Ukraine Invasion: Part 50

[MagicFox]

Welcome, with love and thanks to all contributors and lurkers. Unbelievably, we’re on thread 50. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Watched a documentary on BBC iplayer this morning called “Hell Jumper” about non-military international volunteers in Ukraine. Worth a watch, gives a good idea of what these young men and women went through to help.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that the Russian military has significantly increased its manpower and materiel commitments to the war in Ukraine over the last two and a half years, but Syrskyi's statement is not indicative of a sudden increase in the Russian military's presence in Ukraine and is instead representative of the manpower and material disadvantage that Ukrainian forces have faced for over two years.
• Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with People's Republic of China (PRC) Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Guangzhou on July 24 and discussed the war in Ukraine and the PRC's potential role in a future negotiated settlement of the war.
• The Russian State Duma adopted an amendment on July 24 that will allow Russian commanders to punish subordinates for using personal communication and navigation devices at the frontline, drawing continued backlash from Russian ultranationalists as well as other Duma deputies.
• The Georgian State Security Service (SUS or SSSG) reiterated standard Kremlin information operations targeting former Georgian opposition figures and former Ukrainian law enforcement officials.
• An assassination attempt injured a reported senior Russian military intelligence officer in Moscow City on July 24.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Russian officials continue efforts to entice Russians into military service with monetary incentives.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️China confirms https://kyivindependent.com/china-confirms-it-wont-supply-russia-with-weapons-zelensky-says/ it won't supply weapons to Russia, Zelensky says

⚡️ US, Canada intercept Chinese, Russian aircraft near Alaska in first such case. https://kyivindependent.com/norad-intercepts-chinese-planes/ @notimagain
North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) intercepted two Russian Tu-95 and two Chinese H-6 military bomber aircraft operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on July 24, according to the command's statement.

⚡️Putin holds talks https://kyivindependent.com/putin-holds-talks-with-assad-in-moscow/ with Assad at the Kremlin, the president's press service said on July 25.

⚡️ Pokrovsk situation 'tense and difficult, Russian losses 3 times higher'* *https://kyivindependent.com/pokrovsk-situation-tense-and-difficult-ukraines-military-says/ Ukrainian military says.

⚡️ Russia reportedly fortifies Kerch Bridge in occupied Crimea. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-reportedly-fortifies-kerch-bridge/

⚡️Ukraine's 79th brigade says https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-79th-brigade/ it repelled one of largest Russian attacks near Kurakhove
The Russian army launched the attack from several directions simultaneously at dawn on July 24, the brigade said, sharing footage of the assault. The attack reportedly involved 57 armored vehicles, including 11 tanks, 12 motorcycles, and 200 assault vehicles.

⚡️ Russia will be forced to scale down its attacks in a month and a half. Russia will be unable to maintain the scale of its attacks in multiple sectors for a long time because its "capabilities are not unlimited," General Oleksandr Pivnenko, the commander of Ukraine's National Guard, said in an interview with Ukrinform published on July 25. https://kyivindependent.com/pivnenko-russia/

⚡️ Kyiv uncovers suspected Russian agent network https://kyivindependent.com/russian-sabotage-group-ukraine-eu/ planning sabotage in Ukraine, Europe.
The perpetrators intended to target shopping centers, gas stations, pharmacies, and markets in Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic countries, the SBU said on July 25.

⚡️ Czechia preparing new shell initiative https://kyivindependent.com/czechia-preparing-new-shell-initiative-to-support-ukraine-in-2025/ to supply Ukraine in 2025.

⚡️ Spain to provide additional Hawk https://kyivindependent.com/spain-to-provide-additional-hawk-air-defense-battery-to-ukraine/ air defense battery to Ukraine.

⚡️ Ukraine to receive 14 Leopard https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-netherlands-leopards2/ 2 tanks pledged by Netherlands, Denmark this summer.

Ukraine’s mobilization effort https://kyivindependent.com/digitalization-lifts-ukraines-army-mobilization-efforts-but-is-it-enough/ gets boost as millions update draft data
Around 3 million Ukrainians updated their personal data in the military reserve registry after a new mobilization law came into effect, most using the new Reserv+ app.
Now, it takes 10 minutes to fulfill the constitutional duty online instead of the weeks fearing the “classic process” with the queues and bureaucracy at the Soviet-styled draft offices.

⚡️Romania confirms https://kyivindependent.com/romania-confirms-russian-drone-debris-landed-on-its-territory/ Russian drone debris landed on its territory.

⚡️8 EU finance ministers: Russia lies https://kyivindependent.com/eu-finance-ministers-russia-lies-about-its-economic-strength-more-sanctions-needed/ about its economic strength, more sanctions needed
Russia is spreading a false narrative about the strength of its economy, which is likely deteriorating due to Western sanctions, finance ministers of eight European countries wrote in an op-ed for the Guardian published on July 24.

⚡️ Around 32% of Ukrainian families have enough income only to buy food, according to a survey published by the ZN ua media outlet on July 25 https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-families-economy/ 9% said they "do not have enough money even for food."

⚡️ Ukraine seeks to exchange pro-Russian collaborators https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-seeks-to-exchange-russian-collaborators-for-civilian-hostages-launches-new-initiative/ for civilian hostages under new initiative.

⚡️ UK, Germany sign defense deal https://kyivindependent.com/uk-germany-defense-deal/ as Trump's potential return looms over Ukraine aid.
The two largest European donors of military aid to Ukraine, Germany and the U.K., signed a defense pact on July 24 as London aims to "reset" security and defense ties with Europe.

⚡️Media: Special unit https://kyivindependent.com/media-special-unit-of-gru-recruiting-saboteurs-through-social-media/ of GRU recruiting saboteurs through social media.
A special unit of Russia's military intelligence agency (GRU) recruits individuals to perform sabotage operations inside Europe through Telegram and TikTok, the independent Russian anti-corruption project Dossier Center reported on July 23, 2024.

⚡️Tbilisi accuses https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-accuses-ex-officials-from-georgia-ukraine-of-plotting-to-kill-ruling-party-chairman-ivanishvili/ ex-officials from Georgia and Ukraine of plotting to kill ruling party chairman Ivanishvili.

⚡️ Russia forms 12 organizations https://kyivindependent.com/russia-creates-12-organizations-to-militarize-ukrainian-children-in-partially-occupied-zaporizhzhia-oblast/ to militarize children in occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Andrei Belkov, the head of the military construction company linked to Russia's Defense Ministry, was arrested on suspicion of corruption, the state-controlled media outlet Kommersant reported on July 24. https://kyivindependent.com/head-of-russian-military-company-linked-to-former-deputy-defense-minister-suspected-of-bribing-arrested-on-corruption-charges/

⚡️ Kherson Oblast fortifications are 97% complete https://kyivindependent.com/kherson-oblast-fortifications-97-complete-shmyhal-says/ Shmyhal says.

️Russia targets Kharkiv with cluster munitions https://kyivindependent.com/russia-targets-kharkiv-with-cluster-munitions-in-double-tap-strike-police-say/ in 'double tap' strike, police say.
"We are absolutely sure that the second time they used cluster munitions to hit the rescuers and police officers who were there," Volodymyr Tymoshko, the head of the National Police in Kharkiv Oblast, said on July 24.

A Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter crashed in Kaluga Oblast in western Russia, Governor Vladislav Shapsha reported on July 25. https://kyivindependent.com/mi-28/

⚡️ Suspect in murder of ex-MP Farion detained https://kyivindependent.com/suspect-in-murder-of-ex-mp-farion-detained-in-dnipro-zelensky-says/ in Dnipro, Zelensky says.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 4, injure 30 over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪

• JUL 25, 2024

■ Engagements & casualties stay above 7-day avg ■ Drone, APV, tank, special equipment & vehicle losses >avg ■ Janovsky: Additional 🇷🇺 losses bring 30-day ratio up to 3.2x ■ More strikes on both sides, strike ratio at 7-day avg

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The ambassadors of the 27 EU countries will convene today to deliberate on the European Commission's proposal for the indefinite immobilization of the assets of the Central Bank of Russia. According to The Financial Times, this move aims to address US concerns regarding the use of these funds to support a $50 billion loan to Ukraine.
Currently, the EU sanctions on Russian assets, which amount to €260 billion, are renewed every six months. This frequent renewal has caused apprehension among EU allies about the stability of the loan's repayment.
Another option under consideration is extending the sanctions' validity from six months to three years.
If EU member states do not agree on the extension of sanctions, the European Commission might initially allocate a larger portion of the loan, up to €40 billion, with adjustments made later as other countries commit their shares. [highlights from article]

🇵🇱 Poland has launched an operation to strengthen air defense on the eastern border, codenamed "Air Dawn," according to the country's Armed Forces.

Slovakia may introduce retaliatory measures in response to Ukraine’s decision to block the transit of Russian oil, according to President Peter Pellegrini, as reported by Denník N. Pellegrini emphasized that Bratislava has been supportive of Kyiv, notably through the reversal of gas supplies and the provision of electricity.

Putin's claims of robust economic growth are primarily fueled by the military industry and government subsidies, signaling an overheated rather than a stable economy. The ministers pointed out that military factories are operating at maximum capacity, and labor shortages are so severe that prison terms are reportedly being replaced with forced labor.
Other economic issues highlighted include:
- Rising inflation that remains uncontrollable despite high interest rates.
- Halving of the National Welfare Fund's liquid assets.
- Embargoes on fuel and sugar exports.
- Strict capital withdrawal controls.

Seven more Ukrainian children have been returned from the temporarily occupied territories, according to Save Ukraine. Among these children is the daughter of a Ukrainian military member who had been in the occupied territory for an extended period, as well as children who had not seen their parents for over two years.

In London, an exposition dedicated to Ukrainian athletes who have been killed in the war with Russia has been installed in Parliament Square. A large number 487, painted in the colors of the Ukrainian flag, represents the approximate number of athletes who have perished since the invasion began. Sports equipment used by the deceased athletes is displayed around the numbers, symbolizing their lost potential and the tragedy of their deaths.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺The European Commission rejects Hungary and Slovakia's request to urge Ukraine to lift the ban on the transit of Russian oil by Lukoil - Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ea9ce543-5aca-4b63-a1e3-b12bc0ccc9c1

⚡️ Kamala Harris has officially announced https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1816436341703397765 that she will run for the US presidency.
The Democratic Party convention, scheduled for August 19-22, must finally approve her as a candidate.

During the morning shelling of Kharkiv on July 24, the Russians used a cluster modification of the Iskander missile for the first time.
This was reported by Volodymyr Tymoshko, head of the Main Directorate of the National Police in the Kharkiv region, to the Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne https://suspilne.media/kharkiv/798055-rosia-vperse-vdarila-po-harkovu-kasetnim-iskanderom-24-lipna-so-ce-za-modifikacia/?utm_source=copylink&utm_medium=ps
According to the official, the first strike was on a civilian facility, then an industrial facility was targeted. Rescue workers and police sent there, and then the occupiers resorted to cluster weapons. That is, their goal was to kill and injure people who were assisting at the site of the previous hit.

Ukrainians will have less frequent power outages due to scheduled repairs of a power unit.
To partially cover the deficit in the power system, Energoatom's specialists completed the scheduled repair of the power unit two weeks ahead of schedule.
This added 1 GW of capacity to the system and significantly reduced the outage schedules.

Russia's neo-Nazi group NS/WP has claimed responsibility for the murder of Ukrainian woman Iryna Farion and showed a video with footage of the assassination attempt.
The organization posted a video with its manifesto. Terrorists, it was done by their anonymous associate, motivated by the fact that the ex-MP allegedly “incited hatred based on language within Ukrainian society.” https://t.me/liveukraine_media/22887
NS/WP stands for National Socialism/White Power. It originated in the mid-00s on an online forum. The organization is recognized as a terrorist organization in the Russian Federation. Radio Liberty writes that among the Russian far right, many have expressed confidence that NS/WP is a project of the Russian special services.

⚡️A suspect in the murder of Ukrainian linguist Iryna Farion has been detained in Dnipro, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/11233

Russian aggressors used weapons from WW1 against peaceful Ukrainians
Steel darts were supposed to be banned a hundred years ago because of their excessive cruelty. But now Russians are using them to attack Ukrainian schools. https://t.me/liveukraine_media/22891

The developers of the Ukrainian video game S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: The Heart of Chernobyl have once again postponed its release. The game is now scheduled for November 20 instead of September 5.

I don't think I've ever quoted myself before, but in this case, I think it's justified.

I was correct. It's the far-left progressives that are opposing Josh Shapiro as Kamala's VP pick for being too "pro-Israel". I'll c&p the article in case a paywall blocks you.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/07/24/josh-shapiro-kamala-harris-leading-vp-candidate-pro-israel/

Kamala Harris with Josh Shapiro, a leading choice for her running mate Credit: Kevin Mohatt

Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania governor, is too “pro-Israel” to be selected as Kamala Harris’ running mate, a New York Times columnist has claimed.

Mr Shapiro, 51, an observant Conservative Jew, is said to be one of two leading candidates for the coveted spot on the joint ticket this November.

The former attorney general of Pennsylvania has been a vocal supporter of Israel, has called out anti-Semitism on US university campuses and supported Israeli businesses targeted by pro-Palestinian protesters.

Ms Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is viewed more positively by some progressives in her party as she has been more willing to criticise Israel for its response to Hamas’s Oct 7 attack than Joe Biden.

Michelle Goldberg, an opinion columnist for the Left-wing newspaper, has warned Mr Shapiro’s support for Israel could lead to issues within the Democratic party.

Ms Goldberg said the expected “chaos” at the Democratic convention over Mr Biden’s support for Israel had largely decreased in light of the pivot to Ms Harris.

“A lot of those tensions have died down, in part because voters angry at Biden’s Israel policy are more comfortable with Harris, who is reported to be more sympathetic to the Palestinians”, Ms Goldberg said.

“Choosing Shapiro, who is ardently pro-Israel and outspoken in his condemnation of the recent campus protests, would rip those wounds open again”, she added.

Meanwhile, when discussing whether Ms Harris might select Mr Shapiro as her running mate, CNN anchor John King pointed out his religion when asked about the pros and cons of putting him on the ticket.

“He’s a first-term governor, he’s Jewish, there could be some risks in putting him on the ticket, but certainly some of our voters here in Pennsylvania said, ‘Hey, we like governor Shapiro, give him a look’,” Mr King said.

The comment was quickly refuted by Democrat congressman Ro Khanna, who said such thinking “has no place in America”.

“Josh Shapiro is enormously well respected by people of all faiths in suburban, rural, and metropolitan America and can absolutely win on a national ticket.”, he wrote on social media.

The Democratic party was sent a warning sign over divisions regarding the Biden administration’s Israel policy during the Michigan primary.

In the vital swing state, which the Democrats need to retain to win the election, more than 100,000 voters selected the “uncommitted” option, enough to pick up two delegates.

Mr Biden was beaten by the “uncommitted” vote in both Dearborn and Hamtramck, where Arab Americans make up close to half the population.

North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) intercepted two Russian Tu-95 and two Chinese H-6 military bomber aircraft operating in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) on July 24, according to the command's statement.

Oh to have been a fly on the wall at the briefs and debriefs……

I thought about posting this too, but decided it was more in your lane. I'd love to hear the AAR too.

This is why we have three USAF bases in Alaska. The cold air is great for short take-offs too.

Is this a big deal? It sounds like a tense situation.

I’ll leave the military part to the experts! But diplomatically speaking I think it’s the first time the Russians and Chinese have flown a mission like this together. As such it’s just further evidence of the closening cooperation.

Not really a big deal in terms of where they were…

TBH are lots of ADIZs around the world and all the term really means it’s airspace where for some reason an aircraft may be at increased risk of interception and investigation.

The important thing though is if the ADIZ is embedded in international airspace (more than twelve miles offshore) then an aircraft is perfectly entitled to fly there and all any interceptors can legally do is keep watch.

According to all reports I’ve seen the combined Russian/Chinese formation stayed well offshore, inside international airspace, so no big deal.

I think the only significance is it seems to be the first time anyone has seen a combined Russian/Chinese operation like this.

I think that there's a point being made here (and also with the drills in Belarus) that if the US seeks to push into the Indo-Pacific, China (due to its relationship with Russia) can now do the same in Europe

China has long been prickly about US air patrols going back decades, like this incident:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident

I think this is their way of showing they can do the same to us, just as the Russians have done for ages.

If Russia and China start ostensibly getting closer militarily especially in Europe, wouldn't it be 50 shades of stupid for Trump to support China's military ally Russia in Ukraine?

I am just but a simpleton.

Well yes, but you just perfectly described Trump!

I wonder if this will be found to be linked to Russia?

https://news.sky.com/story/vandals-target-paris-olympics-by-setting-fires-to-damage-high-speed-train-routes-13184855

I notice that France's Sports Minister Amélie Oudéa-Castera was asked if the arson attacks were the work of Russia and she said 'maybe' but also highlighted that they may well be protests from the French people.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-25-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces blunted one of the largest Russian mechanized assaults in Ukraine since October 2023 in western Donetsk Oblast on July 24.
• The Russian military command's willingness to expend a large number of armored vehicles on limited tactical objectives reflects poor longer-term operational foresight, and constraints on Russian equipment in the medium- to long-term will make such failed mechanized assaults costlier with time.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) indicated that Lieutenant General Sergey Kobylash has become Deputy Commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS).
• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov attempted to frame Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, while demonstrating the Kremlin's own unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations by reinvigorating Russian information operations falsely portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an "illegitimate" leader of Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues to strengthen its ties with the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states.
• The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and National Police announced that they neutralized a group connected to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) that had been preparing to commit arson against civilian objects in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.
• Select Russian officials continue to call for measures targeting diaspora groups while the Russian government continues efforts to extend its control over migrants in Russia.
• Syrian President Bashar al Assad met with Russian President Vladmir Putin in Moscow on July 24.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Robotyne, and Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Kharkiv City and near Toretsk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on July 24 granting deferments from military conscription to employees of the Russian Prosecutor General's Office and Investigative Committee who have higher education and special ranks starting in September 2024.

• Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov attempted to frame Ukraine as unwilling to negotiate, while demonstrating the Kremlin's own unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations by reinvigorating Russian information operations falsely portraying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an "illegitimate" leader of Ukraine.

It does feel like we're creeping towards the point where negotiations will begin, whether they're in good faith or not. There's just too much rhetoric around them for it to be the case that nothing is going on in the background to facilitate a start to them.

Noting too all the shuttle diplomacy of late.

I’m not sure what you really mean there by the French people.

The games have been a tough sell but most folk are onside, even the unions have been quiet (so presumably have been paid off) and the general population generally want the games to work.

There’s been the odd localised attack on individual lines over the years nothing on this scale, obviously Russian involvement has to be considered but I wouldn’t put it past some absolute head bangers/trouble makers who are aligned with the black block or even some associated with the extreme wing of some environmental movements..

I don't know either, it was a direct quote on Sky News. I'm assuming they mean a criminal act carried out by French citizens for domestic reasons (as opposed to foreign interference).

Ah ok, thanks

I’m not really sure what Sky are on about … I’m certainly not aware of a widespread “citizens against the games movement” or anything similar.

Interestingly BBC news are just interviewing their correspondent in Paris and he suggested that suspicion is currently on the far left.

That wouldn’t surprise me at all...

At first glance what was done seems well planned, be interesting to see if there’s any hint of involvement from the inside.

Wonder if the office of the rail workers element of the CGT (main trade union) is going to get a knock on the door, or more likely the door knocked down by the flics in the early hours AM any day soon.