Ukraine Invasion: Part 44

[MagicFox]

44th thread, all the usual thanks and appreciation

**

--

1. Agreed thread guidance:

1. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

1. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

1. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Live: Ukraine Telegram

[warning: distressing picture at the bottom]

🇵🇱 The Polish Defense Minister has released declassified documents showing a plan for a large-scale retreat of the Polish army across the Vistula River in the event of a Russian invasion. The documents are dated 2011, and the "secret" stamp was removed in 2013, which may indicate a change in defense strategy.
The retreat of Polish armed forces across the Vistula would mean the loss of 40% of the country's territory.

Ukraine's new Defense Minister Rustem Umerov takes part in the Ramstein meeting in Germany for the first time.

🇦🇿The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry has announced the start of an "anti-terrorist operation" in Nagorno-Karabakh. The stated goal is to "restore constitutional order".
The ministry has already reported casualties on the Azerbaijani side. Cars carrying civilians and soldiers exploded on mines in the area of the Ahmedbeyli - Fizuli - Shusha road. Two soldiers were also wounded by mortar fire.
The Ministry of Defense claims that Armenian troops are firing artillery from the positions of the Russian peacekeeping contingent. They are shelling Azerbaijani positions in the Agdam direction.
🇦🇲 The Armenian Defense Ministry denies the shelling and says it is disinformation.
The media reports on the shelling of the capital of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, Stepanakert.

❗️Following Ukraine's filing of a lawsuit in the World Trade Organization (WTO) arbitration, Poland, Hungary and Slovakia will stop participating in the platform's work on Ukrainian grain.

🇧🇬 In Bulgaria, farmers staged a protest against the lifting of the embargo on Ukrainian grain imports. They blocked the main roads of the country.

❗️On September 16, Laguta, the former head of the Kherson region, was found dead near garages in Kyiv's Solomyansky district, while on September 13 his wife reported her husband missing to the police, said Yulia Girdvilis, head of the Kyiv police's communications department.
"A criminal proceeding was opened over the incident under the article "Premeditated murder" with an additional qualification of "suicide".

Ukraine has returned two more children from the temporarily occupied territories. These are two brothers - 13-year-old Kyrylo and 4-year-old Serhiy, wrote Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets.

Roman is 8. He was injured in the Russian missile attack on Vinnytsia in July 2022. 45 % of the body surface is burned. Now he returned to Ukraine after treatment in Germany.

Great Biden speech at the UN. Good to see the Ukrainian delegation there too 🇺🇦

The Polish Defense Minister has released declassified documents showing a plan for a large-scale retreat of the Polish army across the Vistula River in the event of a Russian invasion. The documents are dated 2011, and the "secret" stamp was removed in 2013, which may indicate a change in defense strategy.

Poland would not do this now. That was a Russia that was thought to exist. Poland knows how stoppable Russian forces are (and now spent).

Territorial Defence Force was brought back in 2015.

It's not just about how stoppable the Russians are. The thinking used to be that you would have tripwire forces on the border which you understood would likely be bypassed or pushed back, in anticipation of retaking the territory in a matter of weeks.

What we now know about the Russians is that you cannot under any circumstances leave civilians in territory they have under control, even temporarily. Or you wind up with Bucha or Irpin.

So true and what I am noticing (changing the focus a bit) about the almost 1918 style Western Front Ukrainian advance is how the liberated settlements are just rubble. The retaking of various areas from Bucha, through S E of Kharkiv and North Bank Kherson freed people who had been occupied, and often deeply traumatised, plus uncovered the tortured and the dead. The current grind is something else.

Thos has been on my mind for obvious reasons.

What we now know about the Russians is that you cannot under any circumstances leave civilians in territory they have under control, even temporarily. Or you wind up with Bucha or Irpin.

So true. The horror of Russian occupation. It is a sport to them.

@MMBaranova, I hope your family is staying safe.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-19-2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Russian government quickly signaled on September 19 that Russian peacekeeping forces would not intervene in Azerbaijan’s military operation into Nagorno-Karabakh, despite Russia’s previous security ties to Armenia.
• Russian and Ukrainian sources credited superior Ukrainian combat coordination, more precise artillery fire, and stronger electronic warfare (EW) systems for recent Ukrainian advances south of Bakhmut amid continued discussions of significant Russian losses in the area.
• Russian losses have reportedly significantly increased in western Zaporizhia Oblast in recent days, and the Russian military likely struggles with a lack of available combat effective units that the Russian command is willing to laterally redeploy to this sector of the front.
• Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed-131/-136 drone and ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian rear areas on September 19.
• Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with Iranian Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri in Tehran, Iran on September 19.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not advance on September 19.
• Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on September 19 and advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• A Latvian company has reportedly been exporting chips and microcircuits to Russian defense industrial base (DIB) companies despite international sanctions designed to prevent Russia from importing such components.

yes, what's left of the towns under attack is ... nothing.

I sincerely hope that at some point the Russians will break and retreat a long way, leaving many villages without too much damage.

Kyiv Independent Telgram

❗️The authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh decided to cease fire —24News edition with reference to the information center of the unrecognized republic
The pro-Kremlin publication Sputnik Armenia writes about the complete ceasefire from 13:00 on September 20. The agreement was reached through the mediation of Russian peacekeepers.

Defense Minister Rustem Umierov has revealed the outcomes of today’s meeting in the Ramstein format. During the meeting, participating countries reached a consensus to initiate the formation of a “Coalition of Opportunities” with the primary objective of preparing Ukraine’s Defense Forces for the future.
To achieve this goal, the Ministry of Defense has identified five priority clusters that will require focused attention:
• Air defense
• Artillery
• Aviation
• Navy
• Armored vehicles.

Pentagon Chief Lloyd Austin has confirmed a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy scheduled for September 21.

Meanwhile, clashes between protesters and police have erupted near the Armenian government building in Yerevan. Media reports indicate that protesters have also blocked access to the Russian embassy in Yerevan.

🇱🇹 Lithuania will hand over a new package of military aid to Ukraine. It will include ammunition for the Carl Gustaf anti-tank grenade launcher, detonation systems and maritime surveillance radars. Lithuania will also repair Ukrainian Leopard tanks.

The Norwegian government has announced its intention to provide Ukraine with 50 M548 tracked trucks. The M548 is a tracked vehicle capable of navigating terrain that may be inaccessible to wheeled vehicles.

🇬🇧 Great Britain will provide Ukraine with tens of thousands more artillery shells in 2023, — press release of the country's government
In addition, the United Kingdom will continue to support Ukraine — with air defense, long-range, and also train Ukrainian fighters.

❗️Unknown saboteurs blew up two planes and a helicopter in the Moscow suburbs, — Main Intelligence Directorate

🇺🇸 US President Joe Biden, in his speech at the UN General Assembly, called Russia's concessions against international law for a faster end to the war in Ukraine unacceptable, stressing that it would undermine the international legal order.

💬 “It is clear, Russia’s attempt to weaponize the food shortage on the global market in exchange for the recognition for some, if not all, of the captured territories,”
— Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during his remarks to the United Nations General Assembly.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with the delegations of the Republic of South Africa and Kenya in New York.
The parties discussed Russian aggression against Ukraine and the future strengthening of cooperation.

Estonia will not confiscate vehicles with Russian license plates already present within the country, according to Lauri Läenemets, the Minister of Internal Affairs of the Republic.

On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, during the special event “Fight for the Future: Ukrainian Children at War,” the First Lady of Ukraine, Olena Zelenska, revealed deeply troubling statistics related to the impact of the Russian invasion on Ukrainian children.

An 8-year-old boy, who endured 45% burns as a result of a Russian missile attack last year, has returned to Ukraine.
During the missile strike on the center of Vinnytsia on July 14, 2022, Roman's mother was killed by the Russian missile, and the young boy himself sustained burns covering 45% of his body. Roman was transported to Lviv in critical condition, with doctors unable to provide any guarantees regarding his survival or the feasibility of transporting him abroad. It took several weeks to stabilize the child's condition, but eventually, Roman was transferred to Dresden for treatment.
In Germany, the child underwent multiple surgeries each week, including skin grafts, removal of debris, and excision of dead tissue. A year later, Roman and his father have returned to Ukraine.
While Roman's life is no longer in jeopardy, he must wear a special compression mask to minimize scarring on the burn sites. As he grows, the scars will require further attention to ensure they do not cause pain or restrict mobility.

[all this effort, to save his life. The pain he must have gone through, and still go through. Just one boy, and so many more have been permanently damaged due to Russia. It sometimes seems like Ukraine has dropped almost completely out of peoples' attention and yet the suffering and the cruelty go on and on and on for the people of Ukraine].

M548

That poor boy, the physical injuries themselves are horrific but I can only imagine the trauma he's suffered and will continue to suffer as a result will be equally if not more so.

Dammit that was UNITED24 Media. Sorry!

Now for the real Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️ Shoigu arrives in Tehran for talks with Iran's military leadership.
https://kyivindependent.com/shoigu-arrives-in-tehran-for-talks-with-irans-military-leaders/

⚡️ Media: Ukraine refused 10 Leopard 1 tanks from Germany due to poor condition.
(https://kyivindependent.com/media-ukraine-refused-10-leopard-1-tanks-from-germany-due-to-poor-condition/)Ukraine refused to accept a recent batch of 10 Leopard 1A5 tanks sent by Germany, saying they need repairs that the Ukrainian military is not able to carry out, the German news outlet Spiegel reported on Sept. 19.
Germany reportedly sent experts to Poland to inspect the vehicles. Spiegel said that according to their conclusion, the tanks were badly worn during the training of Ukrainian soldiers on the vehicles in Germany.

⚡️Russia attacks https://kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-ukraine-with-24-drones-overnight-kremenchuk-oil-depot-hit/ Ukraine with 24 drones overnight, oil depot hit in Kremenchuk.

⚡️Police: Death toll of Russian attack on Kupiansk rises to 6 https://kyivindependent.com/police-death-toll-of-russian-attack-on-kupiansk-rises-to-6/
The attack hit the vehicle of volunteers evacuating civilians from the city, Bolvinov said on Facebook. The updated number of victims includes two women and four men.

⚡️ Zelensky criticizes partners over grain disputes.
"It is alarming to see how some of our friends in Europe play with our solidarity in a political theater," President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the U.N. General Assembly as several EU states prolonged import bans on Ukrainian grain.

Ukraine will introduce an embargo on onions, tomatoes, cabbage, and apples from Poland, Polish news outlet Rzeczpospolita reported on Sept. 19. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-introduce-embargo-of-polish-fruits-and-vegetables/

⚡️ Bulgarian minister: Opposition to Ukrainian grain imports incited by Russian propaganda. https://kyivindependent.com/bulgarian-minister-2/

⚡️State Bureau of Investigation opens case https://kyivindependent.com/state-bureau-of-investigation-opens-case-over-alleged-abuse-at-lviv-oblasts-enlistment-office/ over alleged abuse at Lviv Oblast's enlistment office.
Earlier the same day, a video appeared on local Telegram channels showing a man in military uniform beating and threatening a man in civilian clothes in what reportedly was a recruitment office room.

⚡️Media: 48 Ukrainian children taken https://kyivindependent.com/media-48-ukrainian-children-taken-to-belarus/ to Belarus.

⚡️The crew of the cargo ship SEAMA in the Black Sea has been evacuated following an explosion, the Romanian maritime search and rescue organization ARSVOM reported on Sept. 20. CNN reported that the crew believed the ship had hit a mine, but the cause of the explosion has not yet been confirmed by the Romanian authorities. https://kyivindependent.com/romanian-authorities-report-cargo-ship-explosion-in-black-sea-crew-rescued/

⚡️Media: Russian Su-34 jet crashes https://kyivindependent.com/military-jet-crashes-in-russia/ in Voronezh.

⚡️ Zelensky calls for Russia's nuclear disarmament at UN Assembly.
"Terrorists have no right to hold nuclear weapons," the Ukrainian president said in his address to world leaders at the U.N. headquarters in New York.

⚡️ Zelensky warns against 'behind the scenes' deals with Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is aware of attempts at closing "shady" deals with Russia "behind the scenes," warning U.N. leaders against trusting the Kremlin.
"Evil cannot be trusted. Ask (Yevgeny) Prigozhin if one can bet on (Vladimir) Putin's promises."

⚡️Zelensky meets https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-meets-with-un-secretary-general-in-new-york/ with UN Secretary-General in New York.

Ragnar Gudmundsson

WAR IN #UKRAINE - SEP 20
■ More strikes, fewer combat engagements
■ Troop losses slightly above average, equipment well above
■ Double-digit drone, artillery, vehicle & APV losses
■ Oryx: 162added (counteroffensive ratio)

Joni Pyysalo
AT JoniPyysalo

RF estimated losses comparison 1.1.-20.9.2023:
KIA 106720-273980=167k
Tanks 30314635=1,6k
APV 60848868=2,8k
Artilllery 20216096=4k MLRS 423779=356
AA 213526=313
Special equipment 181906=725
Vehicles 47208633=3,9k
Aircraft 283315=32
Helicopters 269316=47 UAV 17924821=3k
Cruise missiles 7221479=757
Warships/boats 1620=4
Submarines 01=1

And he lost his mother, too @Igotjelly. And home. He's had to bear far far more than anyone should, never mind at such a very young age.

Live: Ukraine Telegram

Ukraine and the United States are "in the home stretch" on the supply of long-range ATACMS, - President Zelensky.

🇩🇪🇺🇦 Germany provides Ukraine with another €400 million military package. It includes:
▪️200 armored MRAP vehicles with mine protection;
▪️50 surface drones;
▪️480 missiles with AT2 anti-tank mines for the MARS MLRS;
▪️30 thousand 155-mm shells;
▪️105 thousands of 120-mm shells;
▪️demining systems, etc.
In the photo - Dingo 1 MRAP

The head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Rustem Umerov, summarized the results of the Ramstein meeting.
▪️agreed to launch an initiative to create a Capabilities Coalition;
▪️The Ministry has outlined five priority areas: air defense, artillery, aviation, navy and armored vehicles;
▪️partners reaffirmed their support for Ukraine;
▪️Ukraine, Estonia and Luxembourg have launched an IT coalition within the Ramstein format. Partner countries will support the Defense Forces in the areas of IT, communications, and cybersecurity.

🇵🇱 Polish President Duda defended Warsaw's decision to impose unilateral restrictions on agricultural imports from Ukraine.
He compared Ukraine to a drowning man, explaining that "anyone who has ever participated in the rescue of a drowning man knows that he is incredibly dangerous and can drag himself to the depths."

Poland is likely to cut financial support for Ukrainians who fled Russian aggression against Ukraine, government spokesman Piotr Mueller said.
According to him, support for refugees, which includes waiver of residence and work permit requirements, free access to schools, medical care and family benefits, will not be extended in 2024.

❗️"I warn the Ukrainian authorities that if they escalate this conflict, we will add even more products to the ban on entry into Poland," the Polish Prime Minister told the PAP.

[ Poland has supported Ukraine to the hilt, wtf is Ukraine playing at?!]

😭😭 it actually breaks my heart and he’s just one tiny person in a big war machine. Fuck Russia!

Me too. The suffering is overwhelming and I realise most of us are safe as I write this, for which I am grateful. But the Ukranians and Syrians deserve it too!

The levels and ferocity of sexual violence are vomit making. No humanity in the soldiers. Disgusting - the worst of humanity.

I don't understand. What's going on between Poland and Ukraine to cause this hardening of hearts?

I do think from Poland's perspective its important to remember that Ukrainian grain flooding into the EU is having a really quite negative impact on Poland's own agricultural sector. I generally support Ukraine pretty much entirely but it does feel a little bit like biting the hand that feeds you.

So it's over grain imports?

It is. It’s a trade war in the middle of a real war.

And it’s not just Poland. It can get ugly.

Yes, it's over grain imports.

As far as I can gather, Ukrainian grain flooded Polish, Romanian, Bulgarian etc markets last year since well, they couldn't export it to Africa.

This caused a lot of trouble with the Polish, Hungarian, Bulgarian etc farmers.

The EU put a ban on Ukrainian grain imports because of this. Now it's been lifted but the problem still remains, so several countries are unilaterally and possibly illegally still keeping the ban. (not sure about the illegal bit).

So many Ukrainian farmers have all the grain that's being harvested and nowhere to send it, while surrounding countries' farmers are resentful if Ukrainian grain comes to them.

Russia is fanning the flames of conflict ofc in the surrounding countries.

Transporting the grain to other countries' ports and onwards to Africa will apparently cut into the profit margins so heavily that it's no longer viable, though some countries (Latvia I ~think~) is doing some heavy duty grain transport.

It's become very bad tempered and frankly dangerous politically.

The Polish PM called Ukraine a drowning nation and has said they will stop the VERY considerable support they've given to Ukrainian refugees next year - health, permits to work, housing support etc.

Ukraine is considering taking the blocking countries to EU courts.

I do see that Ukraine has a real problem for its farmers, but agreed with @Igotjelly about biting the hand that feeds you, and extremely unwise for relations between the countries, whom Ukraine relies on in many ways.

In the meantime, Africa suffers high food inflation.

Again, why is Turkey allowing Russia to dominate the Black Sea? It must have a knock on impact for their ships too.

So we're playing into Putin's hands. He tried to cause division in Europe with energy and failed. But it's working with grain and the stranglehold he has on the Black Sea.

Because of international law.

The Black Sea is not an inner Turkish sea.

It definitely works to Putin’s advantage but as I was hearing on a podcast recently (either Ukraine the Latest or War on the Rocks I think) the key thing about liberal democracies and genuine alliances like NATO is they can fall out and still be allies.