first half of 2025.
The joint venture involves Ukrainian drone manufacturers Kort, Elf Systems, Skyassist, and MPS Development. The facility will produce not only aerial drones but also ground and naval ones.

I see Putin is now huffing and puffing that he’ll use ‘all means of destruction’ if the US gives Ukraine nuclear weapons. I think it’s funny how quickly he’s moved onto his next red line given the authorisation on long range strikes was meant to be his red red red line (turns out it was a bit pinkish after all, like all of the others).

Personally though I can’t see the US giving Ukraine nuclear weapons under any foreseeable circumstances.

Putin’s reaction to this has also had a possibly unintended side effect - it shows how much he doesn’t want this to go nuclear, despite all his own threats.

Don’t get me wrong, it’s very clear he’s punishing and will continue to punish the Ukrainian people for what he considers to be Western impertinence. It’s going to be a fucking horrid winter for them and I don’t think that should be down played.

On another note I’m no Boris fan but his interview on Ukraine the Latest today was excellent. Well worth listening to.

@Igotjelly what does Boris say?

He just talks about what it was like to be Prime Minister when the war started. He talks about the fact that storm shadow authorisation should have been given ages ago and that there is a need for UK troops to support Ukraine (not in a combat role but to support).

He speaks about his ongoing engagement with Zelensky and Trump and why he believes that the US won’t abandon Ukraine.

He also says he believes that Putin’s nuclear threats are ‘codswallop’ and shouldn’t frighten us into inaction.

In 2024, Russia’s military budget was approximately $112 billion and is projected to rise to $142 billion in 2025. Despite sanctions, millions of tons of Russian oil are still entering the EU.

This is what Putin counted on. He had the one commodity that Europe needs and counted on it as leverage. Oil rich countries have so much power.

New record personnel loss

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN
#UKRAINE

• NOV 29, 2024

■ Record casualties: first 2k+ day ■ Record month of missile strikes; 3rd largest daily attack (77% intercepted) ■ Artillery, APV, drone & vehicle losses well above 7-day avg ■ Increased strikes on both sides, improved ratio

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia 'unlikely' to launch (kyivindependent.com/russia-unlikely-to-launch-nuclear-attack-despite-putins-threats-us-intelligence-says/) nuclear attack despite Putin's threats, US intelligence assessments over the past seven months have shown.

Ukraine war latest: Russia's large-scale attack strikes a 'massive blow' (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-45/)at Ukraine's energy system

⚡️ Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-defense-minister-arrives-in-north-korea-for-state-visit/) arrives in North Korea for official visit.

Can Russia sustain its war effort as ruble plummets, inflation soars? (https://kyivindependent.com/will-russias-economic-problems-make-its-war-unsustainable/)
Russia's expanding spending on the war has fueled inflation, prompting Russia's Central Bank to hike its interest rate to the highest level since the early 2000s — 21 percent — to rein in consumer prices.

⚡️Ukrainian nuclear plants reduce (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-nuclear-plants-reduce-production-in-response-to-russian-attack/) output in response to large-scale Russian attack.
Nuclear power plants in Ukraine reduced electricity production on Nov. 28 as a precautionary measure in response to a Russian mass aerial attack on Ukraine, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Mariano Grossi said.

⚡️Ukraine withdraws (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-withdraws-over-20-000-mortar-shells-due-to-malfunction/) over 20,000 mortar shells due to malfunction.
Out of 54,000 120 mm mortar shells suspected of having defects, about 24,000 are to be withdrawn, Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin said on Nov. 28.
He said that it would constitute less than 1% of the defense production in 2024. The mines were domestically produced, according to the people familiar with the matter.

⚡️Ukraine destroys (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-says-it-destroyed-russian-5-million-radar-system/) Russian $5 million radar system in Crimea, military intelligence claims.
Podlet is a modern mobile radar system designed to detect air targets at low and extremely low altitudes. The system has an estimated price tag of around $5 million.

⚡️Zelensky signs law (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-signs-law-2/) on 'historic' tax increase.
The bill, which was passed by the Ukrainian parliament on Oct. 10, will raise taxes by Hr 8 billion ($192 million) in 2024 and Hr 141 billion ($3.4 billion) in 2025, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak said, as the country struggles to shore up its budget deficit amid Russia's ongoing full-scale war.

⚡️Oil depot burning (kyivindependent.com/local-media-reports-oil-depot-burning-in-rostov-oblast-following-ukrainian-strike/) in Russia's Rostov Oblast amid drone attack, local media reports.

⚡️Ukraine hits (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-hits-oil-depot-in-rostov-oblast-destroys-buk-radar-station-in-russian-occupied-territory/) oil depot in Rostov Oblast, destroys Buk radar station in Russian-occupied territory, Kyiv claims.

⚡️Police disperse (https://kyivindependent.com/police-disperse-protesters-in-tbilisi-after-pro-russian-government-refuses-to-negotiate-eu-accession/) protesters in Tbilisi after pro-Russian government refuses to negotiate EU accession.

⚡️Russian lawyer sentenced to 7 years in prison for publicly speaking out (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-lawyer-sentenced-to-7-years-in-prison-for-publicly-speaking-out-against-ukraine-war/) against Ukraine war, media reports.

Ukraine’s fight against Russian invasion undermined by draft-dodging graft (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-fight-against-russian-invasion-hurt-by-draft-dodging-graft/)
Heavy fighting on the front lines of Russia’s full-scale invasion, dragging out for almost three years, has left thousands of Ukrainian soldiers seriously injured or killed in action.
Many still fighting for years along more than 600 miles of the front line in Ukraine’s east and south are exhausted as they face what Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, describes as “one of the most powerful Russian offensives.”

⚡️Russian troops operated torture chamber (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-operated-torture-chamber-for-ukrainians-in-belarus-in-2022-media-reports/) for Ukrainians in Belarus in 2022, media reports. The chamber was located on Belarusian government-owned property in the town of Naroulia, not far from the border with Ukraine, according to BIC.

⚡️Boris Johnson calls for British, European peacekeepers (kyivindependent.com/boris-johnson-calls-for-british-peacekeepers-in-ukraine/) in Ukraine as part of potential peace deal.

⚡️Russia's drone attack damages children's medical center (kyivindependent.com/russias-drone-attack-damages-childrens-medical-center-in-kyiv-injuries-reported/) in Kyiv, injuries reported.
⚡️Russian soldiers suspected of executing (kyivindependent.com/russian-soldiers-suspected-of-executing-4-more-ukrainian-pows-near-pokrovsk/) 4 more Ukrainian POWs near Pokrovsk.

⚡️Russian attacks across Ukraine kill (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-1-injure-22-over-past-day/) 1, injure 22 over past day.

⚡️Media identifies (kyivindependent.com/media-identify-nearly-81-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/) nearly 81,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The Russian economy has reached a critical turning point, according to Deutsche Welle.
Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Science and Politics Foundation (SWP), stated that Russia’s military-driven economic growth is nearing its limits. He highlighted that new sanctions, coupled with falling oil prices, are likely to worsen the situation, potentially leading to a recession.
Despite the Russian government increasing military spending by 25% in its 2025 budget, industrial production has begun to decline for the first time in two years. Kluge noted a shortage of skilled labor and predicted that Russian enterprises will struggle to maintain current levels of weapons production next year. He also warned that the economy will become increasingly susceptible to new sanctions.

EU and Ukraine sign memorandum for €18.1 billion in macro-financial assistance. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal noted that this sum is part of the G7’s $50 billion aid package.

🇰🇷🤝🇺🇦 Ukraine receives $100 million from South Korea, says Shmyhal

🇵🇱 Norway agreed with Poland to share responsibility for protecting the main transit hub for foreign military aid to Ukraine

Zelenskyy believes Putin is escalating the situation to prevent Trump from ending the war.
According to the Ukrainian leader, Putin is “waving his ‘Oreshnik’” to obstruct Trump’s potential efforts, which Zelenskyy believes “will definitely begin after the inauguration.”

Ukrainian armored personnel carrier “Oncilla-Shturm” approved for operation — Ministry of Defense
The “Oncilla” APC will be produced in several modifications. Its key characteristics include:
• Crew: 3 personnel plus 6 gunners
• Range: Over 700 km
• Features: Equipped with a powerful turbodiesel engine, automatic transmission, automatic tire inflation, fire extinguishing system, and air conditioning
• Armor: Capable of withstanding small arms fire, shrapnel, and explosions
• Armament: Fitted with a remotely controlled combat module featuring a large-caliber machine gun

What are the capabilities of Western missiles in the Russian war against Ukraine? — DW
The U.S., U.K., and France have allowed Ukraine to target military objectives on Russian soil using their long-range weapons. While Germany has so far refused to supply its TAURUS cruise missiles, experts suggest this stance could shift following February’s early elections. What strategic advantages do these weapons provide for Ukraine?

▫️ ATACMS
• Manufacturer: Lockheed Martin (USA)
• Type: Short-range ballistic missile system
• Specifications: 4 meters long, 610 mm in diameter, weighing over 1.5 tons; carries individual warheads or cluster munitions.
• Range: Up to 300 km (depending on variant).
• Combat Use: Employed by the U.S. in Iraq and Afghanistan.

▫️ Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG
• Manufacturer: MBDA (European consortium).
• Type: Air-launched cruise missile.
• Specifications: Operates at low altitudes with GPS and terrain mapping, making it difficult to detect via radar.
• Range: Up to 400 km.
• Cost: €1.1 million per missile.
• Combat Use: Utilized in Iraq (2003), Libya (2011), and against ISIS.

▫️ TAURUS
• Manufacturer: Joint German-Swedish design.
• Type: Long-range air-launched cruise missile.
• Specifications: Flies extremely low, uses a combined guidance system that operates without GPS. Capable of penetrating reinforced concrete structures.
• Range: Up to 500 km.
• Cost: Approximately €1 million per missile.
• Potential Targets: Highly protected bunkers or command posts.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Rebels continue advancing in Syria, aiming to oust the Russian-backed Assad government. https://t.me/Kyivpost_official/26888
Scene from Western Alleppo province today.

The Russian-backed government of Georgia has canceled EU membership talks.
“Today, we have decided not to put the issue of opening negotiations with the European Union on the agenda until the end of 2028. Additionally, we are refusing any EU budget grants until the end of 2028,” Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said.

Russia's economic meltdown continues, with the Rouble heading to new lows.
www.kyivpost.com/opinion/42977

Overmight, Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed 88 out of 132 Russian drones overnight.
Another 41 drones were lost from radar, likely due to electronic warfare. One returned to Russia.

502 bodies of fallen Ukrainian defenders returned to Ukraine
According to the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War, among those returned:
▪️397 from the Donetsk direction;
▪️24 from the Luhansk direction;
▪️64 from the Zaporizhzhia direction;
▪️17 from morgues in the Russian Federation.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlight

🇳🇴 Norway will allocate over $3 billion in aid to Ukraine in 2025
Specifically, $2 billion will be directed toward military assistance, with the remaining funds allocated for humanitarian and civilian support. Overall, Norway has extended its assistance to Ukraine until 2030.

There isn't much on the official news channels but the Syrian rebels have advanced to within 5km of Aleppo in a surprise attack. It seems that Russian military support for Assad has lessened, probably due to everything being poured into Ukraine.

Whether the rebels will be able to hold the ground is uncertain.

There is also a lot of noise being made about how Russia's economy is struggling now.

Breaking news

Forgot to add

Good.

I'd second that except I don't suppose the lying bastards responsible for this horrible bit of world history will suffer in the least no matter what the economy does; it's old women in Abdulino and Zuyevka, poor children in Omsk, and other ordinary people all over the benighted country, who will suffer while their rulers go on rattling the sabres they hand to other people to carry.

Putin (and Trump) won’t let it happen, of that I’m virtually certain.

The Tbilisi protests are giving me Maidan vibes 🇬🇪

No ISW update today

Good on Norway 🇳🇴

Time for UK and Europe to step up.