Ukraine Invasion: Part 48

[MagicFox]

That last one went quickly! Welcome to thread 48. Thanks as usual to all for the information, guidance and solidarity.

**
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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

⚡️Consequences of the night strike on Dzhankoy, — Russian media
According to information disseminated by Russian media, the following were destroyed:
▪️3 S-400 launchers
▪️1 S-400 radar
▪️2 S-300 launchers
▪️Warehouse of S-300/400 missiles
22 people are missing, the reception and repair point for military equipment was hit. [this sounds like a really significant success]

The German government has initiated efforts to secure additional air defense resources that can be provided to Ukraine.
Foreign Minister Baerbock and Defense Minister Pistorius have reached out to partners within the EU and NATO, as well as to third countries, according to spokespersons from both ministries

According to the "Center for Journalistic Investigations," the Russians have constructed over 100 kilometers of fortifications along the Black Sea coast in Crimea and the Kherson Region within a month.
In Crimea, the coastal defense line stretches from the village of Mykolaivka in the Simferopol district to Krasnoperekopsk (Yana Kapu) near the administrative border with the Kherson region. Additional fortifications extend northward along the coast, with a significant concentration around Cape Tarkhankut, where Russian air defense systems are stationed.
On the western coast of Crimea, the occupiers have erected fortifications in reserves, natural parks, archaeological sites, and tourist areas. For instance, near the Northern (Nemse Çağaltai) Black Sea District, coastal defense fortifications have been built on the ruins of an ancient settlement.
In February-March 2024, fortifications appeared in the occupied part of the Kherson region, particularly around the villages of Oleksandrivka, Oleksiivka, Prymorske, and Ozerne. Alongside these constructions, the Russians are actively restoring and expanding roads, enhancing military logistics in the area.

Scholz wants Xi to force Russia to stop the war. Xi wants Europe to stop trade war — Politico comments on the results of the first day of talks between the leaders of China and Germany in Beijing. .............
Xi offered no new commitments to Ukraine:
"All our efforts are aimed at the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and the timely convening of an international peace conference recognized by both Russia and Ukraine."

Ukraine offers the USA to create a supervisory board for the investment attraction office Ukraine Invest, — said Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal.

Organizers in France have confirmed that they will extend an invitation to Russia for the celebrations on June 6, commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Allied landings in Normandy. However, they clarified that the invitation will not be extended directly to the Kremlin's head, Putin.

Ukraine's membership in NATO is only for the benefit of the Third World. An independent Ukraine is enough for us, — said Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russian telegram channels and the OSINT community publish https://x.com/frontukrainian/status/1780564585528844490?s=46&t=hmPdh3epcvbnoUN2TQsSDw* the first photos of the alleged consequences of the night strike on the Dzhankoy military airfield in Crimea*
Preliminarily, three S-400 launchers, one S-400 radar station were destroyed, two S-300 launchers were destroyed or critically damaged, as well as a warehouse with ammunition for these missile systems. There may be dead and wounded among the occupiers.
The Russians claim that the base was hit by an MGM-140 ATACMS missile and publish photos of the wreckage.

🇨🇳🇺🇦🇷🇺 Chinese leader Xi Jinping has supported https://news.cctv.com/2024/04/16/ARTIOES2kWLQmk9hsdNm4NLX240416.shtml?spm=C96370.PPDB2vhvSivD.E0O8qNryTckW.1 the holding of a peace summit but wants to see Russia there as well.
Xi Jinping said this during talks with the German Chancellor. He called for a conference "with the participation of all parties" and named four principles that, in his opinion, would prevent "the escalation of the conflict." These principles are rather vague: focus on the overall peace situation, do not add fuel to the fire, avoid further escalation of conflicts, and reduce the negative impact on the global economy.
Zelensky is against Russia's participation in the summit.
▪️The first peace summit at the level of state leaders will be held in Switzerland on June 15-16. Zelensky expects up to 100 countries to participate in the event.

🇩🇪🇱🇹Rheinmetall will build https://eimin.lrv.lt/lt/ziniasklaidai/naujienos/pasirasytas-lietuvos-instituciju-ir-vokietijos-imones-rheinmetall-ketinimo-protokolas-del-amunicijos-gamyklos-lietuvoje/* a 155-mm artillery ammunition plant in Lithuania*
The Lithuanian government and the German company signed a memorandum of intent today to start construction as soon as possible.

🇦🇿🇷🇺 In Azerbaijan, media reported the beginning of the withdrawal of so-called Russian "peacekeepers" from the territory of the former unrecognized republic of Nagorno-Karabakh, which Baku has regained control of.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov confirmed that Russia was withdrawing "peacekeeping forces" from Karabakh.

Another dam has broken in Russia: water is drowning Tomsk https://t.me/liveukrainemedia/20117

Russia's "Channel One" falsely accused Ukraine of deploying "Canadian mercenaries". The chevrons Russian propagandists claimed to be Canadian turned out to depict the flag of Russian Udmurt Republic.

Big news! Mike Johnson will put four bills on the floor simultaneously, including a bill for Ukraine aid, for a vote on Saturday.

Unless I'm badly misreading the situation, if he keeps his job for another few days, Ukraine aid should pass with a combination of Democrat and Republican votes. It would then go back to the Senate for reconciliation with the bill they passed in February. Stay tuned.

Mike Johnson Defies GOP Critics, Setting Up Ukraine-Israel Aid Showdown - House speaker to release four-part legislation later Wednesday, plans vote Saturday

WHOOP!!🙌

Let's hope the Putin faction in Congress doesn't put any spanners in the works.

I think there was always the sense that if they could get it to the floor it would pass.

Some better news at last! 🤞

Holding my breath ...

To be fair to Mike Johnson, while he does hold some fairly fundamentalist religious views, he's doing the right thing here, even though it's likely going to end his career politically. Mike Pence, the former VP under Trump, holds similar religious views. He also did the right thing when Trump tried to get him to help steal the election, and that also has pretty much ended his career in politics.

I guess my point is that most Americans will do the right thing when it comes down to it, even if their worldview seems a little odd to us.

MissConductUS
I guess my point is that most Americans will do the right thing when it comes down to it, even if their worldview seems a little odd to us.

And yet about one third of the adult, voting population apparently feel that the right thing to do is to vote for Trump. There is no explaining it. Those of you who are not bamboozled by his demagoguery must be seriously puzzled, especially when it's people you know and thought quite ordinary before this mental plague occurred. (We probably felt the same in the UK about some of the otherwise apparently normal people who support(ed) the National Front, only there aren't so many of them.)

I do think it’s important to remember how big and diverse the US is. For many people they’ll have grown up in small, white, Christian communities to whom Ukraine and other places (including even Washington and New York) seem a million miles away but who can scarcely afford any increase in things like fuel prices. The last thing they want their Govt doing is (in their eyes) sending money to foreign countries. Trump speaks to many people like that who frequently see their values reflected in him (often wrongly as I’m not sure he actually has any fundamental values).

These people aren’t idiots they’ve just been sold a lie.

I agree with this. Similar to Brexit voters perhaps.

@blueshoes i am glad you got home safely 💐

That's true, but there's more to it as well. Biden's policies have hurt many people. Millions of voters work in the energy industry, for example.

'Now They’re Voting Red’: A Pennsylvania Fracking Boom Weighs on Biden’s Re-Election Chances

Student loan forgiveness helps him with the 13% of the public who have student loans, but it seems a bit unfair to the other 87% who never benefited from them. DH and I worked hard to put our kids through uni without loans. Now, that doesn't look like such a smart thing to have done. There are other similar issues.

Biden ran as a center-left politician, but has let the far left of his party set policy, and now it's hurting him.

The choice just sucks doesn't it. We need younger politicians who will be around for the future they shape. We need them EVERYWHERE

I suspect that Fox News is responsible for a huge amount of the lack of critical thinking in the US - if you can't get balanced news at the end of a hard day's work, and you haven't been taught how to think critically, then you have no tools to start really asking questions.

Fox News is horrible, but the other side doesn’t have clean hands either.

https://www.thefp.com/p/npr-editor-how-npr-lost-americas-trust

And so there is no neutral, trustworthy source :s

@MissConductUS How quickly do you think we will know the results of the vote?

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson said he is moving forward with his plan to hold a vote on a series of foreign aid bills for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan despite pressure from Republican hardliners, CNN reported on April 17. https://kyivindependent.com/johnson-says-vote-on-ukraine-israel-foreign-aid-bills-to-take-place-on-april-20/

The House of Representatives published the content of the aid bill for Ukraine, which allocates over $60 billion in assistance and calls for the delivery of long-range ATACMS missiles after the enactment. https://kyivindependent.com/johnson-says-vote-on-ukraine-israel-foreign-aid-bills-to-take-place-on-april-20/

⚡️Microsoft: A Russian online disinformation campaign targeting the upcoming U.S. election has begun, Microsoft said in a report released on April 17. https://kyivindependent.com/microsoft-says-russian-disinformation-campaign-targeting-us-election-has-begun/

⚡️EU to introduce https://kyivindependent.com/eu-to-introduce-new-sanctions-against-iran-after-its-attack-on-israel/ new sanctions against Iran after its attack on Israel, reiterates 'full' support for Ukraine.

⚡️ Belgium, Czechia ask EU to step in against Russia's elections interference. https://kyivindependent.com/belgium-czechia-russa/
The governments of Belgium and Czechia sent a letter to other EU leaders on April 17 calling for new restrictive measures against Russia over its disinformation activities within the European bloc.

⚡️ Dutch PM offers to buy Patriot systems https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-pm-offers-to-buy-patriot-systems-from-allies-for-ukraine/ from allies for Ukraine The Guardian reported [MH17 is not forgotten. I have to say, the Dutch are slow to anger, but when they are angry ......! Don't piss off the Dutch]

A secret Kremlin foreign policy document calls for Russia to leverage the war in Ukraine and exploit weaknesses in "unfriendly states" in order to forge a new global order in which the U.S. no longer plays a leading role, the Washington Post reported on April 17. https://kyivindependent.com/wp-secret-kremlin-document-outlines-plan-to-weaken-ukraines-allies/

⚡️ Ukraine to receive $1.6 billion https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-receive-1-5-billion-euros-from-eu-next-week-in-second-tranche-of-financial-aid/ from EU next week in second tranche of financial aid.

⚡️ Media: Germany launches new Ukraine air defense initiative https://kyivindependent.com/germany-launches-new-ukraine-air-defense-initiative-appeals-to-eu-and-nato-allies/ and appeals to EU and NATO allies, the Tagesschau outlet reported on April 17, citing spokespeople of Germany's defense and foreign ministries.

A NATO-Ukraine Council meeting to discuss supplies of air defense systems will take place on April 19, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on April 17.
https://kyivindependent.com/date-set-for-ukraine-nato-council-meeting-on-air-defense/

⚡️Prosecutor's Office: At least 543 children have been killed https://kyivindependent.com/prosecutors-office-543-children-were-killed-in-ukraine-due-to-russias-full-scale-invasion/ in Ukraine since start of full-scale invasion.

⚡️Kremlin confirms https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-confirms-russian-peacekeepers-withdrawing-from-nagorno-karabakh/ Russian 'peacekeepers' withdrawing from Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russia has begun withdrawing its "peacekeeping" contingent from Nagorno-Karabakh, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on April 17, according to Russian independent media outlet Meduza.

⚡️Reuters: Ukraine says https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-ukraine-says-russias-use-of-illegal-tear-gas-on-battlefield-is-increasing/ Russia's use of illegal tear gas on battlefield is increasing.

Russia plans to sow disinformation in African media that accuses Ukraine of using Western-supplied arms to fight in Sudan, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on April 17. https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-planning-disinformation-campaign-in-african-media-about-ukrainian-fighters-in-sudan/

⚡️ Sources: HUR confirms attack on Russian bomber factory https://kyivindependent.com/sources-hur-confirms-attack-on-russian-bomber-factory-in-tatarstan/ in Tatarstan.
A factory in Russia's Tatarstan producing bomber aircraft for the Russian military was attacked by Ukrainian drones on the morning of April 17, a military intelligence source told the Kyiv Independent.

Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal met with U.S. business leaders in Washington on April 17 to discuss continued cooperation and the need for "more support and help to stop the enemy." https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-pm-meets-with-u-s-business-leaders-in-washington/

German authorities arrested two German-Russian nationals suspected of planning a military sabotage plot on behalf of Russian intelligence, Germany's Federal Prosecutor's Office said on April 18. https://kyivindependent.com/german-authorities-arrest-2-for-allegedly-planning-military-sabotage-plot-on-russias-behalf/

⚡️Poll: Ukraine among countries with lowest nuclear threat fear https://kyivindependent.com/poll-ukraine-among-countries-with-lowest-fear-of-nuclear-threat/ according to a survey by the Sociological Group Rating conducted in 2023 together with Gallup International and published on April 17.

Update: Death toll of Russian missile attack on Chernihiv rises to 17. https://kyivindependent.com/russian-missile-attack-on-chernihiv-results-into-casualties-governor-says/ Some 60 people are reported as injured, including three children, the service said.

Inside the Swedish ammunition plant https://kyivindependent.com/inside-the-swedish-ammunition-plant-at-the-forefront-of-europes-push-to-ramp-up-shell-production/ at the forefront of Europe’s push to ramp up shell production
The Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell visited one of Europe’s foremost manufacturers of NATO-standard shells, the Nammo ammunition plant.

Explainer: Iran's cheap, effective Shahed drones and how Russia uses them in Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/explainer-irans-cheap-effective-shahed-drones-and-how-russia-uses-them-in-ukraine/

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's investigation project Schemes revealed on April 17 that over 2,000 foreign-made electronic components are allegedly contained in Russian Sukhoi (Su-type) fighter jets, primarily originating from Japan and the United States. https://kyivindependent.com/rfe-rl-schemes-investigation-reveals-over-2-000-foreign-made-parts-used-in-russian-sukhoi-fighter-jets/

⚡️UPDATE: Russian missile attack on Chernihiv kills 18 https://kyivindependent.com/update-russian-missile-attack-on-chernihiv-kills-18-injures-78-including-children/ injures 78, including children.

⚡️ NGO Save Ukraine rescues 6 more children https://kyivindependent.com/ngo-save-ukraine-saves-6-more-children-their-families-from-russian-occupation/ their families from Russian occupation.

The Time magazine published its list of "The 100 most influential people of 2024," including Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine's Presidential Office, and Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. https://kyivindependent.com/time-names-yermak-navalnaya-among-100-most-influential-people-of-2024/

⚡️ Transparency International: Court leaves ex-Defense Ministry official suspected of embezzlement without pre-trial detention. https://kyivindependent.com/transparency-international-court-doesnt-detain-ex-defense-ministry-official-accused-of-embezzlement/

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦

■ Another day of modest equipment losses
■ Engagements & casualties above 7-day average however
■ 89 🇷🇺 artillery strikes vs 2 🇺🇦 ones

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

For the first time, Ukraine will participate in NATO’s largest cyber security exercises.
The Locked Shields 2024 exercise will involve approximately 4,000 experts from over 40 countries, tasked with protecting the infrastructure of a fictional nation and its systems under conditions closely resembling real life.

The draft laws outlining aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan have surfaced on the website of the US House of Representatives.
The aid package for Ukraine includes an allocation of $61 billion, with $23 billion designated for replenishing US arsenals.
Within 45 days of adoption, the State Department and the Pentagon must present the US strategy for supporting Kyiv. The document also outlines the provision of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine.

More details regarding the $7.8 billion in direct financial aid, along with the conditions governing its allocation:
▫️ Funds are available until September 30, 2025.
▫️ The funds must remain accessible regardless of any legal restrictions prohibiting aid to foreign countries.
▫️ Allocations intended to support the budget cannot be utilized for pension reimbursements.
▫️ Repayment conditions stipulate that all economic assistance provided to Ukraine must be repaid under terms established by the President. However, the repayment agreement may not include the cancellation of any or all amounts owed, except as specified below.
▫️ Debt cancellation: The President is barred from canceling any debt until November 15, 2024. Subsequently, up to 50% of the total debt can be canceled, subject to congressional review. Any remaining debt could also be canceled after January 1, 2026, once again subject to congressional review.
However, strict monitoring and control mechanisms will be implemented to oversee the utilization of these funds.

Three Iris-T systems are already in Ukraine, with more to come this year, — Helmut Rauch, head of manufacturing company Diehl Defense.
In a comment to the Bild, he mentioned that one of the systems will be in Ukraine in the next few weeks. Rauch's company is engaged in production.

German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck arrives in Kyiv.
Robert Habeck has come with a delegation that includes representatives of the German defense industry and energy sector “to check once again on the ground what support the energy infrastructure needs.”

"2,000 units of short-range Electronic Combat Radio, developed by Ukrainian developers affiliated with the Brave1 cluster, are being dispatched to the front," stated Minister of Digital Transformation Fedorov.

In Wales, an explosion occurred at the factory of the largest British arms manufacturer.
BAE Systems stated that safety protocols were activated following the explosion at the plant and reassured that there was no risk to the residents of surrounding settlements.
Last year, BAE Systems commenced construction of facilities there for the production of ammunition, mortars, medium- and large-caliber artillery shells, and tank shells.”

The voting will start on Saturday. Under House rules, the members must give their staff a few days to review the bills. I don't think it's a given that all four will be voted on that day and there's no information about what order they be brought up in.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇺🇸 Joe Biden has announced https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/04/17/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-the-houses-national-security-supplemental/ that he will sign separate bills that include aid to Ukraine.

🇳🇱 The Netherlands has delivered three more F-16 fighter jets to a training center in Romania, where Ukrainian pilots are being trained
Last November, they delivered eight of the 18 promised F-16s to the training center. In total, the country has promised to supply 24 fighters for use in Ukraine.

🇬🇪Footage of a rally of thousands against the draft law "on foreign agents" in Tbilisi on Rustaveli Avenue https://t.me/liveukraine_media/20153

Polish President Andrzej Duda met https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/17/trump-duda-nyc-meeting-00152971** privately with Donald Trump in New York's Trump Tower.
The two discussed the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as NATO member defense spending, including Duda's proposal that allies spend at least 3% of their GDP on defense.
Duda was one of Trump's international partners during his presidency. He called the meeting with Trump "friendly in a very good atmosphere." Details of the conversation and possible agreements between them are unknown. Before Duda's visit, Trump called their relationship "personal."

@MissConductUS Thanks ... so it could take some days to know?

⚡️ Dutch PM offers to buy Patriot systems https://kyivindependent.com/dutch-pm-offers-to-buy-patriot-systems-from-allies-for-ukraine/ from allies for UkraineThe Guardian reported [MH17 is not forgotten. I have to say, the Dutch are slow to anger, but when they are angry ......! Don't piss off the Dutch]

Will be sure to keep on the good side of the Dutch 😂

These countries should just give Ukraine those Patriots. Come on. Does UK have any?

Praying for the Ukraine aid bill to be passed in the US House. Never thought I'd say this but rooting for Mike Johnson.

@blueshoes

These countries should just give Ukraine those Patriots.

Problem is nations are worried about denuding their own capability and stocks…plus is the ask just for war rounds or also all the hardware you need to fire the things?

Does UK have any?

No.