Iceland - possible eruption due near the Blue Lagoon

[KenAdams]

Is anyone following this?

https://icelandmonitor.mbl.is/news/news/2023/11/03/coming_close_to_an_eruption/

The main concern is the power plant next to the lagoon.

There are constant mini eruptions happening too - https://vafri.is/quake/

What's all this?

livefromiceland.is/multiview/

en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes

Isak's just started a livestream, Shawn is about to wrap his up.

Gosh here we go again.

Where has it opened up? Are Svartsengi power station and the Blue Lagoon at tisk again?

Depending on whether the defensive walls hold or not, they could be at risk, because that's the way the lava is flowing.

I found another webcam from Vogar, so further north, which shows 2 erupting areas. I presume the one with a lot of steam is a phreatic eruption caused by water below interacting with the magma. Even though this says 'video unavailable' you can still click on it to watch.

It was so spectacular last night! Isak will be out this evening but currently it's a bit too windy, so we'll see whether he can fly later. He says this weekend should be good, though.

Also a map showing the current areas of lava, seems to be avoiding the power plant, I hope so!

https://www.vedur.is/media/uncategorized/hraunbreidan23082024.png

I read something that said the lava was flowing in a 'favourable' direction.

On the news they said Grindavik residents have had to evacuate again. I'm amazed any moved back.

I can understand some Grindavik residents moving back, it is their home and where their businesses are, but tourists staying at the Blue Lagoon? You wouldn't get me bathing in a thermal spring so close to an active volcano.

Yeah it's a strange way to live, having to evacuate every few months. I don't know what their circumstances are, whether they have little choice, just stubborn, or don't think it's such a big deal.

It is a fishing port, so I'm guessing a fair few of the residents are involved in that industry.

Another phreatic reaction taking place, if you look at the Vogar livecam. Isak going to try to fly today in around half an hour or so.

I honestly can't believe they chose to open again 48 hours later. Utter madness.

That is shocking.

A lot of tourism in Iceland is more focused on profit than safety or responsibility (of course there are a lot of excellent operators as well). You know the attitudes that led to all the banks collapsing? I'd say there's definitely a little of that in the air, make as much money as possible while the going is good.

There are also often fewer rules in Iceland. I think because everything's so small and familiar people are much less formal in a lot of ways, including bureaucracy and health and safety etc. There aren't the same kinds of rigid regulations about things, it's very flexible and 'ah it'll all be OK'. Which has upsides and downsides.

But it's probably fairly safe to go to the BL, you just might have to run out and evacuate if the wind changes, which would not be very relaxing but I suppose some people like that sort of thing.

I've been reading about the incident of the tourists in the ice caves today I think it will completely change this tbh.

1 dead, 2 seriously injured and 2 missing.

It was an organised tour group of 25 people going into a glacial ice cave.

The thing is, Ive just been reading up on this because I've done one of those tours and wanted to check if it was the one we did (it wasn't).

It turns out at least one operator only runs the tour between October and April because the ice is unstable and constantly moving and can be dangerous.

Therefore the rather obvious question is why was there a group there in August?

That suggests a massive liability issue. If it turns out there are Americans in the group, I would put a fair bet on a massive legal battle incoming which is liable to affect the way tours operate and insurance costs in Iceland.

I would imagine it will have knock on effects which may well affect the Blue Lagoon...

Yes, that (ongoing) tragedy was very much in my mind.

It's not like these are the first tourists to die in Iceland, a few die every year it seems. But usually everyone can say oh they were being stupid (walking up a mountain with an incoming storm warning, playing with the waves at Reynisfjara, getting too close to the edge of a waterfall in icy conditions, etc etc).

This one, well how stupid were they being? All they did was trust that tourism companies weren't going to take them into a seriously dangerous situation. Though I think we should all know it's always a risk to go inside or onto a glacier.

But I still don't think it will affect the BL!

I went to the Blue Lagoon last summer. And while I now accept that it's a bit of a con, I'd wanted to go for years and years, so I'm glad I went while I had the chance!

Even October to April is controversial. There have been a lot of arguments about it, many experts said anything outside December to March was not sensible, ditto creating ice caves that had not formed naturally. But it all goes on.

Reading what I have today I have to say I'd be nervous about going in October.

We went in late February and that was interesting - they nearly cancelled the tour because of adverse weather forecast. We didn't go on the coach and instead drove up ourselves and it was hairy in places on the way back with the snowfall. We left as soon as we get back to base but some of the others on the tour decided to stop for food first which we thought was crazy.

It was a brilliant experience but yes the trust issue is paramount here. These weren't people doing something obviously dumb and against the signs etc.

I hope they find the two missing people but I don't hold out much hope at this stage.

Turns out there were no missing people. The tour company didn't properly record how many people were there or all their names so a 200 people rescue operation putting the SAR volunteers in serious danger was conducted for no reason.

Unfuckingbelievable I know.

Sorry for veering off topic here but to bring it slightly back, I wonder if the BL knows properly exactly who and how many are on the premises at any given time? I doubt it, although maybe it doesn't matter so much in that scenario as it would be easier to check if the evacuation was complete.

Jesus wept that's horrendous.

That company is so screwed. And rightly so. Seems like it was a couple of Americans who were 'sad about no ice cave tours in summer so decided to pioneer them'.

The dead man is an American and it seems there was only one other injured party - his wife.

I see the national park has already banned more tours and is in talks with government on tightening the rules.

And yes I agree about how on earth would they manage a rapid evacuation from the Blue Lagoon. First of all you have to ensure everyone is out of the water, then you have to herd a bunch of tourists off the premises potentially without having time to get changed and grab possessions. What could possibly go wrong there?

I think that there's going to be some big questions asked of the industry.

What a mess.

Fucking hell. I know we deride the UK's health and safety culture but it sounds like they could really learn a bit from us.

We have had plenty of outdoor adventure tragedies. Most of which have been entirely preventable and against the rules we have.