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Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

1000 replies

MagicFox · 15/08/2024 20:29

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
Thread gallery
289
Igotjelly · 18/09/2024 18:39

MagicFox · 18/09/2024 18:23

@velinatchakarova

Putin had ordered the regular size of the Russian army to be increased by 180,000 troops to 1.5 million active servicemen which would make it the second largest in the world after China's. The overall size of the armed forces to be increased to 2.38 million people.

They can have all the numbers in the world but that doesn’t equal quality…

MagicFox · 18/09/2024 18:45

Or precision

OP posts:
TheABC · 18/09/2024 18:50

They had a big army to start with, before sending half a million men across the border to be shot.

The only thing this will do is accelerate their demographic crisis.

Igotjelly · 18/09/2024 18:58

Apparently 1m people have now died as a result of the war. How fucking horrific, and entirely unnecessary.

MissConductUS · 18/09/2024 19:21

heldinadream · 18/09/2024 18:05

Good. I cannot ever remember a time I felt so inclined to celebrate acts of war as I am every time Ukraine prevails.

What's funny about this is the ritual statement by the local governor that the situation is "under control" (because the entire facility is now a 50 foot deep crater) and that it was caused by "falling debris" from the drones, which were all shot down. Even though the facility was supposedly hardened against air strikes. The funding for that must have wound up in a military super yacht.

MissConductUS · 18/09/2024 19:26

Igotjelly · 18/09/2024 18:39

They can have all the numbers in the world but that doesn’t equal quality…

Putin orders many things that he knows will never happen. In a military context, this is called maskirovka.

It is also important to remember that of any number he can add, only 20-25% will wind up at the front with a rifle. And maybe, if they're lucky, a radio.

Igotjelly · 18/09/2024 19:28

MissConductUS · 18/09/2024 19:26

Putin orders many things that he knows will never happen. In a military context, this is called maskirovka.

It is also important to remember that of any number he can add, only 20-25% will wind up at the front with a rifle. And maybe, if they're lucky, a radio.

and if we’re lucky those radios will be from the same supplier as the Hezbollah ones……

blueshoes · 18/09/2024 20:08

Igotjelly · 18/09/2024 19:28

and if we’re lucky those radios will be from the same supplier as the Hezbollah ones……

I read that the Hezbollah pagers were from Taiwan 😁

MissConductUS · 18/09/2024 20:35

blueshoes · 18/09/2024 20:08

I read that the Hezbollah pagers were from Taiwan 😁

Correct, but the most likely scenario is that the Mossad intercepted the shipment after it left the manufacturer, modified it, and then shipped it to whoever ordered it. The CIA has done the same thing with file servers and other computers to add hardware that allows them to access the computers remotely.

blueshoes · 18/09/2024 21:13

MissConductUS · 18/09/2024 20:35

Correct, but the most likely scenario is that the Mossad intercepted the shipment after it left the manufacturer, modified it, and then shipped it to whoever ordered it. The CIA has done the same thing with file servers and other computers to add hardware that allows them to access the computers remotely.

You must be right.

The intelligence-gathering, tech prowess, network and organisational skills for Mossad to do that at speed under cover without alerting Hezbollah or anyone linked to them is mind boggling.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/09/2024 23:25

It's extraordinary!

About the recent ammunition dump that went up in Russia, it seems to be gigantic. Unconfirmed reports that "several villages" have been burned down, many people are missing and others are waiting to be evacuated by boat across the lake as it's the only route.

The clips are almost like clips of volcanoes in terms of grey clouds being generated.

PerkingFaintly · 19/09/2024 00:16

Igotjelly · 18/09/2024 18:58

Apparently 1m people have now died as a result of the war. How fucking horrific, and entirely unnecessary.

Yes this.

MissConductUS · 19/09/2024 00:25

blueshoes · 18/09/2024 21:13

You must be right.

The intelligence-gathering, tech prowess, network and organisational skills for Mossad to do that at speed under cover without alerting Hezbollah or anyone linked to them is mind boggling.

They might have faked a customs or shipping delay. Or, if they knew what model pager was going to be ordered, they might have obtained a few thousand of them ahead of the order being placed to have more time to modify them. I suspect we'll never know.

The military effect shouldn't be underestimated. Hezbollah got rid of their cell phones because they were convinced that the Mossad had hacked them. Now their pagers and radios are gone. This would be a good time for Israel to attack. They'd have no way to coordinate a quick response. And Hezbollah will be like a dog chasing its tail, trying to determine if Israel has informers in its ranks that facilitated all of this. No one will trust anyone.

PerkingFaintly · 19/09/2024 00:28

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/09/2024 23:25

It's extraordinary!

About the recent ammunition dump that went up in Russia, it seems to be gigantic. Unconfirmed reports that "several villages" have been burned down, many people are missing and others are waiting to be evacuated by boat across the lake as it's the only route.

The clips are almost like clips of volcanoes in terms of grey clouds being generated.

Not just an ammunition dump but a fuel store.

Official Russian reports are currently giving a grand total of 13 people injured.

Yeah, no, don't belive you. It will be a large number. Shame for civilians – though I remind myself that ammunition was intended to be dropped on Ukrainian civilians...

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c30lp1qq6pzo

PerkingFaintly · 19/09/2024 00:35

The Taiwanese owner of the pagers' trademark says he licensed it to a company in Hungary. So the actual pagers might have been made there – or indeed subcontracted elsewhere.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9qvl3vlvlvo

notimagain · 19/09/2024 07:49

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 18/09/2024 23:25

It's extraordinary!

About the recent ammunition dump that went up in Russia, it seems to be gigantic. Unconfirmed reports that "several villages" have been burned down, many people are missing and others are waiting to be evacuated by boat across the lake as it's the only route.

The clips are almost like clips of volcanoes in terms of grey clouds being generated.

By way of comparison in 2001 several hundred tonnes of Ammonium Nitrate exploded at a factory on the edge of Toulouse in France…similar situation to the explosion in Beirut a few years back. the Toulouse case didn’t get much coverage at the time since it was just post 9/11 but some of the video is quite shocking.

In the French case 31 people were killed, hundreds/thousands were injured and a whole chunk of the southern edge of the city was seriously damaged by the blast…they’ve only just finished putting parts of the area back together and there’s still visible damage in some buildings.

Heaven knows what sort of damage an ordnance dump paved with several hundred tonnes of genuine HE would cause to any adjacent population centers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toulouse_chemical_factory_explosion

Toulouse chemical factory explosion - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toulouse_chemical_factory_explosion

PerkingFaintly · 19/09/2024 12:07

The pager and walkie-talkie story is beginning to look like there was very deep preparation, rather than just intercepting a specific order in transit.

Also the size of the explosions (from smoke and number injured) is making me concerned they involve actual explosives, rather than causing a normal device to overhead.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwyl9048gx8t

I say this with caution, and at the risk of fearmongering, but I am a bit concerned that the method might have been to put explosive-ridden devices cheaply onto the open market for Hezbollah to freely buy, rather than to tamper with only the devices ordered by Hezbollah. That method would make the tamperer disappear at an earlier stage in the chain. But it would also mean there could now be a substantial number of devices out there with explosives in, bought on the open market by people entirely unconnected with Hezbollah, which simply haven't been triggered because they haven't received a message from the triggering number. Of course I don't know how they were triggered, so that might be rubbish – and in fact I hope that the whole idea is rubbish and that hasn't happened. But I'm a tad concerned.

Lebanon latest: Country reels from pager and walkie-talkie attacks as Hezbollah's Nasrallah expected to speak

In attacks widely blamed on Israel, hundreds of walkie-talkies exploded in Lebanon on Wednesday, a day after thousands of pagers did the same.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cwyl9048gx8t

PerkingFaintly · 19/09/2024 12:08

Sorry, that's a bit off-topic for this thread. Although I suppose all these methods of attack are things we have to be aware of. Once one country has done it, so may others.

notimagain · 19/09/2024 12:12

Hate to be controversial say it but I’d be a bit wary of anything the BBC put out on this particular topic…I think it’s almost inevitable one of their reporters would start spinning the β€œirresponsible” Israel line.

All the credible analysis I’ve seen points to supply chain interdiction aimed at targeting devices going to Hezbollah operatives.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/09/2024 12:18

I don't see the problem with a few digressions as long as it doesn't go too far. It's interesting!

There was the Lebanon ammonium nitrate explosion too https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Beirut_explosion Hundreds dead and the city half-devastated.

Very alarmingly there is a Russian ship filled with ammonium nitrate floating right outside Norway's Bergen, home to important naval base Haakonsvern and a large part of Norway's oil/marine/fishing industry. The ship claims it has no power.

2020 Beirut explosion - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Beirut_explosion

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/09/2024 12:27

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️ Ukraine's victory plan fully ready Zelensky says. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-victory-plan-ready/

⚑️ Russia's counterattack in Kursk Oblast aiming to retake Ukrainian-held territory has been stopped, a spokesperson of the Ukrainian military administration in the region told AFP on Sept. 18. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-kursk-oblast-counteroffensive-halted-kyiv-claims/

https://kyivindependent.com/russia-said-this-weapons-depot-was-nuclear-bomb-proof-ukraine-just-blew-it-up-with-drones/

⚑️ Ukraine's French Mirage jets https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-french-mirage-jets-will-be-able-to-hit-ground-targets-media-reports/ will be able to hit ground targets, media reports.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced on June 6 that an unspecified number would be transferred to Ukraine, but did not provide a timeline.

β€˜They attack with quantity:’ With Ukrainian soldiers desperately defending Pokrovsk https://kyivindependent.com/russias-pokrovsk-offensive-slows-but-relief-looks-temporary-for-ukraine/

Systemic problems and shortages among the defending Ukrainian force and a never-ending flow of assaulting Russian units make for a difficult autumn campaign for Kyiv in Donetsk Oblast.

⚑️ Romania urges https://kyivindependent.com/romania-urges-robust-nato-response/ 'robust' NATO response to airspace violations by Russia.
Romania called on Sept. 18 for a "robust and coordinated" response by NATO to Russian drones violating allied airspace during attacks against Ukraine.

⚑️Russia, Pakistan strengthen economic ties https://kyivindependent.com/russia-pakistan-strengthen-economic-ties-expand-trade/ expand trade. Moscow also pledged support for Pakistan's bid to join the BRICS international alliance.

⚑️ Finnish president wants Russia excluded from UN Security Council. https://kyivindependent.com/stubb-russia-un-security-council/ According to Stubb, any council member engaged in an illegal war "such as Russia is in right now in Ukraine" should be suspended.

Yerevan on Sept. 18 accused five Armenian citizens and two former residents of Nagorno-Karabakh of undergoing military training in Russia in order to stage an armed coup in Armenia. https://kyivindependent.com/armenia-coup/

⚑️Indian shells flowing https://kyivindependent.com/indian-shells-russia-ukraine-reuters/ to Ukraine, despite protests from Russia, Reuters reports.
Artillery ammunition manufactured in India is being diverted to Ukraine "despite protests from Moscow," Reuters reported on Sept. 19, citing customs data and nearly a dozen Indian and European government and defense industry officials.

⚑️Blackouts caused by Russian attacks driving Ukrainians abroad, UN monitor says.
Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure caused a sharp rise in Ukrainians citing blackouts as a reason for leaving the country over the summer, the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) said in a report published on Sept. 19. https://kyivindependent.com/blackouts-ukrainians-hrmmu-report/

⚑️ IEA recommends 10 steps https://kyivindependent.com/iea-recommends-10-steps-for-ukraine/ for Ukraine's energy security ahead of winter.
The measures recommended by the IEA include "bolstering the physical and cyber security of critical energy infrastructure, expediting the delivery of equipment and spare parts for repairs, (and) accelerating the decentralization of power supply," according to a press release sent to the Kyiv Independent.

A fight broke out at the head office of Wildberries, Russia's largest online retailer [equivalent of Amazon] killing one person and injuring at least two others, Russian state-controlled news agency TASS reported on Sept. 18. https://kyivindependent.com/shooting-wildberries-office/

⚑️ WSJ estimates of Ukraine's casualties 'exaggerated,' lawmaker believes https://kyivindependent.com/wsj-ukraine-kostenko/
The Wall Street Journal's recent claims that 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died during the full-scale war with Russia are "exaggerated," secretary of the parliamentary defense committee Roman Kostenko told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on Sept. 18.

⚑️Ukrainian parliament renames https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-parliament-votes-to-rename-over-300-settlements/ over 300 settlements relating to Russia, Soviet Union.

⚑️Russian troll farm behind fake story https://kyivindependent.com/russian-bot-farm-behind-fake-story-about-supposed-harris-hit-and-run-incident-microsoft-says/ about supposed Harris hit and run incident, Microsoft says.
A Russian troll farm known as Storm-1516 was behind the creation and dissemination of a fake news story that alleged that U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris was responsible for a hit-and-run in 2011 that paralyzed a girl, Microsoft said in a report published on Sept. 17.

⚑️Russian attacks kill https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-sept-19/ 5, injure 31 over past day.
⚑️ 1 dead, 4 injured https://kyivindependent.com/1-dead-4-injured-after-russian-attacks/ after Russian attacks in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦β€¬ β€ͺ SEP 19, 2024
β–  Engagements stay at a high level & casualties close to 7-day average
β–  Double-digit tank losses & >60 UAVs brought down
β–  Unfavorable strike ratio but πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes include at least one unspecified target of importance

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/09/2024 12:33

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Lithuania Pledges Additional €40-50 Million Aid to Ukraine by 2024
Lithuanian Defense Minister Laurinas Kaschyunas announced plans to provide Ukraine with an additional €40-50 million in aid by the end of 2024. As part of this support, Lithuania will invest €10 million in the production of the Palyanytsia unmanned missile complex within Ukraine.
The aid package will also include radars, demining equipment, and short-range air defense systems. "We are exploring the market for short-range air defense systems that can be purchased and transferred without depleting our own resources," Kaschyunas stated.

Switzerland has pledged over $68 million to Ukraine for the development of digitalization efforts through 2028, according to Ukraine's Minister of Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov. The funds will support the digitization of key sectors, including healthcare, education, and the modernization of the State Statistics Service. A portion of the funding will also be directed toward humanitarian demining efforts.

Germany Allocates Additional €50 Million for Treatment of Wounded Ukrainian Soldiers

Russia's budget is falling short by nearly $3.6 billion due to a sharp decline in oil prices, with an additional $6 billion in taxes unlikely to be collected, according to a report from the Gaidar Institute. The price of Russia's Urals crude has dropped below $60 per barrel, well under the $70 per barrel forecast used in the 2024 budget.
As of mid-September, Urals prices in the Baltic and Black Sea ports were at $61-62 per barrel, significantly lower than the recent $75 mark. Key economic sectors like metallurgy and coal, hit by sanctions and losing market access, are contributing to the revenue shortfall.
Economists warn that the increased government spending plan of 38 trillion rubles ($29 billion) could push the budget deficit to 4.3 trillion rublesβ€”2.6 times higher than the projected deficit.

The European Union is considering intensifying sanctions on financial institutions that facilitate the flow of military products to Russia, as well as the supply of goods from Western subsidiaries in Southeast Asia, according to a Reuters report.
David O'Sullivan, the EU's representative on sanctions, emphasized that while the sanctions imposed since 2022 are not a "magic bullet," their goal is to slow down and increase the cost of Russia's military operations. He also pointed out that some companies are attempting to bypass these sanctions by supplying dual-use goods to Moscow.
O'Sullivan noted progress in reducing such supplies through Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Armenia, following diplomatic efforts. However, stopping the flow through Southeast Asia, where goods are produced rather than simply transited, remains a significant challenge. Many products passing through China originate from Western subsidiaries in Southeast Asia, complicating enforcement.
The EU is focusing on financial institutions that fund the transshipment of military products to Russia. "If such institutions are discovered, they will be given a choice: either cease their activities or face sanctions," O'Sullivan warned, highlighting the success the U.S. has already achieved in this area.
O'Sullivan also acknowledged the difficulty of harmonizing sanctions implementation across the EU's 27 member states. He stressed that sanctions are already pushing Russia into a war economy, with severe economic consequences expected in the coming years.

Ukrainian Forces Repel Russian Assault in Kharkiv Region

Russia Produces Up to 56 Ballistic Missiles and Over 500 Drones Monthly, Targeting Ukrainian Infrastructure
According to Forbes Ukraine, citing a source within intelligence structures, Russia produces between 42 to 56 ballistic missiles and 90 to 115 long-range cruise missiles each month. These missiles are capable of being used for deep strikes on Ukrainian territory, with a particular focus on energy infrastructure. Additionally, the production rate of Shahed-136 drones exceeds 500 units per month, further contributing to the potential threat against Ukraine.

The European Commission has initiated a special procedure to deduct a €200 million fine from Hungary’s share of the EU budget after the country failed to pay the penalty imposed by the European Court of Justice for long-term violations of asylum rights. Hungary missed two deadlines, the first at the end of August and the second on September 17.
Hungary is also facing a €1 million daily fine for continuing to defy the European Court’s ruling, which deemed the country’s asylum restrictions "an unprecedented and extremely serious violation of EU law."
In response to these sanctions, Hungary’s government, led by Viktor OrbΓ‘n, has threatened to "voluntarily" transport migrants to Belgium and has expanded programs allowing Russian and Belarusian citizens to enter Hungary despite EU restrictions.

Ukraine and Norway Launch Joint Nuclear Safety Projects
Ukraine and Norway have begun implementing two joint projects focused on nuclear safety. These comprehensive projects aim to analyze industrial enterprises that produce non-nuclear natural radioactive materials and assess the current shortcomings in this area within Ukraine. The goal is to develop four regulatory and legal documents to improve safety standards and regulations in the country.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum Declines Zelenskyy’s Invitation to Visit Kyiv

Russia Circulates Fake Videos Targeting Kamala Harris' Presidential Campaign
One fake video falsely showed Harris supporters attacking backers of Republican candidate Donald Trump, while another depicted an actor impersonating Harris during a staged car accident. Both videos garnered millions of views, with one shared by a fake news outlet in San Francisco to appear more credible.

Switzerland will hold the UMAC2024 conference on mine action in Ukraine on October 17 and 18 in Lausanne, in collaboration with the Ukrainian government. The event aims to highlight the critical role of humanitarian demining in Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, according to Swissinfo.

Kremlin Denies Knowledge of Petition for "Green Corridor" in Kursk Region
The Kremlin claims it has not received a petition requesting a "green corridor" for the evacuation of residents from Russia's Kursk region, according to President Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov.

Satellite images of the aftermath of a massive drone strike on a Russian military depot in Toropets, Tver region, are published in the media

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/09/2024 12:36

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The Russian MoD is pressuring Putin to announce a new wave of mobilization to bring in additional troops and compensate for the Kremlin's losses on the battlefield in Ukraine, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing a source in Moscow https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/putin-troops-pressure-russia-ukraine-war-5f242a1c?mod=hp_lead_pos9&fbclid=IwY2xjawFYtO1leHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHXcyoaAtWbgNasUUApbOg3eDKR0SmM8AaAbLmygOpNZ1Bj3K7_gUI2GdeQ_aem_1-jLCCaJAQTimENIunkZiw

The publication notes that the Kremlin fears that another mobilization could disrupt the balance of public perception of the war within Russian society, creating political risks for Putin.

During year of operation of the export sea corridor, Ukraine has already transported 70 million tons of cargo β€” countries from Egypt to Indonesia, from Tunisia and Libya to India, from Algeria to China have received Ukrainian grain. It was delivered by over 2,500 ships

The film "Russians at War" is planned https://x.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1836461621910143047 to be screened at a film festival in Switzerland.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine is calling for the cancellation of the screening, arguing that it provides Russia with platforms to whitewash war crimes.
β–ͺ️The film "Russians at War" was directed by former Russia Today documentarian Anastasia Trofimova. The film promotes the idea that the war between Ukraine and Russia is a "conflict between two brotherly nations" and that Russians are allegedly as much victims of it as Ukrainians.
β–ͺ️Despite Ukraine's calls, the film has already been shown at the Venice Film Festival and the Toronto International Film Festival.

The website of the Toropets district administration, where an ammunition depot exploded today😊

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/09/2024 12:38

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

⚑️During his visit to the U.S., Zelensky plans to meet with Biden and Harris
In addition, US presidential candidate Trump said he would likely meet with the Ukrainian president next week, although he gave no details.

On November 1st, Russia to introduce an electronic control grid to funnel men into military conscription
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39198

Yet more innovation at the front as Ukrainian Forces are adapting Javelin warheads to FPV drones
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39197

Behind the scenes with Ukraine's best drone forces, one pilot alone responsible for taking out 200 Russians
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39127

Russia is already at war with a west that refuses to respond

More info on the India ammunition:
India is supplying ammunition to Ukraine despite Russia’s objections β€” Reuters
Arms trading has been ongoing for over a year.
Officially, New Delhi denies direct arms deliveries to Ukraine but does not intervene to stop the process.
'India continues to sell artillery shells, which, thanks to European buyers, including Italy and the Czech Republic, end up in Ukraine,' the publication notes.

The European Union will provide Ukraine with €160 million to help Ukraine prepare for another winter amidst ongoing Russian strikes on its energy infrastructure β€” European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen

The FPV Drones Burning the Enemy on the Eastern Front

With enough shells and rockets, Ukraine could change the course of the war.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39127

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 19/09/2024 12:54

I wonder if the massive loss of missiles and ammunition in Toropets will force Putin to consider Russian mobilization sooner.

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