Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

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Well one woman got arrested in Brighton for supporting a proscribed organisation. I don't suppose that there were any arrests of the ones brandishing pictures of gliders in London. Anti-semitism is just as bad as it always was, the pogrom we saw a week ago is another in a long line, among which were the ones in Russian-controlled Odessa.

I really do think it is important that Putin as afar as possible does not cynically use the Israel war as a propaganda coup. The upcoming invasion of Gaza will inevitably lead to civilian death and hardship and it looks like Russia is setting itself up to personify hypocrisy by denouncing these deaths and supporting the Palestinian people.

I think unfortunately one consequence of impossibly prolonged invasion is that we may have a rise of Islamic extremism and possibly terrorism which will cause an alternate front for the what's attention. Even now the love reporting from the MSM has pivoted to Gaza and the civilian we are now seeing being wounded and killed are Paletinian not Ukrainian. With Ukraine being steadfast with Israel because of their joint connection with the US I am at least worried about the global optics of this.

Are Russia trying to Has light large portions of the population by making the global community forget the war crimes committed early on in the war by using Gazan casualties to mask them in our collective memory?

the possible

@DesdamonasHandkerchief I'm off now, thanks a lot for taking it over today. Ill be back tomorrow assuming we have wi-fi, which I'm sure we will even in the depths of the Land of Ice and Fire.

I still don't understand why they built an active volcano next to the airport, but hopefully it won't go off.

Russia asks UN Security Council to vote Monday on Israel, Gaza
Reuters
6 hours ago

Russia cynically is asking for a UN vote on Monday on the Gaza war.

Why? .simply to divide the world and show the US does not have universal support in its steadfast approach to Israel and to again divert from Ukraine. If there is a divisive debate and the IUN as a whole votes to urge trestraint in Gaza it will be the US in the minority group.

For a Russian ambassador to stand up at the U.N and urge an end to Israel's actions to prevent civilian deaths would be has lighting on a global scale. I wish there was a mechanism to prevent Russia raising this issue for the vote (possibly a vote needs to happen but not at Russia's bequest)

It feels.like events have led to the US and the West more generally being lead into a propaganda trap and it is really frustrating.

Iran's threats are not unnoticed and the at least military co operation between Iran and Russia aren't either. Russia spies opportunity in the middle East and with its historical expertise about spreading misinformation this is especially worrying.

I think the main stream media have a duty to keep Ukriane in the headlines and I do question whether dwarfing Ukraine coverage by coverage of the middle East while understandable really does let Russia off the hook in terms of continued scrutiny and global opprobrium.

If there is a vote in the U.N. I think Ukraine should abstain. Why? Even though of course Ukraine is horrified by the actions of Hamas (as we all are) a vote supporting Israel will be juxtaposed against the civilian desperation and deaths in Gaza which can only increase. Russia will portray Ukraine as aiding with 'war crime' commiting Israel and at least in the Muslim world possibly lose some moral llegitmacy.

The West needs to use all their diplomatic efforts to prevent Russia maximising ithe middle.east propaganda opportunity and confuse to work globally to secure support for Ukraine. The media in my opinion have a role in this as well.

gas

Here goes!

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 15 October 2023.

Given that Israel has been restrained (at best) in its support to Ukraine, Zelensky's words and solidarity are magnanimous and, I hope, draws attention to the existential fight Ukraine is undergoing and the need for support.

ISW Key Takeaways:
*
RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, OCTOBER 14, 2023*
Oct 14, 2023 - ISW Press

• US and Ukrainian officials reported on October 12 and 13 that they anticipated the Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expressed confidence in Ukrainian defenses.
• The Russian information space remains divided on the prospects of Russian successes near Avdiivka and on current Ukrainian capabilities.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine on October 14 and advanced west of Donetsk City.
• The Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) will maintain some vessels at its main Sevastopol naval base amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian vessels, as the Russian Navy’s main dry dock on the Black Sea is in Sevastopol.
• Armenia ratified the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) Rome Statute on October 14, obliging Armenia to arrest Russian President Vladimir Putin if he enters Armenia due to the ICC’s outstanding arrest warrant, directly after Putin’s efforts on October 13 to claim that the Russia-Armenia relationship is not deteriorating.
• Ukrainian forces will reportedly begin training on F-16 fighter jets in the US next week.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
• Relatives of Russian mobilized men and recruited prisoners continue to complain that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Russian military command are mistreating troops on the frontlines – especially on the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
• Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to establish patronage programs between Russian federal subjects and occupied areas in order to integrate occupied territories into Russia.

Kiev Independent

⚡Economy Ministry planss* to reduce gender pay gap.

The Economy Ministry announced on Oct. 14 that it plans to reduce Ukraine's gender pay gap from 18.6% to 13.6% by 2030.

⚡UK Defense Ministry: Russia's Black Sea Fleet doubles downn* on defense.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has doubled down on defensive and reactive measures since suffering setbacks in recent months, the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote on Oct. 14.

⚡Minister: Finland considers legislation limiting Russians from certain real estate deals.

Finland is considering several security-related legislative initiatives, including limiting Russians from certain real estate deals, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen told newspaper Helsingin Sanomat on Oct. 14.

⚡Ambassador: At least 260 Ukrainian citizens to be evacuatedd* from Israel in 'coming days.'

"Two hundred eight are leaving today, 52 tomorrow. And we will schedule the next flight for October 18. These are all tickets purchased through the embassy," Yevhen Korniichuk, Ukraine's ambassador to Israel, told news outlet ZN.ua on Oct. 14.

⚡️ Russia, China and North Korea have new dynamics. And it’s bad for Ukraine

The news of military cooperation between North Korea and Russia confirms that we have entered a new era of Russia-North Korea relations.

But it also poses a new question: What happens next for Moscow, Pyongyang, and the silent Beijing?

Read the full story here.

kyivindependent.com/north-korea-likely-sends-ammo-to-russia-what-does-it-change/

⚡️ We are proud to announce that Artur Korniienko, a reporter at the Kyiv Independent, currently on a leave to serve in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, received the Golden Cross distinction on Oct. 12.

This award is usually presented to soldiers for successful combat operations, as well as to those who, in the absence of an officer, assume command of a combat unit's operations.

Artur voluntarily joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces at the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion. He now serves with the Syny Hromu aerial reconnaissance group at the 252nd Separate Assault Battalion of the Territorial Defense.

We congratulate Artur with this distinction and thank him for defending us all.

⚡Russian shelling kills 1 in Beryslav, Kherson Oblast.

Russian forces shelled Beryslav in Kherson Oblast, killing a woman, regional governor Oleksandr Prokudin wrote on Oct. 14.

The 42-year-old woman was on the balcony of her apartment at the time of the strikes and died on the spot from her injuries.
It was the second time on Oct. 14 that Russian strikes killed civilians in Beryslav. Earlier in the day, a 60-year-old woman was killed in her home after Russian forces hit a residential building, likely using guided aerial bombs.

⚡WSJ: Palestinian militant group received fundss* from sanctioned Russian crypto-exchange.

The Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad received part of a $93 million payment through the sanctioned Russian crypto-exchange company Garantex, the Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 13.

The sources used in the reporting alleged that Hamas likely used a similar funding scheme as a means of disguising their transactions and evading sanctions.

⚡Russian strike destroys 5-story apartment building in Avdiivka, 1 possibly under rubble.

A Russian air strike hit a five-story apartment building in the embattled city of Avdiivka, partially collapsing it and possibly burying a 59-year-old man under the rubble on Oct. 13, Ukraine's National Police wrote on Oct. 14.

At the time of this publication, the police said it was impossible to conduct a thorough search of the destroyed building and determine whether the man was under the rubble.

⚡Ombudsman arrives in Egypt to help facilitate evacuation of Ukrainians from Gaza.

Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets flew to Egypt to assist in the process of evacuating Ukrainian citizens from besieged Gaza, according to a Facebook post on Oct. 14.

Lubinets wrote that as of the time of this publication, the situation in Gaza is critical and that 243 Ukrainian citizens, mostly women and children, urgently need to be evacuated.

⚡Zelensky: Almost a third of Ukrainian territory unsafe due to mines and unexploded ordinancee*.

Mines and unexploded ordinance from Russia's war have made almost a third of Ukrainian territory unsafe, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an evening address on Oct. 14.

The issue of demining and clearing of explosive materials was discussed at a two-day conference in the Croatian capital Zagreb on Oct. 11. More than 40 countries and international organizations took part in the conference, and they jointly pledged almost 500 million euros ($530 million) to assist in the effort.

⚡Ombudsman: Israel withdraws permission for foreigners to evacuate from Gaza via Rafah crossing.

Israel's Foreign Ministry revoked their previously granted permission for foreigners to be evacuated from Gaza using the Rafah border crossing into Egypt, Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said on television on Oct. 14.

Lubinets said that Israeli authorities withdrew from the agreement just two hours before the planned evacuation was to begin, saying they could not guarantee the safety of those using the crossing.

⚡Media: Ruling Georgian party did not vote for PACE resolution declaring Russia dictatorship.

Representatives from Georgia's ruling party, Georgian Dream, did not vote for the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) resolution that declared Russia a dictatorship, RFE/RL's Caucasian service reported on Oct. 14.

Members of the Georgian opposition party, Citizens, voted for the resolution, but Georgian Dream representative Irakli Chikovani said that he had more pressing business than the vote.

⚡️Explosions reported in Zaporizhzhia.

Several explosions were heard in the city of Zaporizhzhia overnight on Oct. 15. Governor Yurii Malashko urged residents to seek shelter.

Air Force earlier warned about the treat of missile attack.

⚡️Russia shells 5 communitiess* in Sumy Oblast.

Russian forces launched multiple attacks against Ukraine's northeastern Sumy Oblast on Oct. 14, attacking five communities and causing 92 explosions, regional military administration reported.

⚡️207 Ukrainians have evacuated from Israel.

The first evacuation flight with 207 Ukrainian citizens on board, including 63 children, has taken off from Israel's Tel Aviv to Bucharest, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleh Nikolenko reported on Oct. 14.

The next flight is scheduled for Oct. 15, according to Nikolenko. The ministry plans to evacuate 155 Ukrainians.

⚡️Russia claims 27 droness* downed overnight.

Russia's Defense Ministry said via its Telegram channel that its forces shot down 27 Ukrainian drones overnight on Oct. 15 over the Belgorod and Kursk regions.

Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of the Belgorod Oblast, reported that a drone was downed over the village of Novaya Derevnya resulting in damage to private property. No casualties have been reported.

⚡️ISW: Russian information space dividedd* on prospects of Russian successes near Avdiivka.

Geolocated footage from Oct. 13 and 14 reveals that Russian forces are making minor advancements both to the north and south of Avdiivka, the Institute for the Study of War said in their latest assessment.

In recent days, several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian defensive fortifications are proving to be a significant challenge for Russian advances in the Avdiivka area. They also pointed out that issues with medical support are hindering Russian progress in the region.

⚡️Governor: Russian airstrike kills 2 in Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces launched a guided bomb against the village of Druzheliubivka in the Izium community, killing two civilians and injuring another one, Kharkiv Oblast Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported on Oct. 15.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia constructs railway line to Mariupol to ease logistics in southern front.

Russia is constructing a new railway line to occupied Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, reducing travel times for supplies to the Zaporizhzhia front lines, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its intelligence report on Oct. 15.

⚡️Official: Partial blackout in Kherson as Russia struck critical infrastructure.

Russian forces struck critical infrastructure in Kherson with two guided bombs, causing a partial blackout and running water supply interruptions, Roman Mrochko, the head of the Kherson city military administration, reported in a series of Telegram posts on Oct. 15.

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Oct. 15, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

United 24

⚫️ An 11-year-old boy was killed, his mother and six-year-old brother were injured as a result of a Russian attack on the village of Bahatyr, in Donetsk region, —National Police.

The National Police reported that the killed boy had turned 11 just two days ago. A 31-year-old mother and her youngest son were hospitalized with multiple injuries.

Russia attacked the village with the "Smerch" anti-aircraft missile system. Nine arrivals in the residential sector were recorded. 20 private houses, a church, a school, civilian cars and the power grid were damaged.

🔘 Top Russian diplomat Nikolai Kobrinets was found dead in an Istanbul hotel.

⚫️ Russia wants to occupy all of Donetsk region by the end of the year, — the head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration

The Russian occupiers set a new date for entering the administrative borders of Donetsk region — December 31.

"They understand: if you take the height of Avdiivka, then it will be easier for them to reach Pokrovsk, and so on. That's why Avdiivka is extremely important for them," noted Vitaliy Barabash.

⚽️ The national team of Ukraine defeated North Macedonia with a score of 2:0 in the match in the selection for Euro-2024

🔘 The occupiers left ships in Sevastopol, which they are not afraid to lose. The rest were taken from Novorossiysk, Feodosia and Kerch, said Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesman for the Navy of Ukraine.

"The troops of the Russian Federation are deploying ships to other ports, except for the temporarily occupied Sevastopol. This is Novorossiysk, where there is a fairly large naval base, Feodosia and even Kerch," Pletenchuk said.

However, the ports lack piers to accommodate the entire Black Sea Fleet.

"And as a result, they sent some units, which they are not so sorry for, back to Sevastopol. These are Serna boats and several tugboats," he added.

⚫️ Ukrainian ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets arrived in Egypt to agree on the fastest possible evacuation of Ukrainians from the Gaza Strip. Currently, 243 Ukrainians are blocked there. Most are women and children.

The only functioning Rafah checkpoint on the border with Egypt is still closed. Negotiations on the passage of foreigners are ongoing.

🔘 The expansion of the war in the Middle East could lead to a recession in the world economy, which is still recovering from the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Bloomberg Economics.

If direct conflict between Israel and Iran cannot be avoided, oil prices could soar to $150 a barrel, global growth could fall to 1.7%, and global output could drop by about $1 trillion.

"The conflict in the Middle East will shake the whole world, because this region is the most important supplier of energy carriers and a key sea route," the article says.

Analysts consider three possible scenarios of the development of events and their consequences.

In all cases, the consequences will be higher oil prices, higher inflation and slower economic growth.
However, the global consequences will depend on how far the war spreads.

The first scenario: hostilities are limited to the Gaza Strip and Israel

This year, Iran increased oil production by 700,000 barrels/day amid improving relations with the United States.
If these barrels "disappear" under US pressure, oil prices will rise by $3-4.

The impact on the world economy in such a scenario would be minimal, especially if Saudi Arabia and the UAE compensate for the losses.

The second scenario: the conflict spreads to Lebanon and Syria, where powerful armed groups supported by Iran operate.

Under such a scenario, analysts predict a 10% jump in oil prices, production losses of about $300 billion and a slowdown in growth rates to 2.4% next year.

The third scenario: direct conflict between Iran and Israel

This scenario could trigger a global recession.
Repeated strikes on Saudi Aramco facilities by Iranian proxies, as in 2019, are not excluded.

And the production capacities of Saudi Arabia and the UAE may not save the situation if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil supplies pass every day.

At the same time, analysts predict a drop in global growth to 1.7% in 2024. And world inflation may reach 6.7% next year.

⚫️ The Russian Federation launched an offensive in the Makiivka region and in the Kupiansk direction, — the commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The main goal of the occupiers is the defeat of the grouping of our troops, the encirclement of Kupiansk and the exit to the border of the Oskil River.

In two months, the enemy recovered and began to attack the positions of the Ukrainian military, engaged assault groups with the support of armored vehicles.

🔘 Remember, we told you about some explosions near Melitopol? So here are some details.
t.me/United24media/14465

⚫️ A sea mine was carried into the coastal waters of Odesa

It was discovered at a distance of about a kilometer from the shore.

A unit of specialists of the Southern Defense Forces carried out a controlled detonation. The mine was destroyed.

🇯🇵 Japan will provide remote medical services and smart farming technologies to Ukraine.

❗️ A powerful explosion rang out in Kherson, after which electricity went out in some areas and water supply was interrupted, reports the head of the City Military Administration, Roman Mrochko

*❗️ Russia dropped 13 guided aerial bombs on the Kherson region, energy workers are eliminating the consequences
*
As Oleksandr Tolokonnikov, head of the press service of the Kherson regional military administration, reported, Russian troops attacked four settlements in the Beryslav district of the Kherson region and dropped 11 guided aerial bombs. In the suburbs of Kherson, the Russians dropped two more guided aerial bombs

Live Ukraine Media Telegram

🔘 The White House said that new attempts by Russian occupation forces to advance on Avdiivka in Donbas near the Lyman River were not a surprise

"As was the case during Russia's failed winter offensive last year, it appears that the Russian military is using wave attack tactics, where they throw masses of poorly trained soldiers directly onto the battlefield without proper equipment," said John Kirby.

At the same time, he noted that the Russian occupiers' attempts to advance demonstrate the need for further support for Ukraine from the United States

⚫️ Russians shelled the village of Bahatyr in Donetsk region with Smerch multiple rocket launchers.

The attack killed a boy who celebrated his 11th birthday two days ago, police said.

A 31-year-old mother and her younger son were also injured and hospitalized with multiple wounds.

🔘 The enemy, after suffering losses, recovered in two months and began active offensive actions in the area of Makiivka, and later on the Kupyansk direction... The main goal of the enemy is to defeat the grouping of our troops, surround Kupyansk and reach the Oskil River."

This was reported by the Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky.

According to him, the enemy carries out dozens of attacks every day by assault groups supported by armored vehicles. The enemy is also massively using mortars and artillery to attack the positions of the Ukrainian military.

The commander says that the Armed Forces were prepared for such a development, so "the enemy is suffering significant losses and has not achieved significant success."

⚫️ Russian aviation is methodically destroying Avdiivka. Yesterday it hit a five-story building. There is probably a man under the rubble, but it is impossible to reach him at the moment.

🇦🇲 Today, the President of Armenia signed a decision to ratify the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. The country is now obliged to comply with the court's decisions, including the arrest of Russian President Putin.

🇷🇺 Meanwhile, the Russian dictator says he is ready to visit Armenia and allegedly has an "invitation." He said he spoke on the phone with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

🔘 Russia's Black Sea Fleet is dispersing its ships and withdrawing them from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, Feodosia and Kerch, according to a Ukrainian Navy spokesman. There is even a version of sending some ships to Abkhazia, but this has not yet been confirmed.

This comes after a series of drone attacks on Russian warships.

⚫️ At night, Russian occupiers fired almost 40 shells at Nikopol and Marhanets community in Dnipropetrovs'k region.

A house burned down as a result of the shelling, and 8 others were injured. Power lines, solar panels, and a minibus were also hit. A Russian drone was also shot down over the region.

The Russians attacked the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia three times with S-300 missiles, causing damage to infrastructure and a fire.

🇵🇱 Parliamentary elections have begun in Poland, the outcome of which may determine the country's future course within the EU and in support of Ukraine.

The latest polls show that the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) has more support than any other party, but not enough to gain a mono-majority.

Simultaneously with the parliamentary elections, a referendum is being held on four issues: the sale of state property to foreigners, raising the retirement age, the Polish-Belarusian wall, and the admission of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa.

❗️Russian occupiers launched an air strike on the critical infrastructure of Kherson from a Su-34 fighter-bomber.

Preliminarily, it was two guided bombs. After the explosion, water supply was interrupted in different parts of the city.

❗️In Kherson, power and internet went out, and mobile communication deteriorated. Citizens are asked to stock up on water.

Ukrzaliznytsia reports that the shock wave damaged the vestibules of one of the cars of the Kherson-Kyiv train #102, all passengers are unharmed. The station has switched to backup power.

The occupiers dropped 11 guided bombs on four settlements in the Beryslav district of Kherson region.

@liveukraine_media

Some Twitter 'highlights':

⚫️ Glasnostgone:
Today Putin said Russian forces in #Ukraine are conducting an ‘active defence.’ That "active defence" involves the shooting dead of wounded Russian soldiers with a bullet in the head. This small grim scene is from Russia's ongoing attacks towards the eastern town of Avdiivka. Numerous videos & reports indicate Russia's forces are suffering large numbers of casualties.

[Link includes video (from a distance thankfully) of this event and asserts the wounded Russian soldier was robbed by his 'comrade' after the murder.]
https://x.com/glasnostgone/status/1713500121483067514?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

⚫️ Warmonitor3:
Ukrainian artillery hit and destroyed a large ammunition dump of Russian forces east of Dubovo-Vasylivka
https://x.com/warmonitor3/status/1713507556897747140?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

⚫️ Anton Gerashchenko:
Video from the phones of the Russian military of the so-called "Redut" PMC.

They filmed their way along the territory of Ukraine in detail. Until they were detained by the SSU.
https://x.com/gerashchenkoen/status/1713501628085465438?s=61&t=NaIdJJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

⚫️ Euromaiden Press:
UK Intel: New Russian rail line in occupied Ukraine exposed to Ukrainian attacks
The rail network in occupied 🇺🇦 remains operational but susceptible to disruption from 🇺🇦 artillery, air-launched missiles, and acts of sabotage.
https://x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1713499069434212430?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

⚫️Russian region plunged into darkness after suspected Ukrainian drone strike.
Multiple 🇺🇦 media outlets released a video allegedly showing 🇺🇦 drones targeting an electrical substation in 🇷🇺 Belgorod Oblast.
https://x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1713515239189213542?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

⚫️ European Union leaders will hold technical talks on 17 October on using Russian assets frozen by sanctions to help Ukraine

The meeting will demand “decisive progress”on the issue, which has been halted for months
https://x.com/euromaidanpress/status/1713314108747943949?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

⚫️ United24Media:
❤️‍🔥Madonna graced the stage draped in a Ukrainian flag, proving once again that music has the power to unite us all.

Fans shared videos from Madonna's Celebration tour on social media applauding this heartfelt tribute.
https://x.com/united24media/status/1713483694416027878?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

⚫️ Kyiv Post:
Putin Claims Russian Successes in Avdiivka, Evidence Suggests Otherwise

At least one Russian milblogger appears to have accepted Russia’s attempt to take the town is over, insisting the Kremlin had never promised it would capture it in the first place.
https://x.com/kyivpost/status/1713520472950751256?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

⚫️ Tendar:
A long thread from usually reliable Tendar ref: I would like to make an assessment of the momentarily situation around Avdiivka.
https://x.com/tendar/status/1713520368151941558?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

⚫️ Dmitri@wartranslated
Relatives of the mobilised men from Tatarstan are puzzled as to why the battalion was placed on the zero line in Svatove direction, and not in defence as promised, and is taking "colossal casualties" as a result.
https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1713484829356884433?s=61&t=NaIdJ_hpeHJ7BCXblc3CMg

Thank you @DesdamonasHandkerchief

Thank you @DesdamonasHandkerchief

wow at Madonna’s support 🇺🇦

Thanks for the thanks - I have even more respect for Ducks that she does that round up everyday!

Well done to Madonna. It’s disgraceful how many big names have totally failed to acknowledge or comment on what has happened in Ukraine. Just not good enough.

Im sorry - it's going to be very difficult to do the roundups this week until saturday. Ill try but if anyone else could chip in, that would be really great.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.
• The Russian information space writ large is also metering its initial optimism about the prospects of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka on October 15 but have yet to make further gains amid a likely decreasing tempo of Russian operations in the area.
• Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations at this decreased tempo in the near term, however, and will remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area despite being unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encircle Avdiivka at this time.
• A prominent Russian milblogger and frontline unit commander complained that Russian military leadership is uninterested in battalion level problems, supplementing other Russian milblogger complaints about general problems in the Russian military.
• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 15 and slightly advanced south of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 15 and advanced in some areas.
• A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have “significant” reserves comprised of new divisions currently located in rear areas, though these formations are highly unlikely to be fully staffed at this time.
• The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) is sending a reportedly Kremlin-affiliated priest to Crimea, likely as part of continued Russian efforts to persecute religious communities in occupied Ukraine.

Desdemona and Blue, thank you very much for taking over !!

Hi @DancesWithDucks I PM'd you last night to say blueshoes and I would take over the roundups whilst you were away so no worries on that front, but I didn't want to step on your toes so was waiting for the okay from you.
My roundup may be this afternoon now though as I have stuff on this morning.
Have a lovely relaxing holiday 🇮🇸❄️

Oops cross post!

Thanks to all three of you for the news updates. Really appreciated. I’d offer but ashamed to admit I’m a techno moron.

Thanks from me as well.

Re shooting of wounded combatants, I've seen footage of storming operations where downed enemies are 'shot for control', which looks to you and me like execution.

After all the shooting is finished, wounded are (should be) taken care of according to Geneva Convention. When there are bullets being fired, it's shoot to kill and shoot to be sure they're killed.

War is completely messed up, isn't it?