Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

British soldiers have been warned Russia may be using spies and drones to obtain information about Ukrainian service members trained in the U.K., The Times reported on Aug. 5, citing a military handbook circulated among the troops

Um…wonders what security classification this handbook had?

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️ Russians have created and are distributing a fake web application called "Reserve+" to collect the personal data of Ukrainians.
"Reserve+" is a Ukrainian app for people liable for military service where they can update their data.
The fake Russian links mimic the original namehttps://reserveplus.mod.gov.ua but end in .top, .website, .org, etc. The Ministry of Defense said it is already working to ensure data protection.

The F-16s in service with the Ukrainian army are equipped with early warning systems for missile attacks.
The devices will allow the aircraft to detect attacking missiles in advance and fire heat traps. Fighter jets of all European Air Force member states are equipped with such systems.

The SBU exposed a Russian agent network that was preparing missile, bomb, and drone strikes in six regions
The special operation resulted in the simultaneous detention of nine Russian FSB agents in Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, and Sumy, as well as in Donetsk, Odesa, and Kirovohrad regions. The enemy group included two officials.

Soldiers of the 28th Brigade use a robotic dog for reconnaissance near Toretsk.

Ukraine has already won six awards at the Olympic Games in Paris.

The death rate in Ukraine is three times higher than the birth rate in 2024.
In the first six months of 2024, 87,655 children were born in Ukraine, and 250,972 people died.
Currently, the highest number of newborns is in Kyiv (9,695), Lviv region (7,923), and Dnipro region (6,962).
The lowest number of babies are born in the partially occupied regions - Kherson (221 babies in six months) and Donetsk (702). In Luhansk region, no newborns were recorded in six months.

@MissConductUS what do you make of Tim Walz as a VP pick then?

Whatever is going on in the Russian MoD, Shoigu's departure left all his allies unprotected. A lot of them are being given the Order of the Boot, and a fair few the Order of the Locked Cell too. The latest (of quite a few already) are the head of the MoD Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the MoD's Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Director of Russia's 'Patriot Park' arrested on corruption charges. https://kyivindependent.com/director-of-russias-patriot-park-arrested-on-fraud-charges/

⚡️Iran asks Russia for air defenses to prepare for potential war with Israel, NYT reports, with deliveries already underway. https://kyivindependent.com/iran-russia-israel-nyt/ [Eh?]

⚡️Russia claims Ukraine attempted to break into Kursk region, Kyiv hasn't commented. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-kursk/ Russian pro-war Telegram channels wrote that a sabotage and reconnaissance group with heavy equipment had allegedly entered Kursk Oblast in the morning.
The Ukrainian military has not commented on these claims, which cannot be independently verified.

⚡️IT software for UK nuclear submarine engineers outsourced to Belarus, the Telegraph reports. kyivindependent.com/telegraph-uk-nuclear-submarine-it-system-belarus/
The news that the development of an IT system used by British nuclear submarine engineers was outsourced to Belarusian developers has led to calls that the U.K. must carry out an urgent review of defense supply chains, the Telegraph reported on Aug. 3.
The Telegraph first reported on Aug. 2 that part of the IT software used by British nuclear submarine engineers had been outsourced to Belarusian developers, one of whom was working from Russia. [facepalm well that's that completely compromised then. Wasn't there something like this early in the war as well, @notimagain? My memory is very poor]

⚡️ Council of EU approves $4.6 billion under Ukraine Facility. https://kyivindependent.com/council-of-eu-approves-4-6-billion/

⚡️Harris chooses https://kyivindependent.com/harris-chooses-minnesota-governor-tim-walz-as-running-mate-media-reports/ Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as running mate, media reports.

Ukraine war latest: Russian Su-34 jet destroyed in Ukraine's strike on Morozovsk airfield, Kyiv says https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-19/

Investigation: Almost 2 years into first reports of wrongdoing, Ukraine’s International Legion appears immune to change https://kyivindependent.com/investigation-almost-2-years-into-first-reports-of-wrongdoing-ukraines-international-legion-appears-immune-to-change/
Instead of suspending or firing commanders subject to soldiers' complaints, the leadership of the Legion either kept them at their posts or transferred them to other units.

⚡️ Ukraine boosting gas production thanks to new wells, technologies. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-increases-gas-production/
Companies of Ukraine's state-owned Naftogaz Group produced 8.6 billion cubic meters (bcm) of commercial gas in the first seven months of 2024, representing a 7% increase compared to the same period last year, the company's press service said on Aug. 6.

⚡️Labor shortages in Poland increasing as influx of Ukrainians slows, data suggests. https://kyivindependent.com/shortages-in-poland-ukrainians/

⚡️Ukraine's missile program to get additional funding, Zelensky says https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-missile-program-to-receive-additional-funding-zelensky-says/

⚡️Explosion reported at military plant in Russia, killing 3. https://kyivindependent.com/explosion-reported-at-military-plant-in-russia-killing-3/

⚡️Mali provided no evidence of Ukraine's ties to Tuareg rebels, foreign ministry says. https://kyivindependent.com/mali-no-evidence-ukraine-involvement-wagner-tuareg/

⚡️Ukraine's project "Khochu naiti" (I want to find) has helped to locate 588 missing Russian soldiers since its launch in January, as reported on the service's Telegram channel on Aug. 5.
Some 533 of the Russian soldiers were found alive among prisoners of war (POW), and 100 of them had already been released to Russia as a part of a prisoner exchange. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-humanitarian-project-locates-588-missing-russian-soldiers/

Kyiv developers bulldoze monuments as Russian missiles destroy Ukraine’s cultural heritage https://kyivindependent.com/as-russia-destroys-ukrainian-cultural-heritage-with-missiles-kyiv-developers-bulldoze-monuments/ On July 19, videos and images surfaced of the historic Zelensky Manor being ripped apart by a bulldozer, shocking locals.

⚡️ Russia's fourth dam bursts in two weeks. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-fourth-dam-bursts-in-two-weeks/

⚡️ Russia strikes medical facility in Kharkiv, people may be trapped under rubble. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-hits-medical-facility-in-kharkiv-people-may-be-trapped-under-rubble/
⚡️ Update: 8 injured https://kyivindependent.com/russia-hits-medical-facility-in-kharkiv-people-may-be-trapped-under-rubble/ in Russian missile attack on Kharkiv. The victims include an 8-month-old child.

⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 3, injure 19 over past day. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-3-injure-19-over-past-day/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 AUG 6, 2024
■ Engagements close to 7-day average, 1k casualties
■ Modest equipment losses, six missiles intercepted
■ Janovsky: 56 🇷🇺 18 🇺🇦; 30-day ratio rises to 3.1x
■ Unfavorable strike ratio; relatively few 🇺🇦 strikes

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

EU Legislators Call for Action Against Hungary Over Visa Policy
A group of legislators in the European Parliament is urging the European Commission to take action against Hungary following Budapest's decision to simplify entry for Russians and Belarusians. Among the proposed measures is the suspension of Hungary's participation in the Schengen area, according to Politico.

French General Calls for Reducing Red Tape to Enhance Military Mobility in Europe
In an interview with Politico, a senior French general emphasized the need to cut "incredible" red tape to move troops and military equipment across Europe more efficiently, in order to deter potential Russian aggression.

EU Approves New Sanctions Package Against Belarus
The European Union has approved a new package of sanctions against Belarus, targeting 28 individuals involved in repression and human rights violations in the country.
With this addition, EU restrictive measures against Belarus now apply to 261 individuals and 37 organizations.

US Stance on F-16s and Strikes into Russia Remains Unchanged
The presence of F-16 fighter jets in Ukraine does not alter the US position regarding strikes deep into Russia, stated Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the US State Department.

The Georgian pro-Russian party "Solidarity for Peace" has proposed to Russia the "restoration of strategic cooperation" by concluding a new "Georgiev Treaty," similar to the 18th-century agreement that placed Tbilisi under Moscow's protectorate, reports Jam News.

Armenia to Skip CSTO Exercises
Armenia has informed the CSTO that it will not participate in the "Interaction-2024" command and staff exercises, scheduled to be held in Kyrgyzstan from September 3 to 15, according to the organization's press service.

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy Considers Visit to China to Reset Relations

New photos of Ukrainian F-16s published by President Zelenskyy

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Ukraine could destroy dozens of Russian Su-34s. However, the United States has banned ATACMS missiles from being fired at Russian territory.
Earlier this summer, Russia deployed "dozens of Su-34 fighter-bombers" to the Malshevo air base near Voronezh, Forbes reports. These planes are the carriers of the guided bombs that Russia has been using to attack Ukraine.
Since the Malshevo base is well protected, Ukraine asked the United States for permission to strike it with ATACMS missiles, as they are difficult to intercept. However, the United States refused because of fears of an escalation of the war. Meanwhile, Russia has moved most of its aircraft away from the border with Ukraine, making them out of range of ATACMS.

Russia has lost at least 87 T-90M tanks. Putin said it was "the best in the world. Russia is trying to create the impression that there are many hundreds of such tanks on the battlefield.
But in reality, there are about 200 of them. These are estimates as of September 2023, but there are no more recent figures in open sources. We can assume that since then they have produced several dozen more T-90Ms.
At least 5 of these tanks are already fighting on the side of Ukraine.

In two and a half years, the Air Force destroyed over 8,000 enemy air targets, including planes, helicopters, cruise missiles, and drones. Ukrainian pilots completed more than 20,000 sorties.

482 settlements are without power supply in full or partially. Some of them have no electricity because of the hostilities.
Due to the hostilities, there are power outages in Donetsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions.

Russian Journalist Andrei Pivovarov, who was exchanged for murderers and spies, believes that it is unacceptable for him to support the Armed Forces of Ukraine since people join the Russian army by force.

Russian telegram channels, citing the Italian publication Database Italia, are spreading fake news about the Zelenskyy family's alleged purchase of the English musician Sting's wine estate.
In 2021, the website that became the primary source of fake news was included in the ranking of web resources that spread disinformation in Italian.
In addition, the news published by Database Italia has been repeatedly refuted by Italian fact-checkers.
The website also spread other fakes about Ukraine, including the "American biolabs."

Russia’s war destroyed 80% of the Ukrainian “Holy Mountains” National Park in Donetsk Oblast, causing around $388 million in damage. Most of the forest territory is burned or mined.

I'm surprised that she didn't want to pick someone more moderate to appeal to swing voters. Walz is pretty far left. She also could be seen as caving to the progressives who didn't want her to pick Josh Shapiro because he's Jewish pro-Israel.

Shapiro would have almost guaranteed her winning Pennsylvania, and she can't win the election without it. So, picking Walz is a bit puzzling, and I think it will hurt her.

By not picking Shapiro, she may be setting herself up to lose Pennsylvania because Shapiro is wildly popular there, and it's quite a snub.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian authorities detained the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) Patriot Park, Vyacheslav Akhmedov, and Deputy Head of the Russian MoD's Directorate for Innovative Development Major General Vladimir Shesterov on suspicion of large-scale fraud as of August 5.
• A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted several command changes within the Russian MoD claimed on August 5 that the Head of the Russian MoD's Main Armored Directorate, Lieutenant General Alexander Shestakov, will leave his position in the near future.
• Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu met with various high-ranking Iranian officials, including Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri, and Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akhbar Ahmadian in Tehran on August 5.
• Russia is tightening pre-departure standards for Tajik migrants hoping to work in Russia, likely as part of ongoing Russian efforts to address security threats from the Islamic State's Afghan branch IS-Khorasan (IS-K) following the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in March 2024.
• Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), citing satellite imagery, reported that Ukrainian drone strikes destroyed an Su-34 bomber aircraft and an ammunition warehouse at the Morozovsk Airfield in Rostov Oblast on August 3.
• Russian forces advanced east of Toretsk and Pokrovsk and near Donetsk City and Robotyne.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to position Russian veterans who have fought in Ukraine in domestic political roles.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

The Telegraph first reported on Aug. 2 that part of the IT software used by British nuclear submarine engineers had been outsourced to Belarusian developers, one of whom was working from Russia. [facepalm well that's that completely compromised then. Wasn't there something like this early in the war as well..

Looks like there is indeed previous…probably a case of outsourcing to reduce costs regardless of the consequences/without performing due diligence..

https://united24media.com/latest-news/russian-and-belarusian-developers-linked-to-british-submarine-software-prompting-mod-investigation-1553

.

facepalm

Great if the Russians can put the sub out of action at a vital moment. And Im quite sure they can, now.

It seems there is cholera in Crimea

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3892257-cholera-recorded-in-three-cities-of-crimea-occupiers-are-trying-to-hide-epidemic.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=bluesky

I wonder if that is or isn't connected to the fresh water problems there.

OFFS...

That's umm, really bad OPSEC.

The only good news is that when at sea, none of those systems is connected to the internet, which somewhat limits the risk. Still, it could mess with the fire control systems, which would not be good in a shooting war.

I saw that Waltz is quite progressive but including on some issues that moderate democrats don’t agree with. Did Harris reject Shapiro because of her personal views on the conflict? Or just worried that she’d lose too many votes on that issue? If it’s the former, it could be a real misstep given how she has to secure Pennsylvania. Though someone said on the radio that it’s not the running mate that people are voting for.

I want ABT but wonder what she’d be like as a President.

If you mean the Gaza conflict, I don't think Harris has strongly held views on it that would lead her to reject Shapiro. It's a purely political calculation to gin up enthusiasm from her left flank. But suppose she had picked Shapiro. How many Democrats would be so upset by that choice that they'd vote for Trump instead? Exactly zero, I'd guess. It makes no sense to me.

If she loses Pennsylvania by 10,000 votes and the election with it, it will be remembered as a political debacle.

I wonder what she'd be like as President too. Biden outsourced policymaking to the far left after running as a centrist, so that would be my guess for her, too.

It seems Ukraine is moving into Kursk and it's causing a lot of Russian alarm.

I've listened to a few podcasts about this and it seems like the choice is mainly down to his viral "they're weird" comment and the popularity / succinctness of that message. Seems like not much to hang your hat on to me but...

Perhaps Walz is the one who is least likely to put off partisan supporters of one of the other candidates.

I'm just listening to a World Service prog on Walz. I must say I think the whole Dem VP pick is landing extremely well. The media seem to be lapping him up like suddenly everyone's favourite uncle has arrived unexpectedly at the party and now everyone is singing and dancing without a care. That's just my impression but the cheery optimism is very infectious. He does seem to have a capacity to straight talk without being aggressive or defensive or offensive. I was a Mark Kelly fan but this guy had won me over.

The media seem to be lapping him up like suddenly everyone's favourite uncle has arrived unexpectedly at the party and now everyone is singing and dancing without a care.

Of course the problem is the media have their own slant and bias, and the World Service certainly aren’t immune.

It’ll be interesting to see how well the favourite (or in this context should it be favorite??) uncle act lands with the only people that count..the voters in the US.

Fingers crossed he’s a good pick but I’ve noted @MissConductUS reservations and am following with interest.

Oh yes totally there's bias everywhere and it's the vote that counts. I'm just taking a little comfort from reading the runes. It's a long way off until the election and I'm mightily interested in the outcome of this one, I think KH would be such a massive symbolic win. Black woman beats Trump. Could there be a better headline?

I so want to see the end of the loathsome MAGAs, and with Trump approaching 80 I think that would be the end of him.
A new era.

What's with Ukraine nipping into Russia. Is this a diversion to draw Russian forces away?

Were the US and EU aware of this plan? I don't think it's great move personally....

It's hard to understand the reasoning behind it unless it's to unsettle Russia.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that Ukrainian soldiers broke into the territory of Russia's Kursk region on Aug. 6.
Russia's Defense Ministry claimed around 5 p.m. local time [06/07/24] that up to 300 soldiers of Ukraine's 22nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, equipped with tanks and armored vehicles, had allegedly attacked Russian units near the border settlements of Nikolaevo-Darino and Oleshnya in the Kursk region. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-kursk/

⚡️Russian helicopter, tanks reportedly destroyed https://kyivindependent.com/russian-helicopter-tanks-reportedly-destroyed/ in fighting across border in Kursk Oblast.

⚡️Putin calls clashes in Russia's Kursk region 'large-scale provocation.' https://kyivindependent.com/putin-calls-clashes-in-russias-kursk-region-large-scale-provocation/

Harris VP pick Governor Tim Walz good news for Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/harris-vp-pick-governor-tim-walz-good-news-for-ukraine/
Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate and current U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz — an outspoken Ukraine supporter — as her running mate for the U.S. presidential elections this fall.

⚡️Putin asks Iran for measured response against Israel, sources tell Reuters.
Putin asked Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, for a controlled retaliation against Israel, Reuters reported on Aug. 6, citing two senior Iranian officials. https://kyivindependent.com/putin-asks-iran-for-measured-response-against-israel-sources-tell-reuters/ [ironic that Russia's sending air defense to Israel, all things considered]

⚡️ Kyiv denies Russian claims of capturing Niu-York in Donetsk Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-capture-of-niu-york-ukraine-denies/

⚡️ Ukrainian special forces raid Russian-occupied island in Black Sea.
Ukrainian special forces destroyed Russian "equipment, personnel, and fortifications" during a raid of Tendra Spit off the coast of the occupied part of Kherson Oblast, Ukraine's military intelligence service said on Aug. 7. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-special-forces-raid/

⚡️ Ukrainian FPV drone hit Russian Mi-28 helicopter in 'historic' feat, source says. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-fpv-drones-allegedly-hits-russian-helicopter/ The drone operated by the Special Operations Center "A" of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) managed to hit the helicopter's tail rotor, the source said, calling it "a unique special operation in military history." @notimagain

⚡️Mexico invites Putin to its presidential inauguration https://kyivindependent.com/mexico-invites-putin-to-its-presidential-inauguration-russian-media-reports/ Russian media reports.

Russian authorities have informed the country's telecom operators that YouTube will be slowed down to 128 kilobytes a second, the independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported on Aug. 6, citing sources. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-reportedly-begins-slowing-youtube-speeds/

Vladimir Demchik, a former head of the Property Department of the Russian Defense Ministry, was arrested on corruption charges, the Russian Investigative Committee reported on Aug. 6. https://kyivindependent.com/ex-official-of-russian-defense-ministry-arrested/ [yet another]

⚡️ Germany to receive $480 million worth of Patriot missiles to backfill Ukraine aid.
The U.S. defense contractor Raytheon was granted a $478-million contract by the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) to supply GEM-T missile interceptors to Germany, the company said on Aug. 6.
The contract is meant to help replace the Patriot missiles Germany provided to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-to-receive-480-million-worth-of-patriot-missiles-to-backfill-ukraine-aid/

Estonia's Public Prosecutor's Office has charged Svetlana Burceva, an Estonian citizen who wrote for Russian state-run media, with treason and violating international sanctions, the media outlet ERR reported on Aug. 6. https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-charges-citizen-who-wrote-for-russian-state-media-with-treason/

⚡️Niger joins Mali in breaking https://kyivindependent.com/niger-joins-mali-in-breaking-diplomatic-ties-with-ukraine/ diplomatic ties with Ukraine.

⚡️Russian sailing frigate docks https://kyivindependent.com/russian-sailing-frigate-docks-in-french-port-despite-sanctions-afp-reports/ in French port despite sanctions, AFP reports.

⚡️Russian officials say 5 civilians killed https://kyivindependent.com/russian-officials-say-5-civilians-killed-20-injured-in-fighting-across-border-in-kursk-oblast/ 20 injured in fighting across border in Kursk Oblast.

⚡️ Azov soldier Ishchenko https://kyivindependent.com/ishchenko/ died in Russian captivity due to 'blunt force trauma,' report shows.

⚡️Update: Russian missile attack https://kyivindependent.com/russia-hits-medical-facility-in-kharkiv-people-may-be-trapped-under-rubble/ on Kharkiv kills 1, injures 12, including infant.

⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 3, injure 14 over past day. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-3-injure-13-over-past-day/

67 more artillery gone, 78 vehicles. The losses day after day are enormous.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson - AUG 7, 2024
■ Engagements slightly above average & increased casualties
■ Massive equipment losses; special equipment losses match record
■ Most 🇺🇦 strikes & best strike ratio since the middle of May