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Birth rate hits record low - 1.49 children per woman

453 replies

MidnightPatrol · 23/02/2024 10:46

The ONS has released its latest data on the UK birthrate.

The number of children per women has dropped from 1.55 in 2022 to 1.49 in 2022 - the lowest on record.

This is the lowest number of births in the UK since 2002 - when the population was 10 million people smaller.

Do we think this problem will inevitably worsen? Are there particular reasons people are having less children (unique to the UK vs the rest of the world?).

Should we be taking steps to increase it / stop it reducing further?

OP posts:
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lemmefinish · 23/02/2024 19:54

I think the stats are that most healthcare costs over one's lifetime are actually accrued in the last 1-3 years whenever that may be

@ThePure where have you heard that?

“The data shows that an 85-year-old man costs the NHS about seven times more on average than a man in his late 30s. Health spending per person steeply increases after the age of 50, with people aged 85 and over costing the NHS an average of £7,000 a year.”

ItsAllAboutTheDosh · 23/02/2024 20:06

Most healthcare costs are at in your early years, birth, baby and toddler, and nearer the end of your life.
Like my father. Never had an operation in his life or spent a night in hospital after being a toddler. He was in hospital for 2 weeks as a toddler. Then in his older age fell down the stairs, was in an ICU bed, and died 5 days later.

FacingDivorceButSad · 23/02/2024 20:08

It's not really surprising. Reasons no doubt include;

  • cost of child care is high until they start school and places in before/after school clubs aren't guaranteed.
  • retirement age has gone up so many people who would get help from grandparents now don't because they themselves are still working
  • push for university education and careers in general mean women are establishing their careers and therfore delay having children

I don't think it's a bad thing the population is decreasing though. I think it needs to come down slightly. It's clearly not sustainable as it is

BooseysMom · 23/02/2024 20:08

Iheartmysmart · 23/02/2024 11:31

I wasn’t sure if I wanted children at all for a long time. When I finally had DS, the birth and postnatal care was so dreadful I didn’t have another.

Yep, me too! This is exactly what happened to me and i never had another.

BruFord · 23/02/2024 20:09

@MrsDanversGlidesAgain I honestly do think that the stigma towards women choosing to be childfree is finally dying out, thank goodness. My DD (18), DS (15) and their peers definitely see it as a valid choice-even my age group do.

DH and I are the only ones in our immediate family to have children, everyone else is childfree by choice.

ThePure · 23/02/2024 20:31

ifs.org.uk/articles/how-does-spending-nhs-inpatient-care-change-last-years-life

The reason that spending is more on over 85s is because they are more likely to die in the next year. It's explained in the article above

Plus it makes intuitive sense doesn't it? My dad aged 75 has cost the health service nothing at all this year. He hasn't even been to the GP and he's on no meds. It's illegal health no age per sr that is costly it's just that those are usually associated.

ThePure · 23/02/2024 20:35


Not sure if this will post properly but basically shows that most of the increased spending is due to people who will die within 1 year.

ThePure · 23/02/2024 20:35

No it didn't post the image but anyway the graph is in the link if interested

WithACatLikeTread · 23/02/2024 20:46

ItsAllAboutTheDosh · 23/02/2024 14:11

Couples are having babies later and as a result infertility is increasing. There is research that shows a large proportion of women who do not have children, did want children.
We need to stop pushing the message that infertility treatment is usually successful. A lot of infertility treatment has fairly low outcomes, especially with older couples.

Quite a lot of couples having IVF are actually not late 30's. I started TTC in my mid twenties and had IVF at 29. Just pointing out that that many that have IVF didn't leave it late to have a family. There is a rise in infertility though (male factor).

Babyroobs · 23/02/2024 20:52

I live in a very diverse city though and a significant number of the muslim population have 3/4 kids. This just seems to be the norm.

ItsAllAboutTheDosh · 23/02/2024 20:54

Which shows it is not simply about money.

lemmefinish · 23/02/2024 20:56

@ThePure

Interesting, but doesn’t the graph still show costs rising for those who survive another 5 yrs & isn’t the issue the sheer number of older people that will be in that demographic? Your dad sounds fantastic but statistically healthy life expectancy is only 64 I think.

MorwennaBogtrotter · 23/02/2024 21:05

It matters because the influx of ppl from different countries coupled with declining birth rate will naturally lead to a significant shift in our demographics, culture and political landscape.

It is a grievous oversight to assume that culture will sustain itself effortlessly. Cultures must be nurtured, preserved and actively upheld in order to endure through the ages.

If those who care about feminism, LGB rights and environmentalism don't have children the future of Britain will possibly be less feminist and less environmentalist and less LGB friendly. Maybe even anti-feminist, anti-environmentalist and anti-LGB. Communities that hold opposing views are already continuing to grow in number.

Re those who mention previous waves of migration in the UK through the ages + implying there are no real british people. While I mostly agree re use of the term indigenous, there is a distinct genetic lineage of the British population that has evolved over centuries. Over time the British people have established a Christian based culture (even if many of it today exists unconsciously – it exists) that will crumble under the weight of unintegrated cultures with higher birth rates. Many of our societal systems rely on the unconscious acceptance of Christian principles eg the English political tradition. In the West, Christian principles have led to a clear distinction between church and state, while in some societies, religious and political authority may be more intertwined take for example Sharia law and shape legal systems.

If we had lower birth rates to contend with alone, we could gradually increase them over time, as history has shown during times of war. However, we are now living on the same island with much more people from different cultures that may not align with traditional British values, that are maintaining replacement-level birth rates while our own rates are rapidly declining.

How do we combat this?

I don't know how we combat this. But I do think instilling fear and pressuring women into rushing into childbirth, as the men in Manosphere podcasts might advocate, would only exacerbate existing social issues like DV & poverty.

One potential solution could be to explore a feminist approach that places greater emphasis on the value of Motherhood. As well as policies to help women balance their careers and family aspirations. I think we could benefit from normalising women to return to careers later in life so that those who want to can prioritise starting a family over career advancement.

On a more personal note, I'm one of those unintended childless womwn in my nearly mid 30s who prioritiswd my career over starting a family. Feminism needs to acknowledge that not all women can delay motherhood and still easily conceive in their 30s. We need to strike a balance that allows women to choose their careers without assuming fertility will always be there.

Soz for the essay. 🫖

Perihelion · 23/02/2024 21:16

ThePure agreed. Did hospice at home for my mum, pre Covid.
Have watched FIL over the past 2 years be a huge drain on the NHS. Scans and all sorts to find out if he has Parkinson's or lewy body's dementia. Why? He's 93, he's fucked and it makes little to no difference to his care.
Now in a care home, no quality of life, basically a non responsive breathing body with multiple antibiotic prescriptions, because his swallow reflex is knackered.
Fuck that.

sugar87 · 23/02/2024 21:19

BooseysMom · 23/02/2024 20:08

Yep, me too! This is exactly what happened to me and i never had another.

This is the main reason putting me off too. I’m scared to roll the dice again.

Gloriosaford · 23/02/2024 21:22

@MorwennaBogtrotter
instilling fear and pressuring women into rushing into childbirth, as the men in Manosphere podcasts might advocate, would only exacerbate existing social issues like DV & poverty
For the Manosphere people exacerbation of poverty & DV (for women) is all part of the attraction!
Soz for the essay
Not at all, thank you for taking the time!👏

Simonjt · 23/02/2024 21:32

Its only very very recently that being married/having a partner and not having children was a choice that could be made. Its only in the last few years started to become more sociallg acceptable.

Where we live childcare is very cheap and easily available from 12 months, we pay around £84 a month for fulltime childcare, and when I say fulltime, it runs earlier enough and late enough for most. Flexible working for parents is the norm and it is essentially expected that parents will take up flexible hours. Parent leave is generous and much easier to split between the couple, you don’t end up with a clueless idiot in HR who can’t work out what to do. Wrap around care is available to all, all children receive FSM throughout their schooling and social housing is easier to gain.

It doesn’t however give us a higher birth rate, in 2020 we were at 1.66, I’m not sure what it is at the moment. Financial incentives will only ever benefit those who want children, or who want a larger family. If someone wants no children, or just one cheap childcare isn’t going to change their mind.

Here resources mean parenting and working isn’t a challenge like it can be in the UK, but if you’re well educated, you enjoy your life, and you’re on the fence, you’re still likely to decide no as no matter what, having children changes and limits your life forever.

We have two, if we’d have struggled financially we would have still gone for two, we could afford a third, but we do not want anymore than two, no incentives could change our minds. I mean it wouldn’t increase the number of children anyway, but I imagine a lot of people couldn’t be persuaded to up their ideal number of children, especially when they’ve had their first and discovered the reality of parenting.

Abeona · 23/02/2024 21:39

Feminism needs to acknowledge that not all women can delay motherhood and still easily conceive in their 30s. We need to strike a balance that allows women to choose their careers without assuming fertility will always be there.

Feminists already acknowledge that. I hope you don't assume that just because many feminists have supported the right of women not to have children they don't also support the rights of women who choose to be mothers. Feminists have fought for maternity rights, childcare and flexible working for mothers.

One of the most bizarre things about this thread is that we're all discussing motherhood and women and know exactly what we're talking about, while out there in the wider world the man most likely to be our next prime minister says that some women have penises and the NHS is busy removing removing the words 'woman' and 'mother' from all its communications. If women's biology is so important to the nation, why isn't motherhood better rewarded and supported? If transwomen are women, why aren't the politicians urging them to have more babies?

EilonwyWithRedGoldHair · 23/02/2024 22:03

I'd probably have chosen to have a child younger than I did - I was 35 - but it took us until I was 32 to be able to buy a house and then we wanted to get married first and when we did start ttc it took another nine or ten months iirc.

I did always want two but I was left with birth trauma, and by the time we were thinking maybe we could try for a second I had some health problems which ultimately required surgery and we had our hands full with DS (who was eventually diagnosed with autism, but that's another story).

IwishIcouldfinishabook · 23/02/2024 22:09

BruFord · 23/02/2024 20:09

@MrsDanversGlidesAgain I honestly do think that the stigma towards women choosing to be childfree is finally dying out, thank goodness. My DD (18), DS (15) and their peers definitely see it as a valid choice-even my age group do.

DH and I are the only ones in our immediate family to have children, everyone else is childfree by choice.

Mine too. I have 10 cousins on my mother's side, living all over the world. We are all aged 30-50. Out of all if us only me and one cousin has children, even though we are all married. so in one generation we have gone from 10 to 4. That may well go up amongst my youngest cousins but I doubt by that much.

TerrifiedOfNoise · 23/02/2024 22:09

MidnightPatrol · 23/02/2024 11:56

There has been a 17% decrease in the birth rate in London in the last 10 years.

It's just so expensive people are either leaving to have families, not having them, or having very small families.

The cost of housing is probably the major one, before you look at the £2k+ a month childcare cost.

A lot of people leave London when having children because of cost and because of the lifestyle they want to have. I am one of them and even if I had wanted to stay I simply couldn’t have afforded the childcare bill. I now live in Shropshire and my mortgage and childcare bill combined is less than the rent of a 1 bed flat in London.

stayathomer · 23/02/2024 22:16

If there’s anyone here who actually does want to have more children, just to let you know having more than two children is not the dystopian hell you’re seeing on here- we don’t go skiing or wear brands, but am just in bed after a fun games night with dh and 4 kids and tomorrow morning we’re off for a hike with the dog (all free cost wise;)) and, shock horror, we’re generally happy, including me, I don’t feel I’ve lost anything by having children, we’ve gone through gigantic ups and downs but I gained my whole world and regret nothing.

AnnBerlin24 · 23/02/2024 22:26

Octomingo · 23/02/2024 14:57

People always blame immigration for waits in a&e and housing etc, but it's old people who tend to be living in houses too big for them (my dad, aunty June, aunty Maureen, uncle John and aunty Deb- all 75+) and who tend to spend a larger proportion of their time in gp surgeries and hospitals. Personally, I think we should legalise euthanasia. I've seen the way some of my elderly relatives are existing. I don't want that. Let me retire at 65, have a good 10 years (which is still less than the generation above me) and I'll pop off. My kids will be 45ish, so if there's any money left, it will benefit them more than me.

And primary schools need more kids. There are already starting to be redundancies and mixed classes.

I don't disagree with legalised euthanasia but I think you are being very flippant about deciding to end your life. I think a lot of people are, when it's still an abstract, far off, idea. Let's see how you actually feel when you get to 75 yrs old, your children still need you and you adore spending time with your beloved grandchildren. Go and see how easy it is then.

Abeona · 23/02/2024 22:34

Just think how valuable all of us who didn't have children are to our nieces and nephews. Lucky kids where there are lots of unmarried uncles and aunts, with inheritances trickling in from all angles.