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Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

981 replies

MagicFox · 26/09/2023 20:14

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

**
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398
mids2019 · 17/10/2023 07:01

@Igotjelly

Its global backlighting with Palestinians and Israelis being pawns in an exercise in deflection. I hope Biden. I hope Biden maintains global support in the forthcoming weeks and what I really hope is that Putin cannot use anti Israeli pro Paelstine sentiment in western nations to undermine support for the US and its general foreign policy. We basically don't need America to become the bad guy here when we all know there is still a very real and present threat in Ukraine.

Coughingdodger · 17/10/2023 09:38

I admire the calm persistence on this thread.

Greenshake · 17/10/2023 10:01

I can post up a really good article about the role of the US in all this - apologies for the screen grabs but I am embarrassed to say I don’t know how to share links.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Greenshake · 17/10/2023 10:01

No 2

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Greenshake · 17/10/2023 10:02

No 3

Sensitive content
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Greenshake · 17/10/2023 10:02

And no 4

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Positivethought · 17/10/2023 10:24

Thanks Greenshake. Good, thought provoking article. I wonder why would the world expect the US (and her taxpayers)to keep stepping up when other countries don’t pay their dues.

DdraigGoch · 17/10/2023 10:36

I doubt that the UN will pose a problem, it's an ineffectual talking shop which seldom achieves anything.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/10/2023 10:53

United 24 Media

🔘 The week-long LIVEX air-to-air landing exercises involving 19 European Union countries began in Spain. These are the first non-NATO-led military exercises in the history of the EU.

The head of the EU Military Committee, Robert Briger, said that the LIVEX scenario would play out an intervention in the third country "Seglia", which is asking for EU help, because the situation there is "rapidly deteriorating" due to the activities of a violent extremist organization

🔘 NATO has begun annual exercises to defend its territory with nuclear weapons, dpa news agency reports.

Exercise Steadfast Noon will continue until Thursday, October 26, in the skies over Italy, Croatia and several other Mediterranean countries. They will involve 13 countries and involve up to 60 aircraft, including B-52 bombers.

Alliance Secretary General Stoltenberg said that military weapons would not be used.

🔘 Recent reports suggest that North Korea has established regular ammunition supplies to Russia. Experts from the British Royal Institute of Defense Research (RUSI) conducted satellite image analysis of the Russian base in Fokino (Primorsky Krai) and the North Korean port of Rason. Since August, they have documented the flights of Russian dry cargo ships "Angara" and "Maria," linked to entities involved in military logistics.

These ships have transported several hundred containers, concealing their geolocation during transit. Notably, these containers subsequently arrived at an ammunition warehouse in Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai, located approximately 200 kilometers from the Ukraine border. Satellite images have revealed a significant expansion of the warehouse.

These findings are also corroborated by the investigative journalists at Dossier, who report that one shipment aboard the "Angara" contained 50 tons of rockets with explosive charges, indicating that the Russian Federation received missiles from North Korea.

Last week, the U.S. accused North Korea of supplying ammunition and military equipment to Russia, specifically mentioning the warehouse in Tikhoretsk. Satellite images from Planet Labs show the loading of the "Angara" in Rason and the expansion of the warehouse in Tikhoretsk, providing further visual evidence of these activities.

🔘 Ukraine has received its first armored ambulance, part of an order for 13 armored medical vehicles based on the Gurkha armored car (4x4) manufactured by the Canadian company Terradyne Armored Vehicles.

These vehicles meet NATO ballistic standards, specifically STANAG 4569 level II, ensuring a high level of protection. Notably, they feature "run-flat" tires, allowing them to continue driving even when deflated, with speed variations from 50 to 150 km depending on the vehicle's weight and road quality. This capability is vital in real-world combat situations where a punctured tire would otherwise leave the vehicle stranded.

Additionally, these all-wheel-drive vehicles can navigate through rugged terrain and war-damaged roads.

🔘 ❗️Kovalenko: ammunition famine in the Russian army in Ukraine is turning into an ammunition crisis

In the fourth quarter of 2023, for the first time in the full-scale war, the number of rounds fired by Ukrainian artillery exceeded those fired by occupying Russian forces.

This shift indicates that the Russian army is experiencing a transition from an ammunition shortage to an ammunition crisis. This situation arises not only due to depleting stocks in warehouses and storage facilities but also as a consequence of various factors. It's becoming evident that the Russian military-industrial complex will be unable to meet the ammunition demands of its forces. This predicament is exacerbated by the fact that a prolonged war is not in Russia's interests.

At the outset of the invasion of Ukraine in February and March 2022, Russian artillery could afford to fire 60,000, 70,000, or even 80,000 rounds per day. However, by July-August of the same year, this number had decreased to a range of 40,000 to 50,000 rounds per day. During the offensive in Bakhmut, the rate further dropped to a limited 20,000-25,000 shots per day throughout the entire combat zone, with over 50% of this firepower concentrated in the vicinity of the fortress city.

🔘 Latvia closed two checkpoints on the border with the Russian Federation — "Vientuli" and "Pededze". At these border crossings, concrete barriers have been installed, — Delfi

🔘 President Zelenskyy met with the US special representative for the economic recovery of Ukraine, Penny Pritzker. They discussed the protection of the energy infrastructure, the need for reconstruction, macro-financial support, and the fair use of frozen Russian assets —

"We are interested in attracting private American investments to long-term projects in the agricultural sector, machine building, and chemical production, and in the participation of American companies in the reconstruction of the Ukrainian energy system," the president said.

🔘 The Ukrainian Armed Forces "shot down" an enemy Su-25 for the third time in a week, — General Tarnavskyi.

This time again, the Defense Forces in the Donetsk region distinguished themselves.

🔘 In India, payment for at least seven shipments of Russian oil delivered to local oil refineries was delayed, Reuters reports, citing sources.

According to the agency's interlocutors, the Indian authorities are unhappy with the payment in yuan instead of rupees.

🔘 The Russian military shelled a residential area and a transport enterprise in Kherson, as a result of which four people were injured, the head of the Regional Military Administration Prokudin said

🔘 🎬 American actress Sarah Jessica Parker will produce the Front Row documentary film about Ukrainian ballet dancers. The movie will tell about the life of a group of Ukrainian dancers in exile as part of the United Ukrainian Ballet troupe. The documentary will be shot by the 2024.

🔘 Russian dictator Putin arrived in Beijing by plane to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and participate in the Belt and Road Forum.

According to the plan, negotiations with Xi will be held on October 18 in two stages: in an expanded composition and in a narrow one, in the format of a working breakfast. The Kremlin did not rule out that Putin and Xi will talk face-to-face as part of the negotiations "on the most sensitive topics"

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/10/2023 11:05

Live: Ukraine

🔘 Last week, Volodymyr Zelensky planned a visit to Israel as a sign of solidarity, but the Israeli side refused to accept him because it was "not the right time."

The Ynet publication, citing sources, writes that Zelensky wanted to come along with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has already visited the country twice in the past week.

🔘 Commercial structures in the Kursk region, whose equipment is being forcibly taken away for the construction of defense structures, are demanding monetary compensation from the regional authorities for the destroyed excavators.

🔘 Defense forces in Donetsk region shoot down third Su-25 attack aircraft in a week, - General Tarnavsky.

🔘 ❗️❗️Russia attacked the Kherson region with five SU aircraft and dropped nine guided bombs on four settlements.

Information about the victims is being established.

🔘 The families of Russian mobilized soldiers from Tartarstan appeal to the Russian government to save their sons, fathers and husbands from being used as assault troops in Ukraine, where they are currently suffering "tremendous losses".

🔘 Johan "Swede" Fredriksson, volunteer soldier in the Ukrainian Army - on October 10th, 2023, he was killed in action, while reinforcing Ukrainian positions and assaulting from cover - on the Avdiivka front in the Donetsk Oblast on the Eastern Front.

🔘 At night, the Ukrainian Armed Forces struck at Russian helicopters and equipment at airfields near occupied Berdiansk and Luhansk. Propaganda channels whine about significant losses in manpower and equipment after strikes on Berdiansk and Luhansk airfields. [1st photo]

🔘 🇷🇺🇨🇳 The Russian President has arrived in Beijing on an official visit. He will take part in the international forum "One Belt, One Road," to which Xi Jinping invited leaders from 130 countries.

Putin is expected to stay in China for two days. He is scheduled to meet with the leaders of China, Vietnam, Mongolia, Laos, and others.

🔘 Consequences of the night attack on Odesa region by Iranian drones. [2nd Photo]

🔘 The US will allocate almost $700 million to modernize Ukrainian ports, railways and checkpoints, - Ukraine's Infrastructure Minister.

🔘 💥 Russians have been shelling Kherson since morning. There are hits in a residential area and on the territory of a transport company. Preliminary, five people were wounded - one of them was hospitalized.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
blueshoes · 17/10/2023 11:18

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-16-2023

Key Takeaways:

  • Russia likely deployed elements of at least two Central Military District (CMD) brigades to reinforce offensive operations by Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) forces on the Avdiivka front.
  • Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 16.
  • A new Russian procedure restricting the border checkpoints that Ukrainians can use to enter Russia from third countries came into force on October 16, effectively only allowing Ukrainians to enter Russia from third countries through the Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow.
  • A group of Russian lawyers appears to be challenging the Kremlin’s precariously crafted veneer of legality surrounding the Russian judicial system, calling for a strike three days after Russian authorities arrested four lawyers on extremism charges. [brave lawyers]
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in the Bakhmut direction, near Avdiivka, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
  • The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reported further details on ongoing North Korean weapons shipments to Russia on October 16.
  • Senior Russian officials reiterated boilerplate narratives about the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the Israel-Hamas war during a Russian Security Council meeting on October 16 likely to deter Western support for Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
blueshoes · 17/10/2023 11:41

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Russia admits most of its drones come from China. (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-most-of-its-drones-come-from-china/)

⚡️ Media: Israel refuses Zelensky’s visit (https://kyivindependent.com/media-israel-refuses-zelenskys-visit-says-time-not-right/), says 'time not right.' The president was, however, told that the visit might be possible at a later date, the news outlet said.

Hundreds of Ukrainians trapped in besieged Gaza: 'We are constantly bombed' (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-trapped-in-besieged-gaza-we-are-constantly-bombed/) Ukraine is now working to evacuate 243 Ukrainian citizens from Gaza, which has plunged into a "humanitarian catastrophe," Ukraine's Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lubinets said on national television on Oct. 14.

🇪🇺(https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-the-geopolitics-of-eu-enlargement/)
“While the European Union already granted Ukraine candidate status in June 2022, the European Council is expected to vote on beginning formal accession talks on Dec. 15. But the debate in Spain shows that the question is no longer really about Ukraine and the western Balkans; it is now an existential question with far-reaching implications for the EU and its role in a fast-changing global environment,” writes Mark Leonard, a director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, in his recent op-ed.

⚡️Energy Ministry denies (https://kyivindependent.com/energy-ministry-denies-introducing-scheduled-blackouts/) introducing scheduled blackouts, a practice widely used last winter during Russia’s campaign of mass strikes against the country’s energy system. In its Oct. 16 Telegram report, the ministry said that power cuts are not planned anywhere in Ukraine as the current level of electricity production is sufficient for the population.

⚡️ Media: Liberian-flagged oil tanker hits mine in Black Sea, sustains minor damage.(https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1713946748878471228)

⚡️Zelensky and U.S. Special Representative for Economic Recovery in Ukraine PennyPritzker meet in Kyiv (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-pritzker-meet-in-kyiv-discuss-recovery-of-ukraines-energy-system/), discuss recovery of Ukraine's energy system, attracting private investment for reconstruction projects, and use frozen Russian assets as a significant source of funds for the country's recovery.

Who are the Crimean Tatars? (https://kyivindependent.com/who-are-the-crimean-tatars/) While much of their history remains undiscovered around the globe, including inside Ukraine, Crimean Tatars continue fighting for their freedom within independent Ukraine through activism and by taking up arms against Russia in the full-scale war. Who are the Crimean Tatars?

⚡️ Georgia's Constitutional Court authorizes impeachment procedure (https://kyivindependent.com/georgias-constitutional-court-approves-impeachment-procedure-against-president/) against president.

⚡️German minister: US financial aid 'indispensable' (https://kyivindependent.com/german-finance-minister-us-financial-aid-indispensable-for-ukraine/) for Ukraine. His statement comes as the U.S. assistance for Kyiv is facing opposition in Congress from a hardline faction of the Republican Party.

⚡️ Poland's centrist Third Way bloc rules out coalition talks (https://kyivindependent.com/polands-third-way-bloc-rules-out-coalition-talks-with-ruling-law-and-justice/) with Law and Justice party.

⚡️ Russia drops 9 aerial bombs (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-9-aerial-bombs-against-kherson-oblast/) on Kherson Oblast's Beryslav district. Five Russian Sukhoi attack planes carried out an attack against four settlements in Kherson Oblast's Beryslav district on Oct. 16, dropping nine guided aerial bombs, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin reported.

⚡️ Russian theologian, known church critic Andrei Kuraev leaves Russia for Czechia. (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-priest-kremlin-critic-andrey-kuraev-moves-to-czechia/) Kuraev wrote on his Telegram channel that his "Moscow world was destroyed" as it is becoming increasingly difficult to "write, speak, and lecture" in Russia, while in Europe, his public events and lectures are still possible.

⚡️ Ukraine implicates 20 Russian FSB officers in crackdown on EuroMaidan Revolution. (https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-implicates-20-russian-fsb-officers-in-suppression-of-euromaidan-revolution/)

⚡️ Putin calls Netanyahu (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-calls-with-netanyahu-in-first-conversation-since-hamas-attack/) for the first time since Hamas attack.

⚡️ Slovakia's pro-Russian SMER party to lead foreign affairs, defense in new government. (https://kyivindependent.com/slovakias-pro-russian-smer-party-to-lead-foreign-affairs-defense-in-new-government/). Robert Fico's SMER (Direction), which won the highest percentage of votes (22.9%), is reportedly going to head defense, transport, finance, foreign affairs, justice, and agriculture departments, and Fico is to become the next prime minister.

Ex-Estonian president: If NATO ambiguous about conditions for Ukraine, Russia won’t know what to prevent (https://kyivindependent.com/ex-estonian-president-ukraine-doesnt-need-any-military-roadmap-to-join-nato/)

⚡️Russia strikes Kharkiv Oblast (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-kharkiv-oblast-with-missiles/) with missiles launched from Russia's town of Valuyki, located in Belgorod Oblast some 15 kilometers north of the Russia–Ukraine border.

⚡️Previously reported as missing, Navalny's attorney announces his departure from Russia (https://kyivindependent.com/previously-reported-as-missing-navalnys-attorney-announces-his-departure-from-russia/).  An attorney representing Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny, Alexander Fedulov, whom Navalny associates reported being unable to contact on Monday afternoon, has said on Instagram that he has left Russia.

⚡️Euractiv: EU budget discussions delay release of $21 billion (https://kyivindependent.com/euractiv-eu-budget-discussions-delay-release-of-21-billion-ukraine-war-fund/) Ukraine war fund.

⚡️Zelensky, Trudeau discuss (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-trudeau-discuss-evacuation-of-ukrainians-from-gaza/) evacuation of Ukrainians from Gaza.

⚡️3 drones shot down (https://kyivindependent.com/3-drones-shot-down-over-belgorod-oblast-governor-says/) over Belgorod Oblast, governor says.

⚡️Zelensky holds call (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-holds-call-with-finnish-president/) with Finnish president Sauli Niinisto. They discussed the "Grain from Ukraine" initiative and the president's peace formula.

⚡️ISW: Russian forces make marginal gains (https://kyivindependent.com/isw-russian-forces-make-marginal-gains-near-avdiivka/) near Avdiivka. Citing geolocated footage, the ISW reported that Russian troops advanced three kilometers south of Avdiivka. However, reports from the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces indicate that Russian troops launched fewer overall attacks in the area than in previous days.

⚡️Putin arrives (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-arrives-in-china/) in China. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin arrived in China on Oct. 17 and is set to hold talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Oct. 18, Reuters reported. This marks Putin's second trip abroad since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for his arrest over his role in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children. On Oct. 12, Putin visited Kyrgyzstan to meet with Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov.

⚡Polish opposition wins (https://kyivindependent.com/polish-electoral-commission-counts-99-9-of-votes-pis-loses-majority/) elections, according to final count.

The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party won 35.4%, followed by the centrist Civic Coalition at 30.68%, the center-right Third Way at 14.41%, the New Left at 8.6%, and far-right Confederation at 7.16%. The opposition is therefore expected to build a coalition government, as they will hold the majority of the seats.

⚡️Orban meets (https://kyivindependent.com/orban-meets-xi-in-beijing/) Xi in Beijing, attends Belt and Road Forum. Orban is the only EU leader to attend China's two-day Belt and Road Forum, which starts on Oct. 17. Russian leader Vladimir Putin will also be in attendance.

⚡Ukrainian forces strike (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-russian-military-airfield/)Russian airfields in occupied territories. The strikes hit "helicopters and airfield equipment of the Russian occupying forces," near Berdiansk, in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, and Luhansk, the Armed Forces reported.

⚡️Official: Russian attacks on Kherson injure 4 (https://kyivindependent.com/official-russian-attacks-on-kherson-injure-4/).

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/10/2023 13:20

MrTiddlesTheCat · 16/10/2023 22:01

I have a Ukrainian necklace that I wear to school each day. One of my classmates is a secret Putin apologist and I know it really annoys her, but she can't say anything without outing herself. It my very small act of 'fuck you'.

Well done @MrTiddlesTheCat and other posters. I think I may have to invest in a Ukrainian flag pin to show my support more visibly now people seem to have moved on.
Agree with Greenshake and Md76 - Madonna has massively gone up in my estimation following her appearance with a giant Ukrainian flag.

MissConductUS · 17/10/2023 16:29

It's been ages since I shared an article from the WSJ, so here's one about the problems Russia is having trying to take the initiative around Avdiivka. They're repeating the tactics they used at Vuhledar, with similar results. I read somewhere yesterday that their operational tempo in the area has slowed considerably, so they may be culminating in this area.

Russia Goes on the Offensive in Ukraine—and Suffers Heavy Losses - Moscow’s assault on Avdiivka shows how hard it is for either side to move front line

Updated Oct. 17, 2023 12:05 am ET

KYIV, Ukraine—With Ukraine’s monthslong southern counteroffensive making slow progress, Russia last week launched a large-scale assault of its own with a narrower aim: the small eastern city of Avdiivka.

By most accounts, it didn’t go well.

Ukraine’s military said it destroyed dozens of Russian tanks and other armored vehicles and killed hundreds of Russian troops while losing little territory. Video released by Ukrainian officials showed the damage, with artillery and bomblets dropped from drones crashing into one Russian vehicle after another, leaving them smoking on the road.

The assault may mark an inflection point in the conflict. Moscow is trying to retake the offensive, confident that Ukraine doesn’t have the capacity for a breakthrough in the south, said Konrad Muzyka, director of Rochan Consulting, a war analysis firm with a focus on Ukraine.

But in the 20th month of the war, it isn’t clear that either side is able to significantly move the front line, which hasn’t shifted much in nearly a year.
“Ukraine had the initiative during the summer,” Muzyka said. “Now, the initiative is slowly shifting. It will most likely be the Russians on the offensive.”

The heavy Russian losses stand as a testament to how difficult both sides have found it to make progress this year against enemies who are heavily dug in behind dense minefields covered by artillery.

Since the start of the summer, Kyiv has thrown thousands of troops toward the Russian lines in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, hoping to cut through to the Sea of Azov and sever supply lines to Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Initially, Ukrainian troops pushed forward in armored columns of their own, using tanks and other Western armored vehicles, which newly formed brigades trained on during the spring.

After losing some of those vehicles in June, however, Ukrainian forces reset, and instead began advancing on foot in smaller groups. Using this strategy, the Ukrainians managed to pierce the main line of Russian defenses in August, but have struggled since then to expand that gap into a major breach that would allow them to advance further south.

In deploying so many resources around Avdiivka, Moscow appears to have calculated that its troops have withstood the Ukrainian threat in the south and that additional manpower—which had previously been held in reserve—can be deployed in an offensive.

The small industrial city of Avdiivka has been a top Russian target for nearly a decade, since Moscow covertly sent its military to install separatist rulers in Ukraine’s east. Located just a few miles outside the Russian-occupied regional capital of Donetsk, Kyiv’s hold on Avdiivka allows Ukrainian forces to threaten logistics and transportation hubs in the region.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion in February last year, Russian forces had closed in on Avdiivka on three sides and flattened much of it with artillery and airstrikes. Yet, they had been unable to take—or encircle—the city itself, where Ukraine has built up fortifications since the initial conflict.

Then last week, several Russian battalions launched an assault on Avdiivka from several directions in columns of armored vehicles supported by air power and artillery, according to Ukrainian military officials.

They have seized several Ukrainian positions on the outskirts of Avdiivka, but are still far from what appears to be their aim of cutting the city off. Their progress has slowed after the initial push, and they have lost at least three dozen armored vehicles, according to open-source intelligence analysts, who comb through battlefield videos and satellite images to gauge and verify changes at the front.

The advance on Avdiivka marked the first time the Russians have employed large armored columns since February when Ukraine wiped out a Russian column advancing into the village of Vuhledar.

Col. Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskiy, a Ukrainian military spokesman, said the Russian assault on Avdiivka was every bit as disastrous as the one in February. The Russians lost 2,000 troops—with 800 killed—last Tuesday, the first day of the assault, he said, while Ukrainian drones and artillery took out dozens of tanks and other armored vehicles. Russian assaults around Avdiivka have also decreased since early last week, he said, but added that the Russians maintained air superiority in the area.

“The enemy is using regular army units, most likely the units that were pulled up as reserves,” Dmytrashkivskiy said.

The Russian Ministry of Defense didn’t respond to a request for comment about the assault on Avdiivka.

Last week, Vasily Nebenzya, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was finished and Russia was now on the offensive. But when asked about Avdiivka on Sunday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his forces were conducting “active defense” along the whole front line.

“Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka,” the Institute of the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, wrote on Sunday. “Russian forces are unlikely to make significant breakthroughs or cut off Ukrainian forces in the settlement in the near term, and potential advances at scale would likely require a significant and protracted commitment of personnel and materiel.”

Russia Goes on the Offensive in Ukraine—and Suffers Heavy Losses

Moscow’s assault on Avdiivka shows how hard it is for either side to move the front line.

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-goes-on-the-offense-in-ukraineand-suffers-heavy-losses-fd73202a?mod=hp_lead_pos1

MissConductUS · 17/10/2023 18:18

ATACMS has entered the chat. This is going to have a massive effect on the Russians. Everything (command posts, air assets, fuel and ammo storage, etc.) must be pulled further back from the front lines. Lots of damage will be done before the Russians can get their thumbs out to do this.

Ukraine Fires ATACMS Missiles at Russian Forces for the First Time - U.S. missiles were secretly deployed to Ukraine in recent days

Updated Oct. 17, 2023 10:14 am ET

Ukraine launched ATACMS missiles at Russian forces on Tuesday, marking the first time that the U.S.-provided weapons have been used in the conflict in Ukraine.

A small number of the missiles have been secretly sent to Ukraine in recent days, where they will augment Kyiv’s capability to carry out long-range strikes at Russian forces during an important stage of its counteroffensive, according to people familiar with the matter.

Ukraine has long sought ATACMS, a surface-to-surface missile that can strike well behind Russian lines and that can be fired by the Himars, or High Mobility Artillery Rocket System launchers, the U.S. has provided the country.

On Tuesday, the Ukrainian military’s communication department said on the Telegram messaging app that it “made well-aimed strikes on enemy airfields and helicopters near the temporarily occupied Luhansk and Berdyansk.”

The ATACMS models that were provided have a range of about 100 miles.

The U.S. decision to send the ATACMS, which stands for the Army Tactical Missile System, has been long in the making. Ukraine repeatedly said the missiles were essential to its war plan, giving it the range it needed to strike targets behind the front lines in Russian-held Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces said the attacks caused dozens of Russian casualties and destroyed nine Russian helicopters, an air defense launcher and an ammunition depot. It said the military struck the two airfields after receiving intelligence that Russia was using them as a major base for aircraft, military hardware and ammunition in the occupied territories.

Ukraine hasn’t officially confirmed the use of ATACMS. But in a speech posted to social media on Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hinted at the use of the new weapons provided to Ukraine.

“I thank those who are destroying at scale the logistics and bases of the occupiers of our land. We have results,” he said. “I thank certain partners of ours: effective weapons, just as we agreed.”

Yuriy Ihnat, the spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Force, said that long-range strikes against Russian air bases are a crucial part of Ukraine’s broader strategy of weakening Russian forces as Ukraine continues its counteroffensive.

Russian helicopters have menaced Kyiv’s forces that are trying to push forward in parts of the south and east, operating from a distance that makes them unreachable for most of the air defenses.

Ihnat said longer-range strikes against Russian air bases will force the Russian military to keep its choppers further from the front, easing the pressure on Ukrainian troops. As a result, Russian helicopters would need to fly further to reach the front lines, which would diminish their ability to apply firepower and give Ukrainian forces more time to track those flights.

WSJ News Exclusive | Ukraine Fires ATACMS Missiles at Russian Forces for the First Time

The U.S. missiles have been secretly sent to Ukraine in recent days. The move marked the first time that the U.S-provided weapons have been used in the conflict.

https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/ukraine-fires-atacms-missile-at-russian-forces-for-the-first-time-3bebcdb1

DdraigGoch · 17/10/2023 19:42

Sounds like ATACMS will be a game-changer. If this had been available at the start of the year the map would look a lot different now.

blueshoes · 17/10/2023 21:15

@MissConductUS appreciate the uplifting news on ATACMS and lack of Russian success at Avdiivka.

Been a dispiriting week understandably for Ukraine supporters.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/10/2023 21:16

That's great news MissConduct

DrBlackbird · 17/10/2023 23:20

Glad to have a bit of positive news for Ukraine given the concerns piling up. What’s your views on the latest suggested speaker @MissConductUS ?

MissConductUS · 18/10/2023 00:11

DrBlackbird · 17/10/2023 23:20

Glad to have a bit of positive news for Ukraine given the concerns piling up. What’s your views on the latest suggested speaker @MissConductUS ?

He is very far right, but someone more moderate wouldn't get the support of the nutters/wreckers who have thrown a spanner in the works. He has agreed to support military aid for Ukraine and link it to aid for Israel, so it could be worse.

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4260581-mccaul-jordan-israel-ukraine-aid/

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas)

GOP chairman: Jordan committed to linking Israel and Ukraine aid

House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) said Tuesday that Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) committed to linking Israel and Ukraine aid packages as he seeks to shore up support for his Speak…

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4260581-mccaul-jordan-israel-ukraine-aid

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 18/10/2023 09:33

United 24 Media

🔘 The Russian military shelled a residential area and a transport enterprise in Kherson, as a result of which four people were injured, the head of the Regional Military Administration Prokudin said

🔘 Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili has declared her intent not to resign, despite the Constitutional Court's decision that deemed her visits to European countries "illegal," as reported by "Echo of the Caucasus."

Zurabishvili expressed her concerns over the impact on Georgia's European future and democracy. She criticized the lack of balance between the branches of government and emphasized that a country without such balance cannot be considered truly democratic.

She also noted that she is uninterested in which version of Salome Zurabishvili was preferred by others. Her focus lies in determining where she can be more beneficial to her country, whether as a free politician or as a president extending her mandate. She expressed her commitment to Georgia's European path and her willingness to be present at the vote on her impeachment. The upcoming events will ultimately shape the nation's trajectory.

🔘 During the night, the enemy carried out an attack on a residential building in Sloviansk, resulting in the destruction of a five-story dormitory building, as reported by the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Initial reports indicate that two individuals may be trapped beneath the rubble.

Rescue operations are currently underway, with the involvement of rescuers from the Donetsk region and a consolidated unit of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine.

This attack follows an earlier incident in which terrorists targeted the dormitory of Luhansk Agrarian University, as revealed by Vadym Lyakh, the head of the Sloviansk City Military Administration.

🔘 The White House officially confirmed the provision of ATACMS to Ukraine, the transferred modification has a range of 165 km.

🔘 ❗️In recent days, the USA has secretly transferred ATACMS to Ukraine — the Armed Forces have struck airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk, WSJ reports.

The publication does not disclose other details, but specifies that the ATACMS modification, which Ukraine received, has a range of up to 160 kilometers.

🔘 ⚡️Operation "DRAGONFLY" conducted by the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine has proven successful with the striking of airfields in Berdyansk and Luhansk.

The Special Operations Forces obtained intelligence regarding the enemy's use of airfields in the temporarily occupied Berdyansk and Luhansk regions, where significant amounts of aviation, special equipment, and ammunition were located.

This intelligence was verified and confirmed, and the necessary coordinates and data were shared with the Defense Forces. A fire strike was executed on the night of October 16-17, resulting in substantial losses for the occupiers.

The destruction in Berdyansk and Luhansk includes:

▫️Nine helicopters of various modifications
▫️Special equipment stationed at the airfields
▫️An anti-aircraft missile launcher
▫️An ammunition warehouse
▫️Damage to the airfield runways

An ammunition depot in Berdyansk detonated before 4 am, and the detonation in Luhansk persisted until 11 am.

The enemy sustained significant losses in terms of personnel, with dozens reported dead and wounded, while recovery efforts are ongoing.

🔘 ⚡️The European Parliament supported 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine

It is planned that Kyiv will receive these funds within 4 years in the form of grants and loans.

The document, among other things, contains a strong recommendation to use frozen Russian assets for the recovery of Ukraine, as well as by integrating them into the Aid Fund in the form of grants.

🔘 Russian President Putin held talks with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Beijing.

Orbán discussed with Putin Hungarian-Russian cooperation in the field of gas and oil supply, as well as nuclear energy.

The leader of the Hungarian government also emphasized the importance of peace during the meeting. He said it was vital for the entire continent, including Hungary, that the flow of refugees, sanctions and hostilities end.

🔘 Lithuania will repair Leopard tanks damaged in Ukraine, — Ministry of Defense of the country.

🔘 Armenia is ready to be closer to the EU as much as the EU considers it possible, said Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan.

He added that Yerevan expects continued cooperation with the EU in the areas of reforming the police, rescue service, independent judiciary, reforming education and public administration.

🔘 Ukraine has received all 31 promised Abrams tanks from the United States, as confirmed by Martin O'Donnell, the representative of the US Army in Europe, as reported by the media.

🔘 All Ukrainian military personnel who trained on Abrams tanks in Germany have also returned to Ukraine, a representative of the US Army said.

🔘 Ukraine's national football team secured a 3-1 victory against Malta during the Euro-2024 qualification match.

🔘 ❗️ At night, the Russians hit a residential building in Zaporizhzhia with a missile. There are killed and wounded.

As a result of enemy shelling, the entrance of the residential building from the 5th to the 3rd floor was destroyed.

Professional services evacuated about 50 residents of the building.

Search and rescue operations are ongoing.

🔘 In the village of Hroza, Kharkiv region, the identification of the dead was completed. Bodies and their fragments continue to be handed over to relatives — relatives and friends of the deceased took 49 out of 59 bodies.

🔘 The Russians hit Dnipro with missiles in the morning. One person was killed and three more people were injured.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 18/10/2023 09:51

Live: Ukraine

🔘 Occupiers attacked a dormitory in the center of Sloviansk
There may be people under the rubble.

🔘 🔥 Special operations forces confirmed the attack on airfields in Berdiansk and Luhansk. The operation was called DRAGONFLY.

Nine helicopters of various modifications, special equipment, an air defense launcher, and an ammunition depot were destroyed. The runways of the airfields were also damaged.

🔘 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban met with Putin in Beijing.
They discussed cooperation in gas, oil, and nuclear energy. They both emphasized the importance of maintaining the relationship. Orban specifically said that it was "very important" that the refugee flow, sanctions, and fighting stop.

🔘 Russian channels and military officials are spreading photos of a cluster munition allegedly found at the site of the strike on the airfield in Berdiansk. It is very similar to the M74 cluster munition, which is used in ATACMS Block I (M39) and Block IA (M39A1) missiles with a range of 300 km.

Earlier, Western media reported that the Joe Biden Administration had decided to transfer a small number of ATACMS cluster missiles to Ukraine, but would not publicly announce the transfer.

Today, after the Commander-in-Chief's meeting, President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke about "effective weapons" from partners that "destroy the logistics and bases of the occupiers," but did not specify what he meant.

🔘 🇱🇹 Lithuania will repair the damaged Ukrainian Leopard tanks, the country's Defense Ministry has announced.

The ministry reminded that it has already repaired Ukrainian self-propelled howitzers PzH2000 and trained the technical staff of the Armed Forces to do it independently.

🔘 🔴Air alert declared in most regions of Ukraine due to threat of ballistic missile attack

The last air alert in Kyiv was sounded on October 2.*
*
🔘 Russian military correspondents have published another batch of photos of the wreckage of the missile that attacked the Berdiansk airfield. [Photo 2]

This is still an MGM-140A ATACMS Block 1. Markings are clearly visible on the missile body.

🔘 🇷🇸 Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic says he had a "short conversation" with Putin in Beijing. According to him, the Russian president looks "full of confidence"

🔘 🇺🇸 The United States has already handed over the promised 31 M1A1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine, along with spare parts and ammunition, said Martin O'Donnell, spokesman for the U.S. Army's Europe and Africa Command.

According to him, all Ukrainians who trained on tanks with American troops in Germany have also returned to Ukraine.

🔘 ❗️At night, Russians launched 6 missile attacks on Zaporizhzhia, hitting a multi-story building.
Secretary of the City Council Kurtev said that two people were killed and four injured in the terrorist attack, and three more are missing.

🔘 ❗️❗️Explosions were heard in Dnipro, before that there were reports of Iskander launches in Crimea.

❗️❗️The head of the President's Office clarified that the attack was on the village of Obukhivka, which borders Dnipro.
The Interior Minister said that a 31-year-old woman was killed in Obukhivka. Four people were wounded. Eight houses were destroyed.

🔘 The red area is not yet available [Photo 1]

🔘 During the war, Zelensky visited 24 countries, most often in Poland - 4 times
[Photo 3]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
MissConductUS · 18/10/2023 15:57

The White House officially confirmed the provision of ATACMS to Ukraine, the transferred modification has a range of 165 km.

It's been reported that they used the M39 variant, which has inertial guidance instead of sat nav. That's fine for large targets like airfields. The cluster munitions spread out over a fairly wide area. Ukraine may also receive other, more modern variants, including those carrying a unitary explosive warhead.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-atacms-russian-airfield-strikes-attack-enemy-helicopters-2023-10

Ukraine says it struck Russian airfields, taking out enemy helicopters, and it looks like it did it with ATACMS it secretly got from the US

Multiple reports and a source familiar with the matter say Kyiv used ATACMS cluster missiles to carry out the attack.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-atacms-russian-airfield-strikes-attack-enemy-helicopters-2023-10

blueshoes · 18/10/2023 18:53

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-17-2023

Lots of ATACMS chatter

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukraine used US-provided ATACMS long-range missiles to strike Russian targets in occupied Ukraine for the first time on October 17.
  • The Ukrainian ATACMS strikes on operationally significant Russian airfields in Ukraine will likely prompt the Russian command to disperse aviation assets and withdraw some aircraft to airfields further from the frontline.
  • The Russian military has consistently shown it can adapt to new Ukrainian strike capabilities — but only after suffering initial and pronounced losses from Ukrainian capabilities Russian commanders realistically should have prepared for.
  • The arrival of ATACMS long-range missiles also presents a significant threat to Russian ammunition depots in rear areas and will likely force the Russian command to choose between fortifying existing depots or further dispersing depots throughout occupied Ukraine.
  • The Russian information space expressed widespread fear over the use of ATACMS, and Russian concerns over the possibility of future strikes will likely impact Russian decision-making beyond the current Ukrainian ability to sustain regular ATACMS strikes.
  • Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) reportedly issued an informal warning to a prominent Russian milblogger who is often critical of the Ministry of Defense’s conduct of the war on October 16 for discrediting the Russian military.
  • Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast, and advanced in certain areas of the front.
  • Russia continues to take steps to codify the inclusion of volunteer formations within Rosgvardia.
  • The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) continues efforts to consolidate control of orthodox diocese in occupied areas of Ukraine.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin held bilateral negotiations with Hungarian President Viktor Orban and Mongolian President Ukhnaagiin Khurelsukh in Beijing on October 17.
**
Ukraine Invasion: Part 45
notimagain · 18/10/2023 19:09

The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) reportedly issued an informal warning to a prominent Russian milblogger ....

I wonder if it was informal as in: "you see that window........" or perhaps something more along the lines of "drink up, it really is just a cup of tea..."

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