Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

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Oh did they get zapped, I read it last night and didn’t have the energy to engage.

That is good to know. It would help me to talk about it to people who are also sympathetic but probably like me, keeping it a secret in a world that does not generally care for issues outside of day-to-day concerns.

Same here. Saw VeloRome last night but too tired to report. Ducks did not report either. So not sure who reported. Anyone?

I imagine it was a mass deletion, not necessarily because of this thread. Saw that poster all over another thread, supposedly weighing in on one side of the Israel-Palestine conflict, but actually coming across as gleeful about the whole thing.

What the fuck is wrong with folk, whichever way you fall on the Israel-Gaza conflict the loss of life on both sides is horrific. How can anyone be gleeful about innocent people losing their lives horrifically.

Watching the UFC in Saudi (DH’s choice!) and it still amazes me that they continue to let the Russians compete under their own flag. Currently Khamzat Chimaev, best pals with Ramzan Kadyrov 😡😡

Exactly. Everyone sincere is profoundly distressed, regardless of whether they are making a strong argument in one or another direction. So that account really stood out.

The UFC gives zero effs about anything that isn't the bottom line. They have a lot of Dagestani fighters and have been getting into the Russian market due to that. Until last Feb ago, nobody thought that was a bad thing.

There are some interesting links between MMA sports and extremist behaviours.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-19-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian sources continued to discuss larger-than-usual Ukrainian ground operations on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on October 19, and Ukrainian forces likely maintain a limited presence in some east bank areas near the Dnipro River shoreline and the Antonivsky railway bridge.
• Satellite imagery published on October 18 suggests that the Ukrainian ATACMS strike on the Luhansk City airfield likely damaged several helicopters on October 17.
• Ukrainian officials reported on October 19 that Ukrainian forces have downed five Russian fixed wing aircraft within the past 10 days in Donetsk Oblast amid high Russian ground vehicle losses near Avdiivka.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued counteroffensive operations on October 19.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui in Pyongyang, North Korea on October 19, likely part of an ongoing Russian effort to procure additional munitions from North Korea.
• A Russian milblogger observed that Ukrainian forces are successfully and asymmetrically attriting Russian reserves in ongoing offensive operations.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reportedly continues efforts to push remnants of the Wagner Group out of Syria.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, around Avdiivka, south of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• A Russian federal subject is attempting to compensate for labor shortages in its defense sector by spearheading an initiative to allow some minors to work in hazardous conditions.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Military: Russian forces engaging https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-forces-engaging-in-complex-aerial-warfare-in-south/ in 'complex' aerial warfare in south. The Russian military is using a range of weapons including ground-based missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, and guided aerial bombs to attack areas both on the front lines and further away.

⚡️ Military: Russian forces use new tactics, remote-controlled vehicles https://kyivindependent.com/military-russian-forces-use-new-tactics-remote-controlled-vehicles-in-avdiivka/ in Avdiivka.
Russian troops are reportedly adapting their tactics by digging tunnels to launch assaults from closer to Ukrainian positions and using unmanned ground vehicles, Anton Kotsukon, the 110th Separate Mechanized brigade's spokesperson, said on air on Oct. 21.

⚡️ Biden: Israel, Ukraine’s success vital to US https://kyivindependent.com/biden-israel-ukraines-success-vital-to-us-national-security/ national security.

⚡️PM Shmyhal: Ukraine has spent https://kyivindependent.com/pm-shmyhal-ukraine-spent/ over $27 billion on defense this year.

⚡️ Umerov holds call with LLoyd Austin over ATACMS delivery https://kyivindependent.com/umerov-holds-call-with-austin-over-atacms/ "This is having a major impact on the battlefield," Umerov said.

⚡️ Economy Minister: Russia has committed 2,500 crimes against the environment https://kyivindependent.com/economy-minister-russia-has-committed-2-500-crimes-against-the-environment/ Each day of war causes an estimated 120 million euros ($127 million) in damages per day, Svyrydenko said.

⚡️ Zelensky calls Erdogan, discusses peace formula https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-calls-erdogan-discusses-peace-formula-grain-corridor/

[Slight revision of previous very worrying - and still worrying- claim] ⚡️Customs Service: A third of humanitarian aid https://kyivindependent.com/https-kyivindependent-com-ukrainian-government-discovers-theft-of-foreign-aid/ allegedly sent to military units 'disappeared.’
Editor's note: A previous version of this article incorrectly said that one-third of foreign aid to Ukraine didn't reach the military units.
Around a third of the humanitarian aid for the Ukrainian military did not reach the 200 or so military units for which it was allegedly intended after clearing customs, the State Customs Service has said https://customs.gov.ua/en/news/novini-20/post/derzhmitsluzhba-u-vzaiemodiyi-z-minoboroni-viiavili-ponad-3-tis-vipadkiv-neotrimannia-gumanitarnoyi-dopomogi-viiskovimi-chastinami-1338**

⚡️UEFA fines https://kyivindependent.com/uefa-fines-lithuania-for-anti-putin-football-chant/ Lithuania for anti-Putin football chant.

⚡️Update: 16 wounded in Russian missile attack https://kyivindependent.com/update-16-wounded-in-russian-missile-attack-on-post-office-in-kharkiv-oblast/ on post office in Kharkiv Oblast.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - OCT 22
■ Engagements remain at high level,strikes below 7-day average
■ Troop losses well above 7-day average
■ 12 MLRS destroyed in the last 7 days
■ Oryx: 11622net change - largestaddition since Oct 18, 2022

980 dead
19 APVs
18 tanks
15 artillery

UK Army Royal Engineers military trains Ukrainian specialists in the energy, water, transport, and academic sectors to protect critical infrastructure from Russian attacks. https://kyivindependent.com/british-army-royal-engineers-lead-training-program-with-ukrainian-specialists-to-protect-critical-infrastructure-from-attacks/

UNITED24 Media Telegram

The losses of Russian artillery in Zaporizhzhia were reported to be five times higher than Ukrainian losses. The Ukrainian army, facing a stalled offensive, has refocused its efforts on countering Russian artillery, which had been impeding the advance of infantry and mechanized formations, according to The Wall Street Journal. Utilizing more accurate and effective Western artillery systems equipped with radar, alongside reconnaissance drones, the Armed Forces have succeeded in significantly diminishing Russia's firepower advantage.

Ukraine has successfully tested the "Latvian grain corridor", — the head of the financial committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Hetmatsiv
The new grain corridor makes it possible to transport Ukrainian grain to the ports of the Baltic countries by rail. Hetmantsev reported that a test train with Ukrainian grain — 54 containers with 1,423 tons of rapeseed — had already been unloaded in the port of Riga.
It took 17 days to deliver the grain, which in Latvia is evaluated as "a successful operation".

A Russian oligarch reportedly claimed that he had become the clandestine owner of the entire Forbes media group, as per The Washington Post. Magomed Musaev informed his associates in June that he was the purchaser of Forbes and that he had sealed a monumental deal. According to records, Musaev repeatedly asserted this claim. The publication notes that in a video they've reviewed, he refers to businessman Austin Russell as the 'public face' of the deal and insists on keeping his own involvement discreet. However, Russell, in a statement to The Post, refuted any involvement of Musaev or Russian individuals in the transaction.

The Ukrainian military received a batch of the newest Canadian-made Senator MRAP armored vehicles.
The MRAP has improved anti-mine protection, which provides additional advantages for the military in various combat missions. The machine was developed taking into account the experience of using the "Senator" in the Armed Forces of Ukraine during a full-scale war.

The Russians have started making unmanned drones using engines from AliExpress, but they are also dangerous, Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said

Ukrainian fencer Olga Kharlan won gold at a tournament in Türkiye

Three more Ukrainian children have been successfully repatriated, as highlighted by Ombudsman Lubinets. This achievement was possible through collaboration with the BF Orphans Feeding Foundation, specifically with co-founder Mariam Lambert. The involvement of NGO Heroiam Slava (Jaanika Merilo) and BF "Posmishka UA" is also greatly appreciated.

The occupiers began to dig underground tunnels in the direction of Avdiivka, — the spokesman of the 110th Separate Mechanical Brigade
They do this for camouflage and for surprise attacks from underground.

Live: Ukraine Telegram
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Yandex becomes more popular in the EU due to antitrust actions against Google
Yandex's rise in popularity began after the EU antitrust ruling forced Google to offer phone users a choice of competing Internet search applications on Android phones.
Yandex appears on the 'choice screen', which allows Android smartphone users to choose their preferred search engine, in 23 European countries. It was recently ranked among the top five Android apps in Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic and Denmark, among others," Bloomberg reported

A Russian missile strikes the terminal of Nova Poshta (New Post - ed), causing casualties. So far, 13 people have been reported injured.
The head of the Kharkiv Regional Military Administration reports that 6 people were killed as a result of the attack on the terminal.
Nova Poshta reported that the terminal workers did not have time to run for cover because "the siren sounded a second before the impact."

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Air Force: Ukrainian pilots undergoing training nearly ready to fly F-16s https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-spokesman-ukrainian-pilots-nearly-ready-to-fly-f-16s-in-training-program/ The first group of Ukrainian pilots are almost ready to move from F-16 flight simulators to combat planes, Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said in a televised address on Oct. 22, Ukrinform reported.

⚡️Explosions reported https://kyivindependent.com/reports-of-explosions-in-sevastpol/ in Russian-occupied Crimea. [Yesterday apparently the Kerch Bridge was closed again; I get the impression it's being targeted semi-regularly]

⚡️Ambassador: 337 Ukrainians request evacuation https://kyivindependent.com/ambassador-337-ukrainians-sign-up-for-evacuation-from-gaza/ from Gaza.

⚡️Reuters: Iran to host https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-iran-to-host-armenia-azerbaijan-peace-process-talks-amid-middle-east-tensions/ Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process talks amid Middle East tensions.

⚡️Energy giant DTEK imports https://kyivindependent.com/energy-giant-dtek-imports-almost-40-000-metric-tons-of-coal-from-poland/ almost 40,000 metric tons of coal from Poland.
DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, has imported over 38,000 metric tons of coal from Poland, Ildar Saleyev, the company's general director, said on Oct. 20.
The company plans to import 210,000 metric tons of coal for the winter to ensure the stable operation of its thermal power plants

⚡️Bild: German defense ministry concerned https://kyivindependent.com/bild-german-defense-ministry-concerned-about-insufficient-funds/about insufficient funds for Ukraine in 2024.
The German government has not yet budgeted enough funds to be able to deliver enough military aid to Ukraine in 2024, German media outlet Bild reported on Oct. 22, citing a confidential Defense Ministry memo.
The Defense Ministry is concerned that the 2024 draft budget leaves only 120 million euros ($127.2 million) for new military support to Ukraine next year once existing commitments are subtracted.

⚡️DTEK: Russian strikes damage https://kyivindependent.com/dtek-russian-strikes-damage-thermal-power-plant/ thermal power plant.
Russian forces attacked a thermal power plant operated by Ukraine’s largest private energy company DTEK in the evening of Oct. 22, causing significant damage, the company said on Oct. 23.

⚡️Zelensky thanks https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-thanks-emir-of-qatar-for-helping-return-deported-children-from-russia/ Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani for helping return deported children from Russia.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - OCT 22
■ Engagements remain at high level,strikes below 7-day average
■ Troop losses well above 7-day average
■ 12 MLRS destroyed in the last 7 days
■ Oryx: 116Ru 22Ukr net change - largest addition since Oct 18, 2022

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The United States has confirmed that it will transfer artillery shells, initially promised to Ukraine, to Israel, as reported by The New York Times, citing a Pentagon representative. The reasoning behind this decision is that both countries require such ammunition despite differences in the nature of their conflicts.
This redistribution of artillery shells may indicate some limitations in the U.S.'s capacity to meet the ammunition needs of both Ukraine and Israel. According to Axios, the Pentagon intends to transfer tens of thousands of 155-mm artillery shells to Israel, with the suggestion that this reallocation will not have an immediate impact on Ukraine's ability to defend its territories.

Germany's budget falls short by 5 billion euros to fully assist Ukraine, as reported by Bild. The publication explains that military support for Ukraine is funded from the 'general financial management' budget, with the German Ministry of Finance allocating 4 billion euros for Ukraine in 2024.
Out of this amount, 3.1 billion euros are earmarked for previously promised assistance measures, while 770 million euros are reserved for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and its aid initiatives. Consequently, only 120 million euros remain for new military projects in 2024.

The Financial Times reports that the EU is contemplating the possibility of raising gas price caps to avert a potential winter crisis. The EU's concerns stem from lower energy prices and record-high gas storage volumes, which may not be sufficient in the face of ongoing events in the Middle East and instances of sabotage, such as the damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea.
At present, the European Commission has 'not observed any adverse effects' from the imposition of restrictions in February 2023, and gas prices are nearly 90% lower compared to the previous year, according to a presentation reviewed by journalists.
The presentation also suggests extending legislation that allowed EU member states to expedite the issuance of permits for the construction of wind and solar power plants. [and yet, the energy companies made record profits last year]

Russia and Iran have reached an agreement to eliminate customs duties on imported goods starting from March 2024, as confirmed by Kambiz Mirkazemi, a member of the Russian-Iranian Chamber of Commerce. Mirkazemi stated that Iran will soon transition to conducting settlements in national currencies with Russia, Belarus, and Armenia, and 'will fully open its borders to imports from these nations.

After attacks on US bases in the Middle East, the Pentagon will strengthen air defenses there by deploying THAAD batteries and additional Patriot systems.
In a week, drones and missiles attacked American military bases in Iraq four times.

@DancesWithDucks

After attacks on US bases in the Middle East, the Pentagon will strengthen air defenses there by deploying THAAD batteries and additional Patriot systems.
In a week, drones and missiles attacked American military bases in Iraq four times.

IMHO those attacks, plus the missile intercepts made by the USN near Yemen on missiles/UAVs, possibly heading for Israel, don't really seem to be getting much traction in a lot of the MSM...

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/10/19/politics/us-navy-intercept-missiles-yemen/index.html

Wonder if the US is trying to keep them quiet. There are a lot of questions about escalation floating around ... and the US doesn't want a war.

Live: Ukraine Telegram highlights

Nothing worth mentioning that I can see today!

Some depressing news in the round up today Ducks. It does seem like the Middle East situation is going to negatively impact Ukraine in many different ways.

I don't think US officialdom was quiet about it, and from what I can see it was reasonably well covered in the US (Washington Post and other outlets), not so much so this side of the pond...

If I was cynical 🤐 I'd suspect it suits some to keep the argumnents debate on Gaza-Israel at a binary and simplistic level.

It starts to rather complicate things if there's mention that there's regional power behind one of the local participants that really does have an interest in continually stirring the pot, both in that conflict and the one in Ukraine.

It was covered extensively over here. A WSJ editorial suggested that the U.S. showed weakness by not attacking the launch site. Good shooting on the part of the USS Carney. A lateral intercept like that is not the primary scenario they train for. I suspect they only picked it up once it reached cruising altitude and don't have exact launch coordinates.

@notimagain, so you know if there's any AWACS or Sentry coverage in theater at the moment?

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-22-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces are funneling additional forces to the Avdiivka front despite ongoing challenges with frontal mechanized assaults and the failure of a renewed push on October 19-20.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 22.
• Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on October 22.
• The nationalist pro-war Russian information space is reckoning with the possibility of a major demographic decline by weaponizing anti-migrant rhetoric.
• A prominent Russian milblogger and frontline commander criticized Russian top-down censorship campaigns.
• Deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's ideological and rhetorical campaign against the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has largely become decoupled from the issue of the Wagner Group and appears to have outlived Prigozhin himself.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on October 22.
• Russian authorities are intensifying mobilization efforts targeting Central Asian migrant communities.
• Russian occupation authorities continue to use cultural and education programs to forcibly Russify Ukrainian children.

I’m afraid I agree with you 😥

@MissConductUS

so you know if there's any AWACS or Sentry coverage in theater at the moment?

I'm afraid I've been neglecting to check on a regular basis, but from the odd peeks I've had at that part of the world on the tracking sites I'd say they are certainly not obviously as active as they were a year to eighteen monts ago.

Of course one possibility is they could have changed their mode/area of ops to avoid having to be visible to civilian ATC as often as they were previously and so maybe they are there but perhaps are simply less visible.

(That's a long winded way of saying "don't know...")